Realcent.org

by **mbailey1234** » Wed Mar 28, 2012 8:55 pm

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/ ... -props.jsp

According to these guys the Obama basically has it wrapped up!

If I thought the birth certificate issue had any teeth left I may be putting a few hundred down on Hilary at 100:1

by **mbailey1234** » Wed Mar 28, 2012 10:17 pm

Hmmmm that's weird. They have had the political odds posted for weeks but they pulled them off right after I posted that link. Keep checking, I'm sure they will be back soon.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012 (Times shown in Central Standard Time)
Time CompetitorOdds Result9:00p2012 US Presidential Election - Winning Party
(This Prop is Closed for Betting)

Democratic Party
-220

Republican Party
+200
9:00p2012 US Presidential Election - Republican Nominee
All wagers have action, others on request (This Prop is Closed for Betting)

Mitt Romney
1/25

Rick Santorum
10/1

Newt Gingrich
50/1

Ron Paul
50/1
9:00p2012 US Presidential Election - Odds to be Next President
All wagers have action, others on request (This Prop is Closed for Betting)

Barack Obama
5/11

Mitt Romney
21/10

Rick Santorum
25/1

Newt Gingrich
75/1

Ron Paul
75/1

Hillary Clinton
100/1

by **mbailey1234** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 4:10 am

mbailey1234 wrote:http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

According to these guys the Obama basically has it wrapped up!

Nothing has changed here in the last months. Obummer has about as big of a lead as he has ever had on the sportsbooks.... :thumbdown:

These guys haven't been on the wrong side of a presidential election since I started watching it back with Bush/Gore.

by **Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:08 pm

I belong to a profession/trade that makes huge bets everyday, but not in casinos. I am a roofer.

I do not understand the point spread:

2012 US Presidential Election - Winning Party
7:00p

Democratic Party -325

Republican Party +250

Someone explain it to me. +250 is a good thing, right? Or, is it the other way around???

by **mbailey1234** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 3:20 pm

You would have to risk $325 on the democratic party to make (net) $100.

A small $100 bet on the Rep. party would net you $250.

Pretty dam big difference.

by **Tourney64** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 4:38 pm

LAS VEGAS ODDSMAKER WAYNE ALLEN ROOT PREDICTS ROMNEY LANDSLIDE
http://www.winningedge.com/handicappers/wayne/1/

Root said in a column posted on FoxNews.com:

“I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. Electorally it won’t even be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.”

by **mbailey1234** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:10 pm

Guess we will know in a couple of days. I didn't see a link on that site to purchase a ticket though. The site I posted has the actual odds. This guy doesn't have something to gain by sending people the wrong way does he? If he owns the site where you bet why would he want to tell you to buy the winner?

This will be the scene if bummer wins. :lol:

http://i42.tinypic.com/116jkia.jpg

by **theo** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:34 am

The problem with the oddsmakers or any predictive model is that they are dependant on accurate data. I believe the polling data is more baised and contradictary this election than any other. As they say, "garbage in garbage out." For example the national polls have Romney and Obama basically tied while the state polls show an Obama advantage. Also stories about increased Republican enthusiasm and Romney's advantage with independents contradict all the polls and suggest a Romney victory.

Several recent polls in supposedly solid Obama states also seem to seem to buck prevailing wisdom. A poll in Maine gives Obama 49% of the vote; polls in Oregon, Pennsylvania and Minnesota each give Obama 47% while a recent Michigan poll gives the President a mere 46%. Although Obama will likely win most of these states, this string of sub-50% polls definitely suggests luke-warm support. Even though Obama strategists scoff at Romney's attempt to expand the electorial map to MN and PA, Bill Clinton's presence at two Minnesota rallies, Biden's presence in PA along with increased ad buys in both states suggest that Romney/Ryan has team Obama rattled.

The (admittedly conservative) National Review article (see below) makes an interesting case for a potential Romney victory in PA. It basically argues that PA outside of Philly has been trending Republican in recent years and that Democrats must run up increasingly large totals in Philadelphia to counter Republican advantages in the rest of the state. The problem is the rest of the state is growing in population while Philadelphia is flat. To retain PA Obama must come close to matching his net gain of 480,000 Philly votes in 2008. The author further argues that the Obama campaign took PA for granted early and was caught flat-footed after the debates. They spent too much time and money in North Carolina when they should have focused on shoring up PA.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/mitt-s- ... tml?page=1

by **Engineer** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:18 am

The polls (or even the sportsbook odds) can also be used as tools of manipulation. The Romney side, for instance, could release poll numbers showing themselves further behind than they are in an effort to drive Republicans to the polls while encouraging the Democrats to stay home because their guy is a shoe-in.

by **Klark Cent** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:49 am

Tourney64 wrote:LAS VEGAS ODDSMAKER WAYNE ALLEN ROOT PREDICTS ROMNEY LANDSLIDE
http://www.winningedge.com/handicappers/wayne/1/

Root said in a column posted on FoxNews.com:

“I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. Electorally it won’t even be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.”

On August 6, 2012, Root speculated that Barack Obama attended Columbia University as a foreign exchange student citing his "gut instinct" as evidence

by **Klark Cent** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:50 am

Tourney64 wrote:LAS VEGAS ODDSMAKER WAYNE ALLEN ROOT PREDICTS ROMNEY LANDSLIDE
http://www.winningedge.com/handicappers/wayne/1/

Root said in a column posted on FoxNews.com:

“I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. Electorally it won’t even be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.”

He was the 2008 Libertarian Party vice-presidential nominee. Root began his career as a professional sports handicapper, based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

It seems that he made that prediction in early October.

He closes by saying "And If I'm wrong- God help the United States of America."

What a tool.

by **Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:01 am

mbailey1234 wrote:You would have to risk $325 on the democratic party to make (net) $100.

A small $100 bet on the Rep. party would net you $250.

Pretty dam big difference.

I am surprised with the point spread. Everything else I am looking at calls it an even race. Of course, maybe the bookies know who is doing maintenance on the voting machines..... Obama's most vocal supporters, the SEIU!!! In every case where early voters cry out about "malfunctioning" voter machines... the machines always default to Obama! :twisted:

by **Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:14 am

Klark Cent wrote:
Tourney64 wrote:LAS VEGAS ODDSMAKER WAYNE ALLEN ROOT PREDICTS ROMNEY LANDSLIDE
http://www.winningedge.com/handicappers/wayne/1/

Root said in a column posted on FoxNews.com:

“I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. Electorally it won’t even be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.”

He was the 2008 Libertarian Party vice-presidential nominee. Root began his career as a professional sports handicapper, based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

It seems that he made that prediction in early October.

He closes by saying "And If I'm wrong- God help the United States of America."

What a tool.

Root has been audited by the IRS many times now. He is crying foul, saying the IRS audits are being used as a weapon against him by Obama.

by **Double3** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:33 am

Sounds like easy money to me.

by **mbailey1234** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:57 am

Right or wrong I just put $400 of my online poker earnings on Romney. Will clear $1200 if he wins! I know it's not going to be easy for him to win but with a 3:1 payback I feel it is worth the risk. The fact that these guys usually get it correct and they are way in favor of Obummer does bother me a bit though!

by **mbailey1234** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:16 pm

Had someone ask me about a referral code if you open up an account with them... Guess mine is P24D3B7 if anyone is interested. :thumbup:

by **Double3** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:39 pm

First thing this morning it was
D -500

R -350

About 1/2 hour later it was. (I got in here)
D -450

R -325

Now it is
D -350

R -275

by **Double3** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:42 pm

mbailey1234 wrote:Right or wrong I just put $400 of my online poker earnings on Romney. Will clear $1200 if he wins! I know it's not going to be easy for him to win but with a 3:1 payback I feel it is worth the risk. The fact that these guys usually get it correct and they are way in favor of Obummer does bother me a bit though!

It's legal to play online poker for real money now?

I know they cut it off a few years ago.

Maybe I'll use my winnings on this to lose on poker. :lol:

by **mbailey1234** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:28 pm

Well serves me right for going against what the bookies were saying...(that's my wifes view right now anyway) :oops:

I'm not even the least bit worried about the wager but I am sure glad we are heavy on PM's and low on cash in the bank right now. When I tucked my boys in tonight I was hoping their future would hold more opportunity than I feel there is going to be for them at this point. We were honestly pretty far down over the slippery slope to be able to bring it back but I still had hope.... until about 5 minutes ago anyway... :cry: