Russia Going into Ukraine

[Hawkeye]

Yet more interesting will be watching what sides the little guys pick as things get hotter.

I also think that's going to be interesting. My Russian teacher lives in Latvia and I was talking with her a little last Saturday about this. Interesting times.

Hawkeye I gotta ask, what did she say?

Basically that, even though Latvia is a member of the EU and NATO, and they are doing well with a growing economy, there are a lot of ethnic Russians there and a lot of "underground" pro-Russian sentiment and ethnic pride. If it ever came to war between the West and Russia, it would be a tricky situation.

I would maybe venture out on a limb and compare it to the US and Mexico. If those two ever went to war, who would the "New-American" Hispanics side with? They are technically Americans, and are doing well financially(comparatively speaking), but Spanish is their first language and they still have a lot of pride in the country of their birth and culture. I really don't know the answer to that question.

[capthowdymp]

I was wondering if any of this boils down to gold and oil somehow…. Are the oil producing countries now accepting gold in exchange for the oil. I hear China hear been hoarding a big portion of the worlds gold and they are socialist like Russia plus they are neighbors. I see the dollar being crushed and the countries holding all the gold will be on top. Is Russia hoarding gold or do they not report that like china? Sorry I know whenever I talk politics I always anger somebody I just think we are all being scammed by our Gov't.

[johnbrickner]

I always anger somebody I just think we are all being scammed by our Gov't.

No need to worry, you are correct on this one. Glad to see you are aware.

[theo]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/behind-kiev-snipers-it-was-somebody-new-coaltion-stunning-new-leak-reveals-truth?page=18

Well now that's interesting. I love the quote at the end by the Estonian foreign minister, who basically says, "yes, that's all true, but it's regrettable that it was leaked." It does suck when people know the truth. I've found this story on several news websites, but when you look at or listen to Fox, CNN, NY Times, etc, all you hear is crickets. According to RT (if you can believe them), "(American) State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said she had nothing to say on the issue, ITAR-TASS reported. However, she did accuse Russia of leaking the tape, stating that “this was another example of how the Russians work.” So, if that information is correct, we have an American state department spokeswoman accusing the Russians of playing dirty for... exposing a shred of truth about a murky situation. Nice. Truth is treason in the empire of lies.

I'm not exactly sure who or what to believe, but I do know that I believe virtually nothing the MSM says and I believe virtually nothing the government says (that would include foreign governments as well). Interesting times in which we live.

I don't have a lot trust for the MSM, but I trust the Russian, state-owned media even less. The first Amendment has taken a beating in the U.S., but there is still no comparison. I've heard a few accounts of Ukrainian TV stations being cut-off in the Crimea, leaving only the Russian stations.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainia ... mea-2014-3

So, if that information is correct, we have an American state department spokeswoman accusing the Russians of playing dirty for... exposing a shred of truth about a murky situation.

I think what we have is two diplomats having a private conversation theorizing who was behind those sniper attacks. In the U.S. we recognize the right of government officials to have private, frank conversations about current events without fear of having their raw thoughts become part of the public record. That is why taping and releasing these conversations is, at the very least, a breach of etiquette. Of course the people behind the sniper attacks need to face justice, but it is up the to Ukrainian people to demand that justice, not the Russian Army.

[Hawkeye]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/behind-kiev-snipers-it-was-somebody-new-coaltion-stunning-new-leak-reveals-truth?page=18

Well now that's interesting. I love the quote at the end by the Estonian foreign minister, who basically says, "yes, that's all true, but it's regrettable that it was leaked." It does suck when people know the truth. I've found this story on several news websites, but when you look at or listen to Fox, CNN, NY Times, etc, all you hear is crickets. According to RT (if you can believe them), "(American) State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said she had nothing to say on the issue, ITAR-TASS reported. However, she did accuse Russia of leaking the tape, stating that “this was another example of how the Russians work.” So, if that information is correct, we have an American state department spokeswoman accusing the Russians of playing dirty for... exposing a shred of truth about a murky situation. Nice. Truth is treason in the empire of lies.

I'm not exactly sure who or what to believe, but I do know that I believe virtually nothing the MSM says and I believe virtually nothing the government says (that would include foreign governments as well). Interesting times in which we live.

I don't have a lot trust for the MSM, but I trust the Russian, state-owned media even less. The first Amendment has taken a beating in the U.S., but there is still no comparison. I've heard a few accounts of Ukrainian TV stations being cut-off in the Crimea, leaving only the Russian stations.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainia ... mea-2014-3

So, if that information is correct, we have an American state department spokeswoman accusing the Russians of playing dirty for... exposing a shred of truth about a murky situation.

I think what we have is two diplomats having a private conversation theorizing who was behind those sniper attacks. In the U.S. we recognize the right of government officials to have private, frank conversations about current events without fear of having their raw thoughts become part of the public record. That is why taping and releasing these conversations is, at the very least, a breach of etiquette. Of course the people behind the sniper attacks need to face justice, but it is up the to Ukrainian people to demand that justice, not the Russian Army.

I agree that the Russian media is probably worse than the US. And I agree that taping and releasing diplomatic conversations is definitely a breach of etiquette. And, I agree that Ukrainian people need to demand that justice. But, if what these high level diplomats are saying is true, the Ukrainian people are currently being ruled by the people who were (or at least hired) the snipers. They're definitely not investigating it. And,as Paet said, it would "discredit this coalition." So, we just won't say anything about it or investigate it either - sweep it under the rug.

Just to make my position clear, I'm not supporting everything the Russians are doing. I just think the West (EU/US) is being hypocritical in the whole issue. From everything you see in the news, the new government is the result of a "process of democracy," and must be supported at all costs. I read a great article the other day, but I forgot where it was. But it was titled something like "there are no good guys in the Ukraine situation." And it was a great article. The old government, the new government, the Russian response and the Western response have all been filled with problems and contradictions. I say let the Ukrainians, the Russians and the EU figure it out. It concerns all of them. It doesn't concern us.

[blackrabbit]

I agree that the Russian media is probably worse than the US.

I agree that the Russian media is worse than the US if what you mean is they are less sophisticated in their manipulation of the world's population. The US media is much better at it.

[Treetop]

I agree that the Russian media is probably worse than the US.

I agree that the Russian media is worse than the US if what you mean is they are less sophisticated in their manipulation of the world's population. The US media is much better at it.

+1

[theo]

I agree that the Russian media is probably worse than the US.

I agree that the Russian media is worse than the US if what you mean is they are less sophisticated in their manipulation of the world's population. The US media is much better at it.

I can see how many would have that opinion, however look at the results. It is generally acknowledged that the U.S. MSM is pro-Obama and yet his approval rating is barely above 40%. Putin has invaded two countries in 5+ years and I hear his approval rationing is at an all-time high. Russia is in process of invading and annexing the Crimea (for now) in clear violation of the 1994 treaty (affirmed in 2009). Putin is pushing a narrative of hired snipers and neo-nazis mixed in with thinly veiled threats; and, aside from having to listen to John Kerry's speeches, he has suffered little if any damage so far.

I But, if what these high level diplomats are saying is true, the Ukrainian people are currently being ruled by the people who were (or at least hired) the snipers. They're definitely not investigating it. And,as Paet said, it would "discredit this coalition." So, we just won't say anything about it or investigate it either - sweep it under the rug. .

Its odd that we keeping hearing claims that they are not investigating, yet Paet cites evidence (bullets, handwriting) that sound like the results of at least a preliminary investigation.

[blackrabbit]

I am not sure how you invade a country that you already have troops and a giant military base in. That is like saying the US is invading Bahrain the next time they transport some more military personnel there. Also in this invasion no one has been killed by Russian forces nor has any infrastructure been destroyed.

Approval ratings are manipulated in Russia and the US.

The evidence of bullets being the same was supposedly from doctors who treated the wounded.

In my view power is power, it does not matter which mafia is wielding it.

[johnbrickner]

Crimean referendum now set for 3/16. Russia's state-owned energy company, Gazprom, has warned Ukraine that its gas supply might be cut off.

https://www.google.com/#q=crimea+referendum&tbm=nws

This so far has been an easy call. We'll see what transpires after the referendum and Rus welcomes the Crème back with open arms.

[theo]

I am not sure how you invade a country that you already have troops and a giant military base in. That is like saying the US is invading Bahrain the next time they transport some more military personnel there. Also in this invasion no one has been killed by Russian forces nor has any infrastructure been destroyed.
.

Very simple. You take your right to transit to and from your base and use it to exercise complete military control of the region. You use your soldiers to intimidate indigenous armed forces and local politicians. You shut down domestic T.V. and radio stations who might contradict your narrative. You make sure that foreign reporters and U.N. Envoys feel unsafe to the point where they either don't leave their hotels or flea the country altogether. And finally, you order your soldiers to remove their units patches so you can claim they are actually local, Russian-speaking Crimean soldiers. . . . who happen to be riding in the latest Russian tanks, APCs and helicopters. This allows you avoid accountability for any "unfortunate incidents" that are bound to happen. Finally after you've sown as much confusion as possible, you hold a quick "referendum" to formalize your annexation of the region.

[theo]

ARMED MEN ENTER UKRAINIAN MILITARY POST IN CRIMEA AND TAKE CONTROL, NO SHOTS FIRED - REUTERS REPORTER ON THE SCENE
UKRAINIANS AND FORCES THOUGHT TO BE RUSSIANS HOLD NEGOTIATIONS AFTER MILITARY POST TAKEN, NO ARMS SEIZED - REUTERS REPORTER

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-0 ... -crimea-tv

One point I will concede, is that this is more of an unopposed occupation than an invasion. The Ukrainians seem determined not to lift a finger in the defense of any point of the Crimea. I wonder if that will change if Putin makes a play for the Eastern Ukraine. I'm also starting to question how much (if any) control the new government has over the armed forces.

[blackrabbit]

Good explanation of the takeover in your response. Unopposed occupation is a term I can understand. Invasion seems like a propaganda term to make it seem more than it really is. When I hear invasion I think more of Iraq and Afghanistan with all kinds of stuff getting blown up and lots of people getting killed. I hope nothing like that happens in the Ukraine.

[Engineer]

This was posted over on BS.

Ukrainian national gold reserves transferred out from Kiev Airport to USA

i don't know this source but here's the link

http://translate.google.com/translate?s%20...%2003-07-9122


sorry for the long link i had to use Google translate to read it

[Engineer]

More breaking news:
Ukraine signs gas deal with Chevron
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-ukraine-chevron-idUSBRE9A40ML20131105

Putin's army got Crimea, and the west got their gas and gold. Nuthin to see here, folks...move along.

[theo]

Good explanation of the takeover in your response. Unopposed occupation is a term I can understand. Invasion seems like a propaganda term to make it seem more than it really is. When I hear invasion I think more of Iraq and Afghanistan with all kinds of stuff getting blown up and lots of people getting killed. I hope nothing like that happens in the Ukraine.

+1. . . something we can all agree on.

This was posted over on BS.

Ukrainian national gold reserves transferred out from Kiev Airport to USA

i don't know this source but here's the link

http://translate.google.com/translate?s%20...%2003-07-9122


sorry for the long link i had to use Google translate to read it

Wow. I suppose its for safe keeping? How do you say re-hypothicated in Ukrainian?

[68Camaro]

Apparently... перезаставляти

[theo]

Apparently... перезаставляти

Wow! two minutes. I thought it would take at least 1/2 hour for someone to respond with an answer.

More breaking news:
Ukraine signs gas deal with Chevron
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-ukraine-chevron-idUSBRE9A40ML20131105

Putin's army got Crimea, and the west got their gas and gold. Nuthin to see here, folks...move along.

Not surprised. Nearly every conflict boils down to control over resources.

[johnbrickner]

Putin is pushing a narrative of hired snipers and neo-nazis mixed in with thinly veiled threats; and, aside from having to listen to John Kerry's speeches, he has suffered little if any damage so far.

Well said theo!

The Ukrainians seem determined not to lift a finger in the defense of any point of the Crimea. I wonder if that will change if Putin makes a play for the Eastern Ukraine.

I see this playing out exactly the other way. Putin needs an excuse to go into the East of Ukraine. He could if the Ukraine military/"militia" (or other subversives) makes moves first to defend/"free it". Putin then has the excuse to send Rus troops to protect the Russian speaking population. An option similar to Hitler's Sudetenland move. The Eastern Ukraine has most of the natural resources (coal and iron,) includes industrial and mining-metallurgical complexes, is the real prize and already heavily Russified.

I don't see either side doing this but regardless of the damage Putin now has in international circles, his approval ratings at home are now top of the charts. What I do see is more time passing and if accompanied with continued disorder and Russian operatives/plants do their job, eastern parts of the country may hold referendums for succession. Repeat Crème.

[Hawkeye]

More breaking news:
Ukraine signs gas deal with Chevron
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-ukraine-chevron-idUSBRE9A40ML20131105

Putin's army got Crimea, and the west got their gas and gold. Nuthin to see here, folks...move along.

That probably hits the nail on the head.

[blackrabbit]

An interesting Bahrain/Ukraine comparison. Lots of info.

http://chycho.blogspot.ca/2014/03/whats-really-going-on-bahrain-vs.html

[johnbrickner]

More breaking news:
Ukraine signs gas deal with Chevron
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-ukraine-chevron-idUSBRE9A40ML20131105

Putin's army got Crimea, and the west got their gas and gold. Nuthin to see here, folks...move along.

That probably hits the nail on the head.

The problem here is that it will take several years to get fracked natural gas onto the market. This from the above article: "The agreements with Shell and Chevron ... will enable us to have full sufficiency in gas by 2020 and, under an optimistic scenario, even enable us to export energy," President Viktor Yanukovich told investors shortly before the signing. And frack wells tend to have a very short life span. This gives Putin 6 years to continue to turn the valve on the natural gas pipelines going to and thru the Ukraine to Europe. This will end up being a to little to late blip on the world energy map and the west's attempt to pull Ukraine that direction politically. The only winner I see here is Chevron.

And now we have this: "Russia is already sending tremors through the industrial east. In Donetsk, the Ukrainian and Russian flags have alternated atop the local administrative offices. The pro-Russian crowds are warmed up by agents provocateurs and supported by “volunteers” from across the Russian border. Russian social networks have been used to recruit volunteers to go to Kharkiv, Donetsk and Odessa for “moral support” and to participate in anti-Ukrainian rallies. “We need men aged 18-45 who are already in Ukraine, or are ready to go,” says a page called Civil Defence of Ukraine. “Don’t take anything…with you. Remember you are just a tourist”." The above from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... kraine-end

[no edit today]

[theo]

US Drone "Intercepted" Over Crimea By Russian 'Self-Defense' Forces

An American scout-attack drone, "almost invisible at a height of 4000 meters" has, according to AFP, been intercepted in the Crimean sky. Reports from the Russian state arms and technology group Rostec stated, judging by side-markings it was an MQ-5B drone - which is likely part of the 66th US Recon Brigade based in Bavaria. It was possible to break the drone’s link with its American operators with the help of the EW (electronic warfare) complex Avtobaza. As a result, the device made an emergency landing and passed into the possession of the self-defense forces almost unbroken."


http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-inter ... NlYwNzcg--

Zero Hedge ads this comment:

It is perhaps ironic that the US is complaining abouit Russia's military presence in Ukraine even as its own equipment is reportedly operating in the country.

Assuming it is us, I agree that flying a drone over there was not the best of ideas. But there is a small difference between the U.S. flying a drone over what is still the territory of a friendly country and Russia occupying it with thousands of troops. Also, is this the same type drone that we lost over Iran a while back? Perhaps it is the same drone. Whether or not its a Russian ruse, this incident will likely escalate tensions.

We also have this from ZH.

The Tanks Are Coming While Russia, US "Remain At Odds" Over Ukraine

With Interfax reporting that Belarus has begun full-scale military drills in a "readiness check", images from Russia and Ukraine suggest the worst-case scenario - that Russia is making preparations to invade Ukraine, not just Crimea but perhaps as far west as Kharkiv, or even beyond - is more possible. Talks have broken down:

*LAVROV SAYS RUSSIA, U.S. REMAIN AT ODDS ON UKRAINE: INTERFAX
*LAVROV SAYS RUSSIA TO RESPECT `WILL' OF CRIMEAN PEOPLE

Russia now has a massive force of tanks, troops, artillery, aircraft, and naval forces in position to potentially invade mainland Ukraine from Crimea in the south, but also from positions east and north of Ukraine.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-1 ... are-coming

I think Zero Hedge is overstating a little. According to ZH's own numbers yesterday the Russia has 80,000 troops well spread out on the Ukraine border. Although think Zero Hedge is overstating a little. 80,000 troops is a significant force to be sure, but its probably not big enough to actually invade. . . at least not yet. Of course I'm assuming that the Ukrainian army will fight, which is far from a given.

That being said I don't know that we have seen such tensions between the U.S. and Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis. This seems like a good weekend to stay close to home and monitor the news.

[bankmining]

Anyone else got the feeling that the Ukrainian gold is going to turn into German gold in the next 6 years?

[natsb88]

Somebody asked me to cross post this from the Russia/Ukraine/Crimea discussion over at BullionStacker:

I'm kinda surprised at how many people here seem to buy into the "the US looks weak because we aren't taking military action against Russia" mantra. That's typical neoconservative warmongering propaganda, except now some of the left has also jumped on the bandwagon because Russia is harboring an individual who embarrassed the president who promised "more transparency" and a few years ago stated that "mass surveillance doesn't work and should not be used" (paraphrasing).

In the last couple months the federal government and media have tried to convince the American people that Edward Snowden is a traitor selling secrets to Russia (there is zero evidence of such), that the Olympics were held in entirely "deplorable conditions" (some of those widely circulated photos have been proven fake), and have been sensationalizing Russia's anti-gay laws (which grassroots reporting suggests aren't all that new and aren't seen as a big deal inside the country). You don't need a tinfoil hat to detect a deliberate effort to sway Americans' current view of Russia.

Back to the Ukraine for a minute...

The US wants the Ukraine in one or more international organizations (NATO, the EU, the UN), both to protect American economic interests (like the gas contracts Chevron just got there, which are supposed to move the Ukraine toward energy independence, but also allow Chevron to export gas), and for strategic positioning (i.e. NATO bases right next to Russia). The existing Ukraine government had no interest in NATO, the UN, or the EU, or in being a puppet of the US government.

Somebody managed to record a phone call between Victoria Nuland (Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs) and the US ambassador in Keiv, in which they discussed who would be placed where in the new Ukrainian government they would be "gluing together." The violent, fascist regime that attacked the existing government seems poised to get several seats in the new "pro-US" government. Nuland previously admitted that the US has already spent $5 billion positioning leaders and building systems in the Ukraine to "promote democracy." (Remember how we "spread democracy" to Iraq?) It's not much of a stretch to think that perhaps the US government covertly poked and prodded in all the right spots to provoke an uprising and open up an opportunity to replace the existing government. They did exactly that with the CIA in Iran in the 1950s.

Now back to Russia's involvement...

Crimea is the autonomous republic on the southern peninsula of the Ukraine. It's population is ~60% ethnic Russian and it has long been home to a lot of pro-Russian sentiment. Sergei Aksyonov, leader of a pro-Russian political party in the Crimean government, ASKED Russia for help when the protesters in Kiev began to take over government buildings. Russia's entry into Crimea came after that request, and was largely non-violent. Aksyonov says Russia is protecting Crimean government buildings from the fascist regime that has displaced the Ukraine government (the same one the US is integrating into the new "pro-US" Ukraine government), and is thought to be planning secession (whether that means a new independent nation of Crimea, or joining Russia, is yet to be seen).

I'm not trying to argue that Crimea joining Russia would be good or bad, or that Putin's apparent support of Aksyonov is good or bad, but simply that the US seems to be greatly exaggerating Russia's physical presence in and plans for the Ukraine. This "Putin is taking over the Ukraine because Obama makes America look weak" stuff just strikes me as people vastly unaware of the complexities of the situation regurgitating Fox News soundbytes. Realistically the US is at least partially, if not completely, responsible for inciting the uprising in Kiev. It is not at all clear that the people doing the protesting and taking over the Ukrainian government are any better for the people of the Ukraine, but it is clear that the US believes they will be more receptive to US influence and are giving them a big voice in the new government the US is setting up. And a Russian move into Crimea was a completely predictable reaction to chaos in mainland Ukraine; treating it as an unexpected sign of aggression from Putin is silly.