South Africa Gold Strikes (1/3 production off line)

[rsk1963]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/03/us-safrica-strikes-idUSBRE9820F220130903

thought about this, what does everyone think of using a UGLD on this, while we are in a stoppage period?

[johnbrickner]

I think a US war in Syria is a better predictor of gold prices and this stoppage period a better predictor of the Rand's value, if you want to make 3X bets. But, I'm no expert.

[Market Harmony]

There is an ongoing strike in S. Africa's platinum mines. When it first came about, the price of platinum did nothing. At that time gold was higher than platinum. It rose since the strike, and the price per ounce is higher (again) than gold. The trickle down effect of the physical platinum market on the paper platinum market was not immediate, but has eventually (after months of striking) finally shown some effect. And that is considering a small market and a country that is a top 2 producer... Gold is a much bigger market and there are less reasons why the physical fresh out-of-the-ground supply would demonstrably affect paper pricing.