$3.99 ASE premium and 90% is plentiful again

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I thought there was a silver shortage?

Right now Ampex has 2015 ASE's for $3.99 over spot (min quantity order) and they have plenty of 90% available for $4.99 above spot. IMO, the premiums will continue to drop.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

[beauanderos]

I thought there was a silver shortage?

Right now Ampex has 2015 ASE's for $3.99 over spot (min quantity order) and they have plenty of 90% available for $4.99 above spot. IMO, the premiums will continue to drop.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

I disagree with you, but time will be the test. This small, recent spike may have shaken loose a few sellers (from those who inherited, not serious stackers)
and, for now, the larders are full. The online dealers temporarily have sufficient stock that they need to adjust premiums lower to clear it out. Once that occurs, and should the price suppression schemes continue, then my bet is that premiums will climb again. I could be wrong, but I'd rather buy early and hang on, then wait for a significant drop (accompanied by lower premiums) and be shut out of the market when retail supply is more difficult to source at "reasonable" premiums at that time. The acid test will be if 90% junk can be sourced cheaply from sellers. If so, premiums will recede. If not, then expect more of the same once this current, temporary, glut gets bought up. All it will take is another dollar down day in silver for all the retail items to disappear.

[68Camaro]

And I disagree - in general - about hype and collusion - not that there isn't some of it.

The primary reason for the rise in premiums for small amounts is the lack of processing surge capacity to take the 1000oz bars and re-process in strips for blanking and coining, and for re-melting or extruding into small bars.

The real sign of a silver shortage will be when 1000 oz bars become hard to source. Supposedly that had started to happen, but the recent demand pulled back just before the big bars became truly scarce.

Demand is still high, no doubt. But not quite as high as capacity to supply, at the moment. 90% is an interesting tell-tale because it (less fakes) is a fixed supply.

[beauanderos]

Maybe you'd like to send a link for the $4.99 above spot price on APMEX? What I saw was $7.49 above on Merc dimes, $6.49 above on Walker halves or Franklin's, even the quarters are $5.49 above. Plentiful? Good thing you're sitting on such a large stash from "years ago" and aren't trying to buy today.
And seems a bit odd you would have acquired no feedback on a site like ours, where prices are much lower than dealers who have overhead costs to consider.

[68Camaro]

Glencore just announced a 500,000 ton/year cut in zinc production. Related by-product metals will have proportionally lowered production as well.

[tdtwedt]

Maybe you'd like to send a link for the $4.99 above spot price on APMEX? What I saw was $7.49 above on Merc dimes, $6.49 above on Walker halves or Franklin's, even the quarters are $5.49 above. Plentiful? Good thing you're sitting on such a large stash from "years ago" and aren't trying to buy today.
And seems a bit odd you would have acquired no feedback on a site like ours, where prices are much lower than dealers who have overhead costs to consider.

http://www.apmex.com/product/27/90-silv ... -value-bag

[beauanderos]

Maybe you'd like to send a link for the $4.99 above spot price on APMEX? What I saw was $7.49 above on Merc dimes, $6.49 above on Walker halves or Franklin's, even the quarters are $5.49 above. Plentiful? Good thing you're sitting on such a large stash from "years ago" and aren't trying to buy today.
And seems a bit odd you would have acquired no feedback on a site like ours, where prices are much lower than dealers who have overhead costs to consider.

http://www.apmex.com/product/27/90-silv ... -value-bag

ah, yes... quarters and cull coins They have to sell their slicks somehow Value bags my ass Anyone care to buy one and report back
on what they receive? I've bought some lots from members that had purchased from Provident (whom I esteem a bit higher) and, trust me, they were nothing
to write home about. I remember getting 200 quarters one time, eleven worth keeping. Still, silver is silver... and the lots that are being retailed nowadays(Gresham's Law) are becoming lower and lower in quality. For that reason (as well as fakes) I no longer patronize ebay.

[highroller4321]

FYI 90% premiums in the wholesale dealer world have dropped over $1 so far. Lots for sale at the $3.25 over spot level. The peak that I saw for average circulation was around $4.50-4.75 over on the wholesale level.

[beauanderos]

FYI 90% premiums in the wholesale dealer world have dropped over $1 so far. Lots for sale at the $3.25 over spot level. The peak that I saw for average circulation was around $4.50-4.75 over on the wholesale level.

$3.25 over spot would be $14.71X face. I'd be happy to sell lots at that price too!

[highroller4321]

FYI 90% premiums in the wholesale dealer world have dropped over $1 so far. Lots for sale at the $3.25 over spot level. The peak that I saw for average circulation was around $4.50-4.75 over on the wholesale level.

$3.25 over spot would be $14.71X face. I'd be happy to sell lots at that price too!

15.82+3.25= $19.07 x .715 = 13.63x face

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Price goes up about 10%, now all of the sudden, supply is back?

Dealers who are not hedged (60-70% of them) hold back inventory because they bought at higher prices.

There is NO shortage... there NEVER was.

[beauanderos]

Price goes up about 10%, now all of the sudden, supply is back?

Dealers who are not hedged (60-70% of them) hold back inventory because they bought at higher prices.

There is NO shortage... there NEVER was.

This part of your reasoning I agree with... very likely some truth to it. The following opinion is subject to debate.
There was, as was quite evident, a shortage of silver that was available for sale at the prices the market was driven down to.

I do feel that the above ground supply is depleting, though. Not gonna concede that point. Depends, I guess, on your definition of "a shortage." What
constitutes a shortage? A market that manifests a 100 million per year deficit of supply to demand? Just wait until the effect of several mines getting
closed, mothballed, production quotas cut hits... or they quit high-grading the veins. I'd prefer to have more time to stack, so I'd just as soon not see
prices go ballistic any time soon... but they will, someday.

[beauanderos]

You can deal with this issue by always buying whatever form of precious metals has the lowest premium, be it gold, generic .999, larger silver bars, whatever. You
can always sell or trade those items later, if premiums revert to more tolerable percentages above spot.

[natsb88]

There is NO shortage... there NEVER was.

That's far too broad and assertive a statement to defend. There's no context. On what level? In what market? At what time? You are saying that because the premium on ASE's rose from $2 - $3 to $5 - $7 (no minimum), then dropped to $4 (with a minimum qty), and that bottom barrel 90% went from $1 - $2 over, to not available at all, to $5 over, at one dealer, that there was never a shortage of retail physical silver? That's like standing in your backyard and saying, "there are no dinosaurs here now, so there were never dinosaurs anywhere."

Was there an overall global shortage of the element silver? Definitely not.

But when a dealer sells their shelves bare in a short period of time, and then finds that the US Mint has suspended orders and private mints are backlogged and 4-8 weeks out on delivery, that dealer is certainly experiencing a shortage. The shortage is in small retail physical silver bullion on dealer shelves, not collectively in the element silver.

When a natural disaster strikes, the area hit will often run out of generators and gasoline. There doesn't need to be a global shortage of generators and gasoline for there to be a very real shortage in one sector of the market that is hit with a sudden spike in demand. If you want a generator and gasoline in that market during that time, it's going to cost more than usual. Small retail physical bullion is just one small sector of the silver market, and experiences the same market forces. If you want small retail physical silver at the same time as a spike in demand, it's going to be harder to find and cost more (over spot) than usual.

It is certainly temporary. So for silver, it becomes a question of whether spot will stay at the low level long enough for supply to catch up so premiums drop, or whether spot will rebound enough before the premiums drop to eat up the potential savings of waiting. It can and has gone both ways. And it can go different ways for different products. Privately minted ("generic") silver usually comes back faster than government silver.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

I think you are confusing natural market forces with "collusion." There is nothing mysterious or evil going on. Just basic supply and demand economics.

Dealers who are not hedged (60-70% of them) hold back inventory because they bought at higher prices.

They don't "hold back" inventory so much as they simply don't drop the price down to match the movement in spot. If they bought at $20 on Day 1, and spot drops to $15 the next day, you can either buy the stuff that is still priced at the $20 level and say the premium "went up," or you can wait 4-6 weeks for new stuff to arrive that the dealer ordered at the $15 level. Either way you are not likely to find $15 physical silver a day after there was $20 physical silver. It takes time for a significant drop to propagate from the source (paper silver) through the supply chain (metal brokers, mints, and distributors) all the way to the end product (retail physical silver on a dealer shelf). Shortages in retail physical silver following a drop in spot price are temporary, but real.

[tdtwedt]

There is NO shortage... there NEVER was.

That's far too broad and assertive a statement to defend. There's no context. On what level? In what market? At what time? You are saying that because the premium on ASE's rose from $2 - $3 to $5 - $7 (no minimum), then dropped to $4 (with a minimum qty), and that bottom barrel 90% went from $1 - $2 over, to not available at all, to $5 over, at one dealer, that there was never a shortage of retail physical silver? That's like standing in your backyard and saying, "there are no dinosaurs here now, so there were never dinosaurs anywhere."

Was there an overall global shortage of the element silver? Definitely not.

But when a dealer sells their shelves bare in a short period of time, and then finds that the US Mint has suspended orders and private mints are backlogged and 4-8 weeks out on delivery, that dealer is certainly experiencing a shortage. The shortage is in small retail physical silver bullion on dealer shelves, not collectively in the element silver.

When a natural disaster strikes, the area hit will often run out of generators and gasoline. There doesn't need to be a global shortage of generators and gasoline for there to be a very real shortage in one sector of the market that is hit with a sudden spike in demand. If you want a generator and gasoline in that market during that time, it's going to cost more than usual. Small retail physical bullion is just one small sector of the silver market, and experiences the same market forces. If you want small retail physical silver at the same time as a spike in demand, it's going to be harder to find and cost more (over spot) than usual.

It is certainly temporary. So for silver, it becomes a question of whether spot will stay at the low level long enough for supply to catch up so premiums drop, or whether spot will rebound enough before the premiums drop to eat up the potential savings of waiting. It can and has gone both ways. And it can go different ways for different products. Privately minted ("generic") silver usually comes back faster than government silver.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

I think you are confusing natural market forces with "collusion." There is nothing mysterious or evil going on. Just basic supply and demand economics.

Dealers who are not hedged (60-70% of them) hold back inventory because they bought at higher prices.

They don't "hold back" inventory so much as they simply don't drop the price down to match the movement in spot. If they bought at $20 on Day 1, and spot drops to $15 the next day, you can either buy the stuff that is still priced at the $20 level and say the premium "went up," or you can wait 4-6 weeks for new stuff to arrive that the dealer ordered at the $15 level. Either way you are not likely to find $15 physical silver a day after there was $20 physical silver. It takes time for a significant drop to propagate from the source (paper silver) through the supply chain (metal brokers, mints, and distributors) all the way to the end product (retail physical silver on a dealer shelf). Shortages in retail physical silver following a drop in spot price are temporary, but real.

Great post !

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

All of this stuff has happened in the past many times... the supply gets tight, premiums skyrocket, then supply slowly comes back and the premiums gradually come back down.

People keep waiting for it to be "different this time". The only thing different now is that Ag prices have dropped a whopping 68% since May 2011.

[Mr Paradise]

Price goes up about 10%, now all of the sudden, supply is back?

Dealers who are not hedged (60-70% of them) hold back inventory because they bought at higher prices.

There is NO shortage... there NEVER was.

What he said.


Don't fall for the "it's running out" hype from the usual suspects folks, there's plenty of Ag in this thar world.

[pennypicker]

I thought there was a silver shortage?

Right now Ampex has 2015 ASE's for $3.99 over spot (min quantity order) and they have plenty of 90% available for $4.99 above spot. IMO, the premiums will continue to drop.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

Provident has Apmex beat today with 2015 ASE's at $3.79 over spot (any quantity).

[beauanderos]

I thought there was a silver shortage?

Right now Ampex has 2015 ASE's for $3.99 over spot (min quantity order) and they have plenty of 90% available for $4.99 above spot. IMO, the premiums will continue to drop.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

Provident has Apmex beat today with 2015 ASE's at $3.79 over spot (any quantity).

why not support our own members? Christostock will match or beat any online pricing you can find

[pennypicker]

I thought there was a silver shortage?

Right now Ampex has 2015 ASE's for $3.99 over spot (min quantity order) and they have plenty of 90% available for $4.99 above spot. IMO, the premiums will continue to drop.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

Provident has Apmex beat today with 2015 ASE's at $3.79 over spot (any quantity).

why not support our own members? Christostock will match or beat any online pricing you can find

My intent was not to promote Provident but instead to show that premiums are slowly coming back down on ASE's.

[H2SO4]

Great thread all! I am really enjoying it my the changes in markets, it is just interesting to watch. Sucks to try and guess what's next - should I get 90% or Ase? Only time will tell!

[daviscfad]

I thought there was a silver shortage?

Right now Ampex has 2015 ASE's for $3.99 over spot (min quantity order) and they have plenty of 90% available for $4.99 above spot. IMO, the premiums will continue to drop.

Like I've said before, it's been hype and collusion among the bullion sellers.

Provident has Apmex beat today with 2015 ASE's at $3.79 over spot (any quantity).

why not support our own members? Christostock will match or beat any online pricing you can find

I agree.. its just to darn convenient to buy from chris

[daviscfad]

The sell price seems to be the same, wether your at 14 or 16.. i kust enjoy buying silver for less than 20.. especially since i though 30 was the new norm and bought a lot there

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

90% now $3.99 over spot at Ampex. Everything's in stock.


SHORTAGE!

[beauanderos]

90% now $3.99 over spot at Ampex. Everything's in stock.


SHORTAGE!

I don't even know why we bother refuting you. Go ahead and laugh, it's clear to everyone in the forum what your role is.
But you go ahead, keep highlighting the lowest priced quarters availability (at their loss leader prices).

APMEX PRICING
http://www.apmex.com/category/52847/mercury-dimes-1916-1945-silver-coins-rolls-bags $6.99 over, $7.99 over
http://www.apmex.com/category/52847/mercury-dimes-1916-1945-silver-coins-rolls-bags $4.49 over
http://www.apmex.com/category/52557/walking-liberty-half-dollars-1916-1947-silver-coins-rolls-bags $5.99 over

PROVIDENT PRICING
http://www.providentmetals.com/90-junk-silver-us-coins-1-face-value-715-troy-ounces.html $5.43 over (dimes? and quarters)
http://www.providentmetals.com/90-junk-silver-us-coins-1-face-value-715-troy-ounces.html $7.99 over (halves)

And, unless you're willfully blind... their was a retail shortage that has temporarily abated.