Easy Money... woohoo!

[beauanderos]

Just bet a C note with a coworker that Trump will not win the Presidency. Easiest money I'll ever make. Despite his popularity among a hardcore
group of Republicans... he is just not electable. Few Hispanics will vote for him, most women hate him, I don't think there will be enough "I hate Hillary"
crossover votes to help him... and the GOP body hates him, and are desperate to find anyone but him to rally behind. If he goes independent, he won't
garner the votes. This isn't about his policies, some of which I support. It isn't about his bombast, which I deplore. I just don't think he can win.

I sure as hell don't want Hillary or Sanders, but I might as well make a hundred off this.

Come here, my precious little seven ounces

[Treetop]

WAAAAY to early to call this one. We don't even know what trumps platform would be should he win the nomination. Saw a poll recently as much as 20% of democrats would consider voting for him, only 14% of republicans would consider voting for hilary. Will he inspire new voters as obama did? So far polling would suggest he potentially will get new voters to the polls, same thing gave obama an edge.

"and the GOP body hates him, and are desperate to find anyone but him to rally behind."

This just might be his biggest asset assuming the mainstream gop still rallies behind him if he gets the nomination. Hes barely spent anything yet or even bothered to raise funds. He is likely the most centrist person up there going on past issues he hasnt really raised in that context this time around. Something I expect will be more obvious if or when he gets the republican nomination. For presidential elections centrists are the winners. Both sides try to pretend they are centrists once they have their sides nomination. Sanders and hilary have little room to grow in that regard while trumps record would indicate that is where he naturally fits anyway.

Based on comments sections of many many sites, hilary supporters dont seem to inspired and seem mostly mainstream dems. Sanders seems to draw mostly the confused and emotional. Trump seems to draw the angry. I like to engage each group with what I consider spoilers for each mindset, and in my personal exp trump supporters arent going anywhere. Its rather easy to get the conviction of both sanders and hilary supporters to waiver much like 8 years ago when I did this obama had rock solid support and it was easy to get republican or hilary support to waiver. Based on that I was calling it for obama as a likely winner while most official sources claimed obama had no chance. He hadnt overthrown hilary yet. A huge factor is who bothers to show up election day. There is something hidden in the stats of the last few elections on this, we had more voters overall then any other election on both sides BUT this included many new voters of which the dems had more new voters. Republicans had more old voters who stayed home last time. I forget the exact numbers its been a long time but it proved a MAJOR factor, enough they could have won if republicans showed up en force,, easy to miss since there were still more voters overall.

Biggest factor though imo is we dont even know what his platform will be and wont until he either gets the republican nomination or not. Hes running versus other republicans atm not the democrats.

If I had to guess today, It would be trump for sure. Only one in contention thats unelectable imo is sanders. He wants to tear down to big to fail banking, use tariffs (anti free trade) which in the end shrinks our economy while also wanting 90% tax rates and to expand federal spending. This guy will have deep pockets on both sides hating him. Potentially the types of red flags that get presidential hopefuls a bullet or a plane wreck.