So wtf is going on with silver?

[mrvegas]

As some of you know I've been out of the silver game for about a year and a half. Part of me is happy it dropped because it's a good time for me to buy again but part of me is confused. I just figured with our economy still messed up and no progress with our national debt that silver and also gold would be higher. Has more silver been produced? Is there something major that happened that I don't know about?

[christostock]

Nope and nope.
Same sh!t different day

[scyther]

As some of you know I've been out of the silver game for about a year and a half. Part of me is happy it dropped because it's a good time for me to buy again but part of me is confused. I just figured with our economy still messed up and no progress with our national debt that silver and also gold would be higher. Has more silver been produced? Is there something major that happened that I don't know about?

More silver is always being produced. The high prices of recent years have caused more mines to be opened and more silver to be produced.

[rainsonme]

Also inflation is low for the near term; oil and Natural gas prices dropping; grain harvests are at record levels globally. With Energy and Food prices dropping, and labor in abundant supply, it is tough to get inflation. Others also add that all the money being printed has no momentum; it sits on banks balance sheets and feeds stock market speculation, but it isnt creating demand. The Yen and the Yuan are being devalued at rates EVEN greater than the dollar. So, without inflation, gold and silver priced in relatively strong dollars, go down. There needs to be a "capitulation" in gold selling, so a firm bottom can form. Different sources list what the average price of extracting and refining an ounce of gold, but I havent seen anyone say it was lower than $850 an ounce, so I think capitulation for gold will come somewhere between $850 and $1100 an ounce. Silver will likely follow gold.

[wolvesdad]

Silver is a long term hedge against all the bad stuff. It is an asset tool for helping to try and preserve family wealth through bad times.

And right now, even though all the real data points to------AH S***, WE'RE GOING TO CRASH!!!!,
For the time being, the so called Quantitative Easing, and the HUGE oil and NATURAL GAS BOOM work to prop up the Market and give the common public the immpression that everything is alright.

Buy silver if you have the cash for it (but keep 2-6 months IN cash first) and you don't already have more than 10% of your combined worth/wealth in precious metals.

I'm going to say, that if things haven't gotten rocky by March '14 and silver prices have stayed between $20-$25, then silver will probably drop for the following short term. Oil and natural gas boom has pumped HUGE amounts of cash into the market. Unless something greater has rocked the boat before March, then we may well be in for a relative 2-7 year 'stable' period. but i personally have a hunch that we have some small-medium rocking that will be going on in the next 4-6 months.

Either way, if you can buy and sit on silver at $20/oz, then do it. But anyone looking to 'invest' or capitalize in silver profits in the next 2-7 years are probably going to be dissapointed.

Silver=long term.

[christostock]

I am glad to hear that some people can speak intelligently about something they know nothing about.
Sounds exactly like the money channel analysts.
50% of them are right and 50% of them are wrong.
1 fact is that the PM market is manipulated and does not make sense or move with any consistency.
So who knows the real answers.
Here is the only thing that I have ever heard that is 100% truthful,
What will happen to the prices of silver and gold?
Might go up, might go down, on the weekends it doesn't change much.

OK - I am ready for my beating now

[beauanderos]

I am glad to hear that some people can speak intelligently about something they know nothing about.
Sounds exactly like the money channel analysts.
50% of them are right and 50% of them are wrong.
1 fact is that the PM market is manipulated and does not make sense or move with any consistency.
So who knows the real answers.
Here is the only thing that I have ever heard that is 100% truthful,
What will happen to the prices of silver and gold?
Might go up, might go down, on the weekends it doesn't change much.

OK - I am ready for my beating now

It would be fun to be a fly on the wall at the JPM proprietary metals trading desks. They have their plans, know how to execute them, probably even get psych advice from an in-house shrink/propagandist. So they set about their nefarious tasks... and bam... at times the mark, to their consternation, probably even turns in directions they don't expect!

What gets me is the well-meaning posts touting support levels of this or that broken, or how certain targets will be hit on the next upside-move based on fibonacci numbers... etc. A bunch of crap, that is useless and meanless in manipulated markets... as any number can be painted to incite these techies to herd behavior, and believe me, the guys who are making the metals dance know all the moves. I'm wondering why some genius in the back room hasn't decided to use QE to infinity to push EVERYTHING (oil prices for one) down to more affordable levels? If markets are controllable in such fashion, why not control all of them with the increasingly worthless money being created? At least we would be the beneficiaries of such policies, much akin to how we have benefited by being the reserve currency.

Is that the next step? Before we declare a default (like a homeowner knowing they are going to declare bankrupty, so they intentionally run up their credit cards to the limit) are the PPT and other entities going to push the stock market to the stratosphere? Is the gov't playing the stock market with funny money and pocketing profits through proxy traders?

[mrvegas]

I have a small amount of money....not nearly enough as I would like or to even say I'm "comfortable" but I would like to invest a majority of it. I feel safe with silver...it's in my possession. On the other side I would love to invest and see some major gains in the short term and I'm just not sure how to do that. I'm thinking about investing in Stock directly. Maybe walmart? Verizon? Seems like technology and maybe pharmaceuticals is the way to go? A little off subject but any opinions on how to invest let's say 2 grand?

[68Camaro]

I have a small amount of money....not nearly enough as I would like or to even say I'm "comfortable" but I would like to invest a majority of it. I feel safe with silver...it's in my possession. On the other side I would love to invest and see some major gains in the short term and I'm just not sure how to do that. I'm thinking about investing in Stock directly. Maybe walmart? Verizon? Seems like technology and maybe pharmaceuticals is the way to go? A little off subject but any opinions on how to invest let's say 2 grand?

I don't have anything which is in my direct control in paper, which I can't afford to completely lose. And I have nothing in paper at the moment.

[68Camaro]

...

I'm wondering why some genius in the back room hasn't decided to use QE to infinity to push EVERYTHING (oil prices for one) down to more affordable levels? If markets are controllable in such fashion, why not control all of them with the increasingly worthless money being created? ...

Is that the next step? Before we declare a default (like a homeowner knowing they are going to declare bankrupty, so they intentionally run up their credit cards to the limit) are the PPT and other entities going to push the stock market to the stratosphere? Is the gov't playing the stock market with funny money and pocketing profits through proxy traders?

I truly don't know how much of this is being controlled at a high level. I suspect it's not fully controlled in the sense that there is some overarching PTB who is playing all the strings and getting exactly what they want as a response - but rather that it is being affected at an intermediate level such that most of the people playing this are playing with explosives they don't understand, and that they truly don't understand the consequences and side-effects of what they are doing. But I also believe there are a few who are near that level, who know enough about what is going on such that they know how to position and protect themselves so that when the music stops they will be holding all the cards, leaving the rest to fall on their butts.

There are also many competing interests so I don't know which will get the upper hand in the end. It's all about power and control so follow that thought. From the US view the USD has to be king, so the US will (try to) do what it takes to keep the USD supreme - killing PMs, faking statistics, pretending all is well, propping up the DJII, S&P500 and NASDAQ and the TBTFs, and printing money. In contrast I believe the BRIC view is that they've had enough of that crap but are biding their time to build their connections and their own asset base, so they can bypass the USD. (And within that bloc they are competing amongst themselves.)

So yes, I think the paper market is going up until it crashes, and there will be PM price pressure from the futures markets until there is a demonstrated shortage of physical. I'm slightly unsettled by it, knowing that it's all manipulated, but I also intend to buy low while I can.

[edit to correct a typo]

[baggerman]

I look at the PM market like this.
1.Why did I start stacking in the first place? Because I don't trust paper or the idiots in Washington DC to do anything to curb out debt problem.
2. Has either of the reasons I started stacking changed? NO
3. Do I place myself in a situation where I could be FORCED to sell PMs to cover ANY of my expenses? NO
4. What should I do from here? Continue to stack, see question 1!

[neilgin1]

I have a small amount of money....not nearly enough as I would like or to even say I'm "comfortable" but I would like to invest a majority of it. I feel safe with silver...it's in my possession. On the other side I would love to invest and see some major gains in the short term and I'm just not sure how to do that. I'm thinking about investing in Stock directly. Maybe walmart? Verizon? Seems like technology and maybe pharmaceuticals is the way to go? A little off subject but any opinions on how to invest let's say 2 grand?

listen brother......you HAVE to buy insurance for your car...right?....buying and STACKING silver is buying "insurance" for all those slips of paper, "that small amount of money".

just keep it simple, and keep it safe, stick with American silver coinage, meaning 90% silver dimes, quarters and halves, as well as American Silver Eagles.

start with rolls of Roosevelt dimes, Washington quarters, and Franklin/Kennedy Halves, though the one year of Kennedy's in 90%, 1964, LARGE numbers were minted, that's a good thing....1965-70, the Kennedy Halve was diluted to 40% silver, that's .15 a troy ounce, Quarters and Halves in rolls come in $10 face value, dimes in $5 face value......here's a good website, to start the learning curve:

http://www.coinflation.com/

if you want stocks, go for it.....but I just read the "last bear" just threw in the towel, so.....farmland with wood and water and very few people nearby, THATS the trade imo.....but i'm crazy.

[neilgin1]

I have a small amount of money....not nearly enough as I would like or to even say I'm "comfortable" but I would like to invest a majority of it. I feel safe with silver...it's in my possession. On the other side I would love to invest and see some major gains in the short term and I'm just not sure how to do that. I'm thinking about investing in Stock directly. Maybe walmart? Verizon? Seems like technology and maybe pharmaceuticals is the way to go? A little off subject but any opinions on how to invest let's say 2 grand?

I don't have anything which is in my direct control in paper, which I can't afford to completely lose. And I have nothing in paper at the moment.

amen.

[InfleXion]

Price = Demand / Supply
Supply = 98% paper/electronic
Demand = Diverted into paper/electronic
Paper/Electronic = Bought on margin/leverage aka money that doesn't exist therefore compounding the skew

My advice would be not to concern yourself with price (if you are a stacker as opposed to a flipper). It is an arbitrary identifier driven by non-real assets. Know the fundamentals, do what you feel comfortable with, and be patient.

Consider that the global silver market could be entirely bought up with about $30 billion. Then consider that the shadow banking derivatives were reported at $1.7 quadrillion over a year ago. The silver market is a powder keg, but anyone with the means to light a match is afraid to / knows better than to test the powers.

[rainsonme]

Christostock wrote: I am glad to hear that some people can speak intelligently about something they know nothing about.

I am not sure if he was referring to my comments, but he certainly could have. I do talk too much.

But listen to Don Coxe at CoxeAdvisors.com. He has a 20-30 minute broadcast each week. He was a BMO institutional commoidty analyst for years. He really is a very smart guy with no particular axe to grind, other than a strong interest in commodities. I think his insight into the near term commodity situation, including precious metals, is worth listening to.

[blackrabbit]

Consider that the global silver market could be entirely bought up with about $30 billion. Then consider that the shadow banking derivatives were reported at $1.7 quadrillion over a year ago. The silver market is a powder keg, but anyone with the means to light a match is afraid to / knows better than to test the powers.

Heck, they put out 80 billion a month now until they "taper."

[johnbrickner]

if you want stocks, go for it.....but I just read the "last bear" just threw in the towel, so.....farmland with wood and water and very few people nearby, THATS the trade imo.....but i'm crazy.

Yeah, crazy like a fox Neil, like a fox.

[ZenOps]

You would think with the price action to nearly $50 and back to $20, that there would have been some sort of shortage somewhere where a large or even small player did not get their silver.

But nothing... Everyone got what they wanted at whatever price they bought or sold at. It really flies hard in the face of "silver shortage" if everyone has as much as they want.

So I guess most of the silver players have gone back to numismatics it seems. If the bandwagon for "shortage" has proven false, might as well make some money on something else.

[68Camaro]

$20 is higher than it has ever been (not counting the Hunt Bros - which isn't accurate price discovery) up til 2010 so its not like the market has crashed. Even with that there was a large reserve of silver that has had to be redistributed in addition to the annual new product. So shortages have only been with intermediate product in the supply line so far. The reserves appear to have shrunk and demand continues to increase. A shortage will become evident in good time.

[Tourney64]

Dollar is up. Commodities are down. There is no reason whatsoever why the dollar should be up, so keep stacking.

[ZenOps]

What makes me wonder is that according to the USGS, nickel is about 86x more common than silver.

And yet they are melting down all Canadian pure coinage (nickel, dime, quarter, half and dollar) and have started melting down British coinage (five and ten pence). If silver is not in industrial shortage, and nickel is that much more common - you would think that they would just leave the nickel coinage alone.

Most of the poorer commonwealth nations moved to 2% nickel plated iron a long time ago. And of course as mentioned before, you have to go to the one euro coin before you get a couple grams of 25% nickel for "wealthy" european nations.

[68Camaro]

Just took pie out of oven, so relaxing a bit.

BTW - a belated (month late) Canadian Happy Thanksgiving to all our friends up north!

Independently checked using LME and silver institute data by worldwide production (rather than elemental rarity) and that's about the right ratio. Nickel was produced at a rate about 70x silver. I doubt pricing models are linear over the entire curve, but let's see what results. One might think that nickel might be priced at 1/70th of silver. At $6/lb it's about 1.3 cents per gram, or roughly 40-45 cents per toz. Which is roughly 1/50th of silver.

So silver might be argued to be undervalued relative to nickel - presuming nickel is fairly valued. However I doubt they track each other directly, but over a long period of time you might expect they would come close.

As to why they are recovering the nickel - why are you surprised? It's "free" money to them. They can replace 1000 tons of nickel nickels with 1000 tons of steel nickels, and make a profit. I'm slightly shocked the US hasn't done the same with the copper cent and the US nickel, even though the margin would be lower - but then we've got a bunch of idiots in our government (regardless of party).

[68Camaro]

Interesting thing about the silver production stats is that Mexico, China, and Peru are the top three producers and pull out more more silver between them than the rest of the world together. If China could control production in Peru and Mexico (and they are buying mines), it wouldn't take much for them to control the global silver market.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/su ... roduction/

[beauanderos]

Interesting thing about the silver production stats is that Mexico, China, and Peru are the top three producers and pull out more more silver between them than the rest of the world together. If China could control production in Peru and Mexico (and they are buying mines), it wouldn't take much for them to control the global silver market.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/su ... roduction/

这就是我们的议程上，圆圆的眼睛。我们计划以控制各种形式的财富

[68Camaro]

Interesting thing about the silver production stats is that Mexico, China, and Peru are the top three producers and pull out more more silver between them than the rest of the world together. If China could control production in Peru and Mexico (and they are buying mines), it wouldn't take much for them to control the global silver market.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/su ... roduction/

这就是我们的议程上，圆圆的眼睛。我们计划以控制各种形式的财富

Crap, I wasn't going to do it, but you made me go to Google translate.