14 May 2013, Silver...where do we go from here?

[neilgin1]

I think it was both Doc Rodee and Country said we go down to the $18-22 area. (correct me if i'm wrong, guys)

silver on the board has been banding again,in the $23-24 area........which is reminiscent of when it was banding in the 28-29 area, earlier this year.

personally I haven't a CLUE, where the board goes next...last thing I bought was a $10 face roll of 1959 Proof Washington's for $322 about two-three weeks ago....why $322?.....the mintage numbers are 1.1 million minted...that's pretty low, and I saw the last bid at 239, so flipped a blow away bid of $357 in there (you like that irony?) and that's where it ended up.....a similar roll of 57 Proofs, (1.3 mln minted) same seller, traded for $276....I thought the 59 was going to trade there too, but...who knows?

I DID read that short interest on comex gold hit all time high...that's USUALLY VERY bullish....but there is nothing "usual" about these days, so what do think?

I think, baring SOME weirdness, we spend all of 2013 between that $18 level and $25...28 tops.....and physical demand stays robust.

but what would "give" first....the board or physical...OR...here's another question, could 2013 be the year of the default?

what EXACTLY would happen to the physical trade if the board did default?....my gut instinct tells me that we go to $40....IF you can find it....would $1000 rolls of ASES be out of the question?

[JJM]

Hi Neil, I hope this finds you well. Highs in the 90's here in my neck of the woods today, first time this year. The wood
ticks will be in 7th heaven, I need to get the tiller through the garden one more time, today should make a dandy deep drying day
allowing for a better final till tomorrow. (I'm glad we didn't put the garden near the woods, this is going to be a BANNER
year for bugs after the drought of last year... As for the garden, at nearly a half acre, it's a beaut!) Potatoes are in,
so is part 1 of the sweet corn. Cherry tree is in full blossum, the heat will send the asparagus upward today. Garlic is
growing like mad too, cold spring with late snow - at least the drought seems to be over finally. One extreme to the other...

Kind of like the PM markets I guess. You mention eBay, I'll mention realcent. There's a tube of BU 2013 ASE's for $575
for sale on here, been there a bit. Participation in this particular sub-forum of the site seems to be down, and the
classifieds are moving slower again. Seems bearish in our immediate AO. Overall, the premiums to spot seem to be declining
as well, as reported here and witnessed on various sites.

PM's have been advertised / pushed far and wide on radio & TV the past few years, along with other pursuits of those "maniacal prepping
zealots" (survival seed banks, liberty safes, etc. etc.) I had business in SE MN recently, and I saw a glossy auction flyer
billed as an "end of the world / prepper" auction...lol Talk radio ads, the proliferation of websites such as survivalblog, etc.,
combined with the things I mentioned above - have led me to believe the whole thing has probably "jumped the shark".

Here's my .02 - take it FWIW. I think silver will continue to band where it's been the past weeks, it might go a few bucks
lower even. It's in the best interest of the banks to have dispirited and depressed physical AG/AU holders though. It's also in
the best interests of the rich (often the same group, but certainly not always...) The bankers want us using their scrip, and the rich
want our metals. Weak hands will sell to strong hands in the months/years ahead. They can't crash the paper price too fast though,
it will most likely result in a messy default if they do. So I think it will band in the lower 20's for the time being (summer?...perhaps longer?).

I think the Fed's mouth piece at the WSJ is signaling at least a temporary decline in QE in the near future, this will eventually
drive the equity markets lower, the commodity markets will be taken down with it. At some point (probably shortly) thereafter,
we'll have another big disconnect between spot and physical prices, and perhaps an eventual default by the COMEX, etc. At which point price
discovery is anyone's guess. What is included and follows will be the bone-crushing deflation that (historically) has always pre-dated
hyperinflation. If folks still have their PM's after the dust settles, they will be ahead of the game. Many won't. I believe 401K's
and other retirement instruments will be "fair game" post market crash, not so sure on metals. Time will certainly tell though. (Although
it wouldn't surprise me if the COMEX NEVER defaulted, give credit where credit is due. Yes, TPTB appear to be THAT good...lol)

The end is still coming, but many will dismiss its even possible long before we get there. I guess we have to jump back over the shark
to get there...haha. The dollar will remain the best looking horse in the glue factory until a global war changes that. Our country has been
at war for over a decade, but I have a feeling we ain't seen nothing yet.... At some point after that the price of our "precious metals"
will be the furthest thing from many of our minds.

So anyway, I see silver trading sideways to slightly lower through the summer. We'll probably see the teens again sometime during 2014. There
will likely be a high gold vs. silver ratio (80:1 or more) to take advantage of during this time. So it's a GOOD time to buy, and could even
get better! haha (For the long haul that is, not if you're trying to make money in the near-term...)

God's Grace is a BEAUTIFUL thing on a day like today.

[InfleXion]

Any number of cases could be made for one way or the other. Really all we can gauge is opinion and hope because nobody truly knows the answer to this.

While I like technical analysis and could use it to paint a very bullish picture, at this point I don't feel it has much merit because any charts are of the paper price. I would want a chart of the physical price to make a more reliable determination, and I don't know how to get at something like that.

Ultimately I keep deferring back to the fundamentals of supply and demand. They haven't really mattered for the last 100 years, but at some point in the future they will have to because mining supply never meets total demand each year. In the absence of sane markets $18 is possible (less than cost of production), but the physical price will probably still be in the high $20s so for me this question is moot. The paper price can and probably will eventually go to zero, but the real market will call bollocks at some point.

I am more concerned with how much I have to pay to get my metal, and the answer at $23 is practically the same as it was at $26, so why would it be any different at $18? If we see $18 imagine how fast the inventory would dry up.

The only way I see the price going lower from here is if the exchanges are ready to pull the plug, since they are already hemmorhaging metal. Otherwise a controlled rise or sideways move from here would help increase their longevity.

[neilgin1]

Hi Neil, I hope this finds you well. Highs in the 90's here in my neck of the woods today, first time this year. The wood
ticks will be in 7th heaven, I need to get the tiller through the garden one more time, today should make a dandy deep drying day
allowing for a better final till tomorrow. (I'm glad we didn't put the garden near the woods, this is going to be a BANNER
year for bugs after the drought of last year... As for the garden, at nearly a half acre, it's a beaut!) Potatoes are in,
so is part 1 of the sweet corn. Cherry tree is in full blossum, the heat will send the asparagus upward today. Garlic is
growing like mad too, cold spring with late snow - at least the drought seems to be over finally. One extreme to the other...

Kind of like the PM markets I guess. You mention eBay, I'll mention realcent. There's a tube of BU 2013 ASE's for $575
for sale on here, been there a bit. Participation in this particular sub-forum of the site seems to be down, and the
classifieds are moving slower again. Seems bearish in our immediate AO. Overall, the premiums to spot seem to be declining
as well, as reported here and witnessed on various sites.

PM's have been advertised / pushed far and wide on radio & TV the past few years, along with other pursuits of those "maniacal prepping
zealots" (survival seed banks, liberty safes, etc. etc.) I had business in SE MN recently, and I saw a glossy auction flyer
billed as an "end of the world / prepper" auction...lol Talk radio ads, the proliferation of websites such as survivalblog, etc.,
combined with the things I mentioned above - have led me to believe the whole thing has probably "jumped the shark".

Here's my .02 - take it FWIW. I think silver will continue to band where it's been the past weeks, it might go a few bucks
lower even. It's in the best interest of the banks to have dispirited and depressed physical AG/AU holders though. It's also in
the best interests of the rich (often the same group, but certainly not always...) The bankers want us using their scrip, and the rich
want our metals. Weak hands will sell to strong hands in the months/years ahead. They can't crash the paper price too fast though,
it will most likely result in a messy default if they do. So I think it will band in the lower 20's for the time being (summer?...perhaps longer?).

I think the Fed's mouth piece at the WSJ is signaling at least a temporary decline in QE in the near future, this will eventually
drive the equity markets lower, the commodity markets will be taken down with it. At some point (probably shortly) thereafter,
we'll have another big disconnect between spot and physical prices, and perhaps an eventual default by the COMEX, etc. At which point price
discovery is anyone's guess. What is included and follows will be the bone-crushing deflation that (historically) has always pre-dated
hyperinflation. If folks still have their PM's after the dust settles, they will be ahead of the game. Many won't. I believe 401K's
and other retirement instruments will be "fair game" post market crash, not so sure on metals. Time will certainly tell though. (Although
it wouldn't surprise me if the COMEX NEVER defaulted, give credit where credit is due. Yes, TPTB appear to be THAT good...lol)

The end is still coming, but many will dismiss its even possible long before we get there. I guess we have to jump back over the shark
to get there...haha. The dollar will remain the best looking horse in the glue factory until a global war changes that. Our country has been
at war for over a decade, but I have a feeling we ain't seen nothing yet.... At some point after that the price of our "precious metals"
will be the furthest thing from many of our minds.

So anyway, I see silver trading sideways to slightly lower through the summer. We'll probably see the teens again sometime during 2014. There
will likely be a high gold vs. silver ratio (80:1 or more) to take advantage of during this time. So it's a GOOD time to buy, and could even
get better! haha (For the long haul that is, not if you're trying to make money in the near-term...)

God's Grace is a BEAUTIFUL thing on a day like today.

oh man....nobody roll your eyes, but I liked your take, but I really liked that last line...SERIOUSLY this

"God's Grace is a BEAUTIFUL thing on a day like today"

only Thing that keeps me going, amen. much love brethren....much love, neil

[neilgin1]

Any number of cases could be made for one way or the other. Really all we can gauge is opinion and hope because nobody truly knows the answer to this.

While I like technical analysis and could use it to paint a very bullish picture, at this point I don't feel it has much merit because any charts are of the paper price. I would want a chart of the physical price to make a more reliable determination, and I don't know how to get at something like that.

Ultimately I keep deferring back to the fundamentals of supply and demand. They haven't really mattered for the last 100 years, but at some point in the future they will have to because mining supply never meets total demand each year. In the absence of sane markets $18 is possible (less than cost of production), but the physical price will probably still be in the high $20s so for me this question is moot. The paper price can and probably will eventually go to zero, but the real market will call bollocks at some point.

I am more concerned with how much I have to pay to get my metal, and the answer at $23 is practically the same as it was at $26, so why would it be any different at $18? If we see $18 imagine how fast the inventory would dry up.

The only way I see the price going lower from here is if the exchanges are ready to pull the plug, since they are already hemmorhaging metal. Otherwise a controlled rise or sideways move from here would help increase their longevity.

much like an alcoholic, when they have to admit their "powerlessness".......i'm at the point, where I have to admit MY powerlessness to ascertain ANYTHING .....coming up , in the future....I don't know.

I don't know.

[shinnosuke]

@neil,
Thanks for starting this thread.

@JJM & InfleXion,
I wish both of you would post more often. The wisdom of your comments is evident.

[68Camaro]

Good posts. I agree with the sentiments. At some point (and we may be there) it becomes impossible to anticipate short term movements. My conviction however is that supply and demand of physical pm ultimately rules.

[reddirtcoins]

With the banking of the shorts... 17 is coming sub 20's for sure.

[neilgin1]

@JJM & InfleXion,
I wish both of you would post more often. The wisdom of your comments is evident.

yeh, I agree wholeheartedly.....everything JJM wrote, I couldn't agree more....I wanted to point by point respond, but I got a ridealong mower, a weed whacker, a chainsaw, and a splitter calling out to my lazy self..."neil, neil, get off the computer, days a wasting".

(ote to preppers, stock up on those cans of orange Gatorade mix...they're worth their weight in gold, PLUS, if somebody gets bad sick, ie diaherrea (sorry) they're good for rehydration.

[SilverDragon72]

Silver goes UP...BUY!

Silver goes DOWN...BUY MORE!

[reddirtcoins]

With the banking of the shorts... 17 is coming sub 20's for sure.

And also withdrawals... Next withdrawal the price will drop.

[InfleXion]

stock up on those cans of orange Gatorade mix...they're worth their weight in gold

Hmmm, I'll have to add this to my list