What is after the $17 - $19 range?

[CtrlAltBernanke]

I've seen some people on here and other forums talk about 17 to 19 dollar silver after it hits $21. What is the next metric after it reaches the 17 to $19 mark? $12 to $15?

[shinnosuke]

And if you believe the price is going to the $17-19 range are you selling now to be able to buy more then?

I know not what others may do, but as for me and my house, we are the black holes of precious metals...the Hotel California of gold and silver. What goes in, never comes out...you can check in any time you like, but you can never leave. (Exactly how many tired old cliches and misquotes of scripture can I get in one post?) I really don't care if I miss opportunities to make a profit. I'm all about crashing the House of Morgan.

[Corsair]

And if you believe the price is going to the $17-19 range are you selling now to be able to buy more then?

I know not what others may do, but as for me and my house, we are the black holes of precious metals...the Hotel California of gold and silver. What goes in, never comes out...you can check in any time you like, but you can never leave. (Exactly how many tired old cliches and misquotes of scripture can I get in one post?) I really don't care if I miss opportunities to make a profit. I'm all about crashing the House of Morgan.

I don't know what I love more...the fact that you turned Hotel California into an awesome metaphor, or that you consider it (and hopefully The Eagles in general) to be scripture.

I will be using the "Hotel California of gold and silver" line in the future. Thank you very much.

[shinnosuke]

And if you believe the price is going to the $17-19 range are you selling now to be able to buy more then?

I know not what others may do, but as for me and my house, we are the black holes of precious metals...the Hotel California of gold and silver. What goes in, never comes out...you can check in any time you like, but you can never leave. (Exactly how many tired old cliches and misquotes of scripture can I get in one post?) I really don't care if I miss opportunities to make a profit. I'm all about crashing the House of Morgan.

I don't know what I love more...the fact that you turned Hotel California into an awesome metaphor, or that you consider it (and hopefully The Eagles in general) to be scripture.

I will be using the "Hotel California of gold and silver" line in the future. Thank you very much.

Let me update my post for you:
I know not what others may do, but as for me and my house, we are the black holes of precious metals...the Hotel California of gold and silver. What goes in, never comes out...you can check in any time you like, but you can never leave. (Exactly how many tired old cliches and misquotes of scripture can I get in one post?) I really don't care if I miss opportunities to make a profit. I'm all about crashing the House of Morgan.©

All rights reserved. Legal blah blah blah.

Go ahead and use anything I write here. It's free use material for one and all.

[InfleXion]

I've seen some people on here and other forums talk about 17 to 19 dollar silver after it hits $21. What is the next metric after it reaches the 17 to $19 mark? $12 to $15?

The series of numbers I have been following over the bull market is 4 -> 9 -> 21 -> 9 -> 49 -> 21. See the pattern? Each of these was a blowoff top that was later tested except for 4 which is where we started in this bull market, and 49 which has yet to be tested.

4 * 2.33 ~ 9
9 * 2.33 ~ 21
21 * 2.33 ~ 49
49 * 2.33 ~ 114.

So I figure we will bounce off 21, maybe dip spike below it but after that off to the races. Time will tell. I am just speculating based on the trend.

And if you believe the price is going to the $17-19 range are you selling now to be able to buy more then?

I doubt we are in a place where you will be able to buy back in for cheaper. Any price drops will be accompanied by a rise in premiums. I bought at $25 and then again at $23 and paid the exact same price out of pocket. IMO now is the time to buy. It could go lower, but it probably won't get much cheaper.

[shinnosuke]

InfleXion, that is some genius level ciphering you did right there. Please post more often.

[barrytrot]

I agree. Naturally he normalized a lot of the results but it is striking information and seems to have an air of accuracy about it!

[Engineer]

I agree. Naturally he normalized a lot of the results but it is striking information and seems to have an air of accuracy about it!

I thought it was sound until Barry seconded the idea.

[barrytrot]

Hey as long as my ideas aren't original they can be sound

[NHsorter]

I like that. Lets hit 21 quick here so we can get to the 49 and the 114. Then I'll sell a bunch at 114 and buy back at 49. I hope you are right! Then it just means that I have balls of steel instead of my current feeling of riding a BIG wave downhill.

[neilgin1]

InfleXion, that is some genius level ciphering you did right there. Please post more often.

I know....I agree...this man, assuming he's a male, has a mind I really appreciate and enjoy.....yes! let me second that....as you CAN, post more often...and if led, give yourself a "name", even if not your factual name, as i'm too lazy to take out InfleXion....though I do call Shinnosuke..."Shin-sensei"....I forgot his name...mines neil........so, bru, post more often..please. fondly, neil

oh ps....where we "go" from here...is one BIG question mark to me.

[Hawkeye]

Great thread. A lot of ineresting information along with some excellent one liners.

And if you believe the price is going to the $17-19 range are you selling now to be able to buy more then?

I know not what others may do, but as for me and my house, we are the black holes of precious metals...the Hotel California of gold and silver. What goes in, never comes out...you can check in any time you like, but you can never leave. (Exactly how many tired old cliches and misquotes of scripture can I get in one post?) I really don't care if I miss opportunities to make a profit. I'm all about crashing the House of Morgan.

Love the Hotel California/Black Hole of pms! Also love attempting to crash the House of Morgan.

I've seen some people on here and other forums talk about 17 to 19 dollar silver after it hits $21. What is the next metric after it reaches the 17 to $19 mark? $12 to $15?

And if you believe the price is going to the $17-19 range are you selling now to be able to buy more then?

I doubt we are in a place where you will be able to buy back in for cheaper. Any price drops will be accompanied by a rise in premiums. I bought at $25 and then again at $23 and paid the exact same price out of pocket. IMO now is the time to buy. It could go lower, but it probably won't get much cheaper.

Well said. That's kind of what I've been thinking too. I can see it going lower, but unless it stays there a long time, I don't see the actual price of physical (especially in the small quantities that I buy) going down too much. I'm sure that all of the costs associated with mining and production aren't going down, and I doubt if demand (industrial or monetary) will be going down too much. You can toy with the paper price all you want, but I don't see actual, physial, available silver getting too much cheaper. Of course, that's just my gut and my gut has been wrong more than once.

[InfleXion]

Thank you all for the kind words. I can't tell you how nice it is to have some positive reinforcement as I am generally accustomed to trolls arguing with me every step of the way on some other boards.

There is also fibonacci resistance at $75 so that is my first wildcard sell target before buying back in at $50, assuming the trend remains intact.

However if we break $50 there is no real resistance (since everyone looking to get out and break even will have done so by $50) so it's anybody's guess after that.

Additionally this is the paper price and it can really do anything. It may very well require a divergence of the physical market for this trend to continue.

[scyther]

I appreciate your analysis, Inlexion, but I'm skeptical. Those numbers probably aren't a coincidence, it probably is the pattern thus far, but that doesn't mean it will continue. Obviously it has to end at some point (since nothing can go up forever) and I think 49 is a more reasonable top than 114. I won't say that it can't go to $114 temporarily, since that's still a little lower than the inflation-adjusted high of 1980, but I really don't think that price can be sustained for very long. It's too far above the cost of production, and I think silver use in industry would have to be cut back if it got that expensive. I also think recycling would increase, and a lot of that "unrecoverable" silver would start to be recovered. I'm really not sure even $49 is sustainable, unless silver becomes global money again in the absence of fiat, which I doubt the government will ever allow to happen.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though

[shinnosuke]

@ scyther,
All it takes for $114 to be sustainable is a little real-life inflation. You know, the kind of inflation that can't be denied by a complicit mainstream media who get their talking points from the West Wing each morning. You know, the kind of inflation where you stand in a queue for a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow full of paper fiat.

[scyther]

@ scyther,
All it takes for $114 to be sustainable is a little real-life inflation. You know, the kind of inflation that can't be denied by a complicit mainstream media who get their talking points from the West Wing each morning. You know, the kind of inflation where you stand in a queue for a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow full of paper fiat.

Oh certainly, it could go to $114 with inflation. It could also go to $1 billion. But the previous highs and lows- $4, $9, $21, $49- that Inflexion listed have all occurred without very much inflation. They certainly outpaced inflation by many times. So I thought the point was that the pattern would continue, and it would hit $114 without any more inflation than we've seen already.

If hyperinflation hits, I don't think anyone can really predict the price of silver (or anything else), or if you will even be able to buy it for paper at all, but in terms of real purchasing power, I don't think $114 silver is sustainable.

[TwoPenniesEarned]

It would hit 114 and blow off though and come back down to $49, if the sequence holds.

[TwoPenniesEarned]

I appreciate your analysis, Inlexion, but I'm skeptical. Those numbers probably aren't a coincidence, it probably is the pattern thus far, but that doesn't mean it will continue. Obviously it has to end at some point (since nothing can go up forever) and I think 49 is a more reasonable top than 114. I won't say that it can't go to $114 temporarily, since that's still a little lower than the inflation-adjusted high of 1980, but I really don't think that price can be sustained for very long. It's too far above the cost of production, and I think silver use in industry would have to be cut back if it got that expensive. I also think recycling would increase, and a lot of that "unrecoverable" silver would start to be recovered. I'm really not sure even $49 is sustainable, unless silver becomes global money again in the absence of fiat, which I doubt the government will ever allow to happen.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though

I think too few of us factor peak cheap oil into the equation of silver's value. Diesel will cost more and more and more as the reality of peak oil sets in. And just because we used to be able to mine silver cheap does not mean we will continue to be able to do so. Grams per ton of ore have dropped a whole bunch and we aren't finding the high grade ore bodies we used to....so we have also hit peak easy silver.

[tedandcam]

And if you believe the price is going to the $17-19 range are you selling now to be able to buy more then?

I know not what others may do, but as for me and my house, we are the black holes of precious metals...the Hotel California of gold and silver. What goes in, never comes out...you can check in any time you like, but you can never leave. (Exactly how many tired old cliches and misquotes of scripture can I get in one post?) I really don't care if I miss opportunities to make a profit. I'm all about crashing the House of Morgan.

I don't know what I love more...the fact that you turned Hotel California into an awesome metaphor, or that you consider it (and hopefully The Eagles in general) to be scripture.

I will be using the "Hotel California of gold and silver" line in the future. Thank you very much.

"I know not what others may do, but as for me and my house" is the misquote of a verse from the book of Joshua. Chapter 4 if memory serves me correctly.

[InfleXion]

I appreciate your analysis, Inlexion, but I'm skeptical. Those numbers probably aren't a coincidence, it probably is the pattern thus far, but that doesn't mean it will continue. Obviously it has to end at some point (since nothing can go up forever) and I think 49 is a more reasonable top than 114.

I am also skeptical that it will hold simply because I do not believe the paper pushers will allow the paper price to go there. It's only a trend until it isn't. I personally believe fair value silver is over $500/oz based on monetary expansion and historic GSR. That's assuming we have as much gold as we say we do, and we have far less silver available compared to the historic GSR so honestly $500/oz is my conservative estimate. I realize this may appear outlandish.

So for me $114 and beyond isn't out of the question, especially if we have a hyperinflation. Alternatively if the powers choose to default on the debt instead of hyperinflating we'll never know how far the dollar denomintaed price would have gone, but at that point we will see a revaluation across the board and it may be difficult to compare to historical prices unless we look at the buying power in ounces which is what I believe we will eventually have to return to.

I don't think such a revaluation can occur under current circumstances. It would only be after the metal exchanges run out of metal, lose their ability to control the price (since they'd then have to buy physical and pass on the markup), and the USD gets replaced as the world reserve currency most likely by a gold backed yuan or SDR. Prior to such changes taking place I doubt the paper price can break $50, and paper can always go to zero, but the physical market will tell a truer story in the meantime.