40% and warnix question from long time sorter

[wagsthadog]

Hi all!

wags here- with a question for the general bullion buying population-

I know about almost all the apects and pros and cons of 40% halves and war nickels, how they have heretofore sold below melt due to the difficulty in smelting, refining, etc-

My question is, will we ever see 40% and warnickels sell for straight melt? I use 90% as an example- Before 2013, lots of investors sniffed at it and thought that it would last forever- then it was revealed that supplies are actually limited, and the premium skyrocketed (relative to the usual premium for it).

They're not making any more 90%....but theyre also not making any more 40% or warnix, so I was wondering if anyone thinks we will ever get to the point where people buy and sell them at straight spot, without the usual percent under melt-

Maybe we're already there? I dunno, I havent dealt with 40% or warnix in a while for the above reasons

Will it take some sort of wake-up call where somebody has trouble getting a bag of either that sets off a frenzy?

wags

[scyther]

Provident Metals recently started selling 40% halves for over melt. Always used to be 45 cents under, now I think it's 15 over. As more are apparently still being melted, the supply is still decreasing, so logically I think it will happen eventually for war nickels. Could be decades though, I have no idea.

[68Camaro]

40% is near melt right now

[beauanderos]

I think 40% will sell at melt soon... warnix should then take sole occupancy of the role of the redheaded stepchild when that happens. When silver moonshots and all junk becomes MUCH scarcer, war nickels will have their day in the sun... and fetch a premium to melt.

[scyther]

I think 40% will sell at melt soon... warnix should then take sole occupancy of the role of the redheaded stepchild when that happens. When silver moonshots and all junk becomes MUCH scarcer, war nickels will have their day in the sun... and fetch a premium to melt.

It seems to me the opposite happens... when the price goes lower (like it is now), premiums go up. When it goes up, they should go down right? I believe I remember you (or maybe someone else) saying that when it hit the $40-$49 range in 2011, a lot of junk was melted... which necessarily would only happen if it sells for less than melt.

[beauanderos]

I think 40% will sell at melt soon... warnix should then take sole occupancy of the role of the redheaded stepchild when that happens. When silver moonshots and all junk becomes MUCH scarcer, war nickels will have their day in the sun... and fetch a premium to melt.

It seems to me the opposite happens... when the price goes lower (like it is now), premiums go up. When it goes up, they should go down right? I believe I remember you (or maybe someone else) saying that when it hit the $40-$49 range in 2011, a lot of junk was melted... which necessarily would only happen if it sells for less than melt.

but you're assuming the silver supply is steady, whereas I feel that variable is not a constant. Throws off the equation. I think when the price rises rapidly, you DO have more sellers willing to take a quick profit (hoping to buy back on a subsequent dip). More sellers means more inventory for the dealers. No shortage of inventory means the dealers can just sell it at the rapidly rising price of melt and not worry about a premium. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out again, once the price appears to be firmly in unmistakable uptrend.

[SilverDragon72]

Got a quote from my LCS regarding Warnix....

1.45 each. Fair deal or no?
Obviously will fluctuate some with change in spot price....

[Rosco]

Melt value is $1.61 so $1.45 is good as far as I'm concerned.

I only have 15 an do not intend to sell but if I needed money 16 cents spread would be close enough for me on a coin of only 35% content

[Chief]

I've sold 40% on here for melt, shipped. They sold in minutes, with multiple members showing interest. I'd say 40% is valued at melt by buyers. People want physical silver, especially at these lower prices.

[Lemon Thrower]

i think war nickels and 40% halves have very different metal composition. i like the halves much better.

right now, wholesale prices have barely budged. but there will be a substitution effect. 2 bucks over for 90% and 40% for under spot won't last long. the spread will compress, probably a bit in both directions. 40% is a lot less liquid so it will probably take a month or two to catch up.

[Treetop]

Maybe a more important question isnt how well it will sell in relation to spot but premiums in relation to 90% or .999.

Because I can see 40% at melt as it is now, but 90% used to be around melt and is now over. I didnt run the math or anything but it is something to think about.

[Lemon Thrower]

i would think 40% would always be a cheaper substittue for 90%.

[SilverDragon72]

Melt value is $1.61 so $1.45 is good as far as I'm concerned.

I only have 15 an do not intend to sell but if I needed money 16 cents spread would be close enough for me on a coin of only 35% content

Well, I may end up picking up a bunch of these. I like having silver in various size and quantity. Everything from 1 ouncer bars, to 90 percent dimes and quarters....and now possibly war nickels.

I've managed to find just a few during my nickel box searches, but I kinda want more!

[Slaphot]

I was thinking about this today actually. I think that warnix and 40% will sell for spot or more in the not to distant future. There is only so much silver to go around when prices start to really take off. That would mean junk would be selling at a hefty premium.

[agmoose]

Went by my LCS today and bought some 40%, which I never do, but they were 1976 proof halves and quarters. Had to pay a small premium, but figure for proofs its OK. 10x face.

Picked up a few bucks fv in 90% at 23x. Not great, but not horrible, and there were a couple proof 1962 quarters in that.