by 68Camaro » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:46 am
Good thoughts JFF and engineer. I appreciate your insights. "it's no secret..." to thinking people, but the typical person on the street has no idea. I've been trying to wake up some of my friends and neighbors and it's not easy. I'm having some success finally; some are starting to become aware of what's going on for the first time, and are shocked, and frightened. But that just illustrates that most people still have no clue and are ill-prepared.
It appears to me we are near a tipping point which could come from several places (or more than one), but I allow the possibility that there could be one more short shallow cycle of attempted stimulus, which when found to be ineffective, will itself be the tipping point.
I believe the Fed is looking for a knob to turn, but I think they are afraid to turn anything at this point except continue to prop up the Euro and buy Treasuries. Huge amounts of "cash" were absorbed into the system and large parts of that were made illiquid (if that's a word) for the purpose of offsetting losses. But there are still huge cash balances waiting to leak out. The government is already trying everything indirect that they can outside of the real estate market to pump cash in - supported by the Fed buying the government debt. Trillions in subsidies, unemployment, state grants, student loans, easy car loans, easy credit cards. As I note above, I tend to think "something" else will be attempted that will be pitched as "safe", and it might cause a brief bump up in the markets and some MSM talk of recovery again, but it will backfire and either start the domino train itself, or else indirectly lead to loss of confidence that will have the same effect. And that's only if Europe doesn't kick the domino over first.
On another note, I think we're past the "black swan" stage. Collapse of some sort is inevitable, and the only question to me is which of several possible directions will it come from. Is that unknown specific event a black swan, when we know something is coming? Not something I'm really into debating.
In the game of Woke, the goal posts can be moved at any moment, the penalties will apply retroactively and claims of fairness will always lose out to the perpetual right to claim offense.... Bret Stephens
The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it. George Orwell.
We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. Ayn Rand.
OK, maybe I was over thinking it. Guess I should just calm down and enjoy the ride instead of trying to time every wiggle!
