Why gold's historic collapse is not over.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

For your reading pleasure, here is an article I just read. I have no idea if this guy is accurate, or not. I am posting this just for the fun of it. Do your own due diligence (DYODD)!

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/more-los ... rket-51729

More losses coming in the gold market …

Posted By Larry Edelson On Monday, April 22, 2013 at 7:30 am at 7:30 am

Larry Edelson

Millions of investors have been skinned alive in the gold market. They got married to their positions and failed to realize that gold is like any other market. What goes up, must also pullback.

Even some of the savviest investors in the world got killed in gold. Billionaire investor John Paulson lost as much as $600 million in last week’s gold rout and nearly $1.5 billion since gold peaked in 2011.

Another huge investor, David Einhorn also lost big. Ron Paul has lost big. So has billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass. And more.

Even the central banks have been pounded by gold, losing an estimated $560 billion in last week’s gold rout.

That’s just the big investors. It doesn’t count the tens of billions of dollars lost by average investors all over the world.

Fortunately, those following my analysis are not among them. I have been consistently bearish gold for well over a year now, and anyone following my work either avoided huge losses …

Or even better, acted on the more specific advice I’ve given in my paid publications, went short via futures or inverse ETFs on gold, and cleaned up big time.



The Level of Disbelief in Gold’s Correction
Means More Losses Lay Ahead

When investors in any market are in denial about what’s happening, it’s virtually a sure fire sign that the current trend is going to continue.

xxxxx
Millions of investors refused to believe gold could fall so far … so fast.

Why? Because they’ve suspended all semblance of logic and they’ve become so irrational that they can’t see the forest for the trees.

For instance, in gold right now you have three types of investors …

1. Those who believe gold was “ambushed” by big investors who wanted to trash the market and inflict losses on small investors.

But if that were true, then why did all the big investors I mention above lose so much money? Surely, they would have gotten wind of the ambush and been able to avoid a big portion of the actual losses they took, wouldn’t they?

Then there are …

2. The gold investors who believe the gold market is “manipulated” by a combination of big investors, politicians, and central banks set on pushing the price of gold down to “keep a lid on inflation,” or at least the perception that inflation is out of hand.

But if that were true, then again, why did so many big investors take such big losses? And why did central banks lose as much as $560 billion?

Central bankers are not the smartest traders in the world, but they’re certainly not dumb and stupid.

3. And then, there are the gold investors who refuse to believe that there are deflationary forces at work, and they claim that gold has lost touch with reality, and that the current decline in gold therefore represents the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Again, that’s denial, plain and simple. It’s touted by analysts and investors who refuse to believe that a market can — and must — go down, even if it’s just setting the stage for the next bull leg higher.

Look, markets never go straight up year after year as if there’s nothing but blue skies ahead.

The fact of the matter is that the biggest, strongest bull markets are those that correct violently, shake out all the weak and even strong long positions and buyers …

And clear the air for new buyers to come back into the market.

So if you’re a real student of the markets and a real gold bug, then this violent correction that has occurred in the gold market should have been expected, and further, should be music to your ears!

For in the end it is about the best thing that could have happened in the gold market.

It will allow the gold market to refresh itself, to reenergize, and to set the stage for a massive new leg to the upside.

Right now, you should expect a bounce in gold. But as I said in my special Money and Markets column of April 15 [1] …

Gold’s Historic Collapse Is NOT Over

Keep your eyes on the $1,412 and $1,458 levels. One of those two levels should cap any bounce in the gold market.

On the downside, I repeat the key support levels you should be watching:

$1,298.70

$1,244.90

$1,160.90

$1,028.40

$ 993.90

Each of the above levels should temporarily hold once they are hit. But based on my system models, I repeat my warning of my April 15 special column: Gold will likely not bottom until it hits major long-term support at $1,028.

If you’ve acted on any of my suggestions to purchase inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST) … or even the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) for a play on silver’s downside …

Hold those positions!

And most important of all, do not be tempted to buy any gold, or silver, or mining shares, until I give you the all-clear!

Instead, let those who are in denial about gold’s correction continue to get their head handed to them.

When they finally realize that all their theories about gold market manipulation and ambushing, central bank shenanigans to depress the gold price, and more of such conspiracies …

Are nothing but gobbledygook, then gold will finally bottom!

Best wishes,

Larry

Article printed from Money and Markets: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

URL to article: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/more-los ... rket-51729

URLs in this post:

[1] my special Money and Markets column of April 15: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/urgent-h ... next-51718

[beauanderos]

Guy has to write something to sell his newsletter. There is likely a small niche of investors who wish they had followed his "advice" or will begin doing so now... at what could very well be the WORST time to listen to him.

[Verbane]

How can you analyze a market with out at least a glance at the physical product the market is built around? He may as well have been writing about widgets....

Gold’s Historic Collapse Is NOT Over

Keep your eyes on the $1,412 and $1,458 levels. One of those two levels should cap any bounce in the gold market.

His "analysis" didn't even hold up for five days.

[aloneibreak]

larry's article for today...

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/importan ... kout-51761

from the link...

"As for gold and silver right now, the bounce you’ve seen is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The precious metals, and commodities in general, have NOT bottomed.

So please don’t buy yet, and don’t fall prey to the pitches from all the snake-oil salesmen out there who are trying so desperately to sell you metal and mining shares now so they can earn an extra commission.

I repeat my warnings:

Gold will not bottom until it hits major long-term support at $1,030.

Silver will not bottom until it tests major long-term support at the $17 level."


right or wrong, at least he doesnt flip-flop

[Mossy]

Money is not lost on an asset until it is sold.

[Treetop]

The guy might be right about where the prices are going and other factors but Im not sure why he thinks he made a case against manipulation.

[SteelCityCopper]

"And most important of all, do not be tempted to buy any gold, or silver, or mining shares, until I give you the all-clear!"

Charlatan? Well, the good thing about the markets is you have a 50/50 shot at guessing right!

[68Camaro]

Wow, imagine the feeding frenzy of the world with silver at $17 again, and gold at $1000. Good grief, I would max out my charge cards and sell my car to buy PMs, if I could actually get physical PMs delivered at those prices. There isn't enough metal in the world to cover the buying frenzy that drop would create. He really doesn't have a clue. A somewhat modest drop fro 28 to 23 created a giant vacuum that sucked up all silver in sight - suppliers are still re-filling their pipelines. And the effect isn't linear - it's exponential. Drop it another $5 and I would be surprised if the comex didn't default. I think that message has gotten back to the people playing this game - I really doubt they are going to do such a single set of radical drops again. I think they'll go back to their smaller games of letting it creep up and then smacking it down, cyclically.

[Copper Catcher]

Ref: Dead Cat Bounce...I'd like Mr. Edelson to answer if Gold is going down then why Germany would want it all back?

In January of this year Germany has asked for delivery back it's 674 tons gold that is being held in both London and New York. Of that 300 tons of gold is suppose to be at the New York Federal Reserve. The Fed says it will take seven years to procure Germany's 300 tons of gold. This is the same Fed that, in its own words, holds some "216 million troy ounces of gold" or some 6720 tons, in its vault 80 feet below ground level. Yea Right!

Oops, someone let the cat out of the bag....

[Mossy]

Drop it another $5 and I would be surprised if the comex didn't default. I think that message has gotten back to the people playing this game - I really doubt they are going to do such a single set of radical drops again. I think they'll go back to their smaller games of letting it creep up and then smacking it down, cyclically.

Hadn't thought of that. Dropping too far is as bad as not killing a runaway increase, from their POV.

[AGgressive Metal]

He said Ron Paul lost big. Ron Paul starting buying at $35/oz. so how is he losing at $1400? Can you imagine how many ounces he socked away with a doctor salary at $35/oz??? RP is probably a multimillionaire, its just not his style to flaunt it.

[scyther]

He said Ron Paul lost big. Ron Paul starting buying at $35/oz. so how is he losing at $1400? Can you imagine how many ounces he socked away with a doctor salary at $35/oz??? RP is probably a multimillionaire, its just not his style to flaunt it.

I remember hearing that Ron Paul supposedly has a net worth of about $5,000,000... but that doesn't include any bullion. I think you can find his portfolio on the internet somewhere, or at least what it was a few years ago. He last a lot of money on mining stocks lately, but no one knows how much actual gold and silver he has.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

I just knew this guy would evoke some strong responses!

Funny thing is, about 3 weeks ago I was at my LCS and the owner told me we would see $17 silver again. I just looked at him with a "yeah, right" stare. Who knows? Maybe these guys know something we don't? Then again, even a broken clock is right twice every day.

PM's have performed very, very well since 2000. They have not, repeat have not, performed as promised by the PM gurus.

I, for one, will continue to hold my position in PMs no matter what happens in the short term.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

He said Ron Paul lost big. Ron Paul starting buying at $35/oz. so how is he losing at $1400? Can you imagine how many ounces he socked away with a doctor salary at $35/oz??? RP is probably a multimillionaire, its just not his style to flaunt it.

I remember hearing that Ron Paul supposedly has a net worth of about $5,000,000... but that doesn't include any bullion. I think you can find his portfolio on the internet somewhere, or at least what it was a few years ago. He last a lot of money on mining stocks lately, but no one knows how much actual gold and silver he has.

What I read about RP during the election campaign was he had no holdings in gold or silver.

[messymessy]

Funny thing is, about 3 weeks ago I was at my LCS and the owner told me we would see $17 silver again. I just looked at him with a "yeah, right" stare. Who knows? Maybe these guys know something we don't? Then again, even a broken clock is right twice every day.

I would agreed that we will see $17 silver again. Can't even remotely guess when.

Two observations. Once everyone knows that something is a sure thing, it is no longer a sure thing. This is shortly followed by a chorus of "but this time it's different," but it never is.

[scyther]

He said Ron Paul lost big. Ron Paul starting buying at $35/oz. so how is he losing at $1400? Can you imagine how many ounces he socked away with a doctor salary at $35/oz??? RP is probably a multimillionaire, its just not his style to flaunt it.

I remember hearing that Ron Paul supposedly has a net worth of about $5,000,000... but that doesn't include any bullion. I think you can find his portfolio on the internet somewhere, or at least what it was a few years ago. He last a lot of money on mining stocks lately, but no one knows how much actual gold and silver he has.

What I read about RP during the election campaign was he had no holdings in gold or silver.

I heard that also (not physical, just stocks). But I also heard he had earlier reported that he did have bullion, and there was no record of him selling it. So apparently he just decided not to report it the second time. And in any case, does anyone really think Ron Paul doesn't stack?

[TwoPenniesEarned]

I think we haven't hit the capitulation point yet. I agree this is a dead cat bounce in the paper price. Yes, physical is hard to get for us. But for white shoe boy scum, the ETFs are a source of physical on which to cover shorts and rehypothecation etc. By convincing people to sell the ETFs they can then redeem the liquidated metals themselves to replace what they've leased out from underneath their allocated clients etc. The gold will never leave the vaults. In a way it is a beautiful crime. Therefore, by virtue of the scum wanting the ETFs physical gold and silver, I think the puke point is definitely yet to come. Perhaps in late May. That would be consistent with the general trend in the metals to sell off in May. I will be ready to re-enter then. Until then, I'm trying to make up my 50% losses on mining shares, having loaded up last May.

[SteelCityCopper]

I think we haven't hit the capitulation point yet. I agree this is a dead cat bounce in the paper price. Yes, physical is hard to get for us. But for white shoe boy scum, the ETFs are a source of physical on which to cover shorts and rehypothecation etc. By convincing people to sell the ETFs they can then redeem the liquidated metals themselves to replace what they've leased out from underneath their allocated clients etc. The gold will never leave the vaults. In a way it is a beautiful crime. Therefore, by virtue of the scum wanting the ETFs physical gold and silver, I think the puke point is definitely yet to come. Perhaps in late May. That would be consistent with the general trend in the metals to sell off in May. I will be ready to re-enter then. Until then, I'm trying to make up my 50% losses on mining shares, having loaded up last May.

So how long does it take following a rise in price before a drop in price isn't considered a "dead cat"? Yes we are approaching summer doldrum territory... I've heard a few here label this as a "dead cat" but we haven't seen another substantial drop since the initial pounding a couple weeks ago. Just curious.

[Mossy]

Funny thing is, about 3 weeks ago I was at my LCS and the owner told me we would see $17 silver again. I just looked at him with a "yeah, right" stare. Who knows? Maybe these guys know something we don't? Then again, even a broken clock is right twice every day.

Well, I know an LCS that wants to buy at $17. Does that count?

[TwoPenniesEarned]

So how long does it take following a rise in price before a drop in price isn't considered a "dead cat"? Yes we are approaching summer doldrum territory... I've heard a few here label this as a "dead cat" but we haven't seen another substantial drop since the initial pounding a couple weeks ago. Just curious.

It is a "dead cat" because it will go back down. I can't say exactly when except for it will happen before fall. To me it's just the notion that the leveraged longs and uneducated GLD and SLV investors have not been completely flushed out. I think if TPTB trigger another big down, we'll get the final puking of shares and the bullion banks will back up the notional truck of fraudulent gold transfer, and take possession of the gold they are currently holding for the ETF's, while buying back their shorts on the drop. Then we resume the uptrend.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

Funny thing is, about 3 weeks ago I was at my LCS and the owner told me we would see $17 silver again. I just looked at him with a "yeah, right" stare. Who knows? Maybe these guys know something we don't? Then again, even a broken clock is right twice every day.

Well, I know an LCS that wants to buy at $17. Does that count?

I guess it does.

I can see it now.. ~ Silver spot is $17, and no one has any for sale. The LCS shelves are empty (until the price goes back up!).

[inflationhawk]

What I read about RP during the election campaign was he had no holdings in gold or silver.

None of us do.

[68Camaro]

Wow, imagine the feeding frenzy of the world with silver at $17 again, and gold at $1000. Good grief, I would max out my charge cards and sell my car to buy PMs, if I could actually get physical PMs delivered at those prices. There isn't enough metal in the world to cover the buying frenzy that drop would create. He really doesn't have a clue. A somewhat modest drop fro 28 to 23 created a giant vacuum that sucked up all silver in sight - suppliers are still re-filling their pipelines. And the effect isn't linear - it's exponential. Drop it another $5 and I would be surprised if the comex didn't default. I think that message has gotten back to the people playing this game - I really doubt they are going to do such a single set of radical drops again. I think they'll go back to their smaller games of letting it creep up and then smacking it down, cyclically.

Per above, I tend to think they're going to let up on the chokehold early today. But, we'll see. If they do, then they've learned that they pushed too hard, too fast. If they slam it down further then personally I believe they've misunderstood the market. PMs still on sale then!

[beauanderos]

Wow, imagine the feeding frenzy of the world with silver at $17 again, and gold at $1000. Good grief, I would max out my charge cards and sell my car to buy PMs, if I could actually get physical PMs delivered at those prices. There isn't enough metal in the world to cover the buying frenzy that drop would create. He really doesn't have a clue. A somewhat modest drop fro 28 to 23 created a giant vacuum that sucked up all silver in sight - suppliers are still re-filling their pipelines. And the effect isn't linear - it's exponential. Drop it another $5 and I would be surprised if the comex didn't default. I think that message has gotten back to the people playing this game - I really doubt they are going to do such a single set of radical drops again. I think they'll go back to their smaller games of letting it creep up and then smacking it down, cyclically.

Per above, I tend to think they're going to let up on the chokehold early today. But, we'll see. If they do, then they've learned that they pushed too hard, too fast. If they slam it down further then personally I believe they've misunderstood the market. PMs still on sale then!

yeah but.... whose still got powder left?