SILVER - WAS $31-$49, WAS $33-$43, NOW $44+

[DeanStockwell]

Looks like the PPT's fighting against silver today...wonder what will happen when the markets open.

[Country]

Markets do what would put the most people at a disadvantage. A meltup from here would surprise everyone, as many are positioning and planning for a sharp correction based on technical parameters. IMHO, the contrarian position is for a SILVER meltup to new all time highs.

[Pennysaved]

Guess you have to get rid of that $41 + now

[Jonflyfish]

Markets do what would put the most people at a disadvantage. A meltup from here would surprise everyone, as many are positioning and planning for a sharp correction based on technical parameters. IMHO, the contrarian position is for a SILVER meltup to new all time highs.

In the world of futures trading, it is a zero sum game. There is no identifiable bias that suggests that prices will go higher. If there was, it would have already done so.
Technical patterns can show anything you want. If you are looking for a reason to buy, there are current patterns to suggest that. If you are looking to sell, there are current patterns for that as well. Technical analysis is just like fundamental analysis in that regard. The problem with markets is that people always look for reasons to support their position or bias. This is how people get stung. They do not listen to the market. Instead, they try to force the issue. No amount of cheerleading, posting, link swapping or pulpit pounding will change the outcome. The future is ALWAYS unknowable. If you understand that, you can make a fortune

[Mossy]

There is no identifiable bias that suggests that prices will go higher.

Sounds a lot like the Roulette wheel. Vegas /loves/ people who think they can identify a pattern in where the ball lands. And the biggest fool I knew was a super genious who taught statistics. He was sure he could tell the future from past (random) behavior.

[Country]

The market has spoken. It looks we'll have to wait until later for higher ground. We'll see what opportunities develop over succeeding days. Good Luck...

[Neckro]

Good thing I didn't spend all my money on coins.

[68Camaro]

The big shorts are simply pounding it - their back is against the wall. I expected something like this sooner or later. Market will take its time, and find its balance. But the relentless direction over time will be up. The fundamentals dictate that. I don't expect it to reverse backward much more, but if it does I'll be back to buying as soon as I sort out what I've got to buy with.

[68Camaro]

BTW - when we hit the "exponential" rise time, there won't be time to react, and you'll know it's happening but won't be able to do anything about it. At that time, you'll either have PM, or you won't. So you'll sit there and watch, powerless (more or less) to do much of anything once it starts.

[Jonflyfish]

BTW - when we hit the "exponential" rise time, there won't be time to react, and you'll know it's happening but won't be able to do anything about it. At that time, you'll either have PM, or you won't. So you'll sit there and watch, powerless (more or less) to do much of anything once it starts.

I would use caution when imagining that the market will follow a path set in your mind. Exponential meltdowns can happen just as easily as exponential metups.
Either way, neither are required to happen. Markets do not follow anyone's crystal ball or palm readings.

[68Camaro]

BTW - when we hit the "exponential" rise time, there won't be time to react, and you'll know it's happening but won't be able to do anything about it. At that time, you'll either have PM, or you won't. So you'll sit there and watch, powerless (more or less) to do much of anything once it starts.

I would use caution when imagining that the market will follow a path set in your mind. Exponential meltdowns can happen just as easily as exponential metups.
Either way, neither are required to happen. Markets do not follow anyone's crystal ball or palm readings.

True. Also, your mileage may vary, don't operate in the bathtub, and any other caveats that might be applicable. Just pointing out to people that they need to have conviction about something, and if they believe in a certain scenario that they have to actually own silver at the time it happens in order to benefit from it.

[neilgin1]

you gotta hand it to Jon the Fly Fisher, balls of steel. You da man brother....but use condoms!!!

[IdahoCopper]

Going by today's chart, it looks like pretty good support at $40.

[shinnosuke]

So is this the correction some of us were waiting for? A drop from almost $42 to just above $40... About 5%. Anyone changing their buying habits based on this dip?

[theo]

Although we could be in for some volatility, I think the bias is higher as well. I wouldn't mind it stabilizing over the six months, but I don't think so. Here is my current miondset:

Reasons to sell/stop buying silver.
1. The Summer swoon for PMs is almost upon us. "Sell in May and go away!"

2. Technically speaking silver is a little head of itself. Its far above both its 50 day and 200 day moving averages.

3. (Warning conspiracy!) JPM and company have allowed silver to get ahead of itself, so that a massive concentrated short play will engineer $10+ sell off so as shake the faith of all but the "strongest hands." This comes from a belief I have the the TPTB will attempt to punish PM holders at some point. It would likely be a last gasp. (Think of the ending of Fatal Attraction, with JPM standing in for Glen Close.)

4. If the conservatives/Tea partiers in Congress are able to force dramatic cuts in spending (measured in trillions) and massive regulatory reform. Possible but highly unlikely.

5. QE2 ending in June.

Reasons to buy.
1. The persistant rumors of physical silver shortages at the COMEX.

2. Continued instability in the Middle East.

3. The European soveriegn debt crisis.

4. More problems in Japan, which leads to more Japanese selling of U.S. debt.

5. The state debt crisis.

6. QE3 beginning in July.

Fell free to add to either list.

[Treetop]

reasons to buy

continued and building calls for replacement of the dollar as the global reserve currency....

theres no major action to end our levels of spending or otherwise position ourselves for the world we actually live in. SSI, medicare, medicaid, bases covering the globe, homeland security and all the alphabet guys.... we would have to change our entire lifestyles to adapt to those lower spending limits. In short our leaders are not accountable nor do they have the gonads to answer real problems with real answers.

industrial demand for silver is expected to climb even with a stagnating economy.

food systems based entirely on oil, which are starting to slow production from salt build up.... let alone a 1000 related issues.

last but not least.... the international bankers have much of the world over economic barrels, its our turn. If you thought they would spare us, you werent paying attention....

[beauanderos]

So is this the correction some of us were waiting for? A drop from almost $42 to just above $40... About 5%. Anyone changing their buying habits based on this dip?

I'm not touching my core bullion, but studying my portfolio holdings I noticed that AGQ had only dropped 6% over a two-day period, yet the silver mining equities got hit alot harder. AG (First Majestic Silver) dropped 22.7%, EXK (Endeavour Silver) fell 15.22%, SVM fell 13.8%, AXU fell 13.1%, and MVG dropped 12%. Also, SLW fell about 10%... but it's already my second largest holding. So I used the opportunity to sell AGQ and use the proceeds to rebalance into the silver miners at "sale" prices. At other times, these same miners will outperform bullion, and if that happens they will be sold at a profit and reinvested back into AGQ. All done within a self-directed brokerage so no tax consequences. I'm using JFF's "tips" as timing clues as to when to examine my portfolio and rebalance. You don't have to be brilliant to outperform the market, you only need to acknowledge who the really smart operators are who understand the superior tools they have access to, and are willing to share their analysis (thanks Jonflyfish) and follow their lead. Can anyone pick the bottom of a correction? You don't need to, when it's acknowledged that you're enjoying a significant discount on equities you would be happy to own anyway. Long term... sizable solid core bullion position permanent hold, short term... paper trade equities for profit, periodically pull gains and buy more bullion on dips.
And Jon? Your tips are always welcome, but how about letting us know when you cover, as well as when you short? Why don't we start a Trader's and Trades section of the Forum where strategies, stock tips, and Market "coups" could be posted?

[68Camaro]

So is this the correction some of us were waiting for? A drop from almost $42 to just above $40... About 5%. Anyone changing their buying habits based on this dip?

Correction? There was a correction? Yep, it spiked up Sunday eve, but that was a blip of exuberance up that faded back to a baseline; doesn't really count as a correction, in my book. Right now we're in a new trading range between 40 and 41, which is higher than it was last week. It was cool to see it almost hit 42, but that was a blip. It'll do that again for real, soon, and stay there, then continue up.

[shinnosuke]

So is this the correction some of us were waiting for? A drop from almost $42 to just above $40... About 5%. Anyone changing their buying habits based on this dip?

Correction? There was a correction? Yep, it spiked up Sunday eve, but that was a blip of exuberance up that faded back to a baseline; doesn't really count as a correction, in my book. Right now we're in a new trading range between 40 and 41, which is higher than it was last week. It was cool to see it almost hit 42, but that was a blip. It'll do that again for real, soon, and stay there, then continue up.

Agree. For those of us long in AG, there was never really a chance to sell on that blip or experience the drop. It came and went too quickly. Nothing really changes for me. To the extent that the Mrs. will loosen the purse strings, I will buy some more no matter what the price is.

[justj2k78]

So is this the correction some of us were waiting for? A drop from almost $42 to just above $40... About 5%. Anyone changing their buying habits based on this dip?

Correction? There was a correction? Yep, it spiked up Sunday eve, but that was a blip of exuberance up that faded back to a baseline; doesn't really count as a correction, in my book. Right now we're in a new trading range between 40 and 41, which is higher than it was last week. It was cool to see it almost hit 42, but that was a blip. It'll do that again for real, soon, and stay there, then continue up.

Agree. For those of us long in AG, there was never really a chance to sell on that blip or experience the drop. It came and went too quickly. Nothing really changes for me. To the extent that the Mrs. will loosen the purse strings, I will buy some more no matter what the price is.

This is my line of thinking. This is part of my "future". I'm in silver for the long term. Just as I don't base my 403(b) contributions on the market price, I do the same with silver, now that I've joined the party. I have a certain amount of money to spend on silver, and I will spend it. Buy high, buy low. Dollar Cost Average. Rinse, repeat.

[slvrbck]

I have been keeping an eye on those Sunday night run ups and they seem to be happening more frequently. . . only to be battered Monday morning. Not quite sure what it means.

[DeanStockwell]

Still short silver...seems like this upward trend is slowing down.
Sold off some QQQ puts today for a nice profit after seeing that -DI crossover last week. Having a feeling that we will see a bounce, nearing support around 56.
I've also been looking at the USD/JPY...very interesting chart action. Normally I don't touch currencies but I bought some YCS at 16.48(2x short yen) in after hours today with a tight stop.

Beauanderos: If we all followed JFF's advice we'd have enough money for that silver mine in Idaho in no time! I think it would be nice if a mod could sticky this as "the" silver thread. After all, it has 16 pages of posts and an abundance of information! One centralized thread would reduce clutter.
A trading thread would fit well into the economic predictions section of Realcent, also stickied. Good idea!

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

Still trying to turn the market. I know there are a few folks that have requested I post when I buy or sell so they can do the opposite. Bought heavily into 90% tonight at the coin club.. couldn't resist at 26x face.

[68Camaro]

Anyone know of a better source of spot data than kitco, which would allow customization of plotting the minute-by-minute data, or downloading the data so we can do our own plots?

[68Camaro]

Well, if we're turning this into a broad investing thread, I guess I'm "short" the broad commodities market overall near-term, as I had some money parked for a short time in DJP (had to park it somewhere for 90 days as a rule of the 401K, had a limited choice of options, and I made a little on DJP, provided it doesn't tank today), and will be selling that off today to move it into a trading account, to use to buy a combination of other things at the right time, to include CEF, PSLV, and PHYS.