$50 Silver

[Contradiction]

You guys and ladies probably know this, but I just saw that a few years ago silver was selling for almost $50. Is it ever going to do that again? It seems that if silver can do that again, it would be a better investment than gold.

Some of my friends can't believe I'm interested in coins now. Of course, in almost all the games they play they are always bragging to me about some kind of metal armor they got for their character. Pretend stuff, you know. Man, go walk your dog or something.

[Recyclersteve]

Silver came close to $50 in 2011, but never quite got there late on that late Sunday night in Spring, 2011. There was another time when silver did actually trade ABOVE $50 and that was January, 1980 (briefly).

Will it ever get there again? EVER is a long, long time, so I'd say yes. It could be a long time before it happens because the paper market for silver (silver futures- a complicated subject you can research on the internet- way beyond the scope of this posting) is approximately 100 times the size of the physical market for silver. There are people with deep pockets who would love to see silver in the doldrums for a long time.

You need to consider inflation as well. I've heard that to match the $50 high for silver in 1980, silver would need to go to $130 or higher in today's dollars.

All that said, what does it take for a meaningful move in silver? If a major company (think Apple suppliers or Ford) says they are having a hard time getting enough silver to continue making their products, that could potentially cause a sharp spike in the price. Guessing how far the move will go and the timing of the move is EXTREMELY difficult. If someone gets it right, I'd say they were probably lucky, not a genius. I say this as someone who worked in the brokerage industry for almost 20 years and has done literally thousands of trades of stocks and precious metals over the years.

There will be times when you might hear a story about a wealthy person taking a position in gold or silver. Don't get too excited. They are telling you what they want to tell you and they might be trying to manipulate you into doing something that benefits them, not you. Example: Without naming names a VERY WEALTHY INVESTOR was on CNBC telling the world after the 2001 terrorist attacks how much he liked stocks in the U.S. He started naming specific names and gave about 4-5 of them. I was able to see his account live as he was on TV, and he was simultaneously betting on all those stocks going DOWN, not up!!! I wanted to stand up and shout "LIAR!", but there was nothing I could do about it. That certainly got me to become much more careful about listening to the so-called experts.

I've got other examples of this as well, but this should be enough for now.

To change the subject a bit, I will answer a question you haven't asked. If you asked me which metal (precious or base) was most likely to double the soonest, I'd guess it would be nickel. That's just a guess on my part. The nickel market isn't watched nearly as closely as gold, silver or even copper. If nickel doubled right now, there are lots of people who would say "Wow, I had no idea." And then it might be too late to buy it. The type of nickel that I personally like is Canadian (not U.S.) nickels from 1981 and before as they are 99.9% nickel. The U.S. nickels are only 25% nickel, so it would take way too much space to have a significant investment in U.S. nickels.

[Kurr]

Dont forget COMEX is a fractional reserve system and a few parties have already been caught and proven to be manipulating the silver market, with just a few million dollar fine. Until this is remedied, its an uphill battle.

[Contradiction]

Thanks to both Kurr and Steve. That's a lot for me to ponder.

[Contradiction]

To change the subject a bit, I will answer a question you haven't asked. If you asked me which metal (precious or base) was most likely to double the soonest, I'd guess it would be nickel. That's just a guess on my part. The nickel market isn't watched nearly as closely as gold, silver or even copper. If nickel doubled right now, there are lots of people who would say "Wow, I had no idea." And then it might be too late to buy it. The type of nickel that I personally like is Canadian (not U.S.) nickels from 1981 and before as they are 99.9% nickel. The U.S. nickels are only 25% nickel, so it would take way too much space to have a significant investment in U.S. nickels.

Hey Mr. Steve,
I got two lots of 100 Canadian nickels on ebay. Did I pay too much?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Lot-of-100-Old ... 1cad4e979d

I hope the mailman doesn't complain about the weight.

[scyther]

Hopefully some day. It could be another ten or twenty (or thirty) years, though.

[Recyclersteve]

To change the subject a bit, I will answer a question you haven't asked. If you asked me which metal (precious or base) was most likely to double the soonest, I'd guess it would be nickel. That's just a guess on my part. The nickel market isn't watched nearly as closely as gold, silver or even copper. If nickel doubled right now, there are lots of people who would say "Wow, I had no idea." And then it might be too late to buy it. The type of nickel that I personally like is Canadian (not U.S.) nickels from 1981 and before as they are 99.9% nickel. The U.S. nickels are only 25% nickel, so it would take way too much space to have a significant investment in U.S. nickels.

Hey Mr. Steve,
I got two lots of 100 Canadian nickels on ebay. Did I pay too much?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Lot-of-100-Old ... 1cad4e979d

I hope the mailman doesn't complain about the weight.

Currently the nickels are worth 6.8 cents each per kitcometals.com. 200 are worth $13.60. If you feel like you overpaid, just think of it as tuition you are paying toward learning more about a new skill.In the future I’d try to buy if you can from a local dealer to save on shipping. Even though your shipping was supposedly free, it was built into the price you paid. And shipping for 200 nickels (at least within the U.S.) shouldn’t cost too much.Also, learn about the sales tax rules in your area. Some states charge sales tax and others don’t.

[Contradiction]

To change the subject a bit, I will answer a question you haven't asked. If you asked me which metal (precious or base) was most likely to double the soonest, I'd guess it would be nickel. That's just a guess on my part. The nickel market isn't watched nearly as closely as gold, silver or even copper. If nickel doubled right now, there are lots of people who would say "Wow, I had no idea." And then it might be too late to buy it. The type of nickel that I personally like is Canadian (not U.S.) nickels from 1981 and before as they are 99.9% nickel. The U.S. nickels are only 25% nickel, so it would take way too much space to have a significant investment in U.S. nickels.

Hey Mr. Steve,
I got two lots of 100 Canadian nickels on ebay. Did I pay too much?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Lot-of-100-Old ... 1cad4e979d

I hope the mailman doesn't complain about the weight.

Currently the nickels are worth 6.8 cents each per kitcometals.com. 200 are worth $13.60. If you feel like you overpaid, just think of it as tuition you are paying toward learning more about a new skill.In the future I’d try to buy if you can from a local dealer to save on shipping. Even though your shipping was supposedly free, it was built into the price you paid. And shipping for 200 nickels (at least within the U.S.) shouldn’t cost too much.Also, learn about the sales tax rules in your area. Some states charge sales tax and others don’t.

Thanks again. Your guidance is helpful.

[Contradiction]

Today all the metals except lead went down on Kitco. My dad prevents lead prices from falling because he owns the bullet cabinet at Walmart. Well, not the cabinet, just the stuff in it.

Nickel really nosedived. My Canadian nickel education just got more expensive, but I don't mind. I got a few ounces of silver too. I like the feel of shiny. It was funny when I showed an elderly man at church. He grabbed it out of my hand (didn't know he could move that quick) and seemed to enjoy the weight like he was reminiscing his younger days.

[Recyclersteve]

Today all the metals except lead went down on Kitco. My dad prevents lead prices from falling because he owns the bullet cabinet at Walmart. Well, not the cabinet, just the stuff in it.

Nickel really nosedived. My Canadian nickel education just got more expensive, but I don't mind. I got a few ounces of silver too. I like the feel of shiny. It was funny when I showed an elderly man at church. He grabbed it out of my hand (didn't know he could move that quick) and seemed to enjoy the weight like he was reminiscing his younger days.

Think of this as a very valuable lesson. I remember hearing about some ancient Chinese curse relative to young people who start investing and have superb success on their very first purchase. The lesson was that they got cocky and felt smarter than everyone else and end up getting kicked in the butt later. Think about it this way- if you bought your very first lottery ticket and made $10,000 on it, it would be VERY DIFFICULT to realize that it was just luck. People normally rationalize that they have a system of some kind and continue to bet. And, over the long-term, the vast majority lose.

So two lessons here are:

1) Expect volatility- it can come out of nowhere for the strangest of reasons.
2) If the overall thesis is good, be prepared to buy more at a lower price to reduce your average cost. There are some stocks I bought in the stock market that went down sharply. I typically bought more and was prepared to hold on- for several years if necessary. I've gotten out of a bunch of them with profits, but it took some time. If I had gotten panicky at the bottom, I'd have lost many thousands of dollars. Don't get me wrong- there are times when it is NOT good to double down (Examples: You own stock in a company likely to go bankrupt, you are retirement age and already own too much of the stock so you shouldn't be buying more no matter how much of a bargain it is.). I don't see how nickel would go "bankrupt". There is perhaps a slim chance that someone could discover that another cheaper metal does just as good of a job at a certain application as nickel does. That could reduce the demand (and the price for nickel). People start silly rumors about stuff like this all the time. Don't quiver the first time you hear a rumor.

Also, I am looking at the price of commodities on the SeekingAlpha site and see that nickel is up 11.5% over the past month. The number two commodity, coffee, is up just 0.9%. Coal is up 0.2%- all others are negative.

I'm assuming you are still very young, in reasonable health, and have lots of life left to live. Good luck in your investing future.

[Contradiction]

Yes, I'm young and in good health. I can touch my toes and kick things higher than my height. How long I live is up to God.

I am very thankful for the investment advice, Mr. Steve. Instead of paying for music or apps I am now hooked on metal. The important thing is to maintain my interest in owning real money. I think if I budget well, I can sort more pennies AND have enough for a few ounces of silver every month.

[Recyclersteve]

Sounds like a nice plan.

[InfleXion]

I'm always bullish on silver, but more often than not that sentiment is invalidated. Nevertheless the underlying reasons for stacking haven't changed, but as long as it continues to be mined as a byproduct there's no skin in the game for miners who can sell silver at any price without taking a tangible loss. It would take mining closures I think to really push the price higher, which there have been some of, but not enough obviously. I started watching the price around $4-5, wasn't comfortable enough to buy until it crashed from $21 to $8 in 2008. Even this price today which seems low compared to recent years still seems like a good investment over the course if you picked your spots well enough. I used to watch the price all the time, but now I don't really care. Along the way I started measuring wealth in ounces, and now it's not about what I can get for my stack. It's about what I can get for a currency that's on borrowed time, and what I'm getting is peace of mind that because I hold it, I actually own it.

[Contradiction]

Measure wealth in ounces
Measure wealth in ounces
Measure wealth in ounces

I've got to remember that.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Yes, I'm young and in good health. I can touch my toes and kick things higher than my height. How long I live is up to God.

I am very thankful for the investment advice, Mr. Steve. Instead of paying for music or apps I am now hooked on metal. The important thing is to maintain my interest in owning real money. I think if I budget well, I can sort more pennies AND have enough for a few ounces of silver every month.

This is part of the reason why the US is doomed. So many nonsensical distractions out there today. Too much technology can be a bad thing. I've noticed that very few young people can critically think. TPTB love it, they have more control over people that way.

Stick with your plan... you'll do well.

[Recyclersteve]

I've noticed that very few young people can critically think. TPTB love it, they have more control over people that way.

Don't know if I'd call this critical thinking, but it is amazing how many cashiers (mostly young) freak out when I give them $20.62 for a bill that is, say, $8.62. If I include a half dollar with what I'm giving them, they will likely need to get someone to help them. Once in a while, I'd even get the response "We don't take foreign coins."

If I was doing a job interview for a cashier, this would definitely be part of the interview.

[TXSTARFIRE]

I go to the gas station and get 12 gallons of gas and give the cashier a 10 cent per gallon coupon and out comes the calculator!

[SilverBandit22]

I go to the gas station and get 12 gallons of gas and give the cashier a 10 cent per gallon coupon and out comes the calculator!

10 cent per gallon coupon? Dang, I could use one of those.

[Contradiction]

Now, Kitco says that silver is $15.51. That's what I meant...$15...not $50. LOL. I guess I should buy more of the stuff to make my stack have a lower average cost.

[Recyclersteve]

Now, Kitco says that silver is $15.51. That's what I meant...$15...not $50. LOL. I guess I should buy more of the stuff to make my stack have a lower average cost.

I don't see anything wrong with dollar cost averaging on a long-term investment as long as you don't bet all you've got on any single one investment. Many on this site have silver in various forms plus copper cents. Some, such as me, also have nickel and gold. To be better diversified down the road, you should have cash available for rainy day expenses, real estate and stocks. When you get much older, perhaps preferred stocks and/or bonds as well.

Keep in mind that there are probably many millions of people who have automatic deductions from their regular paychecks to invest in some type of mutual fund. That is another form of dollar cost averaging.

If at some point you had a million dollars, but it was all in coins, I'd consider that to be (for most people) a mistake. Occasionally, someone can get away with it. That someone might be a dealer who frequently rotates his inventory, has a well established clientele, and has everything insured.

That said, I am not an investment advisor. You will likely need to pay a fee to talk with one of them.

[Contradiction]

Now, Kitco says that silver is $15.51. That's what I meant...$15...not $50. LOL. I guess I should buy more of the stuff to make my stack have a lower average cost.

I don't see anything wrong with dollar cost averaging on a long-term investment as long as you don't bet all you've got on any single one investment. Many on this site have silver in various forms plus copper cents. Some, such as me, also have nickel and gold. To be better diversified down the road, you should have cash available for rainy day expenses, real estate and stocks. When you get much older, perhaps preferred stocks and/or bonds as well.

Keep in mind that there are probably many millions of people who have automatic deductions from their regular paychecks to invest in some type of mutual fund. That is another form of dollar cost averaging.

If at some point you had a million dollars, but it was all in coins, I'd consider that to be (for most people) a mistake. Occasionally, someone can get away with it. That someone might be a dealer who frequently rotates his inventory, has a well established clientele, and has everything insured.

That said, I am not an investment advisor. You will likely need to pay a fee to talk with one of them.

I appreciate you taking me under your arm, Mr. Steve. I look at how my parents have struggled financially over the years and I want to do better. I'm pretty skeptical about stocks right now plus where I work doesn't have a system for us to invest. I think we're too small for stockbrokers to mess with us. Since the rent I pay to eat and sleep at home is cheaper than having my own place, I am able to hold on to some cash. Trying to be smart how I use it.

[everything]

If your young find a cheap index fund or funds, and stay with it, stay with it. If you have control over it you can even change it over to a money market or FDIC interest bearing during a recession, then pile back in after equities bottom out or fall into the trench, then ride it back up, rinse/repeat. Get one even if your not young. Add a little every month, and when the stock market is down add a little more. Roth. You can save cash and cost average into that just as well as anything. Live smart, live cheap, invest in yourself, and your future, career especially. Learn health, and how to source good organic foods grown in good dirt, this will pay you back in spades. Keep your nose clean, pick your friends carefully. Learn the art of persuasion. Floss.

Metals are cyclical, as in ten year cycles, long patient cycles. Economic conditions can and will swing commodities up and down, as does speculation and herding. Yes, silver is now a commodity. These cycles play out slow. For instance I was at my LCS today, the place was full of metal and lots of numismatics, more than usual. When silver eagles are going into the lowest junk silver bucket silver is getting looser and easy to come by. But silver prices are low, yes but people need cash, to buy food and make interest payments, we had a big, big investment buildup in silver comparable to the hunt years, maybe bigger, now people are slowly letting them go. My personal guess for .999 silver right now is add some if you really have too but wait until people are really strapped and it's being dumped, economic conditions go in cycles too. I tend to save more cash during good times while my friends are buying and spending and drinking the koolaid.

Learn numismatics, and keep cash at hand/bank for what your into, and know, especially know. All my numismatics have done great compared to my .999 stuff, every last one of them. I do like modern coins, but I also like all 1980's hunt period bars and rounds, they are a tough investment to play, but I enjoy having them. I think silver bars with serial numbers on them are pretty cool. At my favorite LCS, all the old bars go into the junk silver bucket, I pick them, it's like a bad habit.

I'm into scrapping metal, it's more of a hobby, I live in the city, it's everywhere, everywhere. I found a box of free copper wiring at a garage sale today, I'll add it to the heap, and one day I'll bring it in for a little lunch money. Having an old junky truck helps and makes it easier to pick up stuff. Garage sales, and estate sales, sometimes I find gold necklaces and silver rings, and small hoards can be bought and gone over to find numismatic coins that are worth something.

Don't even think silver might go back to $50 ever again. But, build a balanced stack if you want. I keep my yearly boyish purchases to a maximum 100 oz. silver and 1 oz. gold. Gold is a great option to silver.

[Recyclersteve]

Now, Kitco says that silver is $15.51. That's what I meant...$15...not $50. LOL. I guess I should buy more of the stuff to make my stack have a lower average cost.

I don't see anything wrong with dollar cost averaging on a long-term investment as long as you don't bet all you've got on any single one investment. Many on this site have silver in various forms plus copper cents. Some, such as me, also have nickel and gold. To be better diversified down the road, you should have cash available for rainy day expenses, real estate and stocks. When you get much older, perhaps preferred stocks and/or bonds as well.

Keep in mind that there are probably many millions of people who have automatic deductions from their regular paychecks to invest in some type of mutual fund. That is another form of dollar cost averaging.

If at some point you had a million dollars, but it was all in coins, I'd consider that to be (for most people) a mistake. Occasionally, someone can get away with it. That someone might be a dealer who frequently rotates his inventory, has a well established clientele, and has everything insured.

That said, I am not an investment advisor. You will likely need to pay a fee to talk with one of them.

I appreciate you taking me under your arm, Mr. Steve. I look at how my parents have struggled financially over the years and I want to do better. I'm pretty skeptical about stocks right now plus where I work doesn't have a system for us to invest. I think we're too small for stockbrokers to mess with us. Since the rent I pay to eat and sleep at home is cheaper than having my own place, I am able to hold on to some cash. Trying to be smart how I use it.

I know it may take a while to do this, but when you can save up $5,000 for the stock market Schwab has a robotic investing account that you might look at. There could be others elsewhere that have even lower minimums. The thing about the robot accounts is that you don't have to pay a person to manage it for you and you don't really have to monitor it yourself. It is a "set it and forget it" type account which is great for someone who wants to be invested in the stock market, but doesn't want to spend a lot of time learning about the market, trading, etc. I mention Schwab because that is who I deal with. They aren't necessarily the holy grail of the brokerage business and, of course, things are always changing when you have competition leapfrogging each other to get new business.

[Recyclersteve]

I'm into scrapping metal, it's more of a hobby, I live in the city, it's everywhere, everywhere.

Hey Everything (and Contradiction):

I'm a scrapper too. Contradiction, you've got to have a place to put stuff, and, fortunately I have a good sized backyard with a corner that is pretty well hidden so neighbors won't see my junk and freak out about it. I enjoy scrapping for several reasons:

1) When I need an extra $50 or so, I can make a trip to the scrapyard. I drive an SUV so no room for major appliances.
2) It is good for the environment.
3) It helps to keep someone employed (the person at the junk yard) who likely would have a hard time finding work elsewhere.
4) I get outdoors and get a decent workout.
5) I find stuff that is too good to scrap and take it to Goodwill or even use it at my home. My daughter is going to college next month and needs furniture for the home she will live in. I found a five-drawer dresser, desk, very nice chair and bed frame just by driving around. This easily saved my daughter (or us) perhaps $500 or more.

Contradiction, don't let the fact that you live with your parents discourage you too much. You might try crushing and saving aluminum cans, but I'd keep them outdoors because they can at times attract ants. If I was just starting and had limited space, I'd get a nice pair of wire snippers and keep them with me all the time. Also you should have a pair of gloves and eye protection. I've already found a couple pairs of goggles. Also, you can get a cheap neodymium magnet for 50 cents to $1 plus freight. Magnets help you determine what is steel (cheap and not worth saving unless you have lots of room) vs. copper (best), brass (also very good), and aluminum or stainless steel (still worth recycling).

Scrapping does have a learning curve. Fortunately, it appears there are many thousands of videos on Youtube to help.

I do remember one guy on this site who used the money from his scrapping to buy Alcoa (aluminum company) stock. Pretty neat idea. You could also consider buying some copper, silver or nickel with the proceeds you receive.

Good luck.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I know it may take a while to do this, but when you can save up $5,000 for the stock market Schwab has a robotic investing account that you might look at. There could be others elsewhere that have even lower minimums. The thing about the robot accounts is that you don't have to pay a person to manage it for you and you don't really have to monitor it yourself. It is a "set it and forget it" type account which is great for someone who wants to be invested in the stock market, but doesn't want to spend a lot of time learning about the market, trading, etc. I mention Schwab because that is who I deal with. They aren't necessarily the holy grail of the brokerage business and, of course, things are always changing when you have competition leapfrogging each other to get new business.

80-90% of retail traders lose money. Stock market is a bubble right now, so even the passive "set and forget it" investors are going to get hammered sooner or later. Gold and silver are the only things not in a bubble, in fact they are extremely undervalued. PMs are practically hated now. Look at the drop off in activity on this forum. That is a contrary indicator. The time to load up on PMs is NOW.