DOW 21,000+ (DOW 3000 to follow)

[68Camaro]

Originally: DOW 18,000+ (DOW 3000 to follow)
Changed to DOW 19000+ on 12/2/2016. Note that Art Laffer (of Laffer curve fame) predicted DOW 20K to 25K this morning on Stuart Varney.
Changed to DOW 21,000+ on 3/1/2017

As fast as the world is printing bills perhaps this will even be DOW 20,000 or 25,000 before this all goes to crap.

But what goes up must come back down, especially when it is based solely on plastic and cellulose.

The only question is when, both to the peak and the next major valley.

Be careful out there, especially you all dabbling in paper.

[aloneibreak]

i fear for folks nearing retirement age having "faithfully" invested in their 401ks for years...

[68Camaro]

Not saying this is the start of anything, but 700 points can sure disappear in a flash can't it now?

[Recyclersteve]

700 points sounds like a lot, but that means we're only about 4% away from a new all-time high.

[68Camaro]

It also could mean 25 weeks away from Dow of zero. But both mean nothing in any of itself.

The larger point is that the market is a fickle beast but worse; for some time it has been manipulated to such a high level that the market indices have no meaning except when they move out of control. It will be the lack of control itself that has meaning. A 700 point surge or drop isn't quite that level of change. But it is a reminder of the type of change to look for.

[IdahoCopper]

This market bubble is solely fueled by the fed's QE programs. That money has to go somewhere, so it goes into equities. Asset prices increased due to all the counterfeit money injected into the system. When/If the spigot is finally turned off, that "money" "invested" in equities will evaporate as the bubble pops. Hard to say what course the money-printers will take after this one. But most likely, more of the same.

[68Camaro]

This market bubble is solely fueled by the fed's QE programs. That money has to go somewhere, so it goes into equities. Asset prices increased due to all the counterfeit money injected into the system. When/If the spigot is finally turned off, that "money" "invested" in equities will evaporate as the bubble pops. Hard to say what course the money-printers will take after this one. But most likely, more of the same.

Yes, but perhaps that's an incomplete thought. The QE "money" also goes into bank balances to prop up overvalued assets (e.g., the large numbers of essentially abandoned properties that are still being carried at full value), and for currency exchanges to prop up other systems like the Euro. Continue the thinking.

The total quantity of global assets is about the same as it was 7 years ago. Yet the total amount of "money" is, what... twice what it was (or more?). If the system was fully transparent that should create gross inflation, and the central banks have declared that they are actually trying to create inflation and yet the velocity of money is declining and the inflation that we do see is sporadic and limited. What does that mean?

The price of energy is falling, which means that demand is down - globally. What does that mean?

The ability of the US economy to recover with speed is (arguably) at an all time low, due to massive government regulation that has become near-fascism, where the government is controlling industry indirectly. Ability of small business to contribute to recovery / expansion is more significantly impeded by out-of-control regulation than ever. What does this mean?

Government assistance (funded by borrowing) is at an all-time high, dwarfing even that of the Great Depression. We are in the third generation of an entitlement mentality where increasing numbers of people have no idea what it means to work for a living or hold to their word. What does that mean?

It has been proven that there is a mainstream media that is generally not capable of independent thought, which is pushing a pro-government progressive agenda, and which is clearly working on keeping the masses passivated with the belief that things are good and getting better, despite the factual evidence to the contrary. What does that mean?

Despite MSM trumpeting a recovering economy and low unemployment, the number of US workers is at a multi-decade low (arguably an all-time low if you correct for the difference in society, given that few women worked outside the home >50 years ago) and both total savings and net income of citizens is in decline. What does that mean?

Support of the USD as a mechanism of trade based on oil appears to be breaking down, and non-USD trade zones and agreements seem to be popping up. What does that mean?

Despite weakening US financial and industrial status and nearly unlimited money printing with no fiscal discipline (precious little discipline of any type at all) , the US still has (for now) the most powerful and most capable military in the world. That type of strength cannot be ignored, as printing money without a means to back it up truly has no meaning. Printing money with a military like that of the US does change the perceptions of the buyers. So at least In the moment global investors seem to be willing to flock to the USD as a "best of the worst" choice. What does this all mean?

Think about what things might come next, in what order, brought about by what possible means, and to what results.

I'm not pushing a definitive answer, but I am pushing critical thinking.

[beauanderos]

This market bubble is solely fueled by the fed's QE programs. That money has to go somewhere, so it goes into equities. Asset prices increased due to all the counterfeit money injected into the system. When/If the spigot is finally turned off, that "money" "invested" in equities will evaporate as the bubble pops. Hard to say what course the money-printers will take after this one. But most likely, more of the same.

Partially true, and that's a good point that you make. But also, risk appetite has been stimulated by ZIRP and now NIRP programs... if you can't make money on banking deposits (or are losing ground to inflation with CD's) ... or soon to come, are actually being penalized for parking large amounts of cash in the banks... then what choice do you have but to play equities? Since greater than 99% of people with foolish thought processes (or those scared by manufactured volatility) wouldn't consider stacking silver or gold, or if so, nothing more than a mere fraction of what they might were these forces not in play?

We are very close to systemic collapse, perhaps induced by the black swan of oil financing junk bonds and the derivatives exposure they represent. When the BIG BANK counter-parties that have "insured" this risk (this is 16% of the junk bond market) feel the onus of coughing up half a trillion dollars to BIG OIL... ummm.... well.... can anyone say

Dominoes?



I just hope that by the time that event approaches (don't wait til it arrives) you will have plundered your bank accounts of most of your savings, because if you don't, surely the banks (bail-in's, anyone?) will.

"It's Money in the Bank" now means something entirely different than it did when we were growing up

[68Camaro]

As fast as the world is printing bills perhaps this will even be DOW 20,000 or 25,000 before this all goes to crap.

But what goes up must come back down, especially when it is based solely on plastic and cellulose.

The only question is when, both to the peak and the next major valley.

Be careful out there, especially you all dabbling in paper.

Hard to believe this was two years ago already. Given Trump's agenda I believe he will print money as fast or faster than Obama (though hopefully put to better use), and we might now yet see Dow 20K or higher (in inflated dollars).

[beauanderos]

wouldn't be surprised to see 20,000 before the inauguration.

[Recyclersteve]

Dow just hit 19,000 today. You might want to change the title of this thread.

[68Camaro]

Yep, noticed that. 18,000+ is still accurate. If it holds 19,000 on an uptrend I'll update it.

[68Camaro]

Art Laffer predicts today DOW 20K to 25K on Stuart Varney. He an always optimistic person and he didn't indicate that a crash might follow (which is what I believe).

[68Camaro]

Bump for title update

[hobo finds]

Crazy! How long will this go?

[sparechange]

Bologna Principle---not being sure of what something is made of.
CAUTION: Package may be defective and cause ruin.