What will these two coins be worth when.....?

[pennypicker]

I'm a person who likes to look to the future as are many of you. Recently I went to a coin show and purchased for $32 each an uncirculated '25 Peace dollar & an '03 ASE. Silver at the time was $29 an oz. So here's my question: each coin is of similar value today but what will it cost to buy each of these coins when silver reaches $100 an oz--and it will some day. I'm wondering will the premium margin increase on ASE's beyond the ranges of today and will Peace dollars maintain their premiums above melt or will common date Peace dollars lose their "numi" premiums and be valued only for their .77 oz of silver when silver reaches $100 an oz.

So when silver reaches $100 an oz what will the (retail) value of each of the below coins be worth? Will each still be worth the same as each other or will $100 silver create new dynamics that will significantly differentiate the value of these coins from one another? My guess: Unc common Peace- $90 Unc common ASE- $107

[Robarons]

At $100 oz silver You will see people cracking PCGS holders to sell Silver at $100. Silver Eagles and Merry Christmas rounds 1978 will be going in the same pot for the same price.

Look at it this way- a 1921 Morgan will be $77 when Silver is $100. As a Dealer I would want to sell them for like $85 each because I can automatically melt them at $77. Think anyone is going to buy a 1921 Morgan for $85? Nope. In the pot they go for $77. Numis disappears as bullion goes up, in some cases they even go down if the economy is bad.

We saw a 'taste' of this occurring when silver hit $50/oz recently and people were cracking silver proofs out- numis was destroyed and coins were going for melt. Like wise all Morgans were $38.50 each as well- so any 'numis' morgan up to $38.50= 1921 Morgan

[Treetop]

I think it depends. If spot shoots up very fast I think robarons is correct. If it has stabilized at 100 for awhile I think the premiums come back.

[Engineer]

I think it depends. If spot shoots up very fast I think robarons is correct. If it has stabilized at 100 for awhile I think the premiums come back.

+1

If there's a slow climb, I'd expect premiums to be spot plus X%. With silver at $100, generic rounds that go for a couple bucks over spot today would likely command a $5 premium.

With a fast climb, people will be wanting to sell while they can...and premiums would fall.

[pennypicker]

At $100 oz silver You will see people cracking PCGS holders to sell Silver at $100. Silver Eagles and Merry Christmas rounds 1978 will be going in the same pot for the same price.

Look at it this way- a 1921 Morgan will be $77 when Silver is $100. As a Dealer I would want to sell them for like $85 each because I can automatically melt them at $77. Think anyone is going to buy a 1921 Morgan for $85? Nope. In the pot they go for $77. Numis disappears as bullion goes up, in some cases they even go down if the economy is bad.

We saw a 'taste' of this occurring when silver hit $50/oz recently and people were cracking silver proofs out- numis was destroyed and coins were going for melt. Like wise all Morgans were $38.50 each as well- so any 'numis' morgan up to $38.50= 1921 Morgan

Excellent insight Robarons. This was exactly the type of thoughtful response I was hoping to receive. Anymore prognosticators out there?

[Robarons]

I am not too seasoned in this area but I have heard it mentioned a lot, so heres another good point:

A rise to $100oz from current prices is roughly 4x spot price. Well if you held gold in the early 2000's you saw gold rise from $300-$400 to $1600, thats a 4x rise in spot. Well St.Gaudens $20 piece in 2000 to currently did not rise 4x in respect to spot. I think a ungraded decent example can be had for $1700-$1900 currently, where as I think these were $800-1000 in early 2000's? Same goes for numis gold eagles or Indians. I have heard many dealers say 'if they would have bought bullion vs numis they would have done alot better' Apparently one guy bought gold numis in the mid to late 1980's and has yet to break even if not show a small profit