Silver To Tackle $15-17

[zKott]

I may be 100% wrong but something tells me silver is very likely to continue its precipitous drop to below $20 and tackle the $15-17 barrier.
Mind your risk and always DYOD
Cheers!

Jonflyfish, if you are certain that Silver will dip to $15, I'm assuming you are talking about some time within this year, then I will be happy to make a friendly wager with you, if you are interested... You got a 50/50 shot at winning.

If Silver falls to $15 on or before 12-31-13; I'll send you a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

If Silver does NOT fall below $15 on or before 12-31-13; you send me a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

Interested?

CopperCatcher, I will wager that Silver will dip below $15 by 12-31-14. Package your ASE up and have it ready by the door. On 1/02/15 I will need you to make a trip down to the post office.

[Zincanator]

This place the most interesting, entertaining bunch of forum members. I spend more time reading posts on RC than I do watching TV. Which reminds me, I should cancel my cable subscription and invest the $ in PMs instead

[Morsecode]

This place the most interesting, entertaining bunch of forum members. I spend more time reading posts on RC than I do watching TV. Which reminds me, I should cancel my cable subscription and invest the $ in PMs instead

That's the first sensible thing that's been said on this thread

[Copper Catcher]

I may be 100% wrong but something tells me silver is very likely to continue its precipitous drop to below $20 and tackle the $15-17 barrier.
Mind your risk and always DYOD
Cheers!

Jonflyfish, if you are certain that Silver will dip to $15, I'm assuming you are talking about some time within this year, then I will be happy to make a friendly wager with you, if you are interested... You got a 50/50 shot at winning.

If Silver falls to $15 on or before 12-31-13; I'll send you a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

If Silver does NOT fall below $15 on or before 12-31-13; you send me a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

Interested?

CopperCatcher, I will wager that Silver will dip below $15 by 12-31-14. Package your ASE up and have it ready by the door. On 1/02/15 I will need you to make a trip down to the post office.

The wager was for 12-31-13 versus 2014.

However, since you have zero feedback and 13 post if you want to take me up on my orginally offer for 2013 I'd say we both agree to mail a Silver Eagle to Nate at the Copper Cave if he is willing to accept and be a third party judge for us.

In return for Nate helping out I'll send him a ASE free and postage for the winner and a bubble envelope to mail the coins in. He can declare the winner on 12-31-13.

Let me know if you are interested and we can see if Nate will help out...

[Jonflyfish]

I may be 100% wrong but something tells me silver is very likely to continue its precipitous drop to below $20 and tackle the $15-17 barrier.
Mind your risk and always DYOD
Cheers!

Phase 1 on the doorstep. A crack at $20 looks very likely. Not going to write a 5,000 word essay or debate as to why. No amount of storytelling, arguing, youtube posting (poo in pants/all-time fav movie clips etc) or website links to someone's soliloquies will make the market move one way or the other.
It is what it is.

Cheers!

[InfleXion]

I may be 100% wrong but something tells me silver is very likely to continue its precipitous drop to below $20 and tackle the $15-17 barrier.
Mind your risk and always DYOD
Cheers!

Phase 1 on the doorstep. A crack at $20 looks very likely. Not going to write a 5,000 word essay or debate as to why. No amount of storytelling, arguing, youtube posting (poo in pants/all-time fav movie clips etc) or website links to someone's soliloquies will make the market move one way or the other.
It is what it is.

Cheers!

I would agree it doesn't look good with today's move being a potential tip-off to Monday's action for the insiders. Have you got any reason to believe it will go down other than that?

[Jonflyfish]

I may be 100% wrong but something tells me silver is very likely to continue its precipitous drop to below $20 and tackle the $15-17 barrier.
Mind your risk and always DYOD
Cheers!

Phase 1 on the doorstep. A crack at $20 looks very likely. Not going to write a 5,000 word essay or debate as to why. No amount of storytelling, arguing, youtube posting (poo in pants/all-time fav movie clips etc) or website links to someone's soliloquies will make the market move one way or the other.
It is what it is.

Cheers!

I would agree it doesn't look good with today's move being a potential tip-off to Monday's action for the insiders. Have you got any reason to believe it will go down other than that?

Hi friend. I only use price. No news or outside influence. Price is the ultimate indicator and that's all I need.
Cheers!

[mflugher]

I would agree it doesn't look good with today's move being a potential tip-off to Monday's action for the insiders. Have you got any reason to believe it will go down other than that?

Reasoning is for the weak minded.

Truth in price Se La Vie

[InfleXion]

Now that is funny

[Jonflyfish]

Rather surprising protectionist post and lock action by the administrators about PM dealers and their weekend sale. Admin must be a dealer and took offense at the weekly sale concept.

Cheers!
Edit: So I posted this and it was locked- "I wonder how many PM dealers will send out the blast e-mails about the perpetual "Sale At A Discount- REDUCED PRICES!!..Hurry, Take Advantage While Prices Are Low!" advertisements."
Really? Locked? Hmpf. Didn't even discuss anything about the "dead horse" unscrupulousness of SOME of the dealers and what they did with premiums. It was Enronesque- Creating a shortage that didn't (and still doesn't) exist.

[Jonflyfish]

I would agree it doesn't look good with today's move being a potential tip-off to Monday's action for the insiders. Have you got any reason to believe it will go down other than that?

Reasoning is for the weak minded.

Truth in price Se La Vie

Think about it. All the stories, articles, musings, magic ball rubs, Armageddon-ness, fear mongering, soliloquies etc etc. touting reasons why shorts have been wrong and prices are sure to skyrocket any moment.
But, it wasn't to be.
Truth in Price.

Cheers1

[mflugher]

Jon that was only slightly tongue in cheek, I was a little disappointed you beat me to the punch on responding.

The only thing that seems to matter anymore is caveman logic, and since we are dealing with a barbarous relic caveman talk may be the best way to handle it...

"DoLAR STRONG buy Shineys"

"DOLAR WEEK, Sell Shineys"

[Jonflyfish]

Jon that was only slightly tongue in cheek, I was a little disapointed you beat me to the punch on responding.

It's cool. I'm just reflecting back a bit at how folks use snippets to support their position, which is human nature but not a good idea for investing or trading.
People were out to lynch me here because of my simple idea to use price as the ultimate indicator- and it was pointing down, not up, so they were upset.
Best to you!
Cheers!

[mflugher]

my simple idea to use price as the ultimate indicator-

Price in and of itself isn't an indicator.

Corn is $1/bushel

Is it going upwards to $1.50 such as 1915?
or is it peaking only to drop back down to 50c a bushel ala 1936?

In both years corn hit $1/bushel, but in both cases it went in completely different directions, therefore price in and of itself can't be an indicator, there has to be some frame of reference.

Or do you mean price trends which are a frame of reference unto themselves?

I understand you are under no obligation to explain your proprietary methods, I'm just trying to ask the same question others do in a more polite manner.

[Jonflyfish]

my simple idea to use price as the ultimate indicator-

Price in and of itself isn't an indicator.

Corn is $1/bushel

Is it going upwards to $1.50 such as 1915?
or is it peaking only to drop back down to 50c a bushel ala 1936?

In both years corn hit $1/bushel, but in both cases it went in completely different directions, therefore price in and of itself can't be an indicator, there has to be some frame of reference.

Or do you mean price trends which are a frame of reference unto themselves?

I understand you are under no obligation to explain your proprietary methods, I'm just trying to ask the same question others do in a more polite manner.

Yes. I mean the analysis of price, not a single static reference point. Modeling non-linear time series of the collective positions.

Cheers!

[mflugher]

Ok. how does one reference time in a non linear fashion?

How would you chart that?

And if Time is a nonlinear variable in your equations how do you know the trend you derive is not actually pointing to a time reference in the past or in the non useful long term future (IE 2273)?

[ThePowersThatBe]

Rather surprising protectionist post and lock action by the administrators about PM dealers and their weekend sale. Admin must be a dealer and took offense at the weekly sale concept.

Cheers!
Edit: So I posted this and it was locked- "I wonder how many PM dealers will send out the blast e-mails about the perpetual "Sale At A Discount- REDUCED PRICES!!..Hurry, Take Advantage While Prices Are Low!" advertisements."
Really? Locked? Hmpf. Didn't even discuss anything about the "dead horse" unscrupulousness of SOME of the dealers and what they did with premiums. It was Enronesque- Creating a shortage that didn't (and still doesn't) exist.

If you wish to rehash that topic, just go back here:

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=24014

or here:

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23965

or here:

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23237

There is no need to start yet another thread about it. We don't let anybody start thread after thread about the same thing. It's self-promoting and clutters up the forum. Just a simple matter of procedure and organization.

[zKott]

The wager was for 12-31-13 versus 2014.

However, since you have zero feedback and 13 post if you want to take me up on my orginally offer for 2013 I'd say we both agree to mail a Silver Eagle to Nate at the Copper Cave if he is willing to accept and be a third party judge for us.

In return for Nate helping out I'll send him a ASE free and postage for the winner and a bubble envelope to mail the coins in. He can declare the winner on 12-31-13.

Let me know if you are interested and we can see if Nate will help out...

Sorry copper, but I don't believe that it will fall below $15.00 by 12-31-13!

But my offer of 12-31-14 still stands! (all in good fun, of course!) ...and Yes, I will ship to a third party for verification since I'm a newbie!

[Jonflyfish]

Rather surprising protectionist post and lock action by the administrators about PM dealers and their weekend sale. Admin must be a dealer and took offense at the weekly sale concept.

Cheers!
Edit: So I posted this and it was locked- "I wonder how many PM dealers will send out the blast e-mails about the perpetual "Sale At A Discount- REDUCED PRICES!!..Hurry, Take Advantage While Prices Are Low!" advertisements."
Really? Locked? Hmpf. Didn't even discuss anything about the "dead horse" unscrupulousness of SOME of the dealers and what they did with premiums. It was Enronesque- Creating a shortage that didn't (and still doesn't) exist.

If you wish to rehash that topic, just go back here:

http://realcent.org/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=24014

or here:

http://realcent.org/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23965

or here:

http://realcent.org/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23237

There is no need to start yet another thread about it. We don't let anybody start thread after thread about the same thing. It's self-promoting and clutters up the forum. Just a simple matter of procedure and organization.

I don't know what topic you are referring to. And I certainly don't see people actively edit and lock threads for the reasons you mentioned.
I started a new thread about the weekly sales events of which none of the threads you listed are about. In fact, it almost seems that you wanted to bring back a dead horse and that was not my intention. Quick reaction and seemingly hypersensitive to anything about dealers, even if there wasn't anything necessarily provocative or incendiary. By jumping the gun you may have drawn attention to make a mountain out of a mole hill. Let it rest. I have no interest in discussing any of this beyond this point.
Peace.
Cheers!
P.S. It would be nice to have a more powerful search feature to find older relevant threads to continue with when appropriate. Current search engine isn't very conducive for that, however.

[Jonflyfish]

Ok. how does one reference time in a non linear fashion?

How would you chart that?

And if Time is a nonlinear variable in your equations how do you know the trend you derive is not actually pointing to a time reference in the past or in the non useful long term future (IE 2273)?

Good questions. The jargon for doing such may be beyond the scope of posting here but would happily discuss in an I.M. In short, the market doesn't move in straight lines from point A to point B (peaks and troughs or vice versa).
Sadly, posting details here may draw the wrong attention and get overthrown by folks lurking for a chance to lash out and I don't want to get into debates because there is nothing to debate.

Cheers!

[Fusion]

JFF - as a new member here on RC I have been reading your posts and have enjoyed them. I believe we have some thoughts in common. I am finishing Edward Leshik's book and thought this quote, if I may, could assist in this discussion. It is one of the best books on Algorithmic trading I've read thus far. Please continue to share your thoughts so I can backtest them as some here seem to be doing manually

“Algos can execute complex math in real time and take the required decisions based on the strategy defined without human intervention and send the trade for execution automatically from the computer to the Exchange. We are no longer limited by human ‘bandwidth.’ A computer can easily trade hundreds of issues simultaneously using advanced algorithms with layers of conditional rules. This capability on its own would be enough to power the growth of algorithmic trading due to cost savings alone.
As the developments in computer technology facilitated the real-time analysis of price movement combined with the introduction of various other technologies, this all culminated in algorithmic trading becoming an absolute must for survival – both for the Buy side and the Sell side and in fact any serious major trader has had to migrate to the use of automated algorithmic trading in order to stay competitive.
A Citigroup report estimates that well over 50% of all USA equity trades are currently handled algorithmically by computers with no or minimal human trader intervention (mid-2009). There is considerable disagreement in the statistics from other sources and the number of automated algorithmic trades may be considerably higher.

[johnbrickner]

This place the most interesting, entertaining bunch of forum members. I spend more time reading posts on RC than I do watching TV. Which reminds me, I should cancel my cable subscription and invest the $ in PMs instead

(edit for proper English)

Not meaning to steal the direction of the conversation but Zincanator, we did this 14 years ago and never looked back. Even today we have no reception on our TV. While difficult for many, it's the first step to becoming free from those who would use it to brainwash you and your family.

[inflationhawk]

JFF - as a new member here on RC I have been reading your posts and have enjoyed them. I believe we have some thoughts in common. I am finishing Edward Leshik's book and thought this quote, if I may, could assist in this discussion. It is one of the best books on Algorithmic trading I've read thus far. Please continue to share your thoughts so I can backtest them as some here seem to be doing manually

“Algos can execute complex math in real time and take the required decisions based on the strategy defined without human intervention and send the trade for execution automatically from the computer to the Exchange. We are no longer limited by human ‘bandwidth.’ A computer can easily trade hundreds of issues simultaneously using advanced algorithms with layers of conditional rules. This capability on its own would be enough to power the growth of algorithmic trading due to cost savings alone.
As the developments in computer technology facilitated the real-time analysis of price movement combined with the introduction of various other technologies, this all culminated in algorithmic trading becoming an absolute must for survival – both for the Buy side and the Sell side and in fact any serious major trader has had to migrate to the use of automated algorithmic trading in order to stay competitive.
A Citigroup report estimates that well over 50% of all USA equity trades are currently handled algorithmically by computers with no or minimal human trader intervention (mid-2009). There is considerable disagreement in the statistics from other sources and the number of automated algorithmic trades may be considerably higher.

Fusion, this is a good example of all that is wrong with markets today. Limited by human bandwidth??? This is called gaming the system and is not the intent of the free market capitalist system set up by our forefathers. If this is what evolution and progress brings, are you sure you are ready for the unintended consequences? A profit can be made no doubt, but at what cost? If you think you know the cost and the consequences, please let us know. No one has accurately been able to fully explain the flash crash years later, why do you think that is? Just look at how long it took to even come up with a partial answer for the flash crash.

[Fusion]

You don't think humans are limited in what they can and cannot do? When you are not feeling well, are you limited? If you're away from your computer to trade when the market is moving, are you limited? If you're angry or otherwise emotional, are you limited? It is called evolution, its what humans do. However if you choose to stay in the past, that's your choice. More than half of the market disagrees with you. And I never said I could predict the cost or consequences so that one came from left field. Algos use computer programs to optimize results. Do you not do the same thing when u pick up your cell and make a call, use the remote on your TV, heat something in your microwave, use navigation in your car? I'm not going to argue the merits of a system that is being used millions of times a day. It is what it is. I simply believe that in order to survive, one must evolve. Thank you.

[inflationhawk]

The ability to make a cell call, use a remote for TV, a microwave and navigational systems are great examples of productive assets and human engineering and are exactly what human evolution is and should be all about. Financial engineering produces nothing of value as an end result. In fact, its a waste of human productivity that could be better utilized making advances in other areas producing goods and services. The examples you provided were all produced more than a decade ago, in some cases several decades. Wonder why that is?