Shorting the market

[mbailey1234]

Wanted to get some feedback from the "pros" out there.

I decided today since I am having difficulty finding something to invest in long term (besides PM's) that it was time to short the market. I see no reason for a sustained rally to take off with the present day situation we are in as a whole.

Bought 300 shares of DOG today at $35.50
Just bought another 400 shares of PSQ at $26.25.

I think if QE3 comes sooner than later this may be a bad move...

Would like to see 10% returns on each and then cash out but we will see what comes.

Thoughts???

[NHsorter]

First, I am NOT a pro. But this amateur thinks it's a good move. Dow is stupid high right now in my opinion. I don't know if I would hold out for 10%, maybe a little less. Of course my opinion on the 10% is subject to change as the landscape/news changes. Good luck to you!

[barrytrot]

There are LOTS of companies that are still growing.

And one thing that shorts don't consider is the impending HYPER inflation that I believe all agree will happen one day. Tomorrow? Six Months? 10 years? Not sure, but one day it will happen and then a company "worth" $10 per share is suddenly "worth" $20 per share over night despite having done nothing.

That said, shorting can definitely make you some money and doing it this way reduces the INFINITE risk of "real shorting" so it's a safer move. Still, I always go by one overriding philosophy -> the government will keep printing more worthless money!

[NHsorter]

I agree with you Barry. But for a short term play, I think that shorting the Dow right now is not a bad move. I would expect a drop in stock prices before the real inflation kicks in. If any big event occurs, people are going to sell. It just feels like people are just sitting there with an itchy trigger finger waiting to click sell.

[barrytrot]

I agree the DOW looks like Nigeria is about to look against the USA B-ball team, so if you are into trying to time the market then this has the feel of a pretty darn good time.

My record with timing the market is something like 2 and 197 though so I'll just stay with my long term plays. Some of which are under water now, and all started underwater

[68Camaro]

Personally, I'm out of the market except for physical backed auditable funds like phys, pslv, cef. The markets are rigged - arguably if not proveably - and unless you can play at their level (e.g. JFF but not me) you are playing with fire. Good luck to you all. I'm out of it.

[barrytrot]

Obviously the markets are rigged -> i.e. humans control them. And humans will seek their own best interest.

That actually makes things safer if you are interested in safer picks. I've mentioned this before and I'm tired from "spin" so I won't re-state it, but suffice it to say that the markets are a very viable source of moderate (10%ish or so) income on a predictable yearly basis.

[68Camaro]

Humans aren't supposed to control markets - markets are supposed to be "free", able to respond to the ebb and flow of true commerce, but they aren't free (any more). Organizations that make the rules are now able to control the direction and value of market trends. It's not a zero sum game anymore because the people playing the strings can print money and have relatively infinite resources. The market is now a true gambling institution, where the house makes the rules and the house always, ultimately, wins overall. The market lets a few small dogs edge in and lap up the spills, and for those that can make a bit of money in controlled markets - the card counters of the market, and there are clearly those that can do it - (I'll take their word for it), go for it. I don't know the rules, can't do the card counting, and so It's not for me.

[barrytrot]

Yikes, if humans didn't control them, what would? The whole thing has to have an element of speculation, i.e. you are betting that the FUTURE for the company you buy is bright not just "today". Therefore, who else can speculate but humans? Machines? Not yet and when they can I can refer you to a few movies that say that won't be beneficial either!

"Anymore" -> People have always pulled the strings and that's the only way it could work.

[68Camaro]

Methinks you know what I mean, but are being deliberately diversive, and I'm not interested in that conversation, sorry. I've said my peace, you've said yours. We'll let the market take it from here...

[barrytrot]

Methinks you know what I mean, but are being deliberately diversive, and I'm not interested in that conversation, sorry. I've said my peace, you've said yours. We'll let the market take it from here...

Hm, I may not have understood you. If not, sorry.

The market = people

That's plain and simple

[fb101]

I only see one thing that doesn't fit.
Don't put a cap on your profit; Hope for 10%, but if you reach 10% and things are still moving your way hang on and enjoy the ride.
Drag the stops with you but not too closely.

[mbailey1234]

Well it took a while but after adding to my positions a couple of times I have bailed out of everything today. Was up about 8.6% on my total investment after commissions so I am happy. That money can sit tight for another year if needed. The stock market will probably tank tomorrow since I'm all out now.

[mbailey1234]

The stock market will probably tank tomorrow since I'm all out now.

Oh well guess you wins some and lose some.

Never fails the day after I bail this happens.

[barrytrot]

Of course "the market" around here means metals and Silver went up today

[Whinstone]

I thought QE3 was already here in the way of 50 billion plus each month....except they call it QE forever now.