Who Let the Dogs Out?

[barrytrot]

It always amazes me when people that (I assume) own silver are happy when it goes down.

I know you are thinking, "because then I can buy more."

But you know what generally seems to go with the "I hope my own silver value goes down crowd?" -> It never quite goes down ENOUGH. It goes to essentially $25 and they are "I'm really backing up the truck at $20". If it hits $20 my money is on them saying, "I'm REALLY backing up the truck at $15". At $4 they would be like, "as soon as silver is completely free I'm backing up the truck."

Meanwhile there are thousands of methods of investing to make a profit. Ironically none of them include being happy about your own investment losing value. And ironically none of them are benefited by claiming that you will enter at yet another multi-year low point.

I'm not the best investor but my gains including 2008/2009 are pretty reasonable (nothing like DEL5x or whatever but reasonable!) and I don't see how hoping for my own failure would be a better path

When I own something I'm hoping they declare it to be "mother's milk" the next day

[AGgressive Metal]

Meanwhile there are thousands of methods of investing to make a profit. Ironically none of them include being happy about your own investment losing value. And ironically none of them are benefited by claiming that you will enter at yet another multi-year low point.

I think bullion stackers are a unique crowd because we are investing for a very particular set of events, ie currency devaluation/hyper-inflation, which we think we know is eventually coming. Therefore, we think we know that our assets will eventually go up a great deal, so any discount in the meantime is welcome. Its like if you had an inside tip that a certain company stock was going to $100 in a few years, you'd rather buy it at $20 than $35.

[barrytrot]

Meanwhile there are thousands of methods of investing to make a profit. Ironically none of them include being happy about your own investment losing value. And ironically none of them are benefited by claiming that you will enter at yet another multi-year low point.

I think bullion stackers are a unique crowd because we are investing for a very particular set of events, ie currency devaluation/hyper-inflation, which we think we know is eventually coming. Therefore, we think we know that our assets will eventually go up a great deal, so any discount in the meantime is welcome. Its like if you had an inside tip that a certain company stock was going to $100 in a few years, you'd rather buy it at $20 than $35.

THAT I agree with AGressive. Feeling that ANY CURRENT PRICE IS CHEAP is very sound logic.

But I was speaking about those that always say they are waiting for a price that is essentially "spot minus 5". No matter what spot is they are waiting for 5 less. I've seen it a lot here and it always baffles me.

[Engineer]

I like to see some movement between FRNs and PMs because that movement presents opportunity. To be able to take advantage of it, however, you can't be "all in" to one asset class.

Some people use swings in the gold/silver ratio to increase wealth over time, but you can include FRNs in the equation as well.

As an example of capital allocation (the percentages would vary by your individual needs):
40% Au
40% Ag
20% FRNs

Whenever the balance gets X% out of line, you simply re-balance it.

[barrytrot]

I like to see some movement between FRNs and PMs because that movement presents opportunity. To be able to take advantage of it, however, you can't be "all in" to one asset class.

Some people use swings in the gold/silver ratio to increase wealth over time, but you can include FRNs in the equation as well.

As an example of capital allocation (the percentages would vary by your individual needs):
40% Au
40% Ag
20% FRNs

Whenever the balance gets X% out of line, you simply re-balance it.

I've always gone "all in" on things I was firmly convinced of and I've lost ONCE in my entire life doing that. Whenever I "balanced" or anything similar my record is probably more like 50/50.

I'm going to continue to go all in when I believe that's the best option. It's gotten me this far

[68Camaro]

I'm trying to find the source of a 2012 newsletter or blog prediction - made mid year when the market was lower, predicting a new market high during spring of 2013, then warning to watch for a PM drop, soon afterwards would be a huge market crash of 60-90% in the May to September time frame. Meant to file it. Still looking for it.

I found the quote in part. At least a source. Roger Wiegand. The extract I found doesn't contain any words about a PM drop being a harbinger of a market crash - so maybe that was a different analyst. At any rate...

From August 21, 2012

...
The global stock markets will suffer a 10-12% correction in Q-1 2013 but not a crash. The harder crash is more likely to come in May 2013 or September-October 2013. The so-called Big One could take down stocks 50-90%. A -90% wipeout would not be unheard of... it has happened before.

As said above, I haven't been able to find the source of the complete prediction / warning I recall from last year about a market top to be followed by a PM price smash, with market crash to follow in the May-Oct range. But it looks like both have now happened. Wiegand (above) does predict a market crash in this time frame. Just FYI.

[shinnosuke]

I'm trying to find the source of a 2012 newsletter or blog prediction - made mid year when the market was lower, predicting a new market high during spring of 2013, then warning to watch for a PM drop, soon afterwards would be a huge market crash of 60-90% in the May to September time frame. Meant to file it. Still looking for it.

I found the quote in part. At least a source. Roger Wiegand. The extract I found doesn't contain any words about a PM drop being a harbinger of a market crash - so maybe that was a different analyst. At any rate...

From August 21, 2012

...
The global stock markets will suffer a 10-12% correction in Q-1 2013 but not a crash. The harder crash is more likely to come in May 2013 or September-October 2013. The so-called Big One could take down stocks 50-90%. A -90% wipeout would not be unheard of... it has happened before.

As said above, I haven't been able to find the source of the complete prediction / warning I recall from last year about a market top to be followed by a PM price smash, with market crash to follow in the May-Oct range. But it looks like both have now happened. Wiegand (above) does predict a market crash in this time frame. Just FYI.

We are fascinated by what he says. Please let us know if you find anything else.

[Copper Catcher]

For a little comic relief you can go to Cramer’s sound board and hit: Buy, Buy, Buy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100000942

[SilverEye]

I put my money in on Saturday, will put more money in today if I can find any locally.

[68Camaro]

I found the quote in part. At least a source. Roger Wiegand. The extract I found doesn't contain any words about a PM drop being a harbinger of a market crash - so maybe that was a different analyst. At any rate...

From August 21, 2012

...
The global stock markets will suffer a 10-12% correction in Q-1 2013 but not a crash. The harder crash is more likely to come in May 2013 or September-October 2013. The so-called Big One could take down stocks 50-90%. A -90% wipeout would not be unheard of... it has happened before.

As said above, I haven't been able to find the source of the complete prediction / warning I recall from last year about a market top to be followed by a PM price smash, with market crash to follow in the May-Oct range. But it looks like both have now happened. Wiegand (above) does predict a market crash in this time frame. Just FYI.

We are fascinated by what he says. Please let us know if you find anything else.

Haven't yet found the original quote, and even then I recall being left in the dark as to the reason behind the claim, but I believe this thread has captured the gist of the cause for the warning - there is a historical pattern at work:

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23278