Trump

[Thogey]

I'm 'appalled" by this.

I am NOT appalled by something Trump said, or his failure to correct someone for saying.

The use of language is really weird in politics.

[Thogey]

Full disclosure. I like Trump and I was trying to get you all to talk me out of it.

The way I see it is like this: If you hire Trump you are hiring a mercenary. But IF he can be a loyal one, then he might be worth it.

There were intangibles in the debate I thought to lean heavily in his favor. Not committed. We'll see.

[Thogey]

I'm 'appalled" by this.

I am NOT appalled by something Trump said, or his failure to correct someone for saying.

The use of language is really weird in politics.

Actually I did not watch, because I really don't need too add to the horrific crap I've already run through my brain.

I Know of the news story and only feel pity for the people who are complicit in this, outrage (Fu6d up $hit).
It would be better for them had they never been born.

[natsb88]

Full disclosure. I like Trump and I was trying to get you all to talk me out of it.

Trump is a politically incorrect loud mouth. That may be refreshing. So what? His promises are just as impossible and empty as the other egomaniacs in the race.

Trump claims his merit comes from his many years as a successful business man. See my earlier post about how mediocre of a business man he really is. The Donald is rich because he was born rich. He could have parked his inheritance in the S&P forty years ago and would be pretty close to where he is today, but without sucking 70+ banks into a bailout package, having lots of second and third mortgages on the books, and running his casinos into bankruptcy three times, walking away from millions of dollars owed to creditors. There is certainly something to be said for creating jobs along the way, but if you inherit $40 million, spend your entire life using that $40 million to expand and start new businesses, and struggle just to beat the S&P, you aren't really that great with money. Not as bad as Washington, to be sure. But he's not the mogul miracle worker he claims to be.

The top 1% of income earners pay ~35% of all federal income tax in this country. Trump wants an even more progressive tax system with a steeper curve. When you punish people for being successful, they move their operations and money to other countries with more favorable policies. Ironically he wants to lower corporate tax rates for exactly this reason. Not the first time Trump has contradicted himself in tax policy though. He has taken on more progressive views for his presidential run, where he has held more traditional "rich guy" stances in the past. If Trump is consistent on anything, it's that he's consistently inconsistent. A few candidates are calling for a flat tax this campaign cycle. I think that's at least a step in the right direction.

I don't think Trump is quite as bull-headed on foreign policy as some of the others, but I do think he still believes in policing the entire world and is a "my way or the highway" kind of guy. Those policies have not worked well at all for the last 20 years and we need somebody with a much different perspective if we want to see anything other than the status quo.

Trump's biggest talking point is immigration. Most of the other candidates are also calling for increased border security, so that isn't anything special. But Trump wants Mexico to pay for a wall. Ha! That's funny stuff right there. He also wants to deport all illegal immigrants. He claims he can do it quickly and cost effectively. He lies. The lowest estimate I've seen says it costs an average of $10,000 to deport an illegal immigrant. Lots of other estimates put it higher. At current levels, and assuming his wall cuts off 100% of incoming illegal immigrants, it would take ~20 years to deport everybody already here at a cost of $600+ billion. I don't disagree on principal that the "right thing to do" is deport all illegal immigrants and make them start over through legal channels, but the math simply doesn't work. His plan is a talking point and nothing more.

[Treetop]

why 22 Nov 63?....because near to the last day of one the greatest Presidents, Dwight D. Eisenhower, he WARNED us about the military industrial complex. Now why would a bad ass like Ike, wait to his last national speech, to say this? Coz he knew the price truth telling would get you. He wanted to make that speech as early as 1955, but he was wise and canny, instead he made "The Cross of Iron" speech, explaining the cost in real world terms of maintaining a huge offensively canted military.

He definitely warned against letting the military industrial complex control politics. He was in favor of the military industrial complex itself, just didnt want us to let it take over our democracy, or for government funding of science to lead to issues. He spoke of balance in these affairs. Here is the whole speech, its all there. http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/ike.htm

He ran as an alternative to Taft. Taft was the one who wanted us on a non interventionist path. Ike was all for NATO. In fact he was the first SACEUR (Supreme Allied Commander Europe) of NATO The mindset that formed NATO is really what built the american empire as we know it today. It shaped the cold war, it justified the military industrial complex as we now call it as well, Ike wanted all this, just with balance. I mean Ike was CFR afterall. (council of foreign relations) The original "globalists".

In the speech you refer to which I linked above after he talks of balance he goes on to say..

"The record of many decades stands as proof that our people and their Government have, in the main, understood these truths and have responded to them well in the face of threat and stress. But threats, new in kind or degree, constantly arise. Of these, I mention two only. A vital element in keeping the peace is our military establishment. Our arms must be mighty, ready for instant action, so that no potential aggressor may be tempted to risk his own destruction.

Our military organization today bears little relation to that known by any of my predecessors in peacetime, or indeed by the fighting men of World War II or Korea.

Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security more than the net income of all United States corporations. This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence – economic, political, even spiritual – is felt in every city, every Statehouse, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society. "


To highlight it further he also said... "Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together. "

you said as much yourself, but we're the ones who failed ourselves here as a culture. Not the power structure itself. we were the ones who collectively derive more value from the bread and circuses then we do from staying engaged and informed. Heck most "informed" people I meet today that do stay engaged can do so online in such a way they never or rarely even hear things that go against whatever worldview they already had.

[Treetop]

The lowest estimate I've seen says it costs an average of $10,000 to deport an illegal immigrant. Lots of other estimates put it higher. At current levels, and assuming his wall cuts off 100% of incoming illegal immigrants, it would take ~20 years to deport everybody already here at a cost of $600+ billion. I don't disagree on principal that the "right thing to do" is deport all illegal immigrants and make them start over through legal channels, but the math simply doesn't work. His plan is a talking point and nothing more.

I am curious how it could cost so much when transporting even individual criminals is cheaper. I would expect the vast bulk to simply leave once it was obvious what we were going to do. So I highly doubt wed have to herd up all of them. Targeting employers, sources of benefits, driver licenses and the like would also make it a rather crappy place to be for most of them anyway. Most of them came for opportunity, if that evaporates while they also know they are soon to be deported anyway why would they stay? That said while I expect it to be a much cheaper and quicker process then you laid out I dont think we have the heart for it as a nation. Wouldnt be pretty to watch.

[neilgin1]

5:57 is really tough to watch. A fully intact human being....heart beating (I assume)....limbs moving....helpless, naked, and alone in a stainless steel bowl. Dear Lord.

yeh I know....I watched all three so far,and I kept hearing the Words of the prophet Jeremiah in my soul, for those who have read the Bible deep, you KNOW what I speak of, when my people would toss their infants into the fires in the garbage dump in the Valley of Hinnom, just outside the walls of Jerusalem coz they were worshiping a pagan god called molech, the god of pleasure.....God was even aghast, said, "This?....THIS didn't even occur to my mind"....then the Babylonians came, and destroyed the city.

sorry, Thog, I don't mean to go off topic, watching what Sanford watched has f##### me up.....just pure rotten evil.

[hobo finds]

Trump is a Muslim

[fansubs_ca]

He also wants to deport all illegal immigrants. He claims he can do it quickly and cost effectively. He lies. The lowest estimate I've seen says it costs an average of $10,000 to deport an illegal immigrant.

I think it can be done much more cheaply:

#1: Get fence built first. (Like what Isreal has on it's border.)
#2: Get catapults
#3: Give Mexico 30 days notice to set up padded landing areas on other side, whether
they do or don't follow through is not our problem.
#4: Start launching

OK, I did get the idea from The Onion but it would be cheaper...

Personally I'd let the ones that learned English stay and just kick out the ones who
didn't learn English (and the ones who pretend to not speak English), but that's just
my personal opinion. I'm kinda attached to my language.

As for Trump, his history of sticking it to creditors leads me to believe he'ld be the
one to default on the national debt if he were President. I tend to think that could
be the trigger that sets off World War 3 which is not good for any of us.

[commoncents]

The reason I'm sure of:
more mouth than brains and fancy-schmancy hair are not adequate qualifications to perform the office of president.

The reason I suspect but am not certain of:
that Trump is psychologically insecure. People that feel insecure often are verbally aggressive and insulting to cover up.

[neilgin1]

Trump would be our "Mussolini", not hitler.He poses and makes faces like il duce.

His "policy" is just vapor, and vague promises, and given his past record, there is a rash, half thought out, knee jerk kind of thing about him....and would the mil really let him hold the launch codes Thogey?....or would layers of protocol be added.

lets face it, unless we get money out of politics......and cease this revolving door aspect of gov to private and back again, we're cooked.

the guy in now is a disaster, Trump will implode, renege on his 3rd party promise, do a "perot", and hand it over to ?.....Hilary?....Biden?....or heaven help us, Sanders?

and to be frank, the electorate love to go to sleep on the issues, which they have, if you doubt me, go to youtube,put in Mark Dice, and watch some of the street polling he has done...it'll drive you batty

[Thogey]

....and would the mil really let him hold the launch codes Thogey?....

I would trust him with the football far past Fiorina Hillary or Biden. Sanders probably would just leave it at home

[neilgin1]

....and would the mil really let him hold the launch codes Thogey?....

I would trust him with the football far past Fiorina Hillary or Biden. Sanders probably would just leave it at home

a-yup, heard that.

this made me laugh: " Sanders probably would just leave it at home".

y'know, I know SAC stills carries quite a punch, and my boys in the USN glide silent in the boomers, but I think the really cutting edge lethal weps are right over our heads, spacecom.

i'm not wearing tin foil, but remember, about a month ago, the chicoms did some devaluations on their currencies?...right out of the blue? couple days later a funny thing happened to them, in two days, two ports and chem factories exploded. Now I know those things happen, but one happened in the middle of the night, so the chicoms couldn't step on the video images from getting out:



industrial accident?..or course....or, an 8 foot long tungsten blot screaming earthbound at Mach 25?

back on topic, after reading and thinking, listening, i'm going to cast my primary vote for Dr. Ben Carson,

be well Thog, neil

[Thogey]

I am totally digging Trump!

Maybe I am a freak of nature but the things he says seem like complete common sense.

The rebukes to what he says totally pis$ me off. I do fear however that he will bolt as and independent and Hillary will be the next president.

Jeb, Kasich, Linsey Grahm, total weak institutionalized wiennes.

[natsb88]

Promising that Mexico will pay for a border wall is common sense? Promising to deport tens of thousands of illegal immigrants a day is common sense? Calling to ban an entire religion from coming to this country (and making those already here wear identifying badges) because a small percentage are radicals is common sense?

Those are fantasies. Trump's promises are no different than Bernie Sanders promising free healthcare and free college. Completely unrealistic lip service. Just to a different demographic. He can't deliver. He knows he can't deliver. It's textbook campaigning.

A tax plan that vastly increases the number of people who pay $0 without cutting entitlements and benefits is common sense? Continuing the same foreign policy that has plunged half a dozen volatile countries into complete chaos, funding and arming ISIS in the process, is common sense? Trade policies that would make everything made in China more expensive is common sense?

Trump would fit in great in Washington. He was born rich, has run numerous businesses into the ground only to get bailed out, and has plenty of experience talking for hours without saying anything. This 'politically incorrect non-politician running for president' Trump is just a character. He's a reality TV personality. He intentionally says things to stir the pot to keep the media focused on him. That's his only real talent, getting his face on TV a lot. He portrays himself as some kind of outsider. There may be a grain of truth in that...Trump has way more in common with Snooki than Reagan.

The most horrifying thing about Trump isn't what he's doing and promising, because that's exactly what should be expected from him. The scariest thing is how many people are falling for it. It's the same as Sanders on the left. That man is a self-proclaimed socialist promising to make the United States as glorious as Cuba and the former Soviet Union, and people are eating it up . This campaign cycle is a sad reflection of the voting public and the degradation of substantive discourse in American politics.

Gotta get past the sound bites, past the character he is playing. What would a Trump presidency really look like? Somebody with little to no experience in Washington, who made big promises he won't be able to keep, and was elected based on social/celebrity status and personality rather than policy and merit. Who does that sound like?

Trump would be less bad than Hillary in terms of gun control and amnesty, but that's about it. There wouldn't be a big difference in foreign policy, in bailing out TBTF banks, in progressive taxation, in NSA spying, in the overall role of government. You really have to look to Rand Paul or Gary Johnson (assuming he runs) to see any noticeable distinction there.

Oh, and Trump would lose to Hillary anyway.

end rant

Jeb, Kasich, Linsey Grahm, total weak institutionalized wiennes.

I'm with you there. We have one of the largest fields of GOP candidates ever, with the least amount of ideological distinction. The party establishment just wants to see which personality gets the most traction. There's no meaningful policy difference among that lot. Just another McCain or Romney (you would think the party establishment would remember both of those gentlemen losing).

[Thogey]

Your post is definitely true to the thread title

Thanks for the rant. I disagree with almost all of it.

Doing a line by line is a waste of time. I think you would agree.

It all just an opinion anyway. BTW I have no knowledge of Trump's celebrity exploits. I've never seen a Trump show.

But I did watch him speak for like 2 hours at a campaign rally. If he can't deliver everything its understandable.

[Thogey]

What I am learning is that Cruz is a damn genius. I would probably rather see him in the general, especially the debates.

[DoctorMetal]

One of the things I learned in political science classes was that Presidential politics don't matter. Bureaucracies do. It takes almost the full length of a President's two terms to replace the entrenched mid-level bureaucrats who really run things. Holding any presidential candidate to account for being able to get things done or having solid, workable action plans is probably unrealistic. It's all a personality contest, and so-called "platforms" or ten-point plans they post on their websites are little more than empty rhetoric, carefully script-crafted to appeal to key demographic groups. It's all about demographic group voting blocs.

[hobo finds]

Well now what? Can't vote for Hillary don't want to Trump...

[rsk1963]

bring back the bull-moose!

[natsb88]

Well now what? Can't vote for Hillary don't want to Trump...

tillary.jpg (25.49 KiB) Viewed 2509 times

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[Treetop]

I think its funny how freaked out the rest of nato is that trump wants them to pay for our protection. Keep in mind almost none of them are spending the agreed upon % of their GDP on their own military and we are well past sustainable levels of spending ourselves. I dont like trump either but atleast he seems to acknowledge we are on an unsustainable path economically. No idea if he will still care if he wins, but none of the dems or other reps that had a chance acknowledged this at all. The next president will also likely be nominating several supreme court justices and I rather hope to keep my right to bear arms. Trump while not a great pick atleast seems to acknowledge the actual world we live in mostly, we can pretend the current paradigm is sustainable but it isnt. So while thus far Ive always voted third party since I was able to vote, this time trump will get my vote. God help us all.

[knibloe]

Trump has my vote hands down over Hillary. I like his idea about the wall. I do not think that he can legally hold up the wire transfers to Mexico, but if he puts a tax on them, the wall would be paid for very quickly. In regards to deporting them, I agree that he will not have to. If we dry up employment, healthcare, drivers licenses... It will no longer be such a great thing to be here illegally.

If I were to fix it, my plan would be as follows:

1. Build the wall and close the border.
2. Make it easy for them to come and apply for work visas.
3. Before they get their visa: 1. Back ground check. 2. Medical check and ID. They pay for this. They can pay a coyote to help them cross the border, they can pay for these.
4. Tracking system. When I lived in Chile, I had photo ID. Every time I moved, I had to report where I was living.
5. After the above, the flood coming across the border becomes a trickle. We can control the trickle of undesirable people a lot easier than we can the floor of other wise decent people.
6. Now for "amnesty." If you are here illegally, we will give you 2 years of amnesty from prosecution. Go declare yourself, get your background check, medical check, and ID. If you shouldn't be here for some reason, we will deport you. If we catch you here illegally after 2 years you will be prosecuted and deported.

Please feel free to offer any suggestions to the above.

[johnbrickner]

Well, here we are 8 months after the original post and the only thing left is the convention for The Donald. Then the real run. I was seriously hoping Bernie would fair better as I wanted to see which form of tyranny the American public wanted to be ruled under (even though I think I already know) but it now looks like The Donald vs the status quo. I'm still not convinced which way America will go with this one but hedging towards status quo. We'll see.

[Treetop]

To the idea trump couldnt beat hilary, personally I doubt shes got a chance. Ignoring the investigation shes going through (which could take her security clearance or even jail her) shes gotten less votes then when she ran against obama while trump is on track to have more in the primary then any republican in history, and more republicans then ever have voted this primary. Historically this is a big deal, despite what polling has often suggested when one party held office for 8 years no matter what polling shows beforehand the other party has a major advantage because historically the other party will make it to the polls in greater numbers while the party who just had office for 8 years will be more likely to stay home.

Some predictions if he does win. He wont go through normal channels to propose legislation. I expect him to bring issues right to the people through media. If I am right about that expect to see something the left would like and the right would like offered together. He wants to leave a legacy. To make waves. Shake things up. No Im not naive to think it will be positive at all but I do expect it to be much out of the paradigm we are used to. He could easily end up a complete lame duck because of it, or fundamentally change a few things for better or worse. Lets keep in mind hes always supported the left a bit more then he has the right, a true moderate which helps immensely in the general election as well. Both parties try to pretend they are moderates after they get their sides nomination and the general approaches. This is a guy who back in 2000 ran on the reform party on universal healthcare, fair trade and balancing the budget who has spent less then most of the original field so far this cycle to get where he is.

Also expect some of the issues we discuss here to be the forefront of his campaign towards the general election. Our economy, the un sustainability of our spending, the way our trade deals have favored multi nationals and not the american people. Hillary might represent the status quo but that is a horrible place to be when weve ignored so many pressing issues for more then a generation, issues that can and probably wil eventually put us on our knees even if we start acknowledging them politically. What is hilary going to respond with? I am magic and I can sustain the current paradigm by ignoring it? These same issues nearly gave the WH to a third party in 1992 when perot had 40% of the vote based on polling but lost a lot of support after he dropped out and rejoined later. We went on to ignore these types of issues and worse build on them immensely since then so it isnt like people didnt understand it enough to nearly vote in a third party in our lifetimes. Seriously though what can hillary say in response if he did indeed bring up this type of issue in the general election campaign? Do you believe in magic, I know you do, you always have a friend wearing big red shoes! It isnt like many trust her or respect her either, anymore then people do trump. If she spoke out against corruption would anyone believe her outside of mentally challenged people? A few who dont follow politics to well perhaps but not many. I dont actually like trump but atleast he lives on the same physical plane of reality as I do on several major issues.

Another prediction is he would usher in a golden era for political comedy.