joemac wrote:
In market farming the 30k and acre is before labor, but 50% gross margins (or 15k profit) is attainable if you manage it correctly. I never said it was easy, in fact it is hard. \\.
I disagree a bit here. Its very easy, you just need to know what your doing. Id also point out I knew a grower doing a bit better then you mentioned who told me she lost 505 or so to her costs... I taught her how to cut that down to less then 20%. she was using all off site materials! Of course she did have an additional acre to harness for this.
I would be very hesitant to invest in large tracts of farmland actually. I think they MIGHT become very valuable, but there are many factors here. For instance, I HIGHLY doubt that our commodity crops will remain so. Soy will be the first to die. It WILL die unless regulation crushes the alternatives. There are groups now using trees and having yields 10 times higher then soy, with a fraction of the inputs. They grow various nuts that actually are superior nutritionally. the trees are much more stable over variations in climate and weather etc. I know two of these folks through the net. The market is just now starting to open for this. Once the rest of the farming community understands this, and sees it in action expect soy to fade away FAST.
the SAME will happen for corn. You realize most of the corn we grow as a nation goes to animal feeds? Farmers dont care AT ALL if they are feeding corn or whatever, they want the cheapest that gets the job done. Point being is a range of crops can replace the nutritional stats on corn, far surpass it in fact. We will see these alternative growing means replace animal feeds first, but due to costs, replace much of the staple base products in processed foods as well.
I know how silly this sounds even to any farmers here. Its an ignored field. that will indeed change though from basic market forces unless the gov comes in for their industry buddies and crushes it. So I would be hesitant as a non farmer to think of farmland as an investment myself... This field will move and change in coming years.
Including what we call farmland! I say this with seriousness! We expect our farmlands to produce more and more each decade. and as I said above atleast for some needs this still has a massive amount of room to expand. But what if non arrable land becomes arable? It WILL. Again unless the gov gets in the way. I can grow a range of commercial crops in an area considered non arable! And if the markets for the alternatives I referred to above develop then many more. All on CHEAP land with very low taxes that basically no one wants. Areas covering many states this can be done without irrigation. Im doing this NOW! I know many others building up set ups doing this NOW. Its literally only a matter of time, and I suspect once they tide shifts it will be fast and catch even most farmers entirely off guard. (and REALLY piss off malthusians)
So what happens in the bread basket to farmland prices if suddenly alternative crops literally make commodity crops obsolete? Or if millions of acres of orchards and the like open up across currently ignored land? We are talking about areas that without massive irrigation or other issues are simply not on the table today. Yet with the right knowledge Imn telling you for a fact because Im doing it we have areas larger then our current "productive" areas that CAN come into production... and will unless gov stops it. Farmland prices will plummet, and Im in this field and Id be very hard pressed to say when this shift will happen. It IS happening but only just. Id say within 20-30 years we will have an entirely different looking ag system. But like I said its starting now, so who knows maybe in 5 it will have proven itself to the right folks and we see a sweeping change much faster. Profit margins are drastically wider with such systems by the way.
I do expect farmland to hold its value or rise in price in the short term, but as farming shifts, and it WILL.... this could fade away in a season... By conventional logic my freaking yard is impossible. Yet simple science and adjusting what is already there multiplied what is possible. Its no different then the first guy who figured out tilling let roots grow better, or that irrigating lead to healthier plants. We adjust the variables as farmers for the crops to grow. Well for whatever reason farming ignored most of the variables that you can adjust. (Id never convince a farmer of this if I tried, I have tried- it is indeed true though) the farming community doesnt appear to even register the things Im talking about yet, past a whimsical aberration. Understandable, many in the general field ARE whimsical. There is SCIENCE here though and hundreds of us spread over the planet doing truly paradigm changing work. A smaller portion of this subset has folks already taking it commercial, with most of us still hammering out the models. Myself for instance I dont have the land for a commercial set up... yet. Im also further perfecting my models but I can tell you with assurance I have a range of crops that with the right means are reliable and productive on non arable non irrigated land. I know dozens like myself and a few of the first variety already going commercial... Most going commercial I know are small scale holders. I know of one group however with growers in several states who are already making headway into fullscale production. How long until they gain traction when their growers are doing so well? I couldnt say... but when they and others do... it will change what we think of as farming. Mark my words. Unless of course the gov does something to stop it.
On a side note, we always hear of the starvation in africa. (and several other places growing is hard) There are groups in africa that are using such methods that have higher yields, that are more reliable with less inputs... Somehow this is ignored by all these international groups who claim to want to feed africa by forcing them to farm with methods that simply dont fit their economy. Namely commodity farming is being pushed on them. It does give higher yields, but it costs much more and is less productive or reliable then these other systems. In fact these models work better in third world nations with cheaper labor. They wont really work with a good range of crops in our own country by the way, but more then enough to put commodity farming as it stands o its head.
Im sure I sound absolutely batty, especially to the farmers here. I know what Im talking about though. think twice before you buy farmland solely as an investment unless you intend to farm or homestead it. That said, land can be farmed in relatively passive ways if done right! I know a guy in texas (or read his blog rather) that inherited a few thousand acres and set up a pinestraw farm. He just paid someone to plant a tree already known to do well there, and say back. Then later paid farmers to harvest it. He does pretty well, although doesnt make a bunch per acre. I know of another guy who "farms" hardwood trees. He bought forested lands, and selectively harvest the trees, in such a way he gets a yearly income, does NONE of the work himself past picking what to do (which is work, but not terribly time consuming) and does very well. Many other similar thing Id consider stable, but I definitely wouldnt put faith in standard arable lands that you rent for commodity crops, unless your going to farm it yourself perhaps. This market will change drastically in our lifetimes.
by Mossy » Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:52 pm 
