by Treetop » Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:25 pm
I say the left is dead IF.... the if is a huge one. If Trump draws in the growing "independents" the left is dead. On paper there are more democrats then republicans, no doubt there. They failed to get minorities out in numbers of past elections. They also failed to convince the middle of the road people, of which trump got just enough. If Trump does what I expect him to there is a solid chance imo we does convince the many in the middle and that is where the real trend is. Every cycle more and more people align with the middle not the democrats or republicans. He can also convince significant portion of minority groups the left abandoned him if things line up well, which would be a game changer. Another big thing is also whether or not he actually stops illegal immigration.
Everything is in flux atm, and while I wouldnt say the left got a deathblow, if Trump DOES lead as a populist which despite what many are saying now we still have strong indication he will the left could certainly take a deathblow. imo. The future of the left and right in this country depends on who convince the moderates/independents to join them in greater numbers. Obama failed to convince many minority groups the left has their corner they still rely on the idea the republicans definitely do not so if Trump for instance inspires greater numbers of them to see right leaning values are for all americans??? Jobs are better then handouts? He could easily win a significant section of them, that fruit is ripe for the picking if, and its a big if things go in our favor even just a few years.
As to the idea mentioned above by another poster about nothing getting done for 4 years, that might still be a boon to trump personally. If mainline republicans fight against whatever changes he tries to make to "drain the swamp" for instance Trump could easily convince more of the middle people he was what he claimed he was which would ensure another 4 years. Sure part of why he won was the left picked such a horrible candidate but Trump wasnt loved outside of his core support either. Few believe he is what he says he is. However if he shows he mostly IS what he said he was, he will almost certainly take 4 more years. Like I said the future isnt right or left as much as which side convinces the middle to align with them. Thus far the left seems to think the nation is ready to follow them further left if they just brand it correctly and I think they got that dead wrong. the core leftys sure, that is true overall though many left leaning people just want a more honest version that works of what lefty mindsets we already have. The moderates where the real numbers are trending are further left then many on the right might like but they are not the socialists the left wants to warp us into either by any stretch.
I find it interesting how many are saying Trumps cabinet picks show he is not going to work at many of his key campaign goals. Or because his goalposts shifted a bit on things. anyone who follows politics past others opinions expected this even if they still thought Trump would push for his goals. There is no way to drain the swamp without getting the swamp in your corner. I never did expect him to be able to push everything he was talking about as far as he had campaigned on, he isnt a dictator we have checks and balances and most of those doing those checks and balances are exactly the ones he needs to shift if he even tries what he outlined. I personally still think trump is exactly what he always said he was, and is just a wealthy blowhard who does in fact want a better future and did give up a better lifestyle to try to help his nation in the ways he feels are best. Not my ideal but considering the alternative he came just in time to give us a chance. I dont think there is any chance hes vaguely as bad as some of his detractors believe, but he might not be as good as I hope, or enough to ensure better values are solidified into our political spectrum going forward. He might though. I still see all the signs, subtle and otherwise I was hoping to see at this point.
Politically theres still a chance for a "perfect storm" imo. What I mean by that is the left relies heavily on keeping people on the reservation. Especially minorities. Obama put major cracks in that mindset for many. That imo is why the left tried so hard to label anything related to trump racist. What if he doesnt lead in a way that supports that and actually seems to care for middle america as I expect? It could indeed be a deathblow to the left both among moderates and minorities. I know many here think Trump might move republicans a bit left, and he might on a few issues but the socialist left versus socially conservative right are BOTH going to fail imo anyway. Those are the extremes of each party, and while many of you might align with that, the bigger fight imo is socialist versus free enterprise and self determination. In the socialist versus socially conservative fight the right WILL loose long term. There wont even be pockets of the nation to live socially conservative if we take the fight in that direction. imo. If the right embraces the middle however and the fight is socialist versus free enterprise and self determination the right will decimate the left even more decisively then the other avenue I described and there will remain pockets to be socially conservative. The middle is more left socially then many on the right prefer, BUT they are FAR from the socialists running the left who want government to answer EVERYTHING.
So back to my opening line... IF trump is 80% plus what I think he is, the left is indeed likely dead until they stop being socialists and embrace the middle. This is even more true if Trump inspires minorities and he might. While many in this nation are socially conservative the core of the nation is not enough politically for it to triumph on its own. If the right had insisted on going that route it would have had the death the left envisioned. However while they have slightly better numbers the nation is not socialist at its core either. So imo the right saved itself by picking a guy who has a shot at inspiring the middle. If the right follows onto the populist bandwagon fully the left will indeed fall imo or continue to. Obviously the supreme court is heavily influential as well, and the right just secured that as well for more then a generation. a huge win by itself even if Trump is a total sham.
LOL I know my post was long and rambling but many over lapping issues here as I see it. I definitely agree with 68s premise that the left isnt understanding what happened. I see two major outcomes. IF trump is truly the populist he portrayed himself as, and stances he had back into the 80s suggest strongly he is then he is about to re define modern politics and the left will bleed out until they catch up to it. OR if he is a sham, then deeper apathy will envelope the electorate left and right and we will again be back to socialists versus socially conservative a fight the left has the advantage on. Atleast at first. Once people realize fully we will not sustain our current lifestyles on that or even close then we will be back into a more apathetic version of the cycle we are currently in as I see it.
Now longer term of course we still have all the myriad of issues that make me a stacker of physical silver. Those issues could blow up at any point. All the more reason Im excited about trump winning. When we pick up the pieces of this ponzi scheme I want free enterprise and self determination to rule the day rather then socialism. Trump winning gave us a chance at that, and I personally dont think the other republicans winning did if any of them had won in the way Trump does. Trump is far from my ideal but he has certain characteristics and came at the right time to alter that course as I see it. Sure I want a WAY smaller government then Trump (or gary johnson for that matter) offered but as I see it the real fight, the real battle lines are self determination and free or mostly free enterprise versus socialism.
IF Trump is what I think he is, the left is in trouble and doesnt get it yet, and he will take 8 years and heck his daughter could easily be the first female president.