5 catalysts to a major crisis - 4 down, 1 to go

[68Camaro]

I'm something of a believer in cyclical human behavior. The subject of the article is the same Howe as is half of Strauss Howe Generational Theory, which this subject is related to. I had a longer intro but lost it when I timed out, so I'm not going to recreate it. I'm just going to suggest that you consider his points and plan accordingly if it makes sense to you. Pay attention to any "nullification" issue that results in one or more states with a show-down vs the federal government.

If that doesn't happen, we're looking at a financial crisis that sparks or contributes to a WWIII, as we had in the 30s/40s. Remember the smaller wars (Spanish Civil War, Japanese invasion of China, etc) that started in the 30s, prior to WWII? Now-a-days we've got Ukraine and the Middle East, with Taiwan on deck.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E ... nal_theory

Terrifyingly Plausible: Why You’re Wrong to Think Civil War Can’t Happen Here
Tyler O'Neil | September 02, 2024
@Tyler2ONeil

Tyler O'Neil is managing editor of The Daily Signal and the author of "Making Hate Pay: The Corruption of the Southern Poverty Law Center."

Demographer, historian, and author Neil Howe hasn’t just coined the term “Millennial,” he’s also predicted the future to an eerie degree—and he thinks America’s in for very rough seas ahead. He says a civil war in the U.S. is far more plausible than most people think, and he dismisses the reasons Americans often discount that possibility.

In 1997, he published a book with Bill Strauss, “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny.” In that book, he suggested five catalysts for a major crisis—and four of the five have already come to pass.

“One of our events was a crisis over the debt, which would issue forth in a new tea party movement,” Howe tells “The Daily Signal Podcast.” He calls it “just completely random that we happened to use that phrase,” which the tea party movement adopted in 2010.

“The other one was a WMD [weapon of mass destruction] attack on New York City,” Howe says, noting the eerie parallel with Sept. 11, 2001. “The other one was the [COVID-19] pandemic, and the fourth one was Russia invading a former Soviet republic,” such as Ukraine.

The final potential catalyst? “A nullification crisis, where one or more of the states would actually nullify federal regulation, which would lead to a new secession movement,” Howe says.

According to his generational theory, America should expect a major crisis about every 80-100 years, and we’re due for another “rendezvous with destiny” such as the Great Depression and World War II. He calls these periods “fourth turnings,” and they force society to create a new order in the civic “outer world” about 40 or 50 years after “awakenings” drive people inward, seeking order in their spiritual “inner worlds.”

Why a Civil War Is Likely

Howe notes that “our politics have taken on this kind of Manichaean style, where the red zone and blue zone are so mutually exclusive in their sense of themselves, their agenda for the nation’s future, that it hardly even matters who’s leading the party.” (“Manichaean” refers to the tendency to view one side as perfectly good and the other side as perfectly evil, and it traces back to a world religion that arose with the prophet Mani in the 200s A.D., which taught that the physical world is evil and the spiritual world is good.)

He cites Carl Becker, who wrote an essay in 1941, “The Dilemma of Modern Democracy.”

“When most of what you’re talking about is the width of sidewalks and the diameter of sewer pipes, just coordination issues, democracy works really well,” Howe says. “But when you’re talking about issues that virtually define who you are, it doesn’t work. He said no one is going to accede to a vote count that goes 51% against you.”

“You are not going to give up everything you believe in just because you came up three votes short,” he explains.

Howe says U.S. polarization reached similar levels in the 1770s, the 1850s, and the 1930s.

When The Daily Signal noted that American polarization doesn’t neatly fall along lines on a map like in the U.S. Civil War, Howe says the presence of blue cities in red states actually makes conflict more likely.

“One misconception people have is that civil wars require geographically separated places,” he notes. “This is not true, and take a look at the Spanish Civil War. That was a brutal, horrible war, and there was very little geographical contiguity about it. … It was like honeycombed. The civil war in China was the same way.”

Even in the U.S. Civil War, there were “civil wars within states,” especially in “border states.”

“And actually, your point about blue zone cities within red zone states or vice versa is a classic reason why civil wars get touched off, and why they are never resolved amicably,” Howe says.

Problems for World in U.S. Civil War

“There are two ways in which we enter this fourth turning very differently from earlier fourth turnings, which are worrying,” Howe says.

First, he notes, “government is so huge going into this fourth turning,” while most fourth turnings require government to ramp up in order to face existential threats.

Second, he notes “the size and global power of our military” make the U.S. a central player in world affairs, so a U.S. Civil War will have massive ramifications across the globe.

“If it requires our forces around the world to stand down for six months, the entire world will remake itself,” he says. “The entire world, for better or for worse, depends upon our presence to be what it is.”

Howe also notes that during a civil war, one side often asks for external help: “This is a rule through all civil wars.”

So, When Would Civil War Start?

The Daily Signal asked Howe why the “mini starter crises” of 9/11, the tea party movement, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war did not “catch fire” and ignite the massive existential crisis that defines a fourth turning.

“The survival of the country has to be at stake,” the author says.

“With regard to World War II, I think FDR made the case—it was very persuasive for the country—we did not want to be the only democracy left on earth,” he explains.

“This is the way incentives work,” Howe says. “You’ve got to feel everything’s on the line to push you to do something.”

Things have to come to a head in order to force people to come together and create a new order in society. How exactly that will happen is yet to be determined.

[Saabman]

Interesting read. Thanks, Rich.

[Lemon Thrower]

I have a different view.

Red and Blue are just 2 sides of the same uniparty coin. That's not to say its not real, and they are not different, but rather they ultimately serve the same function. Bigger government for this reason or bigger government for that reason.

There will be no civil war but they do want division and fear.

There will be no civil war because there is no need. The people who control the uniparty had a coup in 2001. They have slowly stopped hiding that coup.

One could argue that this was the second coup and the first coup is memorialized on the half dollar.

[68Camaro]

I have a different view.

Red and Blue are just 2 sides of the same uniparty coin. That's not to say its not real, and they are not different, but rather they ultimately serve the same function. Bigger government for this reason or bigger government for that reason.

There will be no civil war but they do want division and fear.

There will be no civil war because there is no need. The people who control the uniparty had a coup in 2001. They have slowly stopped hiding that coup.

One could argue that this was the second coup and the first coup is memorialized on the half dollar.

I understand your point about the established political parties, and agree that there has been a party of the deep state for decades that crosses party lines. But the parties are not what he's talking about. He's referring to the world views of the population, which are strongly divided into two camps that each would prefer that the other not exist, and would each prefer to live in a country without being subjected to the views of the other side.

[Recyclersteve]

Can someone break this down into 1-2 paragraphs written in simple English? I’m interested in the basic subject matter, but had a hard time really understanding what was being said.

[Lemon Thrower]

I have a different view.

Red and Blue are just 2 sides of the same uniparty coin. That's not to say its not real, and they are not different, but rather they ultimately serve the same function. Bigger government for this reason or bigger government for that reason.

There will be no civil war but they do want division and fear.

There will be no civil war because there is no need. The people who control the uniparty had a coup in 2001. They have slowly stopped hiding that coup.

One could argue that this was the second coup and the first coup is memorialized on the half dollar.

I understand your point about the established political parties, and agree that there has been a party of the deep state for decades that crosses party lines. But the parties are not what he's talking about. He's referring to the world views of the population, which are strongly divided into two camps that each would prefer that the other not exist, and would each prefer to live in a country without being subjected to the views of the other side.

In my estimation, the diametrically opposed views of the two camps is exactly what the PTB want.

It like when the US Army went into Afghanistan or Iraq. Was it a failure? A quagmire? It depends on your perspective. The PTB wanted an excuse to occupy those regions indefinitely and well mission accomplished!

Consider for a moment that all of the inefficiency and dysfunction is not an accident but by design.

[68Camaro]

One way to guarantee that there will be two sides that are absolutely opposed to each other is to cultivate and support a side that gathers together every possible illogical and/or proven to have failed economic, management, financial, business, education, military and security, foreign affairs, social, family, and moral policies and tout that collection as the only reasonable way to live, while taking over the major institutions that drive the society and influence opinion. I agree that there is a Power that is behind all that. TPTB are really just pawns in the hands of that Power.

[shinnosuke]

One way to guarantee that there will be two sides that are absolutely opposed to each other is to cultivate and support a side that gathers together every possible illogical and/or proven to have failed economic, management, financial, business, education, military and security, foreign affairs, social, family, and moral policies and tout that collection as the only reasonable way to live, while taking over the major institutions that drive the society and influence opinion. I agree that there is a Power that is behind all that. TPTB are really just pawns in the hands of that Power.

Well said, and Isaiah 14 mentions that Power.