Silver To Tackle $15-17

[CardsNCoins]

....Meanwhile back at the ranch...

Tonto, disguised as a teabag, was up to his neck in hot water.

[twentybux]

Darn that Tonto!

[adagirl]

Sweet,

Blood in the streets.

Time to buy even more if the $15 - $17 range hits.

[TwoPenniesEarned]

Since most of the investments I buy are not good, I suspect that because I really loaded up on silver that it will indeed tackle $15. If my luck holds, I will have no money to "back up the truck" with, having already done so at the various stages of the drop from $49.

I'm certainly at the point of beginning to feel demoralized by the price, so perhaps we're near bottom. I bought silver because of what bankers were doing to our money. I can't believe, after everything they have done to undermine the value of fiat in the past 6 years, that scumbag bankers are still able to blow the bottom out of PM's with the push of a few buttons and load up on the cheap. And the world is playing ball. Obviously someone is selling at these levels, which is why they are holding. I agree with David Morgan that you can manipulate short term market action, but not the longer term market. We're at the level where the longer term market just is this cheap. So now despite all the money printing, it would have been better to be in cash.

I really wish I'd have just been making mortgage payments instead of stacking at this point. Which is ridiculous given all of the scandals and greed and money printing...but there you go. I guess bankers do own everything, except my exceptionally devalued stack. But they get to print some money and buy my neighbour's paper stack, and then they'll get out at just the right time before the government passes laws prohibiting the sale or transfer or possession of coins unless you pay some ludicrous new tax that will go in just after the bankers have gone out of PMs.

[barrytrot]

TwoPenniesEarned,

If that is what you sound like when you are "beginning to feel demoralized" then I shudder to think about the demoralized version


Silver and Gold are LONG TERM games. Much longer than since it was at $49. I think that was still within the last 2 years. That's not long term. Long term is definitely more than 2 years. Maybe double digit years, maybe higher than that.

[TwoPenniesEarned]

Yeah, I'm having a shitty day I think. Best not to make any big decisions today...

[Engineer]

I really wish I'd have just been making mortgage payments instead of stacking at this point.

As much as I like PMs, it's hard to argue against paying down a mortgage. The benefits are defined and if you put up an extra principal payment, it'll save the amount you'd pay in interest the next month. If you're in the first few years of a mortgage, it's nearly a 100% ROI...with the added bonus of getting off the debt treadmill a month earlier.

[barrytrot]

I really wish I'd have just been making mortgage payments instead of stacking at this point.

As much as I like PMs, it's hard to argue against paying down a mortgage. The benefits are defined and if you put up an extra principal payment, it'll save the amount you'd pay in interest the next month. If you're in the first few years of a mortgage, it's nearly a 100% ROI...with the added bonus of getting off the debt treadmill a month earlier.

+1

Getting your "monthly nut" down works well in all environments.

[Thogey]

Since most of the investments I buy are not good, I suspect that because I really loaded up on silver that it will indeed tackle $15. If my luck holds, I will have no money to "back up the truck" with, having already done so at the various stages of the drop from $49.

I'm certainly at the point of beginning to feel demoralized by the price, so perhaps we're near bottom. I bought silver because of what bankers were doing to our money. I can't believe, after everything they have done to undermine the value of fiat in the past 6 years, that scumbag bankers are still able to blow the bottom out of PM's with the push of a few buttons and load up on the cheap. And the world is playing ball. Obviously someone is selling at these levels, which is why they are holding. I agree with David Morgan that you can manipulate short term market action, but not the longer term market. We're at the level where the longer term market just is this cheap. So now despite all the money printing, it would have been better to be in cash.

I really wish I'd have just been making mortgage payments instead of stacking at this point. Which is ridiculous given all of the scandals and greed and money printing...but there you go. I guess bankers do own everything, except my exceptionally devalued stack. But they get to print some money and buy my neighbour's paper stack, and then they'll get out at just the right time before the government passes laws prohibiting the sale or transfer or possession of coins unless you pay some ludicrous new tax that will go in just after the bankers have gone out of PMs.

Pay down the mortgage. Debt is slavery.

I'm workin on mine too but.....................

Don't let emotions get involved. If you are excited that your investments are rising sell, get out. If you are demoralized because your investments are going down, sell, get the hell out.

If you bought silver at various stages from 49 than you should be buying now at 15 at 10 at 5. Nothing has changed. Average down. Dilute your cost basis so your $40 dollar silver becomes $20 dollar silver. I have a $800 d roll of Phils that do not bother me one bit because they are mixed with $300 rolls of ASE's.

It's not bonds debt or stock. It's metal. It's an element that has been money for 5000 years.
Be cool, be calm, enjoy the ride.

[InfleXion]

I prefer to pay down the mortgage and stack. My stack can follow me wherever I go, my home can't. I don't have any other debt and sure debt is debt but paying off a home takes years so I approach it from the standpoint of not acquiring debt with this particular exception. Hopefully one day I can pay my home off with my stack, but regardless there is no substitute for sound money. I have no regrets buying at higher prices, because there is no question about value in my mind. I never planned on trying to do a quick flip so it's not money I need to get back. I could have had more ounces, but I haven't lost any money because really I gained real money at an exchange ratio that is still very beneficial IMO which is why I wanted it. Nothing happened at $49 that isn't still happening now fundamentally, as in not including speculators and market makers. If the goal is to get rich the greed could burn you, but if it's approached from the standpoint of having and holding superior money for as long as it takes I think it will be rewarding.

[Engineer]

I prefer to pay down the mortgage and stack. My stack can follow me wherever I go, my home can't.

There's a lot of truth to that reasoning, and a balanced approach seems to be a good course of action. Still, though...there should be some sort of a method for people to figure out how much to put toward each goal.

If your interest payment is as high as your principal payment, it would make sense to put most of your money toward paying down the note. As your interest costs drop, however, it would probably be a good idea to shift some of that savings into metals. Something like the following might work:

If your interest was 90% as high as your principal, you'd put 90% of your extra funds toward principal
When interest drops to 50% of principal, you'd put equal amounts toward metals and principal
When your interest drops to 10% of principal, you could put 90% of your extra toward metals

Doing it that way would help you to avoid having compound interest working against you, while accelerating the size of your stack in the later years when interest costs wouldn't be so much of an issue.

[68Camaro]

Without quoting all the above discussion, I'm sure there is an equation for this, but there are so many variables due to secondary factors that IMHO it practically has to be customized for each situation.

I personally have no issue with buying PMs while still holding mortgage debt, but... 1) ensure if possible that you've re-fi'd down to the lowest possible reasonable interest rate on a short mortgage (15 years or less, with no PMI), to take advantage of these historic lows; 2) if you are underwater, you should continue to look for and acquire small, smart PM deals, but sacrifice *some* of your PM acquistion to pay off principle until you are at least not underwater, have a short mortgage at great rate, and have no PMI. If you have a 15 year or less mortgage, no PMI, and an interest rate of 4% or less (<3% currently possible), then personally I would be NOT be paying ahead on the mortgage at this time but instead buying PMs with anything you have that is left at end of month. (Hmmm, that's what I'm doing. )

[inflationhawk]

I prefer to pay down the mortgage and stack. My stack can follow me wherever I go, my home can't. I don't have any other debt and sure debt is debt but paying off a home takes years so I approach it from the standpoint of not acquiring debt with this particular exception. Hopefully one day I can pay my home off with my stack, but regardless there is no substitute for sound money. I have no regrets buying at higher prices, because there is no question about value in my mind. I never planned on trying to do a quick flip so it's not money I need to get back. I could have had more ounces, but I haven't lost any money because really I gained real money at an exchange ratio that is still very beneficial IMO which is why I wanted it. Nothing happened at $49 that isn't still happening now fundamentally, as in not including speculators and market makers. If the goal is to get rich the greed could burn you, but if it's approached from the standpoint of having and holding superior money for as long as it takes I think it will be rewarding.

While I agree in concept with just about all you said, I have to bring up the reference to 'real money'. Real money is what is considered money at the time of the statement. Right now, 'real money' is fiat currency because that is what is generally accepted as a medium of exchange in society at large. I agree that this fiat money is lower quality in the long term compared to hard assets. This is why diversification is key and ALWAYS having enough fiat money on hand to live on in the short term. If a person is plowing everything into metals every month, when an unexpected expense arises requiring real money to pay off, you can't just pay in metals (unless you barter which isn't accepted by most creditors). You have to transfer your metals back into the real money accepted in current society at large. I agree whole heartedly that gold and silver are a higher quality asset in the long term than fiat currency, but you can't deny reality that 'real money' in current everyday life is fiat currency. It all depends on the context you use the term 'real money' I suppose. You say, 'I never planned on trying to do a quick flip so it's not money I need to get back.' so you sound like your set.

[InfleXion]

I will meet you halfway inflationhawk in that fiat currency is what we have to use to settle our debts, but it is not real money. Real money is fungible, divisible, durable, and portable. Fiat currency fails the durability test, and is less divisible since you can't cut it in half or put flame to it and still make change.

Maybe I meant to say sound money instead of real money in those instances, if there is a difference.

But yes I would not forgo my cash cushion for metals because then I might have to sell some when I don't want to.

[scyther]

I think fiat is sufficiently divisible. Much more divisible than gold, for practical purposes.

[68Camaro]

I think fiat is sufficiently divisible. Much more divisible than gold, for practical purposes.

Yep, the number zero is infinitely and evenly divisible by any and every other number - it is unique in that characteristic... Just not very useful.

[inflationhawk]

I will meet you halfway inflationhawk in that fiat currency is what we have to use to settle our debts, but it is not real money. Real money is fungible, divisible, durable, and portable. Fiat currency fails the durability test, and is less divisible since you can't cut it in half or put flame to it and still make change.

Maybe I meant to say sound money instead of real money in those instances, if there is a difference.

But yes I would not forgo my cash cushion for metals because then I might have to sell some when I don't want to.

Yes, I agree, sound money is a good description of hard assets like gold and silver. "Real money" has too many possible nuances since to me anyway, real money means its a medium of exchange that can be used in its current form to settle debts.

[inflationhawk]

That being said, PLEASE don't rename the site Soundcent!!!

[InfleXion]

I think fiat is sufficiently divisible. Much more divisible than gold, for practical purposes.

It's only divisible insomuch as someone is willing to give you 4 quarters for a dollar. The paper dollar in and of itself is not divisible. Try tearing it up into little pieces and see how much it's worth. Yes, it is divisible, but only because of the promise behind it, not intrinsically as with metals.

Electronic money doesn't have this drawback though since we don't have the option to destroy it. As to the question of durability, electronic currency is a double edged sword. Technically there is no physical durability to electronic currency, but due to system backup and redundancy it has more potential longevity than paper over time.

Gold may not be as easy to divide, but as to the function of divisibility which is what is being compared you can hack it up, melt it, try to destroy it any way possible and it will retain its value by weight in every instance. If it were legal to melt a real cent then a penny would count, but if it were legal to melt a quarter it would not be divisible in that same regard since it is no longer backed by its melt value.

Additionally, currency is only divisible down to the penny. Metals are divisible down to any amount you can measure. So metals meet the requirements for divisibility better than the current currency ever could (unless it adopted a fractional nature like BitCoin), but that doesn't speak to the ease with which it can be done which is the measure of conveience, and that is why people were sold on the idea of paper currency in the first place. Convenience is not a requirement of sound money however.

[InfleXion]

That being said, PLEASE don't rename the site Soundcent!!!

I think you may have just proven my point but I can see where "sound money" is an easier term for a wider array of folks to agree upon without having to discuss definitions.

[Jonflyfish]

Bigger picture is still on target. $17.77 is a natural target.

Cheers!

[inflationhawk]

Not sure where the 17.77 comes from, but the short term trend is sure heading that way. Good time for adding to the stack.

[Jonflyfish]

Not sure where the 17.77 comes from, but the short term trend is sure heading that way. Good time for adding to the stack.

You can be sure that It comes from my analysis.
Cheers!

[inflationhawk]

Looking forward to validating it. The direction certainly is heading that way. What's your time frame?

[stlouiscoin]

annnndddd were below $20. just happen to check kitco this morning, and silver was below $20 for a few hours.

I have to agree with jjf, this is not the bottom of silver. I myself see it dropping all the way to the $4-$8 range. gas. were not at $5/gallon anymore, are we? it's still dropping. when has silver gone up this high and not come back down to the sub-$10 level?