Thogey wrote:Question.
Why does a high GSR, mean that silver is cheap.
IdahoCopper wrote:90:1 makes me also wonder if a HELOC on the home equity to buy silver is a reasonable gambling debt.
Many HELOCs start with 6 months a 2.99%, then move up to 5.25 or 5.50% Many have interest only payments for the first 10 years.
$30,000 borrowed to control silver bought at $15.35 is 1,954 oz.
Three percent on $30,000 is $450 for the first 6 months, so $75 per month. After that, at 5.25% the monthly interest payment is $131.25/mo. So in two years, the cost of the gamble is $2,812.50, or 9.375% of the $30,000.
Considering the buy/sell spread, If silver goes up 15-18% in two years, its a break-even. So by Jun of 2021, it would need to be $17.65 to $18.11 per oz.
If it reaches a "new high" in 2020 or 2021, that would be what? $60-$65 per oz? Roughly a 4x increase, so sell the bullion and get ~$120,000. Sell 1/4 of the silver and pay off the HELOC, and you keep 1,465 oz of bullion, or sell more to resolve any other overhanging "problems" you may have.
Yeah, there is risk. But is seems like it may be reasonable and manageable. When you convert USD to Ag, its like any other currency exchange. You still have the value in your hand (minus fees).
Changechecker wrote:IdahoCopper wrote:90:1 makes me also wonder if a HELOC on the home equity to buy silver is a reasonable gambling debt.
Many HELOCs start with 6 months a 2.99%, then move up to 5.25 or 5.50% Many have interest only payments for the first 10 years.
$30,000 borrowed to control silver bought at $15.35 is 1,954 oz.
Three percent on $30,000 is $450 for the first 6 months, so $75 per month. After that, at 5.25% the monthly interest payment is $131.25/mo. So in two years, the cost of the gamble is $2,812.50, or 9.375% of the $30,000.
Considering the buy/sell spread, If silver goes up 15-18% in two years, its a break-even. So by Jun of 2021, it would need to be $17.65 to $18.11 per oz.
If it reaches a "new high" in 2020 or 2021, that would be what? $60-$65 per oz? Roughly a 4x increase, so sell the bullion and get ~$120,000. Sell 1/4 of the silver and pay off the HELOC, and you keep 1,465 oz of bullion, or sell more to resolve any other overhanging "problems" you may have.
Yeah, there is risk. But is seems like it may be reasonable and manageable. When you convert USD to Ag, its like any other currency exchange. You still have the value in your hand (minus fees).
Had the chance to do this in 2003 when silver was cheap. Heloc available and I dropped the ball. I regret that. I say go for it with what ever amount you are comfortable with. Your upside is too good. You can always sell some if you get behind with a payment.
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:At 91:1, silver is CHEAP AS F*CK! Just buy it and put it away.
Thogey wrote:Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:At 91:1, silver is CHEAP AS F*CK! Just buy it and put it away.
What does his mean then? Is there something about the ratio that is unbreakable? Could it mean that gold is too expensive? Or are you suggesting it is just a good time to sell gold an use your proceeds to buy silver?
MH's chart indicates to me a random relationship. How does the demand for gold affect the demand for silver.
BTW F*ck is not cheap
Thogey wrote:I remember everyone screaming bloody murder about JFFs analysis.
HE was right. Silver bugs were spectacularly wrong. Silver demand is what it is. The price is what it is worth.
I like silver, but it is just metal. Most of humanity does not find it that important.
Thogey wrote:I remember everyone screaming bloody murder about JFFs analysis.
HE was right. Silver bugs were spectacularly wrong. Silver demand is what it is. The price is what it is worth.
...
silver is always going to go higher, unless civilization itself goes away.
Thogey wrote:Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:At 91:1, silver is CHEAP AS F*CK! Just buy it and put it away.
What does his mean then? Is there something about the ratio that is unbreakable? Could it mean that gold is too expensive? Or are you suggesting it is just a good time to sell gold an use your proceeds to buy silver?
MH's chart indicates to me a random relationship. How does the demand for gold affect the demand for silver.
BTW F*ck is not cheap
68Camaro wrote: I don't want to re-hash the whole JFF thing, but there was quite a diversity of opinion on all sides.
Thogey wrote:
The price of dog $hit is below the cost of production, so do we buy up dog $hit?
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