Trump

[Treetop]

Been watching polls for weeks. Hillary has no chance in the world imo. Especially after wikileaks showed us the DNC has been purposely trying to keep sanders down. Trump has leads in key battle ground states ALL of which hillary has much higher unfavorable ratings in. Trump does even better when they include the green party candidate and gary johnson in the poll. Trump got major boosts after his nomination speech and we can expect many people havent seen it yet. Hillary offers no new vision which is among the reasons there were 6 DNC debates this year compared to 27 in 08. Her stance has been hide and wait. Meanwhile trump is in everyones face and increasingly coherent as he continues to define real plans. We have dems confiscating bernie signs at the convention. Shouts from bernie supporters "hell no DNC, we wont vote for hillary". Based on polls If i remember right about 20% of bernie supporters are considering trump and many more are not planning to vote at all. There is no apology or remorse from the DNC for favoring hillary over sanders, all they do is blame russia which comes off as stale and meaningless. The hack is actually traced to a romanian hacker anyway so while its not impossible russia was involved I follow comments on a range of sites and no one who seems to care about the fact they favored hillary cares even a little what the source was. It seems being willing to do anything to win is already blowing up in her face. A friend of mine that loves bernie WANTS trump to win with the idea he will force people further into socialism, I doubt he is alone. Meanwhile I know several and have seen many more in comments on various sites that are turning to trump from gary johnson for a range of issues, like TPP, and an infowars article covering a few hillary delegates discussing how the dems word gun related issues so they can keep eople calm while trying to ban guns. Johnson wouldnt want to ban guns but he cannot win so some of those I know are going to trump for that reason alone.

We will see in a few days but I doubt hillary will get a good convention boost at all. Might even drop as the dems try to crush the voices of sanders voters even more. Imo it is trumps election to loose not win now. If he stays on the same track without any really bad coverage outside of whats been said about him already its his. He potentially still has alot of ground to gain as well, considering how much of a boost his nomination speech gave him as more and more people talk out the issues.

Hillaries best shot is having friends at diebold. This is now trumps election to loose. imo.

[Chief]

Been watching polls for weeks. Hillary has no chance in the world imo. Especially after wikileaks showed us the DNC has been purposely trying to keep sanders down...

Don't forget, there are more emails to be leaked by wikileaks. I hope the Democratic Party burns to the ground. I'm a registered democrat.

[johnbrickner]

Interesting to watch the decline of both Major Political Parties happen right now. Would you dare call it political decentralization? And it's happening from within each party. Direct outside activism playing little or no part. I couldn't be happier. I also have my awareness on alert. The times they are a changing. The decline is not pretty.

I went to a fund raising dinner (not $100/plate) for Andre Marrou when I still lived in the OC. Still have The Register's news paper photo (now almost 25 years old) of my arm shaking his hand, but with my wife as the center of the photo. So much for my 5 min of fame. LOL.

During his dinner speech he defined politicians as Poly = many and Tics = blood sucking parasites. Seems the Tics have become Termites and are now eating the foundations of their own homes (Some overzealous reporter is now going to call me out for calling American's with French Heritage "Tic racists"; See: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic ... 30&t=25409).

[Treetop]

Hillaries nomination speech was pretty wild. I havent finished it yet but somewhere towards the middle after saying alot of the types of things she has said so far with a few sentences she laid out literally most of the major points trump has said then said "you didnt hear any of this from trump last week in cleveland did you?", to which the crowd cheered no. Except 100% of the points she had made the few sentences before he had, and well its recorded for all who bother to look. She even claimed trump was afraid to answer questions in front of the media and questioned his honesty because of it when anyone paying attention at all knows trump does this often and shes been hiding out the entire election. Some of the left might never realize these obvious outright blatant lies before the election but no doubt many will see she lied about yet another thing before then. Instead of just standing strong on her stances she acted like most of trumps were her own and it was the first time I heard her say most of them and several we know 100% she doesnt in fact agree with that she implied she does and not trump. No way that doesnt backfire on her atleast a little imo. Not with a challenger like trump.

[natsb88]

It shouldn't be a surprise that a lot of Hillary's positions sound like Trump's positions. They have a lot of common ground (beyond the fact that Trump gave her and Bill lots of money and they were quite friendly prior to this election cycle). Only in recent months has Trump shifted to more "conservative" positions on issues where they previously were in agreement. Even when he launched his campaign website last year it advocated for a single-payer healthcare system and an assault weapons ban. They both want a big increase in the federal minimum wage (Trump says $10 where Hillary says $12) and higher taxes on "the rich." They both endorse the NSA, spying on US citizens, and internet censorship. Looking back they both advocated for bank bailouts and Trump called for intervention in Libya, which Hillary proceeded with and it was (and is) a disaster. Hillary is quite possibly the most hawkish democratic nominee in history, and Trump the most left-leaning "conservative" nominee in history. That leaves us with an illusion of choice. You can be sure that if Trump wins, the GOP will continue migrating left on a lot of issues, and it will be even harder for an actual conservative to get anywhere next time around.

[Treetop]

I think you missed the point. Most of the things I was referring to were lumped together in her speech and positons she has never expressed before, then she makes a point of saying trump never said such things. Several she has been diametrically opposed to and are defining issues that separate them and always have even when trump was more open about being a moderate. It was rather clear she just wanted to try to steal some of his thunder.

[scyther]

Trump and Hillary both want an "assault weapons" ban and a federally mandated waiting period for gun purchases. (Hillary of course wants a lot more).

Trump and Hillary both want government-run universal healthcare. Think about that. Obamacare was designed by Democrats to fail after a few years so Democrats could say "we tried to work with insurance companies and hospitals but they're just too greedy, we need the government to take over" and try to push universal healthcare. Now we have a presumptive GOP nominee who supports government-run healthcare anyway. Might as well just hand it over.

Trump and Hillary both want more progressive income taxes. Trump also wants huge tariffs on imports from China to "bring back jobs." It may boost some domestic manufacturing, but only because it would artificially increase prices by 50%. We're talking consumables, household goods, electronics... this hurts the lower and middle class more than a relatively small number of new jobs will offset. All that new government revenue from tariffs would be paid by the end consumer, not China. Tariffs would hurt the same segment that Hillary's higher minimum wage would (and Trump put a higher minimum wage back on the table after previously opposing it).

Trump and Hillary both support domestic spying and warrantless surveillance and data collection. Trump has called for increased government control over the internet, including the ability to censor/block websites the government considers "dangerous" and having the ability to shut down internet access (the proverbial "internet killswitch"). Trump and Hillary both support aggressive law enforcement and militarization of local police. Trump's deportation dreams would require a "halt and show your papers" approach.

Trump and Hillary both support torture and indefinite detention at Guantanamo. Trump said he would send Americans there if they were suspected of supporting Isis. Who needs due process?

Trump and Hillary are both crony capitalists. Hillary sells influence for huge speaking fees and donations to the Clinton foundation. Trump's family money came from building housing for the government and he's been greasing palms for almost 50 years. In the 70s he used political connections to get a 40-year tax abatement on the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Manhattan (boils down to getting tens of millions in tax subsidies). In 1985 he circumvented campaign finance laws (making donations from many separate Trump companies) to give $30k to Andrew Stein, a member of the board that makes zoning and land use decisions in Manhattan. In the 90s Trump tried to get the city of Bridgeport, CT to become "partners" with one of his companies so they could use their power of condemnation to take property from five existing businesses where he wanted to build a new amusement park. Also in the 90s he tried to use eminent domain to force a widow out of her house in Atlantic City after she refused to sell. He wanted to build a parking lot. Trump celebrated the 2005 SCOTUS ruling that determined eminent domain could be used for private development. He spent a decade in NY courts arguing that gambling would ruin the state because he didn't want any competition for his NJ casinos. Just a few examples...

Don't forget that prior to this election cycle Trump was very close with Bill and Hillary, saying "Hillary would have made a great president," and their daughters are friends. He has given lots of money to Democrats (including the Clintons). Trump has switched parties several times. He was a Democrat from 2001-2009, Republican 2009-2011, Independent in 2011, then switched back to Republican for this election cycle. I don't put much weight in party affiliation, but he's certainly not a consistent conservative.

I sympathize with the view that Trump is the lesser of two evils. I can't stomach the idea of actually cheering him on. He is "slightly less bad," at best.

You make some great points. Trump isn't conservative, libertarian, or even remotely palatable as a candidate. And yet I'm still going to vote for him, partially because I think it would be hilarious to have him as a president, partially because the regressive left hates him so much, and partially because I hate Hillary. The Democratic party, and the political left in America in general, has moved so far left in the last 8 years that anyone who isn't on board with their agenda (socialism, radical race and gender politics, etc.) is someone I'm willing to vote for at this point. Liberals used to laugh and call Republicans "fear mongers" for calling Obama a socialist... now they call themselves socialists. I think that's pretty frightening. While I don't trust Trump to nominate conservative justices, I know for sure Hillary will nominate terrible ones. The first and second amendment will both have a hard time surviving a third Democratic term, to say the least. And while it may be petty, I would get some personal satisfaction out of Hillary not getting to be president.

Of course, one vote never makes a difference, so I could just vote libertarian like I did in 2012. But is Gary Johnson a libertarian? He doesn't think businesses should be allowed to discriminate against homosexuals, so no. I'm pretty sure he has some other issues as well. Of course I'd still vote for him if I thought he could win, but he can't. The whole point of voting third party is to send a message, and Gary Johnson sends the wrong message about libertarianism.

[scyther]

I'll still take some action on this. Even odds.

I haven't done transactions here, so I can understand if you don't trust me, but I'd make a $100 bet that Trump won't win.

[Thogey]

I'll still take some action on this. Even odds.

I haven't done transactions here, so I can understand if you don't trust me, but I'd make a $100 bet that Trump won't win.

If someone. established with feedback, who is acceptable to both of us will hold the money.
I'll take your action

[scyther]

Eh... I was thinking the loser would just send the winner the money.

[Thogey]

Eh... I was thinking the loser would just send the winner the money.

I'll bet you did.


If you want the action (man with 0 feedback) I'll take it. But I don't know you.

I'll send $100-1000 to our broker, so will you, and have a bet.

[Thogey]

The first bet I made after leaving the USAF was on the
Tyson Holyfield rematch.
Did a bet on a handshake about week before the fight. Guy Was a "friend of a friend".

Tyson was DQed because he decided to bite a piece of Evander's ear off

Guy refused to pay. He was bigger, meaner, and connected. I ate $hit.
We both pay in and the game is on. It protects us both.

[AlexTG]

Hope you guys can make it happen. Nobody I know will take my even odds trump wins bet.

[Thogey]

Hope you guys can make it happen. Nobody I know will take my even odds trump wins bet.

I picked up a 1to1 here for 100 already.
Just so you all know. I have picked wrong 6-1 since I started betting on these.

I voted for Perot . I was pro desert storm and OIF

I named my kid Sterling. Sterling Marlin, who broke his neck and ended a potential Winston Cup championship, just before my son was born.

I am the only man on the planet who lost money on bad wal-mart plays.

I once turned $60 into $3000 and back into 0 New Town ND "4 Bears Casino" IN A DOUBLE ODDS CRAP GAME $25 LIMIT. (you crap players can understand )

Take the bet
'

[Thogey]

Double post? deleted

[hobo finds]

I'll still take some action on this. Even odds.

I haven't done transactions here, so I can understand if you don't trust me, but I'd make a $100 bet that Trump won't win.

If someone. established with feedback, who is acceptable to both of us will hold the money.
I'll take your action

I can hold the funds if needed

[johnbrickner]

<snip> Guy refused to pay. He was bigger, meaner, and connected. I ate $hit.
We both pay in and the game is on. It protects us both.

Yea, better to find an intermediary:

thaweatherman on Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:51 pm

Brick's wrote: "I beg to disagree. I have complete faith in the complete asnine-ness of the general merka public to nominate Mr. Trump for the Republican ticket. Why, you may ask? Because he's a Star, the biggest Celebrity with the most name recognition out there of ALL the candidates. I'm not quite convinced he will win all the cookies . . . yet. Need a bit more time for that one.

Even willing to gentlemen's bet you on this one and say "I was wrong" on this forum, if I am. Of course, if I am that would mean a complete overhaul of my matrix of understanding the general merka public. For which I would be very glad if I am, as that would give me a glimmer of sincere hope. Something, I'm seriously short of these days except for the occasional glimmer in today's young people."

thaweatherman wrote: "Deal! We need a witness! I'll even put an ounce of shiny on it, it being that Trump doesn't get the nomination, not whether or not he could win all the marbles."


Just from personal experience with these kinds of bets on a similar forum. Still waiting for any kind of reply, indication, or payoff.

[Thogey]

[

I can hold the funds if needed

I'm good with this.

Scyther?

[68Camaro]

While it's interesting that bets are being placed, rather that seek profit for guessing the correct outcome (even if it might be a deplorable outcome that I don't want), I've decided to put my money on doing what I can to shift the odds and ensure that the actual outcome is what I would prefer of the two choices. So I just did something that I'm not sure I've ever done before which is give money to a Presidential campaign. Rather than contributing to someone, I consider this contributing against the person that I most want defeated.

In the spirit of balance I'm listing the donation sites for both the major campaigns. I presume anyone who has read some of my recent posts in other threads can tell which one that I will NOT be giving to.

https://secure.trump2016.com/july-eom/

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/donate/

[Thogey]

Both candidates have plenty of money.

Take the bet!

[Thogey]

I have a hypothesis, recommended for further study.

The reason why people want to vote for Trump, is not because they like Trump. It's because they despise the people that hate him.


I developed this because I really enjoy (non-christian behavior) watching "them" squirm.

[Silverholic]

Hope you guys can make it happen. Nobody I know will take my even odds trump wins bet.

If I'm reading you correctly you're taking trump and I'll take Hillary straight up? I'll take your bet (although I hope neither of them wins... Lol). What do you want to wager?

[Thogey]

Throw out a number. I'll walk to the other end of the trailer to take a crap.

[Silverholic]

Throw out a number. I'll walk to the other end of the trailer to take a crap.

Hey thogey I thought it was alextg that wanted to bet but if you want to take the same bet I'm game... What about 5 Oz of silver whatever form (I'd be willing to do up to 10oz as well). Loser pays shipping. Or since this is a "cent" forum what about a sfrb full of wheaties? Up to you. Thanks.

[beauanderos]

only us "insiders" will figure this out... but yes, look who is supporting Hillary and then decide if you'd rather not back Trump.