Your Predictions for the Post COVID-19 World

[theo]

Okay. I will give it another try. I PREDICT that SARS Cov2 will stick with us well into Fall as we watch Marxist infomercials masquerading as sporting events. Most states will allow mail in voting in November allowing a Democrat (not Biden) to win the election. I few weeks later (just before Thanksgiving) a life-saving vaccine will be rolled out and reported cases and deaths will begin to decrease by Christmas. By late February the virus will be declared contained giving us a new holiday replacing the archaic and racist Presidents Day. It will commemorate our victory over Covid (VOC Day?). And by this time next year, we will be living a technological quasi-marxist state where statues of courageous protesters and front line heros will pop up in public parks. There will of course be whispers about how the virus was used to over-turn the election and ultimately our Republic. However Twitter, Facebook and Google will happily assist the Government in catching and quietly canceling anybody caught perpetuating these hateful conspiracy theories.

However, our new leaders will not be up to the challenges that face our nation. The U.S. will embarrassingly lose a mini-war to China, losing a fleet carrier in the process. This will give the Chinese a free hand to establish a hegemony over the Pacific rim and greatly increase its influence in Africa and Europe leading. This will in turn lead to the U.S. dollar finally losing reserve currency status and a partial economic collapse. There will be food/gas shortages and rumors of another pandemic, that will turn out to be a mutation of SARS Cov 2. Some conspiracy theorists will claim that the original Corona virus never really went away. The 2024 election will bring another sweeping Democratic win. The same conspiracy theorists will claim that the outcome was pre-ordained by our remote electronic voting system (REVS). Another year of increased suppression, more disease and persistent shortages will lead to the second U.S. Civil War.

It will start as a series of small disturbances in Idaho and western Oregon as farmers and ranchers refuse mandatory food deliveries in the Fall of 2025. It will slowly spread to the mid-west, Texas and then the South. The tide will turn when it is discovered that the US Government was actively working with Chinese security services to suppress the Rebellion. The rebels or new Patriots "New Pats" as they will come to be known, will receive unexpected aid from a group of dissidents with in Google, Twitter and the U.S. intelligence agencies. Later units of the U.S. Military will start to join the New Pat cause. Despite this help it will take another 3 years and several million deaths for the New Pats to win a Pyrrhic victory in 2030.

The map of the U.S. and North America will look very different after the War. The Chinese will take advantage of the chaos by first providing aid and then asserting control over much of the West Coast, including San Fransisco, Portland, Seattle and Vancouver B.C. The Mexican Drug cartels will take control of much of the Southern border, including San Diego. Only Texas will be able to successfully defend itself at great cost. Many of the large cities in the Mid-west, South and East will be heavily damaged and de-populated during the second Civil War or CWII as historians will later call it. Cities like Boston, New York and Philadelphia will be also be de-populated and controlled by criminal gangs. It will take another 10 years to completely subdue these areas.

The new Government will be Nationalistic and perhaps a little fascist in nature. It will be generally accepted that the multi-culturalism of the late 20th and early 21st century caused our nation to become weak and divided. Our culture and leadership will then lurch to the other extreme. Ideas and lifestyles considered to be subversive will not be tolerated. Unity and patriotism and will be demanded of all citizens. We will not begin to re-emerge as a world power to challenge China until least the 2050s. More liberal ideas will start to take hold in the late 2060s.

Sorry about the length. I started writing and could not stop. : )

[Recyclersteve]

Theo, are you related to Debbie Downer by any chance?

[Lemon Thrower]

Without getting political, I'll reiterate that Covid will blow over after the election, which is fortunate because we've never been able to produce a vaccine for a corona virus.

But there will be lasting effects of the pandemic:
- less trust in government
- growing gulf between rich and poor fueling populist movements. so far we have only seen the Soros funded communism-light populism, but more will emerge.
- people are growing increasingly comfortable working remote, this has ramifications for real estate and employment
- further growth of the gig, temp, and hustle economies.
- dress codes are going down the drain, not a good time to own a haberdashery or dry cleaners.
- online retail is going to accelerate
- huge money printing that will support future increase in bullion and bitcoin prices

Yesterday I went to the mall to buy my high school aged son some clothes. Everything was on sale. Brand new jeans for $15. I got him 3 collared shirts, a t-shirt, 3 pairs of shorts, and 2 hoodies for less than $150 including tax. That would have cost $300-450 back when I was in school. This may be temporary because they didn't expect the pandemic, but those discounts stick in peoples minds. Next year, when they try to get $45 or even $30 for those jeans, people are going to be like "nah, I'll wait."


I think these retailers already paid for the clothes, and they are discounting to compete against each other.

[Recyclersteve]

Without getting political, I'll reiterate that Covid will blow over after the election, which is fortunate because we've never been able to produce a vaccine for a corona virus.

But there will be lasting effects of the pandemic:

- dress codes are going down the drain, not a good time to own a haberdashery or dry cleaners.

Excellent point.

[theo]

I'm very intrigued by Strauss and Howe's "The Fourth Turning." Although I don't think the cycles are as precise as they claim; it is clear to me that every 4 or 5 generations society has to cross through a river of sh**.

[Lemon Thrower]

People trotted out Strauss adn Howe's Fourth Turning 12 years ago during the Second Great Depression. But it wasn't a good fit then.

I guess you can say we now have to sort of social unrest they were expectinig, but 11-12 years late.

I think a lot of authors come across their book and work too hard to make it fit. I agree that their concepts - cycles, demographics, etc. - have value generally, but not really as predictors. Reminds me of Nostradamous where people really squint to make the predictions fit the outcome, and there is no predictive value.

[Recyclersteve]

People trotted out Strauss adn Howe's Fourth Turning 12 years ago during the Second Great Depression. But it wasn't a good fit then.

I guess you can say we now have to sort of social unrest they were expectinig, but 11-12 years late.

I think a lot of authors come across their book and work too hard to make it fit. I agree that their concepts - cycles, demographics, etc. - have value generally, but not really as predictors. Reminds me of Nostradamous where people really squint to make the predictions fit the outcome, and there is no predictive value.

+1

[thecrazyone]

I personally am most worried about the kids. Our kids are seriously being affected by:

1. not being able to go anywhere
2. having to hear the horror stories from Mom and Dad
3. having contact with their friends only via online
4. checking out new things online that friends online are telling them to click on or read

It's a cluster.