Warmongering

[DoctorMetal]

Ambivalence; guess that's the word when you're on the fence and could go either way. That's how I feel about whether, as a stacker, I ought to be rooting for war, social conflict, economic meltdown, doomsday, Zombies, whatever. I like seeing spot prices go up, and I enjoy seeing more people attracted to this "barbaric" obsession when bad things are going on in the world. However, I also feel ashamed by it, and sincerely want to see world peace, happiness, and maybe, just maybe, the government works it all out. So, that's the topic I would love to discuss.

[theo]

I tend to think that preparing for an uncertain future can have a psychological impact on us. While nobody truly wishes for bad things to happen, we may want to feel justified in our efforts. The idea that all of our preps and investments went for nothing might be a let down; not to mention an indictment on our judgement. A few of us might even look forward to a Schadenfreude ("I told you so!") moment when all of the "sheeple" get their just desserts. However, I suspect that watching others suffer (even those who were truly irresponsible) will be much worse than we ever imagined. Furthermore, the black swan (be it war or economic collapse) can quickly get out of control and easily overwhelm even the most ardent efforts to prepare.

[beauanderos]

I would rejoice if silver and gold resumed their ascendance free from manipulation... based upon resource scarcity and not hyperinflationary scenarios or dollar depreciation milieus.
I'm not willing to invite a Mad Max world just so I could feel smug and smirk at all "the unprepared." Who could you tell anyway? Unless you enjoy home invasions?

In all likelihood, however, it appears that one or more black swans will be necessary to dislodge the ensconced proprietary metals traders who benefit from the ongoing suppression.

[DoctorMetal]

Good insight. I happen to believe also that prepping and stacking has a psychological effect. I dunno how to describe it; kinda a gloomy, doomsday-is-coming outlook. It's not a persistent mood, but on some days, it's the predominant mood, and I'm a bleeding optimist. I would far rather want to believe that everything is going to turn out alright and all our "investments" will only be seen as maybe slightly eccentric or the behavior of a determined hobbyist.

[Hawkeye]

It is a strange psychological phenomenon. I found myself almost subconsciously "rooting for" some form of collapse a year or two ago. When I stopped to think about my attitude, I really had to adjust my thinking. I decided that what I ideally wanted was to be able to live a long, healthy life in a peaceful and prosperous country. And if living a quiet, enjoyable and productive life in a stable country means precious metals are worthless and my grandkids throw away all of my "preps," that's fine with me. I guess I now look at it as a "hope for the best; prepare for the worst" situation.

[68Camaro]

I've had to fight the effects noted. I've adjusted my focus to basic long term healthy disaster self insurance, in a form that I encourage everyone to do, moderated or accelerated as a function of current events.

Stay informed.
Manage your debt properly.
Proportion your wealth safely between hard or soft assests as a function of events.
Store long term supplies of the appropriate type.
Network with friends and neighbors.

These are timeless behaviors which our pioneer ancestors knew instinctively.

[DoctorMetal]

For me, I think it all started with the Mayan Long Calendar count. I bought one of those Aztec coins (of course, but flipped an extra) - maybe it's cursed, I wonder about that with some purchases (said tongue-in-cheek) around late 2011, and then when the Apocalypse didn't come, instead of doing the smart thing by cutting back on PM acquisition, it seems the habit picked up steam all throughout 2012 and 2013 (I remember reading something once about UFO cults who pick up steam after a disappointment in their predictions). After all, there were LOTS of black swan events and endogenious/exogenous market conditions those years, the manipulation factor being a big one. I dunno what truly to believe about manipulation conspiracy theory. I'm in no position to have firsthand knowledge. My government job allows me access to information about currency markets, bank regulations, terrorism-related lists (PLEASE don't ask me to look anybody up), and other socio-economic things, but like the rest of you, we only have mass market books, booklets, so-called "gurus," blogs, and websites to get information. Frankly, I distrust a lot of it, but I have developed some respect for a couple books and a couple websites. My job also has a military/DOD connection as well as a HLS one. I could write a book on what I know about things like martial law planning, oathkeeping, and such. I do believe that the so-called "algos" which permeate the speculators and banksters' computer systems are deliberately rigging the precious metals markets (among other rigs like the London daily Gold fix) and that automated systems as well as unsound economic policies might be the ruination of our nation. I'm not much of one, but I'm also supposed to be some kind of expert in white-collar crime. It's actually a broad field, and most people only specialize in a part of it, my part being the side they often regard as organized crime within white collar crime. Feel free to ask me anything about that, but I wouldn't put too much hope in any crackdowns just yet (even with Obama's war on wealth inequality). "War" should not just mean the foreign ones. Some of the worst warmongering is about civil war. I have to admit to a bit of paranoia here and don't take me as any authoritative source on the subject, but one of the things that will very quickly get "monitored" by government infiltrators is talk about violent insurrection. It's just one of those legal predicate things that doesn't have First Amendment protection (actually, there are a lot of things that don't have Constitutional protection). I lament some and have despite for others. Appreciate the postings so far in this thread. Thanks.

[Morsecode]

In the hours running up to the Gulf War (Aug.'90), I was certain pm's would rise in response, and called Gaithersburg Coin in Maryland and purchased a Credit Suisse kilo bar of the shiny yellow. Damn thing was beautiful.

And I was correct...metals blipped up marginally. Then came the CNN ground war, and I literally settled in to cheer it on from my sofa. How did I feel? This was exactly like betting on a football game, something I did quite a lot back then. Aside from a morbid curiosity in watching stuff get blown to bits via bomb-cams, my sole concern was how long would it take to double my investment. Greed is Good.

I woke up each day expecting to see a $100/$200 spike in spot (pre-kitco online quotes...hell, it was pre-online), but that glorious hour never came.

Then came the Iraqis' retreat, and I saw the world on fire in the Kuwait oil fields. Suddenly, I didn't feel much like cheerleading. I ended up dumping the bar at breakeven and moved on to whatever came next. The morality of it all didn't stick with me for long, if I'm going to be honest. Though I remember the episode more for that lesson than anything else.

[beauanderos]

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/e/e/0/ee0dcdcb2482f64a/cswdcc70.mp3?c_id=6882526&expiration=1394395224&hwt=fdb1b43036c216d05c79e0b6eab4cb99

[DoctorMetal]

A lot of talk exists on the interwebs about the possibility of thermonuclear WWIII coming out of the situation in Ukraine. Such warmongering IMO represents the height of speculation. Everyone knows Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, but it takes some mighty big balls to cross that line. It's likely the US government will screw things up, but not that bad. Heck, I'm looking forward to buying up some of those Kiwis and Krugs they seize from the Russian oligarchs (expect to see Treasury auction sales at the VSE warehouses before the year is out) to put pressure on Putin, but again, asset confiscation probably won't lead to war. There are rumors that we are supporting snipers to shoot at all the Russian troop carriers driving around Ukraine, and the locals are arming up. One of the things that has always troubled me (even as a free market capitalist) is that America is the world's largest arms dealer, the world's supplier of killing instruments for practically every conflicted region. My take on the international law with this crisis is that neither the USA nor NATO has any legal ground to stand on in terms of intervention. Russia will claim it has annexed Crimea (thru rigged vote results), and the UN will call it a protectorate (like Kosovo), which may perhaps be the fate of all Ukraine once the locals and proxies fight it out. Certainly, PM spot prices will go up as the dollar falls the more Russia appears to be winning. Kinda odd, rooting for Russia to make PM prices go up, isn't it?

[Engineer]

Most of the international headlines these days read like the script of WWF. The gullible public pays for the entertainment, the wrestlers (Putin and Obama) collect fame and fortune, and the producers (bankers) get rich in the background.

[blackrabbit]

Most of the international headlines these days read like the script of WWF. The gullible public pays for the entertainment, the wrestlers (Putin and Obama) collect fame and fortune, and the producers (bankers) get rich in the background.

Great analogy.

Good audi clip beauanderos. I like people who don't just pick a side and lose their independent judgement.

[theo]

My take on the international law with this crisis is that neither the USA nor NATO has any legal ground to stand on in terms of intervention. Russia will claim it has annexed Crimea (thru rigged vote results), and the UN will call it a protectorate (like Kosovo), which may perhaps be the fate of all Ukraine once the locals and proxies fight it out.

What is your take on this agreement? It seems vague enough not to obligate us a specific action (like military support) , but on the other hand doesn't the Ukraine have a right to expect the U.S. and the U.K. to take all reasonable efforts to help the Ukraine maintain the integrity of its boarders?

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-territor ... ZJUDM2MV8x

. . . . on December 5, 1994, Ukraine, Russia along with Britain and the United States signed an agreement in which the three powers guaranteed the territorial integrity of the former Soviet republic in exchange for Kiev giving up nuclear weapons.

The Black Sea peninsula is currently under de-facto occupation by pro-Kremlin troops, a situation which has been embraced by the local Russian speaking population fearing Kiev's new authorities.

However, under the terms of the 1994 so-called Budapest memorandum the three major powers affirmed their commitment to respect the independence, sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine. It was signed three years after Ukraine became an independent state."

A lot of talk exists on the interwebs about the possibility of thermonuclear WWIII coming out of the situation in Ukraine. Such warmongering IMO represents the height of speculation. Everyone knows Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, but it takes some mighty big balls to cross that line. It's likely the US government will screw things up, but not that bad. Heck, I'm looking forward to buying up some of those Kiwis and Krugs they seize from the Russian oligarchs (expect to see Treasury auction sales at the VSE warehouses before the year is out) to put pressure on Putin, but again, asset confiscation probably won't lead to war.

I generally agree with you here. Certain websites and blogs focus on the worst case scenarios with the probable goal of shocking and scaring readers enough to buy a subscription or at least spend more time on their site. I get the strong impression that the phrase, "Death of the Dollar" as been one of web's stronger marketing tools over the last few years. Having said that, I tend to think that the next major conflict will start over a comparatively small event.

[DoctorMetal]

My take on the legal is that only a Memorandum of Understanding (the Budapest Memorandum) exists between the US/UK and Russia that Ukrainian sovereignty will be honored. It was all the Russia agreed to in return for removing all those nuclear weapons from the region. Sure, there are some other international treaties, but like most treaties they are regularly violated and the worst that can happen is a harsh UN security council statement. The MOA does not provide any basis for military intervention. A crime against humanity would, but since Ukraine has experienced mass genocides twice (once under Stalin and again under Hitler), the bar is high. The EU will stay out of it because it needs Russian oil, and the UK will stay out of it because London is where all the Oligarch's wealth is stored (Londongrad). There's nobody to stand up to the Russians (or the Chinese for that matter). These two nations could destroy the USA in minutes with their nuclear arsenals, but they don't have to. We are imploding from within by foolish politics and unsound economics. Ukraine is also heavily indebted to the IMF and interbank funding (especially to Russian state-controlled banks). All it represents is a seething cauldron of hateful nationalism. They have fairly large military and police forces, but their loyalties are questionable (like Iraq and Afghanistan). Maybe because I think a society is toast when it sells its women, Ukrainian mail order brides are high maintenance, and I know this only because I have a socially inept (like me) coworker who has one. Gone are the neocon days when flare-ups like this prompted American intervention, but that's not saying a small black swan event couldn't trigger something that escalates into global war. America has retreated (moved forward by leading from behind) from territorial aspirations by its adversaries. These land grabs won't mean much of anything soon, and as our adversaries accumulate more real estate, wealth, productivity, and PMs, America becomes weaker and weaker, slowly and steadily, as the high frequency trading churns.

[Hawkeye]

Stay informed.
Manage your debt properly.
Proportion your wealth safely between hard or soft assests as a function of events.
Store long term supplies of the appropriate type.
Network with friends and neighbors.

These are timeless behaviors which our pioneer ancestors knew instinctively.

There is a lot of wisdom and common sense in that list - two things I think most people are desperately lacking today.

[DoctorMetal]

This guy may have it nailed.
"There isn't going to be a war over Ukraine. There isn't even going to be a crisis over Ukraine. We will perform our ritual war-dance...and the result will be a clown show.... Ukraine isn't a country: it's a Frankenstein monster composed of pieces of dead empires.... It's one of the most corrupt economies on earth.... It's a basket case that needs $35 billion to survive the next two years.... Secretary of State Kerry is talking about $1 billion in loan guarantees, and the Europeans are talking a similar amount."
http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2014/03/01/ukraine-is-hopeless-but-not-serious/

[68Camaro]

Haven't read the link yet but I could believe your summary quote. I suspect that even the Eastern provinces of Ukraine would be on the table without a fight if Europe/US thought that would appease Putin for a time. "Peace in our time." I'm not sure that Putin has Hitlerian aspirations of taking over Europe, but I do believe he will go pretty far to regain large portions of the former Soviet Union that he believes are critical to regaining superpower status. So no idea of his timeline, but I'd bet money he's not stopping at Ukraine. He'll be after other pieces eventually - maybe Moldavia, maybe the small NW states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. And he might not stop there.

Putin is why Poland has been rearming with the latest technology for the past couple of years and allegedly has that on a fast-track with priority spending despite their modest economy.

[johnbrickner]

Well said and thought out, everyone. I stayed away from this one as I am still not sure what direction to take on a reply. But, here goes.

I have no shame from stacking/preparing/hording. I do it because it's the right thing to do. The only time I have misgivings is when something comes up regarding a decrease of job security for either my wife (changes job) or I (school district lays off 30 people) that I do not have even more food/house supplies/cash accumulated. We had a period of time where we had to watch every penny and knowing the staples of our food and household bill would be very small for the period of time needed assisted greatly. My stacks are all insurance to an Empire in decline. Will we have a collapse? Maybe. Best to be prepared for that scenario also. But, that the Empire is in decline is not debatable in my eyes. Things got significantly shatty in the mid 70's and though we've had some . . . uhhh, positive cycles since, we have not been on a sustained increase in our standard of living since. Not difficult to argue It's been in a decline (standard of living) since. This is now the norm. They aren't going to teach us this in public school nor hear it in our conventional media. Personally, I've unplugged myself from mass media and only very selectively choose my information to review.

[2nd Edit to forward a better thought and sight reference]
We get entertainment, data, information, motivations, truths and falsehood from our media which is geared more toward global than local, negative more than positive, run by extremely large companies and controlled by very wealthy individuals. This mass media constantly brainwashes and deceives us to buy their products (remember, this is the Free Market we all love so much). [I won't touch on the deceptions it gives us towards our military in order to avoid Forum conflict] In this milieu, we are considered target markets and consumers not human beings and the primary deception is consumption and greed are good and provide happiness. Some people feel inadequate when they don't know the latest scoop. We think it provides us with a core of information that is vital to our daily functioning. It isn't. In my opinion it's almost all distraction, smoke and mirrors and keeps us from thinking out what is really going on. Same thing for sports but I won't go there either.

The alternative and answer is to unplug our selves from it (literally unplug the TV, pull the bud from your ear) and engage in more community conversation. Take the knowledge, insight, and inspiration you gain from your community (such as Real Cent) and replace corporate media brain washing propaganda with it. Also, Books serve for effective communication mostly unaffected by corporate manipulation. Books are dense in information, have good quality control and a long information value shelf life. The visual graphics of books can't compare to the fancy images of video but are spot on to the subject. It's the personal human to human communication that works and meets our needs best in a way mass media purports to but cannot. Be aware globally (as globalization is/will be a source of problems) but think, act, and buy local.

[Edit 3 typo]
I guess when I bottom line it I've got to say, if you don't want to deal with the war mongering, and how the media affects you in a psychological and behavioral way, you should dump it. But it starts with being aware of how it makes you feel when you are absorbing it. We regain control of our lives when we separate ourselves from the control and domination of mass media, and vital to OUR deciding how WE want to change our world by finding and developing other sources of information and entertainment. Murphy, P. (2008). Plan C: Gabriola Islands, BC: New Society Publishers.

[Edit to add] Oops, I forgot to add this. Sometimes I really do feel I sincerely wish the collapse would come and we eliminate most of the bone heads, vile, and zombified people from the planet. Usually it's after interaction with the severely dysfunctional people in and running my community (is this a mixed message?). But, I consider it a reflection of both a sign of the times and my work place. [see my post here: viewtopic.php?f=23&t=28653#p254246 and follow the link contained]. Sometimes humanity (in general) just pisses me off.

[Treetop]

This mass media constantly brainwashes and deceives us to buy their products (remember, this is the Free Market we all love so much). [I won't touch on the deceptions it gives us towards our military in order to avoid Forum conflict]

good post, but Im going to pick nits on this little point, LOL.

Perhaps in a free market the same would be true, but this is NOT a free market. You could call it "crony capitalism" or some variation of that, but certainly not "free market capitalism". We have industry in bed with government and there is a whole range of ways this is used to block competition. Heck even our currency is essentially a corporate product of a private bank atm.

[johnbrickner]

Treetop, you are an aware fellow and caught my sarcasm. People can call it what they want but, I'll take it back to it's roots and dare call it what it is: "Fascism . . . a merger of state and corporate power” ― Benito Mussolini But I won't detail here.

[DoctorMetal]

I'm trying hard to find something to nitpick. I won't go the economic collapse route since it seems that's not debatable. What I find most interesting is a previous post's mention of "the new norm." I wish I knew what that term means.??? Is it referring to the fact that about a decade and a half ago, we passed the point when our children's generation is going to be worse off than ours? Is it referring to getting used to a new, lower standard of living? Is it getting used to a perpetual war on terror? Is it referring to a sheeple-like acceptance of crookedness and cronyism?
My most suffering comes from the perpetual war footing. That's probably because I work on an Army base and am constantly amongst the preparations for war. It wears on you, but hey, I can get the good surplus prepping stuff free or cheap. I wish I had kids, but only have a stepdaughter and stepson (from previous marriage), and neither of them are interested in my PM "hobby/obsession." And sucking up a lot of sheeple-like acceptance just comes with the job. The psychological condition I'm calling my "suffering" is a kind of depression, maybe. I'm still trying to enjoy life, but ever since I started stacking, prepping, whatever, I've forced myself to live within my means -- the new normal -- and no matter how hard I try to break out of it, I just can't seem to get back to that old, extravagant lifestyle. I think it's gone forever. Stacking changes you.

[68Camaro]

People don't become happier with life by having more stuff. The suicides and addiction amongst the rich and famous testify to that. We all need to find something bigger than ourselves to live for. Not sure what you enjoy doing but maybe you could do some mentoring, coaching, teaching, volunteering to get beyond the prepping depression .

[johnbrickner]

The new normal or the slow motion train wreck, also called the long slow decline. All you list above and more are the symptoms. Many events are coming together to cause mankind's current situation. From the effects of the Tyrannosaurus Debt (thank you School House Rock: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0efqnvYz4YI) to peak oil (long explanation thank you post carbon institute): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsV_3yBDXXI short explanation (thank you silver shield group): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKlVs4Phjt8 , to climate change (TY CO2 or mini-iceage,) etc. comes our current condition. To most of us it manifests itself as a slow, continued decline in our standard of living or loss of J.O.B. (just over broke).

The fact is our current way of life and economy based on cheap oil, debt, and a skewed belief in exponential growth with unlimited resources is not sustainable now nor into the future. This is causing the things that make up our world to change. The symptoms you mention above are the manifestations of that change. Our prepping, stacking, and living within our means are how we react and cope to the change. How hardy, adaptive and resilient each of us are will determine our personal outcome. What we can do about it to make it better or facilitate our adaptive process is the subject of many books. A recent favorite is Plan C, I reference above. I also like Plan B version 4.0 by Brown. There are many others.

The key right now is to find meaningful purpose in our lives, as this is what will keep us going.

[neilgin1]

I tend to think that preparing for an uncertain future can have a psychological impact on us. While nobody truly wishes for bad things to happen, we may want to feel justified in our efforts. The idea that all of our preps and investments went for nothing might be a let down; not to mention an indictment on our judgement. A few of us might even look forward to a Schadenfreude ("I told you so!") moment when all of the "sheeple" get their just desserts. However, I suspect that watching others suffer (even those who were truly irresponsible) will be much worse than we ever imagined. Furthermore, the black swan (be it war or economic collapse) can quickly get out of control and easily overwhelm even the most ardent efforts to prepare.

brother Theo, I been thinking a lot what you said.....about "crisis fatigue", which I concur with, in regards to zerohedge. (a site I do have respect for)...I cant do the "told you so", because many people I love with all my soul will die.

so then I put the train "on a different track"....I think about the 5 cords of wood I have to buy, so I can give my woods a rest, (and me), I think about the nice 3 hour conversation I had at the Laundromat with a just darn cute (and smart, yet married...!!!!) hippie chick....She's 32, lives in a yurt, tough lil lass....the way she drank up our conversation had me thinking hubby better start paying more mind to his hyper smart wife..or maybe i'm a pretty interesting dude...who knows, but I don't mess with married gals, hard and fast rule.....so then I get back here to Bag End, and I flick this Ma-cheene on and what do I read?

here, I gotta show it to you, I would be remiss if I didn't.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-2 ... led-nuclea

after you read it...just let it sink in....the madness, and darkness of some souls. I don't know where you stand faithwise, but after I watch "For Love of the Game".....one of my favorite candy feel good movies....i'm getting on my knees to talk to my Heavenly Father....having a nice stack of Ag, lead, calories on a deep buried rural ranch is swell, But He, the Lord is OUR only real relief, and power....the power of prayer, salted with love, neil

[theo]

brother Theo, I been thinking a lot what you said.....about "crisis fatigue", which I concur with, in regards to zerohedge. (a site I do have respect for)...I cant do the "told you so", because many people I love with all my soul will die.

so then I put the train "on a different track"....I think about the 5 cords of wood I have to buy, so I can give my woods a rest, (and me), I think about the nice 3 hour conversation I had at the Laundromat with a just darn cute (and smart, yet married...!!!!) hippie chick....She's 32, lives in a yurt, tough lil lass....the way she drank up our conversation had me thinking hubby better start paying more mind to his hyper smart wife..or maybe i'm a pretty interesting dude...who knows, but I don't mess with married gals, hard and fast rule.....so then I get back here to Bag End, and I flick this Ma-cheene on and what do I read?

here, I gotta show it to you, I would be remiss if I didn't.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-2 ... led-nuclea

after you read it...just let it sink in....the madness, and darkness of some souls. I don't know where you stand faithwise, but after I watch "For Love of the Game".....one of my favorite candy feel good movies....i'm getting on my knees to talk to my Heavenly Father....having a nice stack of Ag, lead, calories on a deep buried rural ranch is swell, But He, the Lord is OUR only real relief, and power....the power of prayer, salted with love, neil

But the smoking gun, and where Putin once again shows just how masterful of a chess player he is, is the following statement by Tymoshenko, after asked, rhetorically, by her counterparty, "what should we do now with the 8 million Russians that stayed in Ukraine. They are outcasts"... to which she replies: "They must be killed with nuclear weapons."

Although that last quote sounds pretty damning, it doesn't make a lot of sense. How do you kill 8 million Russians, inter-mixed with your own people, with nuclear weapons? What makes the quote even more curious is that the Ukrainians don't possess any known nuclear weapons; they don't even have a credible air defense network. The only source for this so far is RT, who at best severely biased and at worst Pravda online.

. . . (later edit) To finish my thought, RT is an interesting study. It has been a haven for many hard money advocates; allowing them to get their message out. For a time I had the impression that RT was on the verge of being a credible news source (at least in hard money circles). But since the Ukrainian overthrow and the subsequent Russian incursion we are reminded that RT is controlled by the Russian government (in other words Putin) as they (almost desparately) push the Russian agenda. Airing private conversations, which can be subject to manipulation and distortion is closer to propaganda than serious journalism.

Regarding the most recent tape the lady (Tymoshenko) is clearly irate at what she percieves as a Russian invasion. She hates Russians (especially Putin) and colorfully explains what she wants to do with Russia in what is clearly a rant sprinkled with a few F-bombs. Having said that, the part where she says "They must be killed with nuclear weapons." sounds spliced to me as it doesn't seem to flow with the rest of the conversation. IMO the "they" she is referring too is likely Putin and/or the Russian Army. Her hatred for the Russians is certainly provocative, but not surprising considering the history between these peoples.