Something Wicked This Way Comes

[beauanderos]

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/22-signs-that-the-global-economic-turmoil-we-have-seen-so-far-in-2016-is-just-the-beginning

[plus1hdcp]

Interesting statistics. January was a wild ride for the stock market.

[Treetop]

Pretty sure number "6. Rail traffic is also slowing down substantially. In Colorado, there are hundreds of train engines that are just sitting on the tracks with nothing to do." is false. I know people who work on the tracks. We are expanding them in several areas, throwing billions in projects, and according to them both nationally and my local tracks are increasing their traffic for many years in a row. It is the cheaper way to ship things of course. They are under the impression it is specifically because of the economy that it is expected rail traffic will continue to increase and other means shrink.

[plus1hdcp]

Pretty sure number "6. Rail traffic is also slowing down substantially. In Colorado, there are hundreds of train engines that are just sitting on the tracks with nothing to do." is false. I know people who work on the tracks. We are expanding them in several areas, throwing billions in projects, and according to them both nationally and my local tracks are increasing their traffic for many years in a row. It is the cheaper way to ship things of course. They are under the impression it is specifically because of the economy that it is expected rail traffic will continue to increase and other means shrink.

In the eastern US, I would agree with the statement of the blogger. The majority of rail traffic in Eastern TN, SW VA, KY, and southern WV is obviously coal traffic and the traffic is way down. I wish I could remember the newspaper article from my local paper discussing the cutbacks of the train engineers and the associated track employees. This very well could be locality dependent but I offer this as a different view.

For the record, I am a supporter of rail traffic as it appears to be the most cost effective means of transportation of goods. I am also disappointed in the decline of the coal industry. It is a shame that we are not really a country that produces product but is a consumer oriented country.

[Treetop]

couldnt find the stats for 2015, but rail traffic was up for 2014 and the several years before it nationwide. BNSF is expanding to the tune of several billion worth of new track atm. I live close to a very busy track. they take double stacked trains through here all day. Couldnt even drive those through most areas.

[plus1hdcp]

i guess that is why everyones corner of the world paints a different picture. Just because "something" is not working out in one community does not mean it is not thriving somewhere else. I did find my reference story to what is going on in my community. Glad it is not a similar story in your neck of the woods.

http://wjhl.com/2015/10/15/csx-to-reduc ... -300-jobs/

[68Camaro]

https://www.aar.org/pages/freight-rail- ... -data.aspx

Took one search and the first hit from that to find it. 2015 railway freight traffic is down a lot, especially the last 12+ weeks.

First graph on the page, plot for past three years (some noise in first half of year, but last quarter - a ghastly drop) check.

Second graph on the page, bar chart for past 4 years, check.

Third graph on the page, bar chart of total tonnage 2005-2014 - clearly the 2007-2008 recession didn't hit traffic until 2009, and since then it's never recovered to 2008 levels. There was a direction toward recovery in 2010-11 which fell again in 2012 (suggesting as has been frequently said outside the MSM that we never actually recovered), and another attempt to recover in 2013-14 (still below 2008), which has clearly not happpened in 2015 even though the tonnage data isn't plotted yet. Check.

Conclusion from this: we never fully pulled out of the 2008 recession (despite borrowing another 9 trillion dollars - enough by itself to fund the entire GDP of the US for a full year during that span) and we're about to go down for a second round; this time even harder. Think we're going to borrow another 9 trillion dollars over the next few years. Hmmm. Probably not - who would loan it to us? Anyone that could finance it is broke and up to their ears in debt and derivative debt. Money printing is on the way, as an intermediate solution. Then? Maybe war. Hate to say it, don't want to see it, and if so it could be a bad one, but it's an historical fact that these types of things end in a major war.

[plus1hdcp]

BTW, Treetop, I am a railway observation fan and would love to watch and photograph some of the trains which I have seen pics of out west.

[Treetop]

Third graph on the page, bar chart of total tonnage 2005-2014 - clearly the 2007-2008 recession didn't hit traffic until 2009, and since then it's never recovered to 2008 levels. There was a direction toward recovery in 2010-11 which fell again in 2012 (suggesting as has been frequently said outside the MSM that we never actually recovered), and another attempt to recover in 2013-14 (still below 2008), which has clearly not happpened in 2015 even though the tonnage data isn't plotted yet. Check.

It actually tells the same story I got from my friend if you click through the various shipped items on that third chart. Overall its trended up the last few years, but when you break it down per item coal and coke and others are way down. while many other items are trending up the last few years. I would guess this deals more with a re organization of how some things are moved. The story they get through their company (BNSF) is that its specifically because the economy is struggling that the railroads had been trending up. until 2015 apparently. BNSF is still spending billions on expansion so presumably they expect railroads to be profitable.

[IdahoCopper]

The beef jerky index is down 22% from last January. Source = beefjerky.com.

Nobody Needs premium jerky, its a luxury good. It is a leading edge indicator of the economy.

[johnbrickner]

Regarding the railroad charts from Camaro's freight rail data:

When I click thru the different items on the tonnage shipped chart, I have to ask "what is going on that crude industrial sand, crude petroleum, and crushed sand/rock have increased so significantly much?"

[Treetop]

Regarding the railroad charts from Camaro's freight rail data:

When I click thru the different items on the tonnage shipped chart, I have to ask "what is going on that crude industrial sand, crude petroleum, and crushed sand/rock have increased so significantly much?"

Do they use those things with fracking? If not Id assume it was just a reorganization of how some things are moved. Tried looking into it for a bit and didnt find the answer.

[68Camaro]

I was delayed in posting but yes the expanded oil is from fracking output combined with the lack of a new north south pipeline. And sand and aggregate does get used in oil shale, though I'm not sure that is the sole reason for greater shipments.

[johnbrickner]

Makes sense. I was thinking a lack of pipelines for the fracked crude oil but, couldn't figure at all the rest.

[beauanderos]

interesting looking at the bar charts for monthly traffic. Really tapers off in Dec/Jan over the years, but REALLY plummeted this last Dec.