Silver close to breaking through $30

[henrysmedford]

It is only down because the dollar is best-looking horse in the glue factory.

[DCR Jerry]

It is only down because the dollar is best-looking horse in the glue factory.

Quote of the year!!

[theo]

It is only down because the dollar is best-looking horse in the glue factory.

I agree +1

Of course with lower prices I will probably have a slightly more difficult time locating physical silver in my area. People were far more willing to sell when silver was at 40.

[henrysmedford]

It is only down because the dollar is best-looking horse in the glue factory.

I agree +1

Of course with lower prices I will probably have a slightly more difficult time locating physical silver in my area. People were far more willing to sell when silver was at 40.

I like how British say it the best looking horse at the knacker.

And I love the term knackered
1. exhausted; tired out
2. worn out; no longer working, esp after long or hard use

[SilverStateGOP]

Theo,

Yes, agreed, adjusting your plan does make sense based on new information.

I'm pretty much all in NOW so, my truck is already loaded

Informed and worthy "All in" is a perilous and brave place to be; ask any poker player with trip aces and only one of em showing. Be very careful and good luck.

SSGOP

[barrytrot]

No need to be careful. If it goes down temporarily, oh well, because there is zero chance it stays below 31 forever. Zero chance. And I've got plenty of time to drink up the option premiums in the meantime Even at 29.14 the premium is still over 1% per month on 31 options

If it goes into the 28's that will change of course, but then it will be more like 1% every quarter, still a PROFIT

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Just saw a print of $28.96 as I write this.

Barry, the paper games you are playing is bound to bite you in the butt... sooner or later.

[barrytrot]

Just saw a print of $28.96 as I write this.

Barry, the paper games you are playing is bound to bite you in the butt... sooner or later.

They are no different than buying at a certain price. If it falls to 1 I just wait. Just like if I had a pile of silver rounds.

There is no difference except for the fact that with "paper" I can rent my "shares" out every month for an income even when the price is down.

I don't see how it is a "game". I don't believe you understand how options work.

[68Camaro]

This note is about physical, not trading paper.

Like Barry I didn't predict silver dropping back below $30, but I had a caveat (and I think Barry did also). When the doubt "balance" between Europe and US results in the Euro being discounted and sell-offs occuring into the USD, PMs as priced in USD will drop. When coming off of a local high a 30+% drop in price for a short time has happened over and over for silver. We touched 37, and sub 30 (short-term) was still possible at that point. I believe these will be temporary opportunities. Sometimes so short that they are difficult to take advantage of.

We have a real one now at hand as you can truly order ASEs at 28.xx plus $2.69. It may drop another buck or two, or more if something collapses. Or it may stop here and reverse. Back in December, while it technically touched 25 and change, it was at the wrong time of day and so short-lived that the best deal I could get for physical (and I'm talking physical here) was 29 and change. So I'm planning on pulling a new chunk of powder, recently obtained, to do some quantity buying before the close of the week - as always subject to what the market does.

As another caveat, when a major collapse does happen in Europe (and it could be months to years away), if the US is still running and perceived as solvent, we will see a massive flight to the USD short-term and therefore the sub 20 price that some people here dream of. If/when that happens, it will be incredibly short-lived. Lke a capsizing boat having all the passengers rush to the other side (which will then tip the whole thing over).

It could be months or years. But we could have one of those imminent. So watch closely.

[SoFa]

There is an increasing likelihood the support at ~26 will not hold. And from there, it could be a long ways down.

Selling covered calls is problematic for two reasons:
1. The trade is directional.
2. Until this week, the option premiums had been going down for months to the point they were too cheap.

[barrytrot]

1. What does "the trade is directional" mean? I'm confused on that one as, of course, it's directional, but I don't see how that's problematic?

2. Define "too cheap"? How many percent should they give you? On at-the-money it was well over 2% for this month's calls. That's quite reasonable. And the premium on one dollar out of the money was well over 1%.

Naturally with silver dropping 10% or 20% that makes 1% "too cheap", but that's only if you are looking at it from a very short term perspective.

My average for "picking correctly right away" is something that basically rounds down to zero

But my average for long term gains rounds up very close to 100% and I will be shocked if that's not the case here as well.


And for the record: I've never had a "forced sale" or "stop loss" or anything else triggered. I've always been in control of my investments for years, and that includes all of 2008 (where I did lose overall, but by the end of 2009 I was UP including 2008).


Selling covered calls and/or short puts has been money in the bank for me for years and until the premiums aren't spectacular (from my perspective) it will always be.

[Copper Catcher]

It is only down because the dollar is best-looking horse in the glue factory.

When folks start talking blabbing about the dollar versus other currencies I like to remind them that this is like making the comparison that we are the tallest midget in the room!

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Just saw a print of $28.96 as I write this.

Barry, the paper games you are playing is bound to bite you in the butt... sooner or later.

They are no different than buying at a certain price. If it falls to 1 I just wait. Just like if I had a pile of silver rounds.

There is no difference except for the fact that with "paper" I can rent my "shares" out every month for an income even when the price is down.

I don't see how it is a "game". I don't believe you understand how options work.

The paper trades you are placing/playing is the "game". Paper options contracts are not the same as owning physical. I don't understand how you could think that.

When the system crashes, you are not going to be able to cash in on those puts and/or calls if they are in the money. These are phony markets. Take away the manipulation and skynet computer algos and there is no market.

You're right, I'm not an options expert. I have no interest in paper pushing. I'll stick with my phyzz. That said, I wish you good luck.

[NHsorter]

I suspect that Barry has some phyzz as well. You gotta be diversified. Sure, with paper, you could lose it all the system collapses. With physical, someone could rob you of all of it just the same. There is risk in anything. That is why diversification helps. If you are making money on an investment, that is a good thing. I have some money in paper. I don't have any investments of any sort that are large enough to be an unacceptably large loss. If someone somehow located and stole all of my physical, my kids would still eat. If someone EMP'd all the financial records and paper trails, my kids would still eat.

[barrytrot]

I realize that if the system collapses I will lose all paper. I have plenty of physical, but I'm hoping that I also don't have to survive that as my life would be worse in ways I can't even begin to comprehend

I'm soft, I'll admit it I like being about to use the Internet to make reservations for my favorite restaurant any time I want

I also like air conditioning

Several other things


I am working on the assumption that "life is horrid after the collapse anyway" so why worry beyond that. I am *positive* it is terrible. And I'm positive that I can't do a thing about it.

[Z00]

I am working on the assumption that "life is horrid after the collapse anyway" so why worry beyond that. I am *positive* it is terrible. And I'm positive that I can't do a thing about it.

Perhaps the better statement would be "I can't do anything myself to prevent it"
Then you have to ask yourself what you have done to prepare for it.
You may make it a little less "horrid" with some planning to survive it. Whatever "it" may be.

[barrytrot]

Nope. As soon as I can't get gourmet cupcakes 6 days a week if I choose I'm not worried about fighting beyond that.

My exit strategy for that is to get into a prayer circle until the marauding raiders come and take me away.

[mbailey1234]

It's probably heading for $20 since me and a buddy shot off most of the rest of the "powder" this morning on a monster box! $28.83 + $2.39 and free shipping. They wouldn't do this on brand new 2012's but would on some older boxes they had.

I think I am averaged in at a good price for the "long haul". Although I don't rely on charts I'm thinking there is nice inverted head and shoulder's pattern evolving and considering things are looking a little over sold why not buy a little and flip it on a $3 bounce? Where else can you get a 10% return in a month?

Anyone else pulling the trigger yet?

[NHsorter]

Where did you buy that Monster box? I was thinking of doing the same with a friend and that seems like a good deal (low premium, free ship).

[OneBiteAtATime]

The LCS does ASE's and CMLs for 2.50 over. Couldn't resist today. $31.70

[TheJonasCollegeFund]

The LCS does ASE's and CMLs for 2.50 over. Couldn't resist today. $31.70

My guy stays sold out as soon as ANYTHING comes in. Rough crowd!

[mbailey1234]

Where did you buy that Monster box? I was thinking of doing the same with a friend and that seems like a good deal (low premium, free ship).

I have dealt with APMEX enough they do throw you a bone every now and then. You would have to call and if you want 2012's they wanted $2.89 over. We snagged a box of 08's that they obviously had bought back from someone. If you call they will always (usually) ship free on orders over $3000.

[Jonflyfish]

Barry has some pretty darn smart ideas. Not sure why some folks battle the financial trades instead of being open and thoughtful to such workable ideas. In fact, I'm surprised the "silver is my religion" folks here don't sell puts over and over and over and over and over.....

Cheers!

[mbailey1234]

Barry has some pretty darn smart ideas. Not sure why some folks battle the financial trades instead of being open and thoughtful to such workable ideas. In fact, I'm surprised the "silver is my religion" folks here don't sell puts over and over and over and over and over.....

Cheers!

Tell me how to keep it off of Uncle Sam's radar and I'm all for it. I used to sell options in the ag commodity markets during college and made good money at it. Only thing is when it's a time to get the real job you can't make it on a 20% return on a $25K investment. Takes money to make money and I'm not about to play these markets if I can't be in front of screen. Good way to lose your butt! If you've got the cash I agree you can sell time all day long in the options and make some decent money.

[Rosco]

I backed up the Truck an it's full A Tonka Truck it fell over