Silver To Tackle $15-17

[scyther]

You don't think humans are limited in what they can and cannot do? When you are not feeling well, are you limited? If you're away from your computer to trade when the market is moving, are you limited? If you're angry or otherwise emotional, are you limited? It is called evolution, its what humans do. However if you choose to stay in the past, that's your choice. More than half of the market disagrees with you. And I never said I could predict the cost or consequences so that one came from left field. Algos use computer programs to optimize results. Do you not do the same thing when u pick up your cell and make a call, use the remote on your TV, heat something in your microwave, use navigation in your car? I'm not going to argue the merits of a system that is being used millions of times a day. It is what it is. I simply believe that in order to survive, one must evolve. Thank you.

I think his point was that the algorithms are too good, not that they aren't good enough. Although it seems to me that they would just make the free market more efficient by having more information and acting on it more quickly than a human could. But I really don't know.

[inflationhawk]

You don't think humans are limited in what they can and cannot do? When you are not feeling well, are you limited? If you're away from your computer to trade when the market is moving, are you limited? If you're angry or otherwise emotional, are you limited? It is called evolution, its what humans do. However if you choose to stay in the past, that's your choice. More than half of the market disagrees with you. And I never said I could predict the cost or consequences so that one came from left field. Algos use computer programs to optimize results. Do you not do the same thing when u pick up your cell and make a call, use the remote on your TV, heat something in your microwave, use navigation in your car? I'm not going to argue the merits of a system that is being used millions of times a day. It is what it is. I simply believe that in order to survive, one must evolve. Thank you.

I think his point was that the algorithms are too good, not that they aren't good enough. Although it seems to me that they would just make the free market more efficient by having more information and acting on it more quickly than a human could. But I really don't know.

I think humans can produce amazing algorithms and can probably go far beyond what is even there now. I just don't see the point when all that brain power can be used in much more productive ways. Actually, its not just that I don't see the point, its that there are unintended consequences that will likely happen the farther we go into financial engineering. I don't believe that the incremental gains in efficiency outweigh the negative consequences that could occur from financial engineering. Its a systemic risk management position.

[Engineer]

I agree on the systemic risk.

You can bet your shorts that there's a building of bright young people who spend their days probing and testing looking for weaknesses to exploit in the markets...building a fatfinger doomsday switch, if you will.

[Jonflyfish]

JFF - as a new member here on RC I have been reading your posts and have enjoyed them. I believe we have some thoughts in common. I am finishing Edward Leshik's book and thought this quote, if I may, could assist in this discussion. It is one of the best books on Algorithmic trading I've read thus far. Please continue to share your thoughts so I can backtest them as some here seem to be doing manually

“Algos can execute complex math in real time and take the required decisions based on the strategy defined without human intervention and send the trade for execution automatically from the computer to the Exchange. We are no longer limited by human ‘bandwidth.’ A computer can easily trade hundreds of issues simultaneously using advanced algorithms with layers of conditional rules. This capability on its own would be enough to power the growth of algorithmic trading due to cost savings alone.
As the developments in computer technology facilitated the real-time analysis of price movement combined with the introduction of various other technologies, this all culminated in algorithmic trading becoming an absolute must for survival – both for the Buy side and the Sell side and in fact any serious major trader has had to migrate to the use of automated algorithmic trading in order to stay competitive.
A Citigroup report estimates that well over 50% of all USA equity trades are currently handled algorithmically by computers with no or minimal human trader intervention (mid-2009). There is considerable disagreement in the statistics from other sources and the number of automated algorithmic trades may be considerably higher.

Good post, Fusion. This is capitalism at its finest. The markets are a reflection of behavioral finance. Having one express their models in a mechanical process is one of many approaches to the markets. Some of the most successful trades have very infrequent transacting in the markets while others have an incredible amount. What was once nearly impossible to do with statistical modeling and only discussed in classroom theory due to the human bandwidth limitations are now far advanced. I'm amazed at how many of the previously unsolved algorithmic math problems have been resolved with modern computational capabilities. Imagine designing, testing and optimizing a wide body airliner through mathematical modeling and simulation on powerful computer systems that we are capable of now vs slide rule, abacus, clay modeling and endless wind tunnel iterations etc. It's fascinating.

Cheers!

[InfleXion]

Phase 1 on the doorstep. A crack at $20 looks very likely. Not going to write a 5,000 word essay or debate as to why. No amount of storytelling, arguing, youtube posting (poo in pants/all-time fav movie clips etc) or website links to someone's soliloquies will make the market move one way or the other.
It is what it is.

Cheers!

I would agree it doesn't look good with today's move being a potential tip-off to Monday's action for the insiders. Have you got any reason to believe it will go down other than that?

Hi friend. I only use price. No news or outside influence. Price is the ultimate indicator and that's all I need.
Cheers!

I guess I should have been more pointed. Why do you believe it will go down?

[InfleXion]

I agree on the systemic risk.

You can bet your shorts that there's a building of bright young people who spend their days probing and testing looking for weaknesses to exploit in the markets...building a fatfinger doomsday switch, if you will.

There we have it. There is no such thing as 100% secure. When we allow systems to run the markets instead of real buyers and sellers then it is only a matter of time before some blackhat exploits it for personal gain, or worse.

[Jonflyfish]

JFF - as a new member here on RC I have been reading your posts and have enjoyed them. I believe we have some thoughts in common. I am finishing Edward Leshik's book and thought this quote, if I may, could assist in this discussion. It is one of the best books on Algorithmic trading I've read thus far. Please continue to share your thoughts so I can backtest them as some here seem to be doing manually

“Algos can execute complex math in real time and take the required decisions based on the strategy defined without human intervention and send the trade for execution automatically from the computer to the Exchange. We are no longer limited by human ‘bandwidth.’ A computer can easily trade hundreds of issues simultaneously using advanced algorithms with layers of conditional rules. This capability on its own would be enough to power the growth of algorithmic trading due to cost savings alone.
As the developments in computer technology facilitated the real-time analysis of price movement combined with the introduction of various other technologies, this all culminated in algorithmic trading becoming an absolute must for survival – both for the Buy side and the Sell side and in fact any serious major trader has had to migrate to the use of automated algorithmic trading in order to stay competitive.
A Citigroup report estimates that well over 50% of all USA equity trades are currently handled algorithmically by computers with no or minimal human trader intervention (mid-2009). There is considerable disagreement in the statistics from other sources and the number of automated algorithmic trades may be considerably higher.

Fusion, this is a good example of all that is wrong with markets today. Limited by human bandwidth??? This is called gaming the system and is not the intent of the free market capitalist system set up by our forefathers. If this is what evolution and progress brings, are you sure you are ready for the unintended consequences? A profit can be made no doubt, but at what cost? If you think you know the cost and the consequences, please let us know. No one has accurately been able to fully explain the flash crash years later, why do you think that is? Just look at how long it took to even come up with a partial answer for the flash crash.

[Jonflyfish]

I guess I should have been more pointed. Why do you believe it will go down?

I don't. What I believe is that the market can and will do anything. I fully accept that. That allows me to be free to keep the hedges on or lift them and use the proceeds to stack more, go long, stay short etc. Because I believe the market can and will do anything, I am free to profit from it. Some try to be right even when wrong. They are married to their position or views with pride and greed.
Simply put, I'm not in it to be right. I'm in it to make money. If the market says reverse one way or the other, I do not hesitate. That's the difference between investors and grandstand newsletter guru's and so called "experts". Successful investors are free to make money by following a disciplined approach instead of having to try and save face from some wild ball rub snake oil predictions gone awry by telling even taller tales.
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

I agree on the systemic risk.

You can bet your shorts that there's a building of bright young people who spend their days probing and testing looking for weaknesses to exploit in the markets...building a fatfinger doomsday switch, if you will.

There we have it. There is no such thing as 100% secure. When we allow systems to run the markets instead of real buyers and sellers then it is only a matter of time before some blackhat exploits it for personal gain, or worse.

Systems don't run the markets. But some people run systems in the market. Actually, anyone who buys or sells in the market is using some form of a system. All free market capitalism is about personal gain e.g. a coin dealer selling chips of PM's to the next chap. It's not a charity.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

You don't think humans are limited in what they can and cannot do? When you are not feeling well, are you limited? If you're away from your computer to trade when the market is moving, are you limited? If you're angry or otherwise emotional, are you limited? It is called evolution, its what humans do. However if you choose to stay in the past, that's your choice. More than half of the market disagrees with you. And I never said I could predict the cost or consequences so that one came from left field. Algos use computer programs to optimize results. Do you not do the same thing when u pick up your cell and make a call, use the remote on your TV, heat something in your microwave, use navigation in your car? I'm not going to argue the merits of a system that is being used millions of times a day. It is what it is. I simply believe that in order to survive, one must evolve. Thank you.

I think his point was that the algorithms are too good, not that they aren't good enough. Although it seems to me that they would just make the free market more efficient by having more information and acting on it more quickly than a human could. But I really don't know.

I think humans can produce amazing algorithms and can probably go far beyond what is even there now. I just don't see the point when all that brain power can be used in much more productive ways. Actually, its not just that I don't see the point, its that there are unintended consequences that will likely happen the farther we go into financial engineering. I don't believe that the incremental gains in efficiency outweigh the negative consequences that could occur from financial engineering. Its a systemic risk management position.

Some of the greatest advancements in financial engineering have been around risk management.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

You don't think humans are limited in what they can and cannot do? When you are not feeling well, are you limited? If you're away from your computer to trade when the market is moving, are you limited? If you're angry or otherwise emotional, are you limited? It is called evolution, its what humans do. However if you choose to stay in the past, that's your choice. More than half of the market disagrees with you. And I never said I could predict the cost or consequences so that one came from left field. Algos use computer programs to optimize results. Do you not do the same thing when u pick up your cell and make a call, use the remote on your TV, heat something in your microwave, use navigation in your car? I'm not going to argue the merits of a system that is being used millions of times a day. It is what it is. I simply believe that in order to survive, one must evolve. Thank you.

I think his point was that the algorithms are too good, not that they aren't good enough. Although it seems to me that they would just make the free market more efficient by having more information and acting on it more quickly than a human could. But I really don't know.

Price charts look the same today as they have over hundreds and thousands of years. Sure trade execution times have improved with technology but that hasn't changed where prices ultimately go, nor why. Behavioral finance is the same today as centuries ago. Booms, busts, trends, consolidation are all present for the same reasons.

Cheers!

[InfleXion]

I guess I should have been more pointed. Why do you believe it will go down?

I don't. What I believe is that the market can and will do anything. I fully accept that. That allows me to be free to keep the hedges on or lift them and use the proceeds to stack more, go long, stay short etc. Because I believe the market can and will do anything, I am free to profit from it. Some try to be right even when wrong. They are married to their position or views with pride and greed.
Simply put, I'm not in it to be right. I'm in it to make money. If the market says reverse one way or the other, I do not hesitate. That's the difference between investors and grandstand newsletter guru's and so called "experts". Successful investors are free to make money by following a disciplined approach instead of having to try and save face from some wild ball rub snake oil predictions gone awry by telling even taller tales.
Cheers!

If you don't believe it will go down then why did you start a topic saying silver will tackle $15-17? I'm having a hard time understanding what your basis for the thread is. If you don't have any reason to believe the price range you have called out will be reached then why call it out?

[Jonflyfish]

I guess I should have been more pointed. Why do you believe it will go down?

I don't. What I believe is that the market can and will do anything. I fully accept that. That allows me to be free to keep the hedges on or lift them and use the proceeds to stack more, go long, stay short etc. Because I believe the market can and will do anything, I am free to profit from it. Some try to be right even when wrong. They are married to their position or views with pride and greed.
Simply put, I'm not in it to be right. I'm in it to make money. If the market says reverse one way or the other, I do not hesitate. That's the difference between investors and grandstand newsletter guru's and so called "experts". Successful investors are free to make money by following a disciplined approach instead of having to try and save face from some wild ball rub snake oil predictions gone awry by telling even taller tales.
Cheers!

If you don't believe it will go down then why did you start a topic saying silver will tackle $15-17? I'm having a hard time understanding what your basis for the thread is. If you don't have any reason to believe the price range you have called out will be reached then why call it out?

Because it is very likely to happen (as stated at the beginning of the thread). And that is not the same as believing that it will happen. The nonexistent future is always unknowable.

Cheers!

[InfleXion]

Because it is very likely to happen (as stated at the beginning of the thread). And that is not the same as believing that it will happen. The nonexistent future is always unknowable.

Cheers!

Why is it very likely to happen?

[slickeast]

Personally I have a feeling by the end of this week many will be in shock by the movements in the PM market.

[Engineer]

My proprietary weather forecasting system (ARAVE) is calling for 2.3 to 2.4 inches of rain. It doesn't say when or why, or how long it will take that much to fall...but it's calling for 2.3 to 2.4 inches of rain.

I'd explain more, but it would just lead to useless debates.

[beauanderos]

My proprietary weather forecasting system (ARAVE) is calling for 2.3 to 2.4 inches of rain. It doesn't say when or why, or how long it will take that much to fall...but it's calling for 2.3 to 2.4 inches of rain.

I'd explain more, but it would just lead to useless debates.

But...but... you could be 100% wrong! What if I'm trying to plan for a wedding and need assurance it will be a bright and sunny day? I could lose a lot of money if it's a large event, guests are invited and expensive meals catered. The grounds where we are considering hosting this event don't have shrubbery surrounding them, so don't ask if they are hedged. And I'm not asking this because I'm a wedding planner who has a vested interest in sunny weather. So now you say there are dark clouds in the sky? Is rain going to come down or not? People continue to believe that the sun will evaporate water, and there are lots of debates about water running out. So which is it? Personally, I think that posts implying that rain may fall are pointless and a waste of our time, obscure proprietary systems or not. Weather is the final arbiter... and only GOD can predict weather with perfect accuracy, otherwise more speculators would be playing ark futures.

[Engineer]

I could be 100% wrong.

Chuckles!

[beauanderos]

I could be 100% wrong.

Chuckles!

I hate it when you always end your posts Chuckles. You only seem to post about weather when there has been a dramatic change, and torrential downpours and flooding are no laughing matter. Yet you persist in posting inane weather comments and then signing off Chuckles. Why are you hanging around a penny forum making rainfall predictions?

[slickeast]

Ray, your soliloquy is no more than a combination of soliloquies. Even if you are 100% wrong today doesn't mean you can't be 100% right in the future using the same statements. I don't use weather equipment to tell me what the weather is. The weather is the weather regardless of what the instruments are showing. Hedging your property with shrubs ( either short or long shrubs) for a wedding won't help when the rain starts falling.

[beauanderos]

Ray, your soliloquy is no more than a combination of soliloquies. Even if you are 100% wrong today doesn't mean you can't be 100% right in the future using the same statements. I don't use weather equipment to tell me what the weather is. The weather is the weather regardless of what the instruments are showing. Hedging your property with shrubs ( either short or long shrubs) for a wedding won't help when the rain starts falling.

But then you're basically saying that people CAN'T make plans based upon the statements of weather forecasters? That's insane! This could ruin entire newscasts and put a lot of forecasters into the unemployment line, if true.

I guess what you're really saying is that those folks on television, who stand up and point this direction and that, using arrows to indicate a developing storm front or a low pressure system building, are nothing but dolts? Don't they realize how ridiculous they appear, gesticulating wildly in front of what we all know is a blue or green screen, and that their every gesture is scripted?

Then I suppose that all we have to do is stick our head out the door and we can see if the sun is shining? Because the climate is whatever weather says it is? The current temperature is completely predictable on a circadian basis, totally irrespective of whether black swans are swimming in the pond.

Rodomontades!

[inflationhawk]

A rain gauge is the ultimate indicator. If the rain gauge starts filling up, it means its raining. If it stays empty, its not.

[slickeast]

A rain gauge is the ultimate indicator. If the rain gauge starts filling up, it means its raining. If it stays empty, its not.

Not necessarily. The rain gauge may have a hole in the bottom. This would show an empty gauge even during a downpour. So again, the weather is the weather regardless of what the instruments indicate.

[scyther]

Chuckles!

[Computer Jones]

WOW, now this is a THREAD!

Meanwhile back at the ranch...

I sure hope Ag don't go down that low.
But if it does, I'll still be stacking.

I'm pretty sure my model is:
Buy what you can when you can. Don't sell until it's the last option you got, OR if somebody makes you an offer that's too good to pass. (Everything is negotiable now, isn't it?)
Consarnit! Now I'm complexing up my model (Durn variables!!)...

Might be I should use the kiss principle and just go with the "Caveman Model" -> Shiny good. Me keep!