Nobody wants US bonds

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Nobody wants US bonds

Postby thecrazyone » Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:57 pm

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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby 68Camaro » Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:32 pm

The sages of yesteryear predicted (10 or 20 or more years ago) that the day would come when they (the Fed) would need to sell but no one would buy, and it looks like we are almost there. QE to infinity. The Fed will be reduced to buying back their own notes with inflated dollars, and that is when the ugly spiral starts and at some point they are powerless to stop it short of a major reset (walking away from the debt, and / or a major war, and / or a dictatorship).
In the game of Woke, the goal posts can be moved at any moment, the penalties will apply retroactively and claims of fairness will always lose out to the perpetual right to claim offense.... Bret Stephens
The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it. George Orwell.
We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. Ayn Rand.
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby Recyclersteve » Wed Nov 29, 2023 12:46 am

Interesting article to me, and I'm no fixed income expert whatsoever. I'm a stock jockey...
Former stock broker w/ ~20 yrs. at one company. Spoke with 100k+ people and traded a lot (long, short, options, margin, extended hours, etc.).

NOTE: ANY stocks I discuss, no matter how compelling, carry risk- often
substantial. If not prepared to buy it multiple times in modest amounts without going overboard (assuming nothing really wrong with the company), you need to learn more about the market and managing risk. Also, please research covered calls (options) and selling short as well.
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:30 pm

I've been watching the numbers here https://www.usdebtclock.org grow for years, always thinking, It can't go on much longer. Yet here we are, all of us getting old and cranky. LOL!

Apparently, the US government will pay $945 billion in interest this year, 2024. Somebody is getting rich, but it shore ain't me. I'm thinking that someone else is going to be left holding US bonds when the music stops and find there aren't enough chairs.

Patience, y'all. It's going to be a fantastic implosion.
When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them... (Thomas Jefferson)
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby JerrySpringer » Tue Jul 02, 2024 11:36 pm

shinnosuke wrote:I've been watching the numbers here https://www.usdebtclock.org grow for years, always thinking, It can't go on much longer. Yet here we are, all of us getting old and cranky. LOL!

Apparently, the US government will pay $945 billion in interest this year, 2024. Somebody is getting rich, but it shore ain't me. I'm thinking that someone else is going to be left holding US bonds when the music stops and find there aren't enough chairs.

Patience, y'all. It's going to be a fantastic implosion.


The only solace is that the majority of the debt is owed to ourselves. Found this:

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/05/the-f ... -that-debt

The info is a year old but the key take home is the Federal Reserve holds a good chunk of the debt. Wonder if they could agree to getting paid back just the principal and forego interest payments right now :o
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby pmbug » Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:11 am

Japan is currently the largest foreign holder and they are being forced to sell to defend the Yen right now.
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby 68Camaro » Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:28 am

shinnosuke wrote:I've been watching the numbers here https://www.usdebtclock.org grow for years, always thinking, It can't go on much longer. Yet here we are, all of us getting old and cranky. LOL!

Apparently, the US government will pay $945 billion in interest this year, 2024. Somebody is getting rich, but it shore ain't me. I'm thinking that someone else is going to be left holding US bonds when the music stops and find there aren't enough chairs.

Patience, y'all. It's going to be a fantastic implosion.


10-12 years ago my mistake on this was similar to my failure to realize there is an actual deep state in US politics. There is an actual deep state in finance (and it could overlap the political deep state) that is willing to go to desperate lengths to keep the status quo alive. So you're right, it will continue until they can't figure out a way to sustain (or a large enough subset of them decide to bail first and save themselves), and then we will see an implosion like never before. It could blow this year, or 10 years from now, and we could even have a long slide into ruin before the final event.
In the game of Woke, the goal posts can be moved at any moment, the penalties will apply retroactively and claims of fairness will always lose out to the perpetual right to claim offense.... Bret Stephens
The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it. George Orwell.
We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. Ayn Rand.
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby shinnosuke » Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:33 pm

JerrySpringer wrote:
shinnosuke wrote:I've been watching the numbers here https://www.usdebtclock.org grow for years, always thinking, It can't go on much longer. Yet here we are, all of us getting old and cranky. LOL!

Apparently, the US government will pay $945 billion in interest this year, 2024. Somebody is getting rich, but it shore ain't me. I'm thinking that someone else is going to be left holding US bonds when the music stops and find there aren't enough chairs.

Patience, y'all. It's going to be a fantastic implosion.


The only solace is that the majority of the debt is owed to ourselves. Found this:

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/05/the-f ... -that-debt

The info is a year old but the key take home is the Federal Reserve holds a good chunk of the debt. Wonder if they could agree to getting paid back just the principal and forego interest payments right now :o


Well, since I don't consider the Fed Res to a part of "ourselves," it's not much solace to me. I'm paying taxes to cover their monetary treason. The interest will always be due as long as the money/currency is corrupt.
When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them... (Thomas Jefferson)
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby shinnosuke » Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:36 pm

pmbug wrote:Japan is currently the largest foreign holder and they are being forced to sell to defend the Yen right now.


And their defense is not doing so well. I'm going to Japan for the latter half of October and looking forward to buying at a discount. I always wondered if it would be the Yen or the Euro that would go first. Guess the Japanese are going to be the sacrificial lamb.
When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them... (Thomas Jefferson)
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Re: Nobody wants US bonds

Postby shinnosuke » Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:41 pm

68Camaro wrote:
shinnosuke wrote:I've been watching the numbers here https://www.usdebtclock.org grow for years, always thinking, It can't go on much longer. Yet here we are, all of us getting old and cranky. LOL!

Apparently, the US government will pay $945 billion in interest this year, 2024. Somebody is getting rich, but it shore ain't me. I'm thinking that someone else is going to be left holding US bonds when the music stops and find there aren't enough chairs.

Patience, y'all. It's going to be a fantastic implosion.


10-12 years ago my mistake on this was similar to my failure to realize there is an actual deep state in US politics. There is an actual deep state in finance (and it could overlap the political deep state) that is willing to go to desperate lengths to keep the status quo alive. So you're right, it will continue until they can't figure out a way to sustain (or a large enough subset of them decide to bail first and save themselves), and then we will see an implosion like never before. It could blow this year, or 10 years from now, and we could even have a long slide into ruin before the final event.


Agree on all points with my only addition to your comment being curiosity about what role the CBDC will have in our demise as a once-free nation. :thumbdown:
When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them... (Thomas Jefferson)
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