These are *still* the "good old days" - for PMs

[68Camaro]

Those prices back then seem crazy now, but remember $35-42 gold, and $1 silver? Those were the good ole days, right? (for those of us old enough to remember then) Well, it wasn't that long ago that gold was $100 and I thought in passing (for I didn't think about gold all that much) that that was crazy high at the time. Even more recently - within the last decade - It went from $300 to $1000 in nothing flat.

It's all relative, but if we can live that long we'll see $50,000 gold and $5,000 silver. So think of those future days... and reminisce about today, back in the "good ole days" of 2015, when gold was barely over $1100, and silver was less that $15! What say you? You say, "Man, I would have loaded up the truck if I could have bought at that price."

Sure you would have. Well, why didn't you?

Waiting for $9 silver, $700 gold, or less? That's just stupid... There won't be any real physical metal available at those futures market prices.

Buy it now. Or miss out.

[beauanderos]

I've been stacking since 2003, a lot of it from ebay back then. Silver (and the little bit of gold I initially bought) always seemed high,
regardless of where it was priced. Meaning... I always had to stretch my budget at the seams to outbid others, but knew (and was
quickly confirmed) that if I wanted it.. I had to pay up. Watching the run-up into 2011, I had seen my initial purchases at $4.50 an
ounce and $322 an ounce do quite well.

We all know what happened after that, but precious metals have still way outpaced inflation in the interim. Go to westegg.com and
plug in the numbers. I think it was something like an item that cost $100 in 2003 would cost $147 in today's dollars. While silver is up
far more than that, as is gold.

Moral of the story. "if you don't hold it, you don't own it," even if, at times, it seems you have to pay dearly for that privilege. Some day
wealth will be measured in ounces... and worthless fiat paper will be just that. Trade it while you can.

[Country]

Question is if you can live that long you'll much higher prices. This works for all you youngsters out there, but when you are approaching 70 or so time is not on your side. I'd like to think I'm going to see a stomping good time again, but sometimes I wonder. I've been around to enjoy two nice bubble-ups in PMs - 1980 and 2011. But, 2030 ? I'm not so sure I'll be here for that one. More power to those who do! Am I still buyin' ? You bet - buy low - buy now. Here's a data fact - the longest bear market in PMs was 7 years. Will this one be longer? Who knows. But as the equity market looks sick after a nice 7 year BULL, it may just be time for PMs to get their turn...

[68Camaro]

Maybe we'll all make it to the other side of that 7 years (only 3 years from now if that past behavior was to hold true) in time to at least cash out in part for any that need a refill of frns at a profit. Hopefully we will see a few legs up, even if the next big bull delays.

[silverstacker]

Those prices back then seem crazy now, but remember $35-42 gold, and $1 silver? Those were the good ole days, right? (for those of us old enough to remember then) Well, it wasn't that long ago that gold was $100 and I thought in passing (for I didn't think about gold all that much) that that was crazy high at the time. Even more recently - within the last decade - It went from $300 to $1000 in nothing flat.

It's all relative, but if we can live that long we'll see $50,000 gold and $5,000 silver. So think of those future days... and reminisce about today, back in the "good ole days" of 2015, when gold was barely over $1100, and silver was less that $15! What say you? You say, "Man, I would have loaded up the truck if I could have bought at that price."

Sure you would have. Well, why didn't you?

Waiting for $9 silver, $700 gold, or less? That's just stupid... There won't be any real physical metal available at those futures market prices.

Buy it now. Or miss out.

+1 these are good prices and anyone who thinks it can go lower might be true in a minimal sense. This is low people and soon we will look back on this and kick ourselves for trying to buy at the lowest price (which 99.9% never happens) happy stacking!

[Recyclersteve]

Here's a data fact - the longest bear market in PMs was 7 years. Will this one be longer? Who knows.

After the all-time high in January, 1980 we were down pretty steadily (with some bounces along the way) until 2001. If someone could have bought right when the terrorists attacked on 9/11/01, that was a FANTASTIC time to buy, even though the official bottom didn't occur til a couple of months later. But that looks like a 21 year downtrend to me. I don't see how you could figure the longest downtrend was just 7 years.

Here is the way I see it after looking at a 100-year chart at macrotrends.net. Note that charts are inflation adjusted.

1971-1980: 9-year uptrend
1980-2001: 21-year downtrend
2001-2011: 10 year uptrend

The shortest trend we've had since the early 1970's (up or down) was 9 years. We've only been in a downtrend this time less than 4 1/2 years. So it wouldn't surprise me if things stayed low for a while. I look at it this way- if silver started roaring tomorrow, that would be fine. If it started roaring 5-10 years from now, that would be fine too.

I will admit that trend analysis is a bit subjective. Someone else's downtrend may be what I'd consider to be a pullback within a longer term uptrend.

One other thing. People talk about buying low and selling high, but the bottom line is that many don't have the stones to do it. Instead they often say they'll wait til things get better. When things get better the price will be much higher. I understand someone not wanting to buy a stock because they are concerned the company can go bankrupt. But how does that logic apply to precious metals? The only two ways I know for metals to go to zero is if you buy counterfeits without realizing it or have your stack stolen. Ok, some might argue that confiscation might do the same thing. I'll leave that for others to debate.

[neilgin1]

Great thread 68, and great responses ya'll. May I chime in?

Please don't be cross with me, brothers, I KNOW I might seem like a depressant, but what it really is, is THIS:

I've thrown "NORMALCY BIAS" .......in my burn can!....or out the window!...or whatever metaphor one can choose, because things are NOT "normal" these days, and when that's the case, its time to think out of the box.

68, you wrote: It's all relative, but if we can live that long we'll see $50,000 gold and $5,000 silver. So think of those future days

my dear buddy, what i'm about to question is not written in contention, or disagreement just to be contrary, I know you know that, but what MEDIUM will this $50,000/$5,000 BE?....will it be paper fiat? Lord have mercy! the whole world wants to see the dollar GONE, as global reserve currency, because its backed with a PROMISE, and a threat....and the "world" competing powers are making moves to do just that. So, when this day comes, what will $50,000/$5,000 BUY?....IF it's even allowed in "cash paper form".

which is my next thought...I been hearing from reading, right out the horses mouth, these accursed "pharaohs" want to do away with "cash paper", all sorts of IMF, BIS types, want everything digital, on "cards", electronic, because cash paper is anonymous, and anonymous to them means: No CONTROL.

CONTROL is their whole aim, just look at what they've done to cars and trucks for example, by gummit MANDATE, every 2015 and beyond vehicle sold HAS to have gear onboard, chips, that can accessed to pinpoint where the vehicle is, and as far as that onboard GPS mapping thingy, tells you, "go here" "go there", God knows how much one pays for that unholy feature, that's another downlink, that can be utilized for CONTROL. and besides, what happened to paper maps? Have Americans become so damn lazy and incompetent, we cant read a paper map anymore....and plot where to go here and there?....we need that silly old foolish computer voice TELLING us "where to turn"?....makes me physically ill. (none of this is geared toward ANYBODY here, but when I finally found the truck I been waiting 4 years for which is a 2011 Toyota Tacoma, 57k miles on it, a 4by4, 4 banger, standard transmission, starts like it was 2011, and I had that bad boy off that car lot in less than an hour and a half, got an access cab on it too, and given the right care, that engine could go 400,000 miles, and I kept my 2006 4 banger Mazda Tribute, that was "bought" new for me,75,000 miles on that, and she starts like it was 2006,,,and my navigation "system" are paper maps, and a knowledge of every back road in a three county area....the only two other vehicles i'm looking for, are a Willys Jeep, covered, and the tow cart, when I need it...when I can find a good Army deuce and a half, covered, i'll get that too, and pray she's diesel...two points here, as much as I can, and the Lord allows, i'm not ceding CONTROL to some pin-striped suit vampire, who is deluded enough to think we are all SERFS, only existing to be cows they can milk, and second to maintain as much FREEDOM, over MY life, and MY family as can be had, and the Lord allows...I didn't mean to go "off topic", but maybe I still might be ON topic)

68, my brother, one more point, or should I say question...do you really think, that say when Au/Ag naturally trade to their true valuation, say even at $4,000/$400 (and that's just the start) do you think canapé eating swells, want US to be enriched, by our foresight? I said it before, and i'll say it again, these money grubbing soft sissy nancy boys, sons of satan they are, will tack on a 50% "windfall tax" to all private PM sales...which as I see it, is just THEFT, plain and simple.

68, you also wrote: "Waiting for $9 silver, $700 gold, or less? That's just stupid."

sure nuff it is, because of the widely accepted pricing mechanism, which is a paper based, ALL cyber, that goes by the name "Comex"....it isn't the price of real world silver, MY real world price, was paying in a free voluntary trade, $20.43 per 2015 Maple for 20 of them, when the phony market was at 15.12.....tell what else I couldn't help myself from buying from a TRUSTED long time seller, a $20 FV roll of 1971-S Deep Cameo Ikes, glassed them all, and i'll be a monkeys uncle if any of them are grade below MS-67, with the majority, up around MS-69, and even some MS-70's as per PCGS, I been developing my graders "eye", meaning i'm ruthless in looking for ANY flaw. Now what did I pay, i'll be happy to tell you, 239.99, which comes out to about $40 the toz, which is $25 over this phony Comex paper price of Ag....you think that bothers me?....absolutely not, because I know a day is coming when these 40% Silver Ikes turn into a white hot niche market....you should see Ike on these coins, he's just GLOWING against those prefect mirror surfaces.

which leads me to chat with (King) Country...(cant thank you enough for being one of the men who constructed this most valuable website, ya'll are visionaries imo) Country you wrote:
"Question is if you can live that long you'll much higher prices. This works for all you youngsters out there, but when you are approaching 70 or so time is not on your side. I'd like to think I'm going to see a stomping good time again, but sometimes I wonder."

I understand that, and may you live long. I stack not so much for myself, but for my boy, my recently turned 20 year old, who has been schooled by me, about this whole darn set up they got going, which what is "currency" and what is REAL "money"...he knows, he's been "vaccinated" against all the lies that TPT(SHOULD NOT)B, we've glassed rolls together, I warned him about pitfalls in the trade, I' even stashed a nice primer book on Ag, as well as handwriting a notebook, just for him, how to, and how NOT to trade Ag, because I WILL NOT allow within my power, and any "control" I have, to have my boy joining some long snaking line, where poor souls line up to get handed some MRE's and a tarp by an NG unit, because I see this happening...someday....when?...only God knows.

and he is a fine young man, so precious to me, a kind soul, but regards his generation as he calls them, a "bunch of neck bread hipsters" He's well saved, water baptized, but has yet to be fire (Holy Spirit) baptized, as he now has his first girlfriend, who shares his bed and apartment....how can I judge him? at 20?....I was a wild child, loved God, but still wild, so.......I have faith, God has a plan for my boy.....but its him I stack for,,,,and as Steve wrote:

"One other thing. People talk about buying low and selling high, but the bottom line is that many don't have the stones to do it. Instead they often say they'll wait til things get better."

Steve, you sure that nail right on the head...."stones"......yer darn tooting, I say just hit the offers, as per the trend?...things are NOT going to "get better" anytime and I think that is a good thing, put some stones back into the men of this nation, instead of the gaggle of the spoiled arrogant limp-wristed nancy boys their looking to be...in short, whatever doesn't kill me, MAKES ME STRONGER.

and finally OB, you know how I think, and I know how you think, that's why i'm your YB, God love you all, very neat thread, neil

ps....Stack, I been mulling over the words, "stone age" for a few days now, in that other thread....brewing, thinking.

[68Camaro]

Well, I was really looking at the price of PM relative to cost of living, and it's hard to compare, but lets do a really basic thought experiment. It's not going to be rigorous science, just a rough assessment.

If we look the earnings of a pre-depression minimum-wage type of job both a common laborer and a retail worker were making about 40 cents per hour about 85 years ago. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2256.pdf

At that time worker wages were relatively high, and silver was dirt cheap compared to historical prices (50+ years earlier silver was 2x the price and wages were half or less, thus silver had previously been 4x higher in the mid 19th century).

Today, minimum wage in many of the non-socialist areas is around $8/hr, so based on earning alone (not expenses) we're talking a factor of 20 different from today. (That's a reasonable ROM to some other estimates and could be low - it could be a factor of 30 or 40 depending on what we're comparing.)

The price of silver at the time was $0.58/oz. So in 1928 it would take about an hour an a half to buy an oz of silver.
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_chart ... graphs.plx

Today it would take ~2 hours of that no-skill job to buy an oz of generic silver. Not much of a difference - perhaps a bit more time, which would suggest that silver from that standpoint alone is a bit overvalued. But, it's actually close. (This doesn't take into account the myriad of other factors that might should be considered, such as the total absence of government demand now versus the de facto silver/gold standard we used to be on, the massive relatively young / rich mines that were still dumping silver into the market, the current possibility of peak silver, etc.)

So there is an argument to be made that the current price of silver is relatively constant versus worker earning compared to a spot-check 85 years ago, a time when silver was relatively cheap (though not the cheapest it would be) and wages were relatively high.

This doesn't prove anything at all. Just an interesting thought.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Well, I was really looking at the price of PM relative to cost of living, and it's hard to compare, but lets do a really basic thought experiment. It's not going to be rigorous science, just a rough assessment.

If we look the earnings of a pre-depression minimum-wage type of job both a common laborer and a retail worker were making about 40 cents per hour about 85 years ago. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2256.pdf

At that time worker wages were relatively high, and silver was dirt cheap compared to historical prices (50+ years earlier silver was 2x the price and wages were half or less, thus silver had previously been 4x higher in the mid 19th century).

Today, minimum wage in many of the non-socialist areas is around $8/hr, so based on earning alone (not expenses) we're talking a factor of 20 different from today. (That's a reasonable ROM to some other estimates and could be low - it could be a factor of 30 or 40 depending on what we're comparing.)

The price of silver at the time was $0.58/oz. So in 1928 it would take about an hour an a half to buy an oz of silver.
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_chart ... graphs.plx

Today it would take ~2 hours of that no-skill job to buy an oz of generic silver. Not much of a difference - perhaps a bit more time, which would suggest that silver from that standpoint alone is a bit overvalued. But, it's actually close. (This doesn't take into account the myriad of other factors that might should be considered, such as the total absence of government demand now versus the de facto silver/gold standard we used to be on, the massive relatively young / rich mines that were still dumping silver into the market, the current possibility of peak silver, etc.)

So there is an argument to be made that the current price of silver is relatively constant versus worker earning compared to a spot-check 85 years ago, a time when silver was relatively cheap (though not the cheapest it would be) and wages were relatively high.

This doesn't prove anything at all. Just an interesting thought.

Great post here.

Being the nostalgic goofball I am, I stopped by my LCS last week and I bought an old newspaper from November 1972 when Nixon won presidential re-election in a landslide. The price on this Sunday paper was 0.10 cents. Browsing through the yellowed pages, I found a bunch of old supermarket ads and stock market quotes. Sirloin steak was 0.60 cents a pound. A new car averaged around $1500-2000. The gold price was $63/ounce. It made me want to accumulate all the gold I can get at the current price. Even if the spot price drops another $100-300, which I believe it will.

Wall Street paper pushers and Federal Reserve banksters all deserve to rot in hell.

[pennypicker]

Wall Street paper pushers and Federal Reserve banksters all deserve to rot in hell.

You can throw in the major oil and insurance companies as well!

[InfleXion]

Well, I was really looking at the price of PM relative to cost of living, and it's hard to compare, but lets do a really basic thought experiment. It's not going to be rigorous science, just a rough assessment.

If we look the earnings of a pre-depression minimum-wage type of job both a common laborer and a retail worker were making about 40 cents per hour about 85 years ago. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2256.pdf

At that time worker wages were relatively high, and silver was dirt cheap compared to historical prices (50+ years earlier silver was 2x the price and wages were half or less, thus silver had previously been 4x higher in the mid 19th century).

Today, minimum wage in many of the non-socialist areas is around $8/hr, so based on earning alone (not expenses) we're talking a factor of 20 different from today. (That's a reasonable ROM to some other estimates and could be low - it could be a factor of 30 or 40 depending on what we're comparing.)

The price of silver at the time was $0.58/oz. So in 1928 it would take about an hour an a half to buy an oz of silver.
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_chart ... graphs.plx

Today it would take ~2 hours of that no-skill job to buy an oz of generic silver. Not much of a difference - perhaps a bit more time, which would suggest that silver from that standpoint alone is a bit overvalued. But, it's actually close. (This doesn't take into account the myriad of other factors that might should be considered, such as the total absence of government demand now versus the de facto silver/gold standard we used to be on, the massive relatively young / rich mines that were still dumping silver into the market, the current possibility of peak silver, etc.)

So there is an argument to be made that the current price of silver is relatively constant versus worker earning compared to a spot-check 85 years ago, a time when silver was relatively cheap (though not the cheapest it would be) and wages were relatively high.

This doesn't prove anything at all. Just an interesting thought.

Maybe not proof, but this says to me that silver has retained its function as a monetary metal. Maybe certain goods and services are overpriced compared to that, but with commodities in general being at such a low price and with the economy being as stagnant as it is, silver is pretty much telling us the dollar buys a lot right now, and that's true compared to the last few years. It's almost as though the industrial aspect of silver hasn't even mattered up to this point because demand has been able to be met, and if and when that does matter it could be a game changer.