how do you know if a commemorative will be in demand?

[97guns]

ive been getting into commems lately soley for the low premium or in my case non premium. ive been snagging them on ebay for $3-$4 under melt but for mostly common dates.

i see that the 2009 lincoln gets alot of attention on ebay and they go for aROUND $60 FOR A BUY IT NOW. i ended up biting on one last night and paid $51.50 for it, by far the most expensive commem ive bought. so the question is the lincoln coin a good one to pick up 10 or 20 pieces and what makes a modern commem desirable?

[inflationhawk]

Usually low mintage is what drives price on these. If there is an ultra high demand for a commemorative there is a chance the price premium will stay in tact. The 2001 Buffalo is a good example of that. Lincoln coins have always been popular so the premium may stay in tact on these. The other thing you have going for you is the increase in price for new issues from the Mint this year. I built up a collection of commems over the last year or two. I think they're worth a chance. Some of the higher mintage ones will likely never sell for much different than spot. Also, just to make sure you are aware, commems are not 1 ounce of silver, they are 90% silver and weigh less than 1 ounce so you are getting about .77 ounces of silver in each coin.

[Dvorak]

I've skipped through Eric Jordan's book on Modern Commems
http://www.amazon.com/Modern-Commemorative-Coins-Invest-Tomorrow/dp/1440212899

I still need to give it a more thorough reading. I think Key dates/mintage numbers are of utmost importance, but good/desirable designs help. That said, I think one of his pieces of advice is not to try to guess on any specific issue and instead collect the whole set. With silver skyrocketing, all of the numismatic premium on the non/semi-key coins is going to get swallowed up by the metal value. Not necessarily a bad thing for someone holding a lot of coins, but not the ideal way to invest (just buy bullion).

Rough example:
Assume the Lincolns are going for $50 and generic commems are $30 today. When silver hits $50, those Lincolns are still probably going to be around $50, but now the generics are nearing $40. Your investment in Lincolns did nothing for you gain-wise.

Another example is the 1982 George Washington commem half. Same 90% metal content as a circulated 1964 Kennedy, but much prettier and even has a proof version in a nice little box/capsule--but it goes for the same price or less. People do not know it is 90%. I love snagging these things on eBay for well below spot.

Again, I'm sill learning myself, so DYODD.

[97guns]

for the most part im buying for the bullion, snagging rounds between $25.50 and $28.50, last month i scored 90 of the washington halves for a little over $10 a pop. im hoping the premium on th abes will continue to be strong, i just picked up 4 ms69's for $51 a pop.