Supply vs. Demand

[Larkin]

Is it just me or does it appear (mainly on ebay) that the supply of Lincoln copper cents has really increased? So much so lately that selling price of copper cents has not increased as much as the 5 month increase in copper prices. Is it possible that demand is just not there for these copper cents regardless of the spot copper price? Even if copper went to $5.00-$6.00 per pound, these cents might still be selling for less than 2x face. Maybe I'm off base here but this is my observation. Would love to have some feedback on this.

[VWBEAMER]

I think eBay price are too high. I realize that there are a lot of fees that go with selling there, but I don't see paying more than 2X times face for pennies at current melt prices. Personally I will not pay more than 1.6, and have decided to sort my own now.

Anyway, back to my point, even if the melt ban was lifted, recyclers would not pay melt value. My guess is you would get 1.7-1.8 times face. So the melt value is not the true value of the coin anyway. Also nickels become the better investment if you have obtain pennies at over 2 times face. You have the same gain in metal value, and less downside, actually no down side because you can get nickels at facevalue.

In addition you have to consider that people still get copper pennies for a penny everyday in pocket change. The fact that the coins are easliy obtainable at facevalue is going to lower the price. People are only going to pay a premium because your pennies are presorted. They can go to the bank and get pennies at face and sort them. So really they are just paying you to sort the pennies. So as long as the pennies are still in circulation, the melt value going up is not going to raise the price that much.

In the end, pennies are speculation, and people are not going to speculate is less there is a good upside.

[ramy98]

Is it just me or does it appear (mainly on ebay) that the supply of Lincoln copper cents has really increased? So much so lately that selling price of copper cents has not increased as much as the 5 month increase in copper prices. Is it possible that demand is just not there for these copper cents regardless of the spot copper price? Even if copper went to $5.00-$6.00 per pound, these cents might still be selling for less than 2x face. Maybe I'm off base here but this is my observation. Would love to have some feedback on this.

I agree, there is very little demand for these copper cents as they are still widely available in circulation.. Heck Im routinely getting 36-40% CU.
Once they start disappearing then we will start seeing people paying large premiums for them just like whats happening for silver dimes..

[Finder]

Its only a matter of time before they become scarce enough in circulation to bring our price up, I'm sure there are much more people taking copper out
than just us. There are less CU pennies in circulation each day. No new ones are being made.

The problem is there are billions still out there.

I bet some people saving silver coins in the early 60s got impatient too.

Of course, I dont want to hold my pennies for 50 years to get the payback. I will be dead by then.

When copper pennies are rare in circulation we will see our value jump, and surely rising copper prices will help to some degree.

I'm going to be patient for 5 or 10 years, then sell for whatever they go for then.

[palmvtree]

I think Ebay is also serving as an advertising venue for those browsing through and seeing multiple auctions selling circulated pennies above face value. It is creating more and more penny sorters everyday by showing that there is a market to get 1.6 X (plus) for your investment if you go to the bank and work a little (and have a little fun along the way). The bank I have gone to religiously for the last 5 years has always handed me coins without hesitation and the last few trips have told me that they think "I was on to something" because more and more people are coming in now and asking for rolls of pennies. The secret is out gentlemen! Heck the last time I was there the bank was out of penny boxes and I had to buy more boxes of nickels from them! The horror! It won't be long until we start to see single digit copper penny percentage posts possibly (say that 10 times fast) later this year!
On a side note, for now I think the storage facilities that ship the boxes of pennies to the banks still have a surplus of pennies because the bank sold me a box stamped from 2008 a few weeks ago. Finally sorted the other night and almost had double the usual coppers in that box than I have seen with boxes from 2011.

[Common Cents]

Just wait until the average Joe really starts to feel inflation. Once the majority of the population has figured out that commodities offer the only hope of saving the purchasing power of your assets, the massive run on copper will materialize. The demand for alternatives to fiat currency just isn't widespread enough to justify people buying copper pennies. Eventually it will be, and by then many people will be priced out of the gold and silver market, if there's any to be had at all. That is when the true demand will be revealed for the copper penny, and that's when we're going to start seeing massive drops in the amount of copper in circulation.

Be patient and have a long-term outlook, and you'll be rewarded handsomely for your foresight.

[pennypicker]

Just wait until the average Joe really starts to feel inflation. Once the majority of the population has figured out that commodities offer the only hope of saving the purchasing power of your assets, the massive run on copper will materialize. The demand for alternatives to fiat currency just isn't widespread enough to justify people buying copper pennies. Eventually it will be, and by then many people will be priced out of the gold and silver market, if there's any to be had at all. That is when the true demand will be revealed for the copper penny, and that's when we're going to start seeing massive drops in the amount of copper in circulation.

Be patient and have a long-term outlook, and you'll be rewarded handsomely for your foresight.

Well said!

[Pennybug]

Just wait until the average Joe really starts to feel inflation. Once the majority of the population has figured out that commodities offer the only hope of saving the purchasing power of your assets, the massive run on copper will materialize. The demand for alternatives to fiat currency just isn't widespread enough to justify people buying copper pennies. Eventually it will be, and by then many people will be priced out of the gold and silver market, if there's any to be had at all. That is when the true demand will be revealed for the copper penny, and that's when we're going to start seeing massive drops in the amount of copper in circulation.

Be patient and have a long-term outlook, and you'll be rewarded handsomely for your foresight.

Well said!

This is EXACTLY why I started sorting this past year!

I'm betting that a .50 roll of coppers will be 2015's (or sooner) new $5 currency (assuming that the world keeps on its current track). If there is an upside to the current world situation and a turn around in the economy... then I'm betting that the .50 copper roll will be worth about $5 by 2030 or so just for numismatic/melt value. If things get worse... well... who knows... but I'll be glad I have them! Just speculation...

[hejira11]

Just wait until the average Joe really starts to feel inflation. Once the majority of the population has figured out that commodities offer the only hope of saving the purchasing power of your assets, the massive run on copper will materialize. The demand for alternatives to fiat currency just isn't widespread enough to justify people buying copper pennies. Eventually it will be, and by then many people will be priced out of the gold and silver market, if there's any to be had at all. That is when the true demand will be revealed for the copper penny, and that's when we're going to start seeing massive drops in the amount of copper in circulation.

Be patient and have a long-term outlook, and you'll be rewarded handsomely for your foresight.

Thanks!

[kiwiman]

i think it is because it is flooded with sellers and because of so many still in circulation.

[VWBEAMER]

One thing I think a higher melt value does do, and that is motivate more people to hoard and those that are already hoarding to hoard more at a faster rate.

So an extended time with high melt values will quicken the copper coins removal from circulation and thus ultimately raise the price of the coin.

Just what I'm thinking.

[cesariojpn]

Is it just me or does it appear (mainly on ebay) that the supply of Lincoln copper cents has really increased? So much so lately that selling price of copper cents has not increased as much as the 5 month increase in copper prices. Is it possible that demand is just not there for these copper cents regardless of the spot copper price? Even if copper went to $5.00-$6.00 per pound, these cents might still be selling for less than 2x face. Maybe I'm off base here but this is my observation. Would love to have some feedback on this.

Easy observation. Fast Cash.

Whether it be a death of someone famous, a phenomenon that "wakes" peoples minds to the value of one item or thing, or even the prices of something going up, people will flock to that particular trend and try to profit off of it as much as possible. Some think to commit into the long term, but in the end, it has to crash and burn somewhat and them stabilize back to "normal."

[TXBullion]

Just remember the alternative. Your copper pennies sell at melt. You realize your few tons were not enough. Banks are charing 10 cents per roll because everyone is trying to get them. No one will take your loose coins unless you pay 10% in fees. Are you sure you want your cents selling at 3x? Maybe a few here do , but Im guessing a lot of you no. You think you do but I dont really think you do.....

You are in a window right now, use it in the best way you think possible

[VWBEAMER]

You and me are thinking the same, we ain't got all we want yet...

Just remember the alternative. Your copper pennies sell at melt. You realize your few tons were not enough. Banks are charing 10 cents per roll because everyone is trying to get them. No one will take your loose coins unless you pay 10% in fees. Are you sure you want your cents selling at 3x? Maybe a few here do , but Im guessing a lot of you no. You think you do but I dont really think you do.....

You are in a window right now, use it in the best way you think possible