Buy or Wait

[beauanderos]

The closer we approach the debt ceiling, or a failure to resolve the govt shutdown, I feel the powers that be will have a strong motive to manipulate the price of gold even lower than it now is. I've been watching the price per gram of 100 gram gold purchases, and it has now reached my earlier mental buy point of under $50. The question is... is right this moment ($49.83 per gram) a great time to buy, or could the price be forced even lower? Significantly lower? What do you think?

[gubni]

I'm not sure if it will get much lower, but I think it's going to go much higher soon. This is based on the theory that bad news means gold goes up, but I've seen lots of bad news and it continues to go down. My guess is people are selling paper to have liquid cash. If that is true they may not want to buy paper and it stays low.

[neilgin1]

The closer we approach the debt ceiling, or a failure to resolve the govt shutdown, I feel the powers that be will have a strong motive to manipulate the price of gold even lower than it now is. I've been watching the price per gram of 100 gram gold purchases, and it has now reached my earlier mental buy point of under $50. The question is... is right this moment ($49.83 per gram) a great time to buy, or could the price be forced even lower? Significantly lower? What do you think?

I think its always a good time to buy....and yeh, I see the "market" action, that is the "crimex", and the first thing that comes to mind is this, he who laughs last, laughs best.

I also found a very salient article in ZH, which deserves active consideration:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-1 ... wn-theater

[InfleXion]

Manipulation is easy in the silver market. Small supply * small price = fewer dollars needed to move.

Gold however is a far bigger beast. If they don't resolve the debt ceiling the exchanges won't be able to keep the world at bay IMO.

I would be happy buying at anything less than $1300 which is near average all-in cost of production.

Of course it can go lower, and may very well, but the exchanges' longevity suffers every time it does. Until they run out of metal it will be a shell game, but after that there is no doubt in my mind any previous price will be seen as a bargain.

[68Camaro]

Yeah, a couple months ago when I bought at $1197.

[beauanderos]

Well... I just pulled the trigger on some APMEX one grams, and Pamp Suisse one grams, and talked them into giving me the best pricing on another ten Credit Suisse.

http://www.apmex.com/category/9/gold-bars-gold-rounds-1-gram-400-oz

I'm paying with a Bank of America check that costs me 4%... but gives me zero percent interest for 18 months (actual APR is something like 2.66%). I'm thinking that these will pay for themselves long before 18 months are up.

Thanks for your imput, guys... the exercise of writing out my thoughts provided clarity to my thinking... which resulted in... "yeah, the market could go down another $50 or so, but it could just as easily reverse and head for the stratosphere." I would have been happy to save another $200, but I would have been pissed had I missed this opportunity. Also, if I had waited, they might have been out of stock when I chose to order (which I've seen happen)

AND... wouldn't you know it... the price per gram since I bought has already moved down another four cents. Grrrrh!

[beauanderos]

Aaaarggghhhh! Ray, you fool! You could have saved nine cents a gram by waiting longer.

[InfleXion]

I bought silver from $27 all the way down. No regrets. My personal central bank resources have been secured, mission accomplished. The way I look at it all metal purchases are 100% profit since metals are real money. I simply divested out of dollars that had no cost except for my time.

[theo]

Manipulation is easy in the silver market. Small supply * small price = fewer dollars needed to move.

Gold however is a far bigger beast. If they don't resolve the debt ceiling the exchanges won't be able to keep the world at bay IMO.

And yet gold has also suffered a serious decline over the past two years; almost 40% top to bottom compared to silver's 63% plunge. Aside from the apparent manipulation I think that the market sentiment towards PMs has been poisoned to such a degree that only a genuine currency crisis will unhinge gold and silver from their current trading range.

I don't think the debt ceiling debate will be good for anything more than a short term (and probably temporary) pop. It seems to be a kind of ritualized political combat that produces very little aside from increased campaign contributions and cable T.V. ratings. Meanwhile the important events occur far the public eye.

[scyther]

For what it's worth, I'd say don't buy any more, especially since you already have a lot. The price has fallen quite a bit since the 2011 peak over 2 years ago (about 2 1/2 for silver), and I think it will keep falling, or at best remain around this level, for the next several years. I'm done buying PMs for the foreseeable future, except some Washington quarters to fill out an album, whenever I get around to that...

[68Camaro]

Manipulation is easy in the silver market. Small supply * small price = fewer dollars needed to move.

Gold however is a far bigger beast. If they don't resolve the debt ceiling the exchanges won't be able to keep the world at bay IMO.

And yet gold has also suffered a serious decline over the past two years; almost 40% top to bottom compared to silver's 63% plunge. Aside from the apparent manipulation I think that the market sentiment towards PMs has been poisoned to such a degree that only a genuine currency crisis will unhinge gold and silver from their current trading range.

I don't think the debt ceiling debate will be good for anything more than a short term (and probably temporary) pop. It seems to be a kind of ritualized political combat that produces very little aside from increased campaign contributions and cable T.V. ratings. Meanwhile the important events occur far the public eye.

The plunge of 2011-2013 is still the rise of 2010. Both metals are still well above where I entered the market in a larger way during 2008-2010. And like Inflexion - if I have to trade between keeping my assets in electronic dollars (or at best paper dollars) vs. metal, then given where things are today I pick metal. Even if my metal acquisition is later proven to be non-optimum I still prefer that choice.

[theo]

I agree. Its just that I'm astounded that, in today's climate, PMs are not considered a viable investment. I suppose that, given our educational system, I should not be surprised.

Our current financial system is unsustainable, but as long it functions the price of PMs will be capped IMO. I get the impression that the system is so fragile at this point that any sustained notable rise in PMs (like 2009 - 2011) could pull it down.

[beauanderos]

Prices will remain capped until most current holders of PM's (us) all capitulate... by design. That's ok, consider silver and gold a buy one get one free deal, as they're at least 50% below where prices would be without the help they receive to remain low.

[68Camaro]

I agree. Its just that I'm astounded that, in today's climate, PMs are not considered a viable investment. I suppose that, given our educational system, I should not be surprised.

Our current financial system is unsustainable, but as long it functions the price of PMs will be capped IMO. I get the impression that the system is so fragile at this point that any sustained notable rise in PMs (like 2009 - 2011) could pull it down.

Yes, the larger population (of the west) has been brainwashed. This is the mentality of the west. I just barely escaped it. But it's not the mentality of the east, and the west is being taken to the woodshed in this. TPTB may think they are controlling things, but what they are doing is supporting the greatest migration of wealth transfer the world has seen, from the west to the east, as India and China buy gold and silver at a rate like there is no tomorrow.

Everyone in the west that has escaped the brainwashing has their own story. Mine has a number of components, and it's hard to tell what was most important, but they included:

a) I was born early enough to have direct and real experience with constitutional money - my first touch of money was silver, and I remembered thinking that we were having something taken away from us when they removed the silver from the coin in 65. And when slightly older I remember feeling like even more was slipping away when we lost the abilty to convert silver certificates (which resonated with me as having meaning) to real silver. To a lesser extent - even though pre-occupied with self-important trivia of early adult-hood - I remember thinking the same thing 17 years later in 82 when we lost the copper cent.

b) I was born and had my early years in the SW where real men (cowboys, ranchers, miners, explorers) carried real money and jangled it in the pockets - the silver dollar was still the big deal.

c) I had the inclination to think for myself, and further was professionally trained in that.

d) I had been raised on the ethic to work for a living, and to not expect other people to provide for me. By nature I valued hard assets more than paper assets, and was taught that I didn't fully own what I wasn't in full control of, and that I certainly wasn't in full control of anything that was in a bank, or was on an electronic balance sheet. At her death my mom still had a measureable amount of her fund/bond assests in paper certificates where she actually held the numbered certificate rather than "owned" a ledger entry in a database.

[InfleXion]

Our current financial system is unsustainable, but as long it functions the price of PMs will be capped IMO. I get the impression that the system is so fragile at this point that any sustained notable rise in PMs (like 2009 - 2011) could pull it down.

This is the prospect that leads me to question whether we will see triple digit silver. I still think it will reach the buying power equivalent of triple or even quadruple digits in today's dollars, but a definitive break above $50 will garner a lot of attention and could cause a cascade unless the exchanges can still pull the floor out at that point.

[slickeast]

From the looks of the market today, wait till its free

[neilgin1]

Yes, the larger population (of the west) has been brainwashed. This is the mentality of the west. I just barely escaped it. But it's not the mentality of the east, and the west is being taken to the woodshed in this. TPTB may think they are controlling things, but what they are doing is supporting the greatest migration of wealth transfer the world has seen, from the west to the east, as India and China buy gold and silver at a rate like there is no tomorrow.
.

68,
you're onto something WAY larger, than any of us "stacking".........I didn't mean to insult you by not quoting the rest of your post, ie, your worldview as far as finances go, but I read a translation the other day, of an op-ed, written in an "official" Chinese newspaper, and within it, the "author" just planted the SEED of war, that's why i'm "burying" it in this thread....basically what the author called for was a NEW global reserve currency...a "de-Americanization" of the world.

that's what got Quaddafi killed, he had renounced tearawritism, handed over all his "bad weapons", BUT he had been calling for a gold backed African dinar, and that was his signature on his death warrant. But China is not Libya, and in certain circles, thems fighting words.

this is from Xinhua: (and believe me, this writer isn't some crazy loose cannonball, he HAD to have had official leave to pen what you're about to read...read it carefully, it is a CLEAR warning/threat, and that's exactly how these cornered sociopaths, we call "our leaders" are going to take it...as a threat, and will respond accordingly....not today, nor tomorrow, but sometime in the future, near or far...relations with China will deteriorate. Timing?...I dunno, BUT, what i'm about about to paste is the SEED ...of war, being planted. forget all this other "news"...shutdowns, defaults, Wal-Marts besieged by EBT cardholders, Miley Cyrus.....THIS OP-ED, right here, dated 13 Oct....remember this. These boys in China just bought 2,000 tonnes of gold in the past two years, and Ron Paul is treated like the nutty grandfather for demanding an audit of OUR gold holdings....its sad and tragic, the faded glory of our beloved country, which I love, and you love.)

Commentary: U.S. fiscal failure warrants a de-Americanized world


By Xinhua writer Liu Chang

BEIJING, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world.

Emerging from the bloodshed of the Second World War as the world's most powerful nation, the United States has since then been trying to build a global empire by imposing a postwar world order, fueling recovery in Europe, and encouraging regime-change in nations that it deems hardly Washington-friendly.

With its seemingly unrivaled economic and military might, the United States has declared that it has vital national interests to protect in nearly every corner of the globe, and been habituated to meddling in the business of other countries and regions far away from its shores.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has gone to all lengths to appear before the world as the one that claims the moral high ground, yet covertly doing things that are as audacious as torturing prisoners of war, slaying civilians in drone attacks, and spying on world leaders.

Under what is known as the Pax-Americana, we fail to see a world where the United States is helping to defuse violence and conflicts, reduce poor and displaced population, and bring about real, lasting peace.

Moreover, instead of honoring its duties as a responsible leading power, a self-serving Washington has abused its superpower status and introduced even more chaos into the world by shifting financial risks overseas, instigating regional tensions amid territorial disputes, and fighting unwarranted wars under the cover of outright lies.

As a result, the world is still crawling its way out of an economic disaster thanks to the voracious Wall Street elites, while bombings and killings have become virtually daily routines in Iraq years after Washington claimed it has liberated its people from tyrannical rule.

Most recently, the cyclical stagnation in Washington for a viable bipartisan solution over a federal budget and an approval for raising debt ceiling has again left many nations' tremendous dollar assets in jeopardy and the international community highly agonized.

Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation have to be terminated, and a new world order should be put in place, according to which all nations, big or small, poor or rich, can have their key interests respected and protected on an equal footing.

To that end, several corner stones should be laid to underpin a de-Americanized world.

For starters, all nations need to hew to the basic principles of the international law, including respect for sovereignty, and keeping hands off domestic affairs of others.

Furthermore, the authority of the United Nations in handling global hotspot issues has to be recognized. That means no one has the right to wage any form of military action against others without a UN mandate.

Apart from that, the world's financial system also has to embrace some substantial reforms.

The developing and emerging market economies need to have more say in major international financial institutions including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, so that they could better reflect the transformations of the global economic and political landscape.

What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States.

Of course, the purpose of promoting these changes is not to completely toss the United States aside, which is also impossible. Rather, it is to encourage Washington to play a much more constructive role in addressing global affairs.

And among all options, it is suggested that the beltway politicians first begin with ending the pernicious impasse."

link: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indep ... 794246.htm

which I got from ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-1 ... e-currency

Now, what this guy says, if we're to be REAL with ourselves, isn't that far from the truth. I'm not wild about the Peoples Republic of China, they are NOT paragons of "freedom and Liberty, plus the PLA in Korea, killed TOO many good American boys, who DID turn back communist aggression, allowing South Korea to show the world, what FREE dynamic capitalism can do for a country, as opposed to the current "crony capitalism", we live under. I've always been proud of my small role as one of the guys who manned that line in Korea....it was one of the few post world war two US interventions, that was for the good.....so there it is....and the sad thing is, IT DOESNT HAVE TO BE LIKE THIS.

personally ?.....i'm heartbroken, I love America, I feel betrayed....more so now, that 22 November draws near. 50 years ago, that FINAL bullet, captured ON FILM by Abe Zapruder, which the coup plotters DID NOT factor in, to their wicked intentions, and so horrifically underlined the death of the Republic, underlined the WARNING that Ike spoke to us on his last Presidential address ...was the beginning of end, and we're all just riding the long slow descent, seemingly powerless to arrest the slide, where we have to endure the indignity of a COMMUNIST Chinese op-ed writer, speaking some truth, mingled with a threat and warning. God save the Republic, is my only hope.

[beauanderos]

Good post, Neil. Welcome back. Not only are the Chicoms seemingly on the mark with their comments, one of the better sources nowadays... featuring what I feel are unbiased (though not necessarily altruistic in their motives) interviews with "controversial" figures that the MSM will NOT give meaningfull air time to... is RT (Russia Today) on youtube. Before you skoff, check out some of their pieces and you'll see what I mean. Are they sowing propaganda? Maybe from their viewpoint they're trying to stir dissent, but I view their role as much more akin to Voice of America during past wars, an entity attempting to disseminate truth to people who are ignorant of what is really going on.

Unfortunately, both precious metals prices and truth are suppressed in this country.

[johnbrickner]

Spot on Neil and well said.

Why we need to teach our children the Mandarin language instead of a European language

This guy's propaganda is good also and a great example why we are losing our influence and China is gaining more from theirs.

If I was running an developing/emerging market country I'd be looking very favorably at what this man's words would mean to me. Decentralized the military and economic power/sovereignty of the US, and give it to the UN and me and my friends.Two areas where China continues to gain significant increases in influence.

The day and time will come when China will have enough power (financial, political, military, global influence, etc.) and international friends to stand up to U.S. and impress upon the world the several cornerstones suggested above.

Welcome to the NEW Communist Manifesto. Think it can't and won't be done? Read the old Manifesto. If (and it's a big one) our leaders were smart they'd be planning for the day and change their evil ways. I'm with you Neil, God save the Republic as it looks less and less likely WE can.

Where is that Rosetta Stone http://www.rosettastone.com/homeschool-chinese coupon?

And Ray, good job beating me on the propaganda view by 20 minutes! Luv ya Man

[InfleXion]

I think RT is most definitely propaganda (what news isn't?) however since there is practically no truth in the MSM (local propaganda) all RT has to do to accomplish their goal is to reveal the truth. Our leaders are making their job very easy. I don't ascribe to RT and nothing else, but certainly include it in my sphere of influence.

That a global currency switch is being brought up now makes a lot of sense. It was always on the agenda, and now there is a legitimate reason to support doing so with Oh Bummer refusing to do the will of the people, and holding our nation hostage with the spectre of default.

And lastly, it appears someone with deep pockets, possibly the deepest pockets of all is bent on whacking gold into submission. If I did not have my core position I would definitely be buying to ensure my position is solidified prior to the market breaking, but for those who already have core positions now is not the time to be complacent either. Get your supplies ready, because they are not pulling any punches. At this rate the price is probably going to go down or stay where it is until the exchanges run out of gold, but I have a feeling all that could be overshadowed by more pressing headlines because these are the last stages of manipulation IMO.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-1 ... eak-market

[Double3]

From the looks of the market today, wait till its free

That would help my DCA.

[beauanderos]

well... putting a statistical slant to things... so far 83.3% of our membership feels that gold will continue to drop. A good contrarian indicator?

[InfleXion]

Well, Goldman says it's going to drop too. So if contrarian indicators mean anything they are flashing right now, but this is bizarro world.

[neilgin1]

Good post, Neil. Welcome back. Not only are the Chicoms seemingly on the mark with their comments, one of the better sources nowadays... featuring what I feel are unbiased (though not necessarily altruistic in their motives) interviews with "controversial" figures that the MSM will NOT give meaningfull air time to... is RT (Russia Today) on youtube. Before you skoff, check out some of their pieces and you'll see what I mean. Are they sowing propaganda? Maybe from their viewpoint they're trying to stir dissent, but I view their role as much more akin to Voice of America during past wars, an entity attempting to disseminate truth to people who are ignorant of what is really going on.

Unfortunately, both precious metals prices and truth are suppressed in this country.

skoff?....no way.....you don't think I watch RT?....to me, its HUMILIATING, ....as an American, that we have to use commie news org's to get ANY semblance of the "truth"......and God knows what the REAL truth is, as far as the stuff that's happening in the world, but RT makes the old VOA seem like amateur hour....Putin's one smart cookie.....and the Chinese?...a 6,000 year old civilization?....sociopaths are leading us....who knows? maybe all these pricks, that .001% are in it together. bless you OB, n.

[TwoPenniesEarned]

Unfortunately, both precious metals prices and truth are suppressed in this country.

As to the PM Suppression, note how consistently China has been buying. This is over 2,000 tons in the last two years alone.

I think it is safe to say that China now matches or exceeds Germany's gold holdings...and none of us believe that the US still has the 8,900 tons they claim.

So yeah, the writing is definately on the wall. Keep stacking!