Is there no real a silver shortage....

[Copper Catcher]

There Is No Silver Shortage and all Measurable Forms of Demand: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2XMghdyusE

[scyther]

I wanted to watch it, but I just can't stand the way he talks. I got to 41 seconds. I've never believed in the silver shortage, though, I'm not saying he's wrong.

[68Camaro]

I'm not going to watch it before I post this, no time for it, but there is silver to be had at current demand. There is no shortage per se. But much of supply is recycle which is in decline (because so much of that was related to the film industry) and other parts of the supply are stockpile reserve which are being eaten up. New production is only climbing slowly (and will peak) while demand is rising faster. When reserves are depleted and demand exceeds supply then prices will rise until demand matches supply. That's fundamental fair value economics.

[InfleXion]

I would agree there is not a shortage. The contention has been that due to continual supply depletion there will eventually be a shortage unless something changes. For example a century ago the government had a 10 billion oz silver stockpile. Today that is a flat zero which just leaves the exchanges, which are also experiencing record outflows of metal, particularly gold but the amount of available silver accounts for less than a year's worth of demand, a thin line to tread. Every year the amount of silver mined is insufficient to meet total demand, therefore silver must be bought from existing hands or recycled to meet the shortfall. This is not as much of an issue in a rising market where people are happy to sell for a profit or where recycling is profitable, but in a sideways or downward market where recycling may not be worth the payoff and where people are not so eager to sell for a loss, for the world's second most useful industrial commodity to be dependent upon peoples' willingness to sell is a recipe for disaster. It isn't in a shortage until it is. The trend is pretty obvious.

[IdahoCopper]

So the gist of all this is when silver does its next moonshot to $40 or $50, sell the entire stack, wait for the manipulators to bring the price back down to $20 or $25, and re-buy an even bigger stack. There is no silver shortage.

[68Camaro]

So the gist of all this is when silver does its next moonshot to $40 or $50, sell the entire stack, wait for the manipulators to bring the price back down to $20 or $25, and re-buy an even bigger stack. There is no silver shortage.

Though I often find myself on opposite ends of arguments from you, there is a measure of truth in what you say above. Where I deviate from that is important, however.

1) I would never "sell the entire stack". Because that would presume I could replace it later. But in the situation we find ourselves in is that I would never trust that assumption. (Caveat* below.)

2) There is no silver shortage - now. But there could be a silver shortage as fast as overnight. All it takes to change that equation is demand, and demand can be generated overnight, by any number of issues. The demand that causes price to change for the long-term is demand that causes people to want to hold silver rather than flip it, and that is - fundamentally - insecurity about other forms of perceived wealth / monies.

*I am trying to build up a physical trading reserve of expendable silver - a percent of holding which I could trade in the chances that we might cycle again, but which I could tolerate to lose (or limit my profits) if we didn't cycle down again. That might allow me to take advantage of this situation if we cycle one or more additinonal times before a longer-term crisis. I wasn't in that position 2 years ago. I might be the next time.

[theo]

So the gist of all this is when silver does its next moonshot to $40 or $50, sell the entire stack, wait for the manipulators to bring the price back down to $20 or $25, and re-buy an even bigger stack. There is no silver shortage.

Though I often find myself on opposite ends of arguments from you, there is a measure of truth in what you say above. Where I deviate from that is important, however.

1) I would never "sell the entire stack". Because that would presume I could replace it later. But in the situation we find ourselves in is that I would never trust that assumption. (Caveat* below.)

2) There is no silver shortage - now. But there could be a silver shortage as fast as overnight. All it takes to change that equation is demand, and demand can be generated overnight, by any number of issues. The demand that causes price to change for the long-term is demand that causes people to want to hold silver rather than flip it, and that is - fundamentally - insecurity about other forms of perceived wealth / monies.

*I am trying to build up a physical trading reserve of expendable silver - a percent of holding which I could trade in the chances that we might cycle again, but which I could tolerate to lose (or limit my profits) if we didn't cycle down again. That might allow me to take advantage of this situation if we cycle one or more additinonal times before a longer-term crisis. I wasn't in that position 2 years ago. I might be the next time.

Just curious. Would your physical trading reserve be a different composition (90%, .999 etc) than your core stack?

While its good that you have a PTR I wouldn't think in terms of the timing next up cycle because I doubt there will be one similar to 2011. IMO the May 1st 2011 take down was done to punish the silver paper traders who were on heavy margin to profit from the bull market. It was likely timed to coincide with the Bin Ladin raid to escape closer scrutiny into what was a pretty bold manipulation. That take down and the ensuing bear market (60% + down) did tremendous damage to the perception of PMs as legitimate investment options in the eyes of the trading public. Those who want to make quick paper profits are on to greener pastures (the general stock market, Real Estate and even perhaps Bitcoin) and the they won't return to PMs for some time if ever. I fear that it will take a genuine currency crisis to get silver back about 40 and gold above 1650.

I would think of the PTR as something that could be traded another for a comparatively under-valued asset should the opportunity present itself.

[InfleXion]

Take Kyle Bass for example, he runs a hedge fund with more than a $trillion at its disposal. This one man has the firepower to buy the entire global silver market thirty times over in a matter of trades IF he wanted to. He is one man, but there are many others like him. Sprott could do it too, at least once over, which is all it would take. And sure Bass would never do it because he has obligations, etc, but he could if he wanted to shoot the moon. The fact that this could even occur is ludicrous and blatantly illustrates how out of touch with reality this market is. There are close to $2 quadrillion in toxic rehypothecated vacuous derivatives floating around that will eventually need to seek tangible assets when the house of cards comes down. To sell your stack with the assumption that you can get it back is playing with fire, however likely it may be. I prefer not to gamble with my future, and am holding my core position with an iron grip no matter the price action.

[scyther]

If Sprott or Bass could do it, why don't they? We know they think silver is undervalued, and want people to recognize its true value. Why not buy all the supply to wake people up?