Trump and money printing

[68Camaro]

No matter where you put your vote in the election, I think most of us would agree that djt has a tremendous uphill climb to resolve the critical issues of jobs, healthcare, economy, immigration, war on radical Islamist terrorism, and overall national defense. Not to mention the many secondary (for now) longer term issues like education and entitlements.

It seems clear to me that to retain the goodwill of those who elected him as well as to gain the goodwill of those who didn't, that his administration will have to create radically fast progress on a number of issues, most of which will require funding that the US doesn't have. Even if eventual reform of over-regulation and taxes does stimulate new job growth, we're talking 6 months to 3 years before even the first signs of progress (and that is optimistic).

I think he is going to have to continue with major deficit spending for a couple of years, at least. Maybe at a level even greater than obama (if congress will allow him that).

My conclusion: continuing big spending (though arguably less wasteful that pure entitlements), leading to eventual higher inflation. PMs will go up.

[highroller4321]

I agree that short term 1-2 years PM's will be going up. I don't know if we will see crazy high though.

I am hopeful that in the 3-4 years the revenue coming up from the big spending will help eliminate some of that debt.


That or he will walk us through bankruptcy as a nation.

[daviscfad]

I still think PMs are going to sink to early 2000 levels

[68Camaro]

I still think PMs are going to sink to early 2000 levels

Ok. Why? When and for how long?

[daviscfad]

Probably biggest reason is because everyone is saying there going up.. last time I saw that i lost 16 dollars an ounce. I dont have when other than after trump is in office, I dont know how long... I think the dollar will be stronger than its been and we will just see a different demographic

[johnbrickner]

Probably biggest reason is because everyone is saying there going up.. last time I saw that i lost 16 dollars an ounce. I dont have when other than after trump is in office, I dont know how long... I think the dollar will be stronger than its been and we will just see a different demographic

I get it. And even though deflation (with subsequent decrease in PM prices) is absolutely unacceptable to our based on debt economy, I have to give the possibility that we will be unable to stop it a chance. Or why I am not ALL IN with PMs. Plus I was wrong on Brexit and The Donald. My understanding is the last time (Great Depression) we had gang busters deflation PM mining stocks were king as well as cash to buy things up cheap. So I consider myself diversified in these areas while my investment (conventional) advisor considers me over weighted. Perhaps just plain nuts. If I am, I'm in good company here at RC!

Hummm, The Donald could walk us thru a national bankruptcy causing a massive deflation or drop in prices/value. Would he give himself and his cronies the opportunity to buy up on pennies to the dollar if he did? That would be the kind of power grab I'd expect. I mean, he's at the pinnacle of political power and all that is left is the financial power. I trust no one, and certainly no president. Imagine all the possibilities then watch to see if any start to pan out. It's the only way to stay in front of the curve and survive.

[68Camaro]

Wrong on Brexit, wrong on Trump, NOT all in on PMs. Time to go all in on PMs!

[highroller4321]

Wrong on Brexit, wrong on Trump, NOT all in on PMs. Time to go all in on PMs!

The question is if they can keep the over inflation "under raps" like they have in the past. Inflation has been growing at a higher rate per year, but it seems less and less sheeple realize it. They somehow just come up to the conclusion that the big companies are just charging more to make more.

[Treetop]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nTd2ZAX_tc

This is the mindset of his chief strategist.

It will be interesting to see what they try to do. Trump has suggested he wants to shrink government through attrition. No new hires and moving people around. He has talked about forcing various agencies to do the same things with less money, and before anyone scoffs remember often private industry can do this and still find a profit. He also talked of getting rid of red tape and lowering taxes, which could spur new growth. We also have often ignored things like the potential for pot legalization which lowered crime, and usage, as well as enforcement costs of it being illegal plus raised taxes. Even sending just the criminal illegals home if we can keep them out is 2-3m people that cost our system alot per year per person. I highly doubt that will cost as much as some claim.

No idea if things like this are enough. If it was enough our big issues then perhaps become how in the heck to we make SS, medicaid and medicare sustainable. Of course he might not have to face that in 4-8 years.

In any event we are much better off with someone in there atleast trying to address these issues even if he fails then we would be with people who would solely make them worse. I wouldnt assume that if they felt bankruptcy was the only or best option that it was just to find wealth for himself or friends personally. We are at the end of the road in many ways. Our current path is in no way sustainable or even salvageable in its current form. We might be able to re organize so we dont fall flat on our face though. If anyone is expecting to rely on SS, medicaid, and medicare imo you are deluding yourself though. I dont think even an economic miracle can save all three of those.

[neilgin1]

Hummm, The Donald could walk us thru a national bankruptcy causing a massive deflation or drop in prices/value. Would he give himself and his cronies the opportunity to buy up on pennies to the dollar if he did? That would be the kind of power grab I'd expect. I mean, he's at the pinnacle of political power and all that is left is the financial power. I trust no one, and certainly no president. Imagine all the possibilities then watch to see if any start to pan out. It's the only way to stay in front of the curve and survive.

Dear pal Johnny B,
you nailed various aspects of this "endless onion" (definition; "endless onion", meaning you peel back layer after layer, after layer, and we are nowhere NEAR the "truth")......I took the liberty of bold facing your writings that I feel are seminal;

1. "The Donald could walk us thru a national bankruptcy "...its been the business MO of President elect Trump, for decades to avail himself of BK laws, which was why he didn't want to release tax returns, as he (rightfully) wrote off the almost 1 billion dollar hickey(loss) in the mid 90's his various business endeavors endured. Probably his calculation was that the American "voter" MIGHT construe a billion dollar loss as a sort of incompetency....a personal "shaming". However I believe his concerns on THAT matter were ill founded, as we all, have endured losses, anytime one makes a business, investment, or trading ventures, puts funds at risk, there is ALWAYS the possibility of loss, and the tax code takes that into account. (in 2002, while front spreading crude oil, I got killed, but, I sure did take that multi-year write off)

but a NATIONAL bankruptcy?...though there might not be a choice, it would NOT be a good thing, imho.

2."the opportunity to buy up on pennies to the dollar if he did?"....THAT is the whole "bite"...right there!...consider the fortunes of old or new BIG MONEY, meaning why would you want to pay , say, 90 cents on the dollar for assets, that you could buy for 10-20 cents on the dollar? the most "efficient" way to crater assets is a depression (obviously) and the way to do that, is if President elect Trump made good on his promise of a 45% trade tariff on imported Chinese products, which would ignite a global trade war, the LAST thing a very shaky national and global economy would want.
What gives me the right to write that? History.
Popular opinion is that the Oct 1929 stock market crash was the primary cause for the 1930's depression. no, it was the Smoot-Hawley Trade Tariff Act of 1930, that set in motion a global trade crash.
allow me to quote from the wiki entry, I will pin up:

J. P. Morgan's chief executive Thomas W. Lamont said he "almost went down on [his] knees to beg Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot tariff".
Hoover opposed the bill and called it "vicious, extortionate, and obnoxious" because he felt it would undermine the commitment he had pledged to international cooperation. However, in spite of his opposition, Hoover yielded to influence from his own party and business leaders and signed the bill. Hoover's fears were well founded. Canada and other countries raised their own tariffs in retaliation after the bill had become law........................... U.S. imports decreased 66% from $4.4 billion (1929) to $1.5 billion (1933), and exports decreased 61% from $5.4 billion to $2.1 billion. GNP fell from $103.1 billion in 1929 to $75.8 billion in 1931 and bottomed out at $55.6 billion in 1933. Imports from Europe decreased from a 1929 high of $1.3 billion to just $390 million during 1932, while U.S. exports to Europe decreased from $2.3 billion in 1929 to $784 million in 1932. Overall, world trade decreased by some 66% between 1929 and 1934

the numbers say everything...here's the link, so ya'll can read it, and see if you see what I see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2% ... Tariff_Act

I believe that folks think that the "global elite" (big money, old or new) is a sort of monolith, but in reality, I believe, there are various "tribes" of "big money", which can operate in concert, or they will not.
the most publicized of these "elite" is George Soros, and I know he is a singled out (for good reason)...but he isn't the ONLY one. That said, I want to post a RARE "60 Minutes" piece on Soros, that was aired circa 99-2000. Its half puff piece, half truth, you just have to "read between the lines".....ie, notice the countries he "helps" back then, and look at their state NOW, and look who also appears with Soros. This was filmed 16+ years ago! (I could do a psychological/theological deconstruct on Soros, but whats the point, except to say, he is NOT the only lever puller)


3. "I trust no one, and certainly no president."......Johnny, that is a very wise default setting to have. It's a bit sad that our fellow countrymen, seem to think that a post WW2 President can "make things better", when the modern Presidency is really just the lead actor in an elaborately constructed "reality show", where the lead meme, is that your vote in the ballot box can effect any REAL change, its just kabuki theater...ballot box?...the sad reality is the voting booth has changed into the "slave suggestion box".

I am just hoping/praying, that from this second until Inauguration Day, the deep state does not let loose some "black swan", and after that, the future, at best, is very murky....pray hard, love hard, n.

[68Camaro]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nTd2ZAX_tc

This is the mindset of his chief strategist. ...

Thanks for the video. Here in Orlando too - sorry I missed him. Didn't even know who he was until this past summer. He seems to know what's going on. Though (I have to say, and no disrespect, because none of us would want to have the job of fixing this mess) he appears as uncertain as any of us as to whether or not this is even fixable. "If we come out of this crisis..." and "it's going to take us 20 years to get out of this".

[neilgin1]

No matter where you put your vote in the election, I think most of us would agree that djt has a tremendous uphill climb to resolve the critical issues of jobs, healthcare, economy, immigration, war on radical Islamist terrorism, and overall national defense. Not to mention the many secondary (for now) longer term issues like education and entitlements.

My conclusion: continuing big spending (though arguably less wasteful that pure entitlements), leading to eventual higher inflation. PMs will go up.

68,
very good of you to post this.

you know that old saw?....."Pride proceeds the fall" ....as I see it, that is the fate of President elect Trump. The poor man has such a giant ego, puffed full of pride, and when you marry the fact that half of the country "hates" the other half and vice versa, with a man SO covetous of POWER, actually believing in that meme, "Making America Great Again".....oh my brother, I hear a creaking sound, and that is, the gates of hell creaking open. I write that NOT to speak ill of the President-elect, because ...to me, the "choice" presented this year, Clinton v. Trump, is akin to being asked, "pick your fate, do you want to be thrown into a lake of lava, OR, would you like to be beachside, with a 50 meter tsunami wave racing in?

and like a dear spouse gone astray, someone you love with your whole heart, now gone wrong, the pain and heartache is even MORE acute. Such is the way I feel about our beloved country, and you come to a point, where you realize, "i am powerless to make it right", except in the circle around me...that's all we can do now.....much respect, n.

[Recyclersteve]

Wrong on Brexit, wrong on Trump, NOT all in on PMs. Time to go all in on PMs!

There is another thing that lots of people (the vast majority) were wrong on- and that was the results of the OPEC meeting. Almost nobody thought there would be a compromise. So that is three pretty big things this year that most everyone has gotten wrong. If the Feds don't raise interest rates in December, that will be a fourth thing!

RE: the comment above about going all in on PM's... If you truly go all in on a lot of things (PM's, the U.S. dollar or any other currency, stocks, real estate, collectable cars, etc.),- you will be in pain with even a 10-15% pullback. Witness all the people on this site who buy silver at $19 and complain when it goes to $16- the more verbose they are, the more I feel that they are likely all in or close to it. Think back to the stock market in 2008-09 and residential real estate when it was collapsing. Those who had extra reserves to step in and buy something really cheap (still not being all in) and hold for a few years did very, very well- as they often do.

Of course there is always the exception- those who bought residential real estate in inner city Cleveland, Detroit, Gary, IN and St. Louis (I've been to all four a number of times) may not have done so well. I'm sure there are exceptions out there, but i think you know what I mean.

I can't speak for everyone, but I know myself and my wife pretty well. If I was all in on anything, she'd pester the hell out of me and I'd be a nervous Nellie (even without the pestering and if I lived alone). So I'd probably panic and sell with about a 15-25% loss and then scold myself as the investment doubled in the next few years.

Now I need to sell everything and amass a hoard of Lava Lamps and Pet Rocks. I hear they're making a comeback! (jk)

[68Camaro]

My comment was tongue in cheek. The OPEC "deal" will fall apart.

[johnbrickner]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nTd2ZAX_tc

This is the mindset of his chief strategist. <snip>

Zac, thanks for the vid. still watching it then wondered how long ago and who his audience was. Speech given shortly after the Liberty Restoration Foundation was founded in 2011 and according to Corp. Wiki is no longer active. Makes me wonder why? Especially since I had never heard of them 'til now.

[68Camaro]

Just found this research company, which does post some of its work for free.

Myrmikan Research chronicles the collapse of the current, global credit bubble – the largest and broadest in history – analyzing current events from the perspective of Austrian economics and placing them in historical context.

http://www.myrmikan.com/port/

See their latest free article, 11/25. They agree with me that Trump will be flooding the market with credit, and eventually the dollar will collapse because it must (even if it rises first).

Trump’s cunning should not be underestimated, but whatever the answers to these questions, the dollar is not strong. It will collapse, and the only question is when and
how. Once the short squeeze on dollars burns itself out—and who knows how long that might take, and what will be left standing—then the Nixon dynamic may begin,
with rising deficits driving higher nominal rates, destroying the Fed’s balance sheet, sending gold into the stratosphere, absent draconian capital controls, for which our
democracy is ill prepared. For gold investors, the key is to survive until that inflection point, which will likely arrive with little warning.

[johnbrickner]

<snip>
I believe that folks think that the "global elite" (big money, old or new) is a sort of monolith, but in reality, I believe, there are various "tribes" of "big money", which can operate in concert, or they will not.
the most publicized of these "elite" is George Soros, and I know he is a singled out (for good reason)...but he isn't the ONLY one. That said, I want to post a RARE "60 Minutes" piece on Soros, that was aired circa 99-2000. Its half puff piece, half truth, you just have to "read between the lines".....ie, notice the countries he "helps" back then, and look at their state NOW, and look who also appears with Soros. This was filmed 16+ years ago! (I could do a psychological/theological deconstruct on Soros, but whats the point, except to say, he is NOT the only lever puller)

Now this was good. Best quote from it is "Soros is like Trump but, without the humility". I would be interested in the deconstruct process you take in addition to the results.

3. "I trust no one, and certainly no president."......Johnny, that is a very wise default setting to have. <snip> when the modern Presidency is really just the lead actor in an elaborately constructed "reality show", where the lead meme, is that your vote in the ballot box can effect any REAL change, its just kabuki theater...ballot box?...the sad reality is the voting booth has changed into the "slave suggestion box".

I am just hoping/praying, that from this second until Inauguration Day, the deep state does not let loose some "black swan", and after that, the future, at best, is very murky....pray hard, love hard, n.

Thank you for the validation, Neil. Coming from you, it means a lot. And as always, I appreciate the view from your eyes.

Brick

[johnbrickner]

Nice info Rich. Thanks for sharing this group with us. Bookmarked.

[Treetop]

I dont think Trump is much like soros at all actually. Soros crashes currencies for profit. He backs dozens of organizations to sway public opinion on such issues as open borders, black lives matter, and making anything he opposes look "racist". All types of other things. He wants a global government if you look at the outline of his actions. Politically he is the polar opposite of trump on many issues. Im not aware of trump doing anything of the sort even with different issues.

[Shazbot57]

I dont think Trump is much like soros at all actually. Soros crashes currencies for profit. He backs dozens of organizations to sway public opinion on such issues as open borders, black lives matter, and making anything he opposes look "racist". All types of other things. He wants a global government if you look at the outline of his actions. Politically he is the polar opposite of trump on many issues. Im not aware of trump doing anything of the sort even with different issues.

Agreed! Regarding earlier posts on whether PM's are going up or down: I buy PM's as insurance for all possibilities. If they go to 2000 price levels I will just back up the truck and load up. If they go way up, I'll reassess at that time (as I'm sure we all will be reassessing things). And if PM's stay in this price range, I'll stay put, and buy occasionally on the dips! Keep on stacking! The 4- B's!

[Changechecker]

4-B's ? Elaborate please.

I have been reviewing stats. Going back to 2000 when silver was cheap. Republicans took the presidency, Bill Clinton and the Democrats had just finished eight years, prices of silver were stable but increasing.
9/11 happened and the Republicans got their war. Congress approved defect spending and the budget exploded. Silver values (along with everything) began to rise. In 2008, they paused briefly, 2009 they began to increase again and only recently have begun to reverse.
When Trump begins his term and start "investing" in infrastructure wouldn't it reason that silver will begin to rise again like before. He seems to be putting neo cons in place. I'm thinking that the Republicans will pull out their playbook again and create a national event giving them reason to increase military spending as well as infrastructure programs and once again silver, gold and commodity will begin their ascent once again. It may take a little while to enact, however, if the market crashes as it tends to after a power change then I think we could see these events happen in next few years. Trump will want these sooner rather than later in his term if he wants a two term presidency. Thoughts?

[Sanford02]

4-B's ? Elaborate please.

Bullion, Beans, Bullets......Bibles?

[Changechecker]

Thanks.