How much investable silver is out there?

[theo]

It has often been said that been said their is only 1 billion ounces of above ground of silver. While I agree that silver is under-valued, I believe this estimate is misleading as it likely cannot include 90% U.S., 80% Canadian and other circulated coins. We know that the U.S. mint has sold well over 300 million (1 ounce) ASEs. If you add in all the other sovereign issues (Maples, Phils, Libertads) and then all the coins/bars sold by all the private mints like Silvertowne, JM and our own Rodebaugh I believe we would have about 1 billion ounces. Of course this does not count the Comex "good delivery" bars and silver held in inventory for industrial use. Therefore the real number could be 1.5 to 2 billion ounces. If you disagree with my estimates, what would yours be?

My main question is how much investment silver is out there if you count these circulated sovereign coins? Are there any estimates on what percentage of U.S. 90% have melted?

Also, Which coins would count as "investment" silver? Would you omit the 10% silver Mexican peso or even the 40% Kennedy halves and the the Canadian 50% coins?

[scyther]

Also, Which coins would count as "investment" silver? Would you omit the 10% silver Mexican peso or even the 40% Kennedy halves and the the Canadian 50% coins?

No. I see no reason to. And honestly, I'm not even sure we should discount silverware and jewelery. I think what really matters is how much above ground silver there is (excluding unrecoverable stuff used for certain industrial purposes). I think there's quite a bit.

[inflationhawk]

Some people say silver can only go up because there is a limited supply, but I also think one has to consider that there is somewhat of a ceiling too (or at least greater drag the higher it goes). As the price of silver rises more and more comes onto the market by people cashing in on "dormant" supply that would not have otherwise been on the market.

[InfleXion]

It has often been said that been said their is only 1 billion ounces of above ground of silver. While I agree that silver is under-valued, I believe this estimate is misleading as it likely cannot include 90% U.S., 80% Canadian and other circulated coins. We know that the U.S. mint has sold well over 300 million (1 ounce) ASEs. If you add in all the other sovereign issues (Maples, Phils, Libertads) and then all the coins/bars sold by all the private mints like Silvertowne, JM and our own Rodebaugh I believe we would have about 1 billion ounces. Of course this does not count the Comex "good delivery" bars and silver held in inventory for industrial use. Therefore the real number could be 1.5 to 2 billion ounces. If you disagree with my estimates, what would yours be?

My main question is how much investment silver is out there if you count these circulated sovereign coins? Are there any estimates on what percentage of U.S. 90% have melted?

I have heard this regarding above ground available silver which is a very specific subset. Essentially it includes silver already mined, refined, brought to market, not already purchased by someone unwilling to sell it under the current circumstances, and not in a landfill somewhere. So it can be misleading if not addressed in the appropriate context. Most of the "used up" silver can be recovered but that will have its own industry costs added in. I would imagine the majority of investment silver is not available at current spot price.

It is still a glaring contrast when the amount of available silver would only last for 3 months if mining was halted vs. having a 10 billion ounce stockpile like we used to have, so well above 10 bn ounces could come to market depending on circumstances. There is more new investment silver demand each year (if you count jewelry, maybe some don't) was than there is silver being recouped from existing hands in order to satisfy total demand unmet by mining. Either way, the net flow is into hands as opposed to generating stockpiles which illustrates how undervalued it is has been.

90% has typically been some of the cheapest silver. How much has been melted down to meet the demand over the years? I don't know, probably a lot. At some point enough 90% may be melted down where it all has numismatic value. That may take longer than anyone's investment timeframe, but the premiums on 90% today make it seem like a good play. It's called junk, but it ain't junk!

Also, Which coins would count as "investment" silver? Would you omit the 10% silver Mexican peso or even the 40% Kennedy halves and the the Canadian 50% coins?

I'd imagine anything with silver in it is technically investment silver. By the nature of the metal it will always have value just for being there. It's the premiums that vary.

[inflationhawk]

At some point enough 90% may be melted down where it all has numismatic value. That may take longer than anyone's investment timeframe, but the premiums on 90% today make it seem like a good play. It's called junk, but it ain't junk!

I've often thought about this and wondered if it made sense to collect BU 1940s Washington quarters as a numi investment, not just silver. It seems like there are so few out there in BU condition. It's not likely many we're saved as BU in coin collections during this time period. It doesn't seem like the premium is high enough on these.