Are we really still in a bull market?

[scyther]

I often hear on coinflation about how gold and silver are in their 12th (I think?) straight year of a bull market, or how we're in a long consolidation phase before prices go to record highs again, but that doesn't seem to be happening. How long can it go without seeing a new top, or at least an increase in average price, before the bull market is considered over? Silver was close to $49 in May of 2011. It hasn't been over $37 in over a year. Seems like the bull ended a long time ago to me.

[blackrabbit]

May seem like it but:

1) Transnational currency wars are still in effect
2) Billionaires and governments are still buying gold
3) Debt levels of all types are more unsustainable than ever

If by next fall there is no price spike then I might start reconsidering things, but I think another run at 50 and 2000 will hit by spring.

[Diggin4copper]

Gold/silver is still the only investment I feel somewhat safe with. Where else can I invest 100 bucks a month and feel safe with it? savings accounts are crap, I am afraid of the stock market, Whiskey gives me a headache, and scratch tickets are just plajn dumb...

[Morsecode]

Hey now, back up fella...don't knock scratch tickets! We have a $10 game here in CT called "Silver & Gold" that's every bit as good as your dollar cost averaging method

[scyther]

Gold/silver is still the only investment I feel somewhat safe with. Where else can I invest 100 bucks a month and feel safe with it? savings accounts are crap, I am afraid of the stock market, Whiskey gives me a headache, and scratch tickets are just plajn dumb...

I think PMs have more of a downside than dollars. Dollars are guaranteed to depreciate, but not very quickly. PMs were much lower just a few years ago. They could be again.

[shinnosuke]

Fiat currency always goes to zero while PMs have never done so.

[Saabman]

Fiat currency always goes to zero while PMs have never done so.

+1

[inflationhawk]

If you use the dollar today to buy stock in a diversified multinational stock fund (whether it be a mutual fund, ETF, or a group of stocks of your own choice) you are not holding fiat currency, you have ownership in a company that can do business in any currency of the day. That being said hard assets have their place in a portfolio as well. Putting all your money in gold/silver will likely not increase your standard of living over time, you may keep up with inflation and see the nominal value go up, but those new currency units won't necessarily buy you more than when you started.

[shinnosuke]

If you use the dollar today to buy stock in a diversified multinational stock fund (whether it be a mutual fund, ETF, or a group of stocks of your own choice) you are not holding fiat currency, you have ownership in a company that can do business in any currency of the day. That being said hard assets have their place in a portfolio as well. Putting all your money in gold/silver will likely not increase your standard of living over time, you may keep up with inflation and see the nominal value go up, but those new currency units won't necessarily buy you more than when you started.

Good points. However, name for us a fund, or if you wish, a group of stocks of your own choosing which you can liquidate into something other than fiat currencies. Unrealized gains may be substantial, even spectacular, but when one cashes out into debased Federal Reserve Hiney Wipes or any other major currency of Europe or Asia, one is left with less purchasing power. We are approaching the 100th anniversary of the fraudulent foisting of the flippin' FRN upon the hapless Amerikan citizenry. The USD purchasing power has fallen a breath-taking 97% in that time. Gosh, I get warm and fuzzy feelings just thinking about that. All major nations are in a debt-crazed death cycle. A race to debase. What will be left when they crash? Oh yeah, that crazy stuff you can't eat.

Do I believe in PMs? Apparently more than this rich guy:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charlie-munger-civilzied-people-dont-buy-gold-only-pre-holocaust-jews-sew-it-their-garments

[inflationhawk]

Is there a currency out there that is not a fiat currency? Gold and silver can be used for trade, but so could stock securities as well. For the most part, Gold and silver must be converted to fiat currency as well to make purchases. Sure, you could barter with it, but society as a whole uses fiat currencies. Holding fiat currency over the long term is silly, you want to either protect your purchasing power by buying gold and silver, or use the money productively to produce goods or services that increase your wealth. Holding gold or silver does not produce anything and actually results in resources being utilized to protect it. There is absolutely a good reason to hold gold and silver to protect yourself from debasement of fiat currency, just don't expect to grow your real inflation adjusted wealth over the long term.

[beauanderos]

just don't expect to grow your real inflation adjusted wealth over the long term.

ummmm.... Sean? I think I'll have to take you to task on this part of your rationale. In a sense, investing in precious metals (at least the "worth" component) is akin to a pyramid scheme. Those who got in early (and we are not to the point, yet, that it's "too late") will benefit immensely as the value of their holdings skyrocket upon the backs of all the eventual johnnies-come-lately's. THOSE individuals will keep pace with inflation, but the members here who have been holding for a number of years? Way ahead of the game, no arguing that point. Myself, for instance? I've seen 800% gains since I started with silver at $4.50. No way you can tell me inflation has increased that much in the same decade span of time.

[inflationhawk]

In the short term that is true and I don't disagree. Gold/silver prices could overshoot on the downside too in the short term if actual inflation doesn't meet expected inflation. Making gold/silver as much speculation as a hedge against inflation in the short term. Hence another reason that gold/silver shouldn't be the only thing you use your fiat currency for, unless you don't mind the short term volatility.

By the way, silver is really much more an industrial metal and that makes its price movements harder to tie to any one thing. I lumped it in with my examples, but really I probably shouldn't have. Note the fluctuation in the gold silver ratio itself. The fact it's not constant inherently means there are different drivers for the price of each.

[beauanderos]

In the short term that is true and I don't disagree. Gold/silver prices could overshoot on the downside too in the short term if actual inflation doesn't meet expected inflation. Making gold/silver as much speculation as a hedge against inflation in the short term. Hence another reason that gold/silver shouldn't be the only thing you use your fiat currency for, unless you don't mind the short term volatility.

By the way, silver is really much more an industrial metal and that makes its price movements harder to tie to any one thing. I lumped it in with my examples, but really I probably shouldn't have. Note the fluctuation in the gold silver ratio itself. The fact it's not constant inherently means there are different drivers for the price of each.

your analysis is good, and could be depended upon for making decisions were it based upon an evaluation of free market forces which, unfortunately, we do not have. Prices and ratios will fluctuate, displaying increasing volatility, until the point that a real-time actual physical silver shortage is made evident. One year? Five years? Ten years? All depends on whom you believe. It seems to me that silver, in spite of its industrial demand, is seeing pricing increases due more to investor demand than industrial uses. non sequitur here... I'd rather be early to the party than late.

[justoneguy]

... I'd rather be early to the party than late.

This is the earliest that I've ever been late.

[mbailey1234]

Every time we get close to support I load up a little extra. Yeah maybe it was overbought quite a bit back at the upper 40's but long term I feel the trend is up. I'm not looking for gains that will over due inflation by a huge margin, just something that will at least keep up and something that is NOT paper right now. I still play some on paper but 80% + is tucked away and in my possession in some form.

[slvrbck]

Gold has seen positive results of at least 5% annually for at least the past ten years. I think over that span the average annual return is something like 19.2% If thats not a bull I dont know what is. when we get two years back to back of negative returns we'll talk.

[scyther]

Gold has seen positive results of at least 5% annually for at least the past ten years. I think over that span the average annual return is something like 19.2% If thats not a bull I dont know what is. when we get two years back to back of negative returns we'll talk.

I certainly don't deny that there was a bull market. I just wonder if it's over.

[beauanderos]

Gold has seen positive results of at least 5% annually for at least the past ten years. I think over that span the average annual return is something like 19.2% If thats not a bull I dont know what is. when we get two years back to back of negative returns we'll talk.

I certainly don't deny that there was a bull market. I just wonder if it's over.

The bull market for gold will never be over. Because those who equate a price rise in gold, in and of itself, detached from any corresponding relationship to the ever-accelerating demise of fiat, are spreading just that.... "bull"... they have no true understanding of the market while viewing it as an asset class divorced from the reality of the contracting worth of the dollar. The dollar is destined to die. Do you realllllly expect it to recover? Serious? Dollar shrinks, gold expands. Simple corollary when not manipulated. What some might occasionally witness and construe as meaningful is sentiment. Is there a gold rush? Or a gold flee?

[neilgin1]

Gold has seen positive results of at least 5% annually for at least the past ten years. I think over that span the average annual return is something like 19.2% If thats not a bull I dont know what is. when we get two years back to back of negative returns we'll talk.

I certainly don't deny that there was a bull market. I just wonder if it's over.

its only beginning friend. that said, could we do a sharp turn to the downside. say $26 to $15?

certainly, something most peculiar is happening in that bucketshop called Comex, open interest is unusually high, in the march 85k contracts, and silver seems locked in a trading range, as this made for CNBC drama called "The Fiscal Cliff" plays out.

Now lets say these grocery store clerks we call leaders, go off the "cliff"?....what then?

Lets say there is some sort of "agreement"...what then?....either way, its seems to me, there's an impending bank prop trading desk set up to do a bum's rush to the downside ON THE BOARD, meaning the futures. When you have QE fiat at play with a bank prop trade desk, and you're in collusion with other bank trading desks, its very easy to muscle around 85,000 contracts....you can even "paint the tape", ram the price below weekly support at 26 and MAKE silver "look bearish" to a tech analyst. COMEX silver is like a cash register to these humps, has been for YEARS!

but when all is said and done, we're going to punch thru 50 and trade to the 70-80 area........the next big up is 120-135, thats where the "Hunt High" rests in 2012 dollars.....then the hyper spike, when the dollar comes to its inevitable conclusion, said spike $250-500....at that point, 500 of WHAT?...paper?

Silver, in 2012/13 is not an investment, its currency insurance, much like car insurance. One stacks physical silver at their primary dwelling, with all necessary security. An investment in my opionon is acreage with both hardwoods, pasture and water, springs...

Many say keep ready "cash" around for an emergency, i agree, but its not paper i stash...oh no, the paper IS BAD, $100 face value boxes of nickels is what i keep, each roll is a $2 bill, except the metal value equals the denomination......be quick though, they are going to be debasing the nickel VERY soon into some steel clod, its been in cmtte for a spell, thank God these guys are so laden with paperwork and bureacracy.....but there will be some conclusion reached before months end.

plenty fine if you disagree, thats freedom, and i say, let freedom reign...what i wrote is how i'm playing my hand, and have been for quite a while. be well, neil