It's Different This Time

[beauanderos]

Recently a spate of pundits have appeared in print and on talking heads channels, each solemnly proclaiming that recent price cascades across the boards in all four precious metals officially pronounce that the Gold bull market, or Silver bull markets, are dead. As Mark Twain was once heard to exclaim (and you could include Arnold Schwartzenegger here as well), "reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

So, too, it should be said, are ominous pronouncements that the bull run in precious metals is over, regardless of whether such proclamations emanate from Mt. Olympus from the deities themselves, or merely from such God wannabes as GoldmanSachs, or those who intentionally release misleading rumors of the imminent sale of Cypriot gold reserves.

Yes, as we've all borne painful witness, those with virtually unlimited means at their behest can move the markets sharply with immense paper selling of ostensibly tangible physical gold and silver. Look the other way and just accept this as gospel, that the paper price equals true price discovery of physical, as ... well, isn't it perfectly reasonable to suppose that more than an entire year's worth of gold production would be dumped in a number of hours on sequential days? What other motive could there be for such tactics? Surely the sellers intended to optimize their profits in the process, right?

This piece is not meant to point fingers at putative criminals, when corroborative evidence (according to the courts and CFTC) is lacking or hard to prove. It is merely intended to make you employ critical thinking. The entire motive of the recent horrendous manipulation is to utterly demoralize silver and gold longs who are not fully convicted that there is no path (long term) for precious metals to trod (in the face of global quantitative easing) other than upwards. On a short term basis, however, they will do their worst to convince you otherwise.

They would have you believe that economies worldwide are upon the verge of recovery; that dollars, yen, pounds, and euros are all healthy and strong, and that those who hold barbarous relics to preserve their purchasing power do so in folly. "This time is different," they will tout... and yet nothing has changed in the dynamics of why silver and gold have been sound, real money investments during the past decade, and will continue to be so in the years to come.

Baron Rothschild is credited with having stated "buy when there is blood in the streets." http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/contrarian-investing.asp Or, to paraphrase Warren Buffett "buy when others are fearful, sell when others become greedy." http://www.cnbc.com/id/44108052 The value, the intrinsic true worth of physical precious metals has not been destroyed, although their paper price surrogates have been decimated. What has been ruinously injured is investor confidence, that accumulating precious metals is a slam dunk.

Just as they intended.

Listen to those who counsel you to sell all of your silver and gold at your own peril. There is more afoot than meets the eye. Shy away from using margin to acquire these assets, unless you are prepared to lose those funds. Those in power know where the stops are, and they can easily empower massive naked shorting to trigger them, much to your dismay. Those who stack physical metals, not engaging in transitory paper ploys to accrue ephemeral fiat profits, have nothing to fear... their prescience will pay off handsomely in the future.

This time is not different.

Don't let a blip on a long-term chart catalyze you into waves of panic-induced selling. Although at times it can appear a sudden cardiac arrest victim has been lost, you'd be surprised at how fast they can be resuscitated simply if enough joules are applied. Silver and gold, platinum and palladium, are more valuable than precious gemstones. They are jewels that will glitter in perpetuity, long after memories of a once great reserve currency has been laid to rest within its well-deserved grave.

[Lemon Thrower]

i think there is a decent possibility of a further drop followed by an ultimate quadrupling or more.

jesse's cafe has some interesting speculation on the drop . . . basically that is prelude to something big, possibly a comex default and cash-out.

[scyther]

When JFF predicted a 200-400% increase after the slide was over, I thought it was impossible. But if it gets down to $9 an ounce again, a 200% increase is the least we can ask for! 400% would still be great, though.

[pennypicker]

Recently a spate of pundits have appeared in print and on talking heads channels, each solemnly proclaiming that recent price cascades across the boards in all four precious metals officially pronounce that the Gold bull market, or Silver bull markets, are dead. As Mark Twain was once heard to exclaim (and you could include Arnold Schwartzenegger here as well), "reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

So, too, it should be said, are ominous pronouncements that the bull run in precious metals is over, regardless of whether such proclamations emanate from Mt. Olympus from the deities themselves, or merely from such God wannabes as GoldmanSachs, or those who intentionally release misleading rumors of the imminent sale of Cypriot gold reserves.

Yes, as we've all borne painful witness, those with virtually unlimited means at their behest can move the markets sharply with immense paper selling of ostensibly tangible physical gold and silver. Look the other way and just accept this as gospel, that the paper price equals true price discovery of physical, as ... well, isn't it perfectly reasonable to suppose that more than an entire year's worth of gold production would be dumped in a number of hours on sequential days? What other motive could there be for such tactics? Surely the sellers intended to optimize their profits in the process, right?

This piece is not meant to point fingers at putative criminals, when corroborative evidence (according to the courts and CFTC) is lacking or hard to prove. It is merely intended to make you employ critical thinking. The entire motive of the recent horrendous manipulation is to utterly demoralize silver and gold longs who are not fully convicted that there is no path (long term) for precious metals to trod (in the face of global quantitative easing) other than upwards. On a short term basis, however, they will do their worst to convince you otherwise.

They would have you believe that economies worldwide are upon the verge of recovery; that dollars, yen, pounds, and euros are all healthy and strong, and that those who hold barbarous relics to preserve their purchasing power do so in folly. "This time is different," they will tout... and yet nothing has changed in the dynamics of why silver and gold have been sound, real money investments during the past decade, and will continue to be so in the years to come.

Baron Rothschild is credited with having stated "buy when there is blood in the streets." http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/contrarian-investing.asp Or, to paraphrase Warren Buffett "buy when others are fearful, sell when others become greedy." http://www.cnbc.com/id/44108052 The value, the intrinsic true worth of physical precious metals has not been destroyed, although their paper price surrogates have been decimated. What has been ruinously injured is investor confidence, that accumulating precious metals is a slam dunk.

Just as they intended.

Listen to those who counsel you to sell all of your silver and gold at your own peril. There is more afoot than meets the eye. Shy away from using margin to acquire these assets, unless you are prepared to lose those funds. Those in power know where the stops are, and they can easily empower massive naked shorting to trigger them, much to your dismay. Those who stack physical metals, not engaging in transitory paper ploys to accrue ephemeral fiat profits, have nothing to fear... their prescience will pay off handsomely in the future.

This time is not different.

Don't let a blip on a long-term chart catalyze you into waves of panic-induced selling. Although at times it can appear a sudden cardiac arrest victim has been lost, you'd be surprised at how fast they can be resuscitated simply if enough joules are applied. Silver and gold, platinum and palladium, are more valuable than precious gemstones. They are jewels that will glitter in perpetuity, long after memories of a once great reserve currency has been laid to rest within its well-deserved grave.

One heck of a post. There are some very deep thinkers on this board, myself (not included), and that is why I enjoy reading these threads on a daily basis so that I can get informed as well as educated at the same time.

[SilverDragon72]

Recently a spate of pundits have appeared in print and on talking heads channels, each solemnly proclaiming that recent price cascades across the boards in all four precious metals officially pronounce that the Gold bull market, or Silver bull markets, are dead. As Mark Twain was once heard to exclaim (and you could include Arnold Schwartzenegger here as well), "reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

So, too, it should be said, are ominous pronouncements that the bull run in precious metals is over, regardless of whether such proclamations emanate from Mt. Olympus from the deities themselves, or merely from such God wannabes as GoldmanSachs, or those who intentionally release misleading rumors of the imminent sale of Cypriot gold reserves.

Yes, as we've all borne painful witness, those with virtually unlimited means at their behest can move the markets sharply with immense paper selling of ostensibly tangible physical gold and silver. Look the other way and just accept this as gospel, that the paper price equals true price discovery of physical, as ... well, isn't it perfectly reasonable to suppose that more than an entire year's worth of gold production would be dumped in a number of hours on sequential days? What other motive could there be for such tactics? Surely the sellers intended to optimize their profits in the process, right?

This piece is not meant to point fingers at putative criminals, when corroborative evidence (according to the courts and CFTC) is lacking or hard to prove. It is merely intended to make you employ critical thinking. The entire motive of the recent horrendous manipulation is to utterly demoralize silver and gold longs who are not fully convicted that there is no path (long term) for precious metals to trod (in the face of global quantitative easing) other than upwards. On a short term basis, however, they will do their worst to convince you otherwise.

They would have you believe that economies worldwide are upon the verge of recovery; that dollars, yen, pounds, and euros are all healthy and strong, and that those who hold barbarous relics to preserve their purchasing power do so in folly. "This time is different," they will tout... and yet nothing has changed in the dynamics of why silver and gold have been sound, real money investments during the past decade, and will continue to be so in the years to come.

Baron Rothschild is credited with having stated "buy when there is blood in the streets." http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/contrarian-investing.asp Or, to paraphrase Warren Buffett "buy when others are fearful, sell when others become greedy." http://www.cnbc.com/id/44108052 The value, the intrinsic true worth of physical precious metals has not been destroyed, although their paper price surrogates have been decimated. What has been ruinously injured is investor confidence, that accumulating precious metals is a slam dunk.

Just as they intended.

Listen to those who counsel you to sell all of your silver and gold at your own peril. There is more afoot than meets the eye. Shy away from using margin to acquire these assets, unless you are prepared to lose those funds. Those in power know where the stops are, and they can easily empower massive naked shorting to trigger them, much to your dismay. Those who stack physical metals, not engaging in transitory paper ploys to accrue ephemeral fiat profits, have nothing to fear... their prescience will pay off handsomely in the future.

This time is not different.

Don't let a blip on a long-term chart catalyze you into waves of panic-induced selling. Although at times it can appear a sudden cardiac arrest victim has been lost, you'd be surprised at how fast they can be resuscitated simply if enough joules are applied. Silver and gold, platinum and palladium, are more valuable than precious gemstones. They are jewels that will glitter in perpetuity, long after memories of a once great reserve currency has been laid to rest within its well-deserved grave.

+3 for this post! It's a good one!

[50centsaver]

Beauanderos you are a great writer IMO. Thank-you so much for your eloquent post. I hope hope hope you are right.

I recently wrote a little on this forum re those who believe there will be a lengthy deflation period where commodities/G & S will be headed way down, and that cash will be king, for who knows how long. Economics is not my strong point, but what's happened recently may be the start of it. I was tempted to get rid of 1/2 my metals, but decided I'll hang onto everything and hope I live long enough for them to go to the moon. I hope I don't regret my decision as I am not rich, and have probably invested too much in G & S. These are interesting if not frustrating times.

I too always appreciate this forum/everyone who participates. I would like to see those who seem to want to pick fights to tone it down, but where can you go in life where everything's perfect. Party on metal lovers. I hope all of our dreams come true.

[68Camaro]

This has been said many times, though maybe not recently, but while the time periods of each may be in dispute there is a large collection of people (both here and elsewhere) that tend to believe in a period where we experience a combination of deflation for some goods and inflation with others, eventually with inflation dominating overall, then a crash of the market and possible a crash of fiat currency. The metal is not for use in any of these, except for dire emergencies. The metal is to move capital to the other side of whatever type of crisis we see. You'll need cash as well as personal stores to get through the crisis - the metal isn't for use then (ideally).

[SilverDragon72]

This has been said many times, though maybe not recently, but while the time periods of each may be in dispute there is a large collection of people (both here and elsewhere) that tend to believe in a period where we experience a combination of deflation for some goods and inflation with others, eventually with inflation dominating overall, then a crash of the market and possible a crash of fiat currency. The metal is not for use in any of these, except for dire emergencies. The metal is to move capital to the other side of whatever type of crisis we see. You'll need cash as well as personal stores to get through the crisis - the metal isn't for use then (ideally).

True. A person would be smart to have a little bit of everything.

[johnbrickner]

I too always appreciate this forum/everyone who participates. I would like to see those who seem to want to pick fights to tone it down, but where can you go in life where everything's perfect.

Agreed.

Once again, I tell you I love this place mostly for all the information that is free shared and the wealth of assistance also freely given. I stand by the feedback I have given and those I have praised. However:

The strength of our community is expressed by the spectrum of life experience our members have. This in turn gives us different thoughts, ideas, expressions, and motivations. Especially good is being able to hear more than one side to an idea of how or why the different ways of the world work. As if we are not getting both sides of the story, we are not getting the whole story. Thank God we all dont agree and believe the world as we see it is the same for all of us. No doubt, if we did we would all be wrong.

I dare to say, any one of us may have an awareness that the rest do not have. Or because of their place in life or former life experience will be able to be the first to see an event or action that will impact us all greatly. There is also a very good chance we will not have seen eye-to-eye with this individual's thoughts or ideas as expressed here on RC. And I would hope we are all better persons than to chase such individuals away because we don't see eye-to-eye with them least they do not continue to freely share and assist the rest of us with their information.

Like it or not, it is the individual differences between us that makes this world what it is. We need to respect and embrace each other and differences between us. How boring it would be were we all the same.

[Copper Catcher]

Comex Default - I have heard this prediction over and over again. I will believe it when I see it happen. This is at least the third time I think folks have claimed it will happen. Personally I hope it does and the “Real” price of silver is discovered

[68Camaro]

I just find it interesting that it's been claimed by some with connections to london that it's no big deal to air freight over a pallet of 1000 oz london bars straight off the comex/CME, which should suggest that round/bar producers should be able to have dependable just-in-time delivery, with no more than a couple of day maximum delay for odd surges in demand. When places like Silvertowne (my thread of the evening) get cleaned out of all basic trademark stock and don't have any new known feedstock bar arriving on any certain dependable date, with multi-week delays and no specific sure promises of order delivery, you have to ask what is causing this issue in the system.