90% Silver Dry up First?

[paymehigher]

Do you believe that 90% silver will be the first to dry up after the masses realize that the economy is collapsing? Do you think we will see massive premiums on 90% silver? I would love to hear from some of you who buy/sell 90% silver a lot, do you think there is that much 90% silver left out there?

[christostock]

If you want to find out how much 90% silver is out there being held,
put an add on your local craigslist that you want to buy 90% silver and you will pay 20X face or 25X face.
You will be amazed and overwhelmed at how much 90% there is for sale at those prices

[pennypicker]

do you think there is that much 90% silver left out there?

In 1964 alone the government produced over 430 million Kennedy halves. That's more than all the ASE's produced from 1986 to current. Also in 1964 1.2 billion quarters were produced along with 2.3 billion dimes--and were only talking about one year. Sure a lot has been melted over the years but the amount of 90% still out there is massive to say the least.

[Saabman]

I couldn't find it with a quick search, but I believe someone here (maybe CnC?) ran the numbers for dimes. Something like "if 99% of all silvers dimes have been taken out of circulation, how many would be left in the wild?" I think it was 16 million or something close to that.

[beauanderos]

If your question is will 90% junk silver dry up before other forms... I can ABSOLUTELY guarantee you that it WILL. .999 silver in however many forms is being fabricated now and in the foreseeable future... whereas 90% is no longer produced, and the remaining pool shrinks each day.

The answer gets trickier as to when that happens. I'll leave that for brighter minds than mine... I'm just happy we have this buying opportunity for as long as it lasts.

[InfleXion]

I do expect all 90% silver to become collectible eventually, although not necessarily in any of our lifetimes However I don't think it will be due to the economy collapsing or anything like that. Economic collapse will lead to a desire for any and all silver for hoarding purposes, for which it is less likely to be melted down vs. industrial demand (although in a SHTF situation I will definitely make any would be sellers melt in front of me to confirm authenticity). However on a longer timeline I believe industrial demand will eventually lead 90% to become rare as it is slowly but surely melted down. It seems reasonable to me that folks would be more likely to send their 90% to a smelter than their bullion since even base bullion typically has a higher premium. While 90% premiums hit unprecedented levels this summer due to supply chain shortages, that was more so due to it being more readily available than bullion, and thus the market hiking prices to what people were willing to pay as opposed to it being truly scarce.

[beauanderos]

Gresham's Law will play out in the coming decade. I can't imagine there is a single one among us who doesn't divide their best stuff from their worst. Over time, the worst items get sold, melted, etc... progressively leaving only the higher grade numie items. As this occurs, I can see the day arriving when high MS graded BU Mercs and Walkers, Morgans, etc command premiums like pre-33 gold does now. There will come the day when there is a feeding frenzy to snatch up silver in ANY form, and those who wait too long might have money to convert... but they won't be able to outbid the fanatics on ebay with deeper pockets. You'll still be able to find silver... you just won't be able to afford it. And you'll keep telling yourself that the rising prices are insane, and that you are being rational by waiting for the fad to fade... but it won't. And if investment grade silver truly is scarcer than gold (this is open to debate) than the day will come when silver hits one to one with gold... and then passes it.

Within our lifetime?

Yes, courtesy of quantitative easing to infinity. However... you'll need all that "wealth" just to survive... and the 99% who didn't have the foresight to make similar plans will make those days an ugly place to be.

I give it five years, maximum... before PM's "reset." The dollar will be dead by then.

[Rodebaugh]

Will 90% Silver Dry up First?
In short.....NO
Long answer......it may become scarce to market at times as any supply vs demand commodity does, but rest assured it is the king and the reserves are there.

Folks, lets cut the speculation hogwash and run the numbers. 90% is going nowhere and here's why.

Let us evaluate the commonly traded 90% that the US has minted:
21351.5 metric tons Washington Quarters
15756.0 metric tons Bens, Kens, and Walkers
20906.6 metric tons Mercs and Rosies.

58014 METRIC TONS of Common 90%. Folks this doesn't include the Barber series and Standing Libertys we often see in junk, and i'm not even counting the first Peace or Morgan dollar in this number because that would blow this comparison to orbit. These are just the common fractional 90% coins. Wait!, I know what your thinking and resist the urge of...."but gee wiz doc; I was told they melted a bunch of them there silver coins in da 80's". My answer.....So What? Let's say they melted a full 50% of them (which is grossly inflated estimate). That still leaves us with approximately 30 THOUSAND METRIC TONS of fractional common 90% floating around.

So how much is 30K Met-tons? Well lets compare it the second most popular bullion vehicle ever produced; the Silver American eagle. There have been 10474.4 metric tons of those minted. Assuming no attrition (melting or loss) this still places the all high and mighty ASE at a 1:3 ratio once to ounce in relation to 90%.

Time out for review:
-There is a bunch of 90%
-Even if half of the 90% ever minted has been melted (which is so ridiculous I'm ashamed that I typed it) there is still a bunch of it.
-So much of it that ASEs to 90% = 1:3
-At this rate If you can wait another 60+ years ASEs will be as common (per ounce) as 90%.

[beauanderos]

Will 90% Silver Dry up First?
In short.....NO
Long answer......it may become scarce to market at times as any supply vs demand commodity does, but rest assured it is the king and the reserves are there.

Folks, lets cut the speculation hogwash and run the numbers. 90% is going nowhere and here's why.

Let us evaluate the commonly traded 90% that the US has minted:
21351.5 metric tons Washington Quarters
15756.0 metric tons Bens, Kens, and Walkers
20906.6 metric tons Mercs and Rosies.

58014 METRIC TONS of Common 90%. Folks this doesn't include the Barber series and Standing Libertys we often see in junk, and i'm not even counting the first Peace or Morgan dollar in this number because that would blow this comparison to orbit. These are just the common fractional 90% coins. Wait!, I know what your thinking and resist the urge of...."but gee wiz doc; I was told they melted a bunch of them there silver coins in da 80's". My answer.....So What? Let's say they melted a full 50% of them (which is grossly inflated estimate). That still leaves us with approximately 30 THOUSAND METRIC TONS of fractional common 90% floating around.

So how much is 30K Met-tons? Well lets compare it the second most popular bullion vehicle ever produced; the Silver American eagle. There have been 10474.4 metric tons of those minted. Assuming no attrition (melting or loss) this still places the all high and mighty ASE at a 1:3 ratio once to ounce in relation to 90%.

Time out for review:
-There is a bunch of 90%
-Even if half of the 90% ever minted has been melted (which is so ridiculous I'm ashamed that I typed it) there is still a bunch of it.
-So much of it that ASEs to 90% = 1:3
-At this rate If you can wait another 60+ years ASEs will be as common (per ounce) as 90%.

I actually hope that Doc is correct, but I think I'll believe the multiple experts who feel as much as 90% of the 90% is already gone. Now then, is ten percent of the original minted still alot? Sure, plenty for our purposes, but a heck of a long way from being sufficient to service the desires of the massed fleeing-from-fiat piranhas that will one day circle to nip the flesh from the drowning silver cow.

Sorry, Doc... I agree with you on most things, but we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. (I'm not saying the high-graded numies will ever disappear... but during the previous spike in 1979 - 1980 people were selling BU Morgans for melt ~ $40)

one further point. Silver doesn't have to be "sold" for melt to disappear from circulation. Every one of us runs across 90% coins so butt ugly that you wouldn't dare sell it to another member. I just culled at least 40% from a bad lot of Mercs I got not too long ago. I'll sell them to APMEX on the next spike. Don't ask me what they do with them... although I suspect they mark them up and market them as pre-1920's Merc rolls sold at a premium.

Chris... you contradicted yourself. Didn't you say let's cut the speculation hogwash?

[beauanderos]

btw... there is no definitive proof that a certain percentage of coins WERE or WEREN'T melted over the years (not just during the Big Spike)... but I have spoken with a large midwest coin dealer who told me he routinely sends off $10000 of face (he stated monthly) to be smelted... on a continuing basis. That has a tendency to add up over time.

[paymehigher]

So do you think it would be good to invest a small portion of your stack into numi 90% silver coins? Thanks guys, lots of great information here.

[beauanderos]

So do you think it would be good to invest a small portion of your stack into numi 90% silver coins? Thanks guys, lots of great information here.

If you're happy with the size of the stack of your 90% junk silver and generic .999... it couldn't hurt to "invest" in some numies. Conventional wisdom is to seek key dates, and then buy the highest-graded specimens you can afford. A simpler goal might be to try and put together a high grade Twentieth Century Type Set.

[paymehigher]

What series would have the most upside? One problem might be that those coins might not hold there premium when the POS goes up. They may be sold for melt at that point.

[68Camaro]

I'm with Ray on this, not that it is critical. I was going to comment last night but i was just too tired to post then. Recycle coin silver has been sucked into supply for 40 years, and while there is still "a lot" left relative to what was minted, I'd be shocked if it was more than 20% of original, and I was going to guess it at more like the 10% number that Ray threw out.

[beauanderos]

I'm with Ray on this, not that it is critical. I was going to comment last night but i was just too tired to post then. Recycle coin silver has been sucked into supply for 40 years, and while there is still "a lot" left relative to what was minted, I'd be shocked if it was more than 20% of original, and I was going to guess it at more like the 10% number that Ray threw out.

We're all guessing... but here's a more definitive article from an insider...

http://www.pcgs.com/News/After-The-Melts-Whats-Left-In-Silver-Coins

also... The Big Silver Melt suggests 75% melted

[pennypicker]

I give it five years, maximum... before PM's "reset." The dollar will be dead by then.

This is perhaps the most compelling and provocative statement I have read during my time at Realcent. I'm going to have to sit back in my chair and ponder it for a while. Excellent post.

[Rodebaugh]

Nice to see you take the bait Ray. I knew my post would illicit your response. It's a nice added bonus to get Rich on board as well as he is another member of whom I hold in high regard.

Fellas don't take offense, but please allow me to continue to play the antagonist on this one in a effort to explore the subject further.

Another thing to think about: The US Mint did not stop producing 90% in 1964, they only slowed it.
I'm at the office using the boss's computer and I don't have access to excel to help extrapolate Mint/Proof Set 90% coinage into hard figures for comparison but I am sure that there will be several hundred to a few thousand Metric tons in that pool. Furthermore I would venture to theorize that attrition of that silver pool has been minimal at 10% or less coins lost to smelting.

Furthermore, one must be careful in speaking with any large Midwest coin dealer that states that he routinely sends a monthly $10000 face to the smelt shop. I don't think he is pulling anyone's leg or is acting to deceive you Ray by telling you this. In fact I believe him. However I do not think we should take this statement at face value. The question is this: Does the melt shop actually melt that 90% silver or just wholesale it back out? I have heard two answers on this from the cooks themselves; yes and no. Yes, when silver availability to market through traditional venues is not fulfilling demand. No, this silver is not needed to satisfy current production demands and is in fact far more valuable wholesaled once again to another distributor or it is simply warehoused.

I'd like to hear from our resident Darth Melter aka Market Harmony to see what the typical percentages of Ag types he recycles? I don't need need solid numbers Mike; rough estimates would satisfy my curiosity. Out of 1000tozs of payable scarp how much is flat and stem ware, .999 rounds, 90%, other?

Doc

[beauanderos]

Nice to see you take the bait Ray. I knew my post would illicit your response. It's a nice added bonus to get Rich on board as well as he is another member of whom I hold in high regard.

Fellas don't take offense, but please allow me to continue to play the antagonist on this one in a effort to explore the subject further.

Another thing to think about: The US Mint did not stop producing 90% in 1964, they only slowed it.
I'm at the office using the boss's computer and I don't have access to excel to help extrapolate Mint/Proof Set 90% coinage into hard figures for comparison but I am sure that there will be several hundred to a few thousand Metric tons in that pool. Furthermore I would venture to theorize that attrition of that silver pool has been minimal at 10% or less coins lost to smelting.

Furthermore, one must be careful in speaking with any large Midwest coin dealer that states that he routinely sends a monthly $10000 face to the smelt shop. I don't think he is pulling anyone's leg or is acting to deceive you Ray by telling you this. In fact I believe him. However I do not think we should take this statement at face value. The question is this: Does the melt shop actually melt that 90% silver or just wholesale it back out? I have heard two answers on this from the cooks themselves; yes and no. Yes, when silver availability to market through traditional venues is not fulfilling demand. No, this silver is not needed to satisfy current production demands and is in fact far more valuable wholesaled once again to another distributor or it is simply warehoused.

I'd like to hear from our resident Darth Melter aka Market Harmony to see what the typical percentages of Ag types he recycles? I don't need need solid numbers Mike; rough estimates would satisfy my curiosity. Out of 1000tozs of payable scarp how much is flat and stem ware, .999 rounds, 90%, other?

Doc

I would imagine very little of the post 1980 period proofs have been melted down, five percent of them if that (at most). However, those mintages are usually in the 3 to 5 million range, depending on coin type, so I can't imagine the metric tonnage of them would be high.

You raise an interesting point about the smelters. Hadn't considered them farming the stuff back out... but they're gonna go where the profit is greatest.

[68Camaro]

Wouldn't be surprised if some of the current smelters resold at least some coin, given premiums based on the crappy coin I've seen in bags. But when you read the big melt book and the follow ups by the people that were working that, it's clear they were operating at the level of thousands of tons over an extended time period. A thousand tons goes pretty fast (metric or not).

[mtldealer]

I saw this posted on another website I'm on... It keeps me hunting...

4,233,725 40% silver Kennedy half dollars (1965 - 1969) would still be left in circulation if 99.5% of them have already been found and/or melted.

Four million, two hundred and thirty-three thousand, seven hundred and twenty five.

So when someone tells me "why are you searching for silver halves when 99.5% of them have been found/melted already," I'll say "great, then there are still 4.2 million left for me to find."

[Treetop]

I doubt anyone here will live to see silver "dry up"... although we might see dramatically higher prices that for all intents and purposes has it dry up for the average investor....

also in regards to...

And if investment grade silver truly is scarcer than gold (this is open to debate) than the day will come when silver hits one to one with gold... and then passes it.

This actually wouldnt surprise me, or some similar version. I wouldnt expect this to be maintained but I dont think this is out of the realm of possibility.

[johnbrickner]

Do you believe that 90% silver will be the first to dry up after the masses realize that the economy is collapsing? <snip>

I would love to think the "masses" were so sophisticated and that the level thought would be so geared towards hording silver. No, when the masses realized the economy is collapsing the level of thought will be at more of a "base" level. The first things that will dry up will be things like food, water, toilet paper, cigarettes, alcohol, ammo, prescription drugs and coffee.

[scyther]

I've always wondered if they really melt it. I've heard from many people, here and elsewhere, that they do. But why would they? You can easily get at least spot for it. That automatically means it's not profitable to melt. People respond "there's too much of it to sell as is, so they have to melt it". But is it really that much easier to sell .999 fine silver than 90%? At the right price, investors will buy it, whether .999 or 90%. And I think the right price is more than spot minus refining costs.

[neilgin1]

If your question is will 90% junk silver dry up before other forms... I can ABSOLUTELY guarantee you that it WILL. .999 silver in however many forms is being fabricated now and in the foreseeable future... whereas 90% is no longer produced, and the remaining pool shrinks each day.

The answer gets trickier as to when that happens. I'll leave that for brighter minds than mine... I'm just happy we have this buying opportunity for as long as it lasts.

ayup.....the tricky part is WHEN. there is still a LOT of 90's coming on market in market on rolls, 5 face, or 10 face....i'm talking Ebay, and the thing is guys are definitely willing to pay up....with the "board" right now at 14 times, its not unusual to see, even 63 or 64's, high mint numbers, trading at 21 times plus...with high numi rolls trading 25 to 35 times face.

I saw another thread where a bro was talking about the high number of pieces minted in 90%....he didn't place a value judgment on it...I believe its a GOOD thing, because it means there WILL BE the coins out there to trade, post dollar...or post "old" dollar....meaning if they pull a stroke like, in a dollar crisis, saying "all old dollars will be turned in at the rate of 100 "old" to one "new" ". Call me nuts, but I saw that theory bandied forth somewhere.

can you imagine that? that $100 paper benjy you got tucked away, suddenly by imperial edict, ordered turned in, and handed some new wacky multi colored piece of paper that says "One New Dollar"?.....what would a roll of pre-65 90% silver American coinage trade for then?

as if I would "trade" a roll of 64 BU Kennedy's for three "new" paper dollars? that's not happening.....if you got an Angus steer and five bales of silage...maybe.

I also been seeing this; heightened interest in the 65-69 40% Kennedy halves, AND I've noticed a pronounced premium on 1964 90% Kennedy Halves...even with this new interest in 40's , I can still slip in, and buy them for a titch above the board.....its a great coin, high mint numbers, and two of them just about equal a third of an ounce, while two 90% quarters equal a third an ounce, difference is, right now, you pay $27-30 the toz for the quarters, while if you lay in wait, you pay $22 the toz for 40% Kenn's.

one last thing, I can SAY $22' or '$27-30" a toz, BUT I don't valuate any silver I MIGHT have at that "price"...I think of it in terms of head of cattle, or round bales, or cords of firewood, which is $400-$1000 the toz...please call me "crazy"....don't agree with me, coz that makes me nervous...lol, be well, ya'll.

[neilgin1]

Gresham's Law will play out in the coming decade. I can't imagine there is a single one among us who doesn't divide their best stuff from their worst.

OB, I don't.......I keep everything tubed and inventoried, but there's no grand segregation. that said, you know I've gone for high numi's, BUT, I think of stacking like a four legged chair: said legs;
1. silver
2.nickel
3.copper
4."lead"

number 4 being the "hall monitor" to make sure any future trading is done in awell ordered environment.

There will come the day when there is a feeding frenzy to snatch up silver in ANY form, and those who wait too long might have money to convert... but they won't be able to outbid the fanatics on ebay with deeper pockets.

OB, i'm DEFINITELY seeing discernible signs of that NOW on Ebay....and not from "new guys"...I see guys with multiple thousand transactions with DEEP pockets, slashing and burning......they want that high qual, high numi stuff ....NOW!...I don't even get in the batters box with these guys. i'm good, I just thank God I had the presence of mind to "bid up" for stuff BEFORE, that is now.....totally ramped up......and I give YOU a lot of credit for encouraging me, just those few years ago....so thank you OB.