Inflation, experienced vs Gov numbers

[68Camaro]

Media is posting government numbers showing CPI in low 2s, and Producer PI in 5-6 range. What are you feeling in your pocket?

My wife and I are seeing persistent, broad-based BIG price increases in everything from bottled water to dog food. Every time we shop. Yesterday I come home from stopping at BJs after work and tell my wife that the cases of water I had previously bought just last week had just gone from 3.49 to 3.99. Bread is up. Milk is up (was 2.29, now 2.99). Dog food was 6.99, now 7.99. Where prices aren't going up, the package sizes are shrinking. I'm stocking everything that has a reasonable shelf-life, that I have room to store. (Not enough room, but cramming it in.)

[inflationhawk]

You can calculate your own inflation rate at myinflationrate.com. http://myinflationrate.com/
You can see the individual inflation rates for every component of the CPI. You can make your own index and calculate your own inflation rate.

This is my site that I created a little over a year ago (to very little fanfare). I did not get the site updated last month with the data. I'll do it tonight since I am bringing this up here. I'll update the numbers for the report that comes out tomorrow for March over the weekend. I've been too obsessed with penny sorting the last month or two and lost focus!

[AGCoinHunter]

Media is posting government numbers showing CPI in low 2s, and Producer PI in 5-6 range. What are you feeling in your pocket?

My wife and I are seeing persistent, broad-based BIG price increases in everything from bottled water to dog food. Every time we shop. Yesterday I come home from stopping at BJs after work and tell my wife that the cases of water I had previously bought just last week had just gone from 3.49 to 3.99. Bread is up. Milk is up (was 2.29, now 2.99). Dog food was 6.99, now 7.99. Where prices aren't going up, the package sizes are shrinking. I'm stocking everything that has a reasonable shelf-life, that I have room to store. (Not enough room, but cramming it in.)

I am seeing the same thing. Grocery bill used to be around $125 a week now $150- $175 and we have cut back on many non-essential items. Tried clipping coupons but the time necessary to do it just isnt worth it as both me and my wife work full time. Besides all the coupons in the paper now make you buy 2-3X what they used to and give you about 50% less off. I have noticed items shrinking also. Inflation is here and now regardless of what the media and government says. I grow a garden every year to suppliment our groceries and that does help but I just dont have enough room to grow much more. Planting fruit trees and berry bushes now in hopes of having some fruit from them in the next 2-3 years.

[Know Common Cents]

Food inflation, shrinking contents inside the old packaging and more cost to transport (suppliers to the stores and the consumers to get it home) is just about strike 3 in everyone's opinion.

Here in the Midwest, we're weeks away from the farmers' market times, but I hope those people will ask a fair price for vegetables and fruit, but not to gouge us.

[inflationhawk]

Ok data has been updated on http://myinflationrate.com/ for the month of February. The March data will be there this weekend.

Here are annual inflation rates from February 2010 to February 2011 for a few of the most inflationary items the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks:

Fuel oil 27.09%
Butter 23.31%
Gasoline (all types) 19.20%
Lamb and mutton 19.11%
Lettuce 19.03%
Airline fare 12.34%
Bacon and related products 11.97%
Uncooked beef steaks 11.16%

The CPI as a whole masks the inflation rate of many individual items.

[68Camaro]

Well, as I understand it, the CPI these days doesn't even include food or energy period any more, on the excuse that they are too "volatile". That's where most of us spend most of our money, and it's the most critical part of our spending. Most of the rest of our spending tends to be discretionary. Food and energy are manadatory, and left out of the CPI. That's BS.

Your numbers feel right per my wallet.

[inflationhawk]

Well, the numbers I posted above are the government's figures. The CPI is just an index the BLS puts together which holds a generic basket of goods. The items in the basket are not specifically meant to reflect any one individuals expenses, but society as a whole. For example, fuel oil only reflects 0.179% of the CPI, but for those that use heating oil for their home it probably represents more than that.

Food and beverage does represent 14.795% of the CPI http://myinflationrate.com/ItemCheckResults.php?item_code=SAF.

Food and energy are not included in the 'CORE' CPI, but the headline CPI does include food and energy. They report the headline number as well as the core inflation rate.

[68Camaro]

Well, the numbers I posted above are the government's figures. The CPI is just an index the BLS puts together which holds a generic basket of goods. The items in the basket are not specifically meant to reflect any one individuals expenses, but society as a whole. For example, fuel oil only reflects 0.179% of the CPI, but for those that use heating oil for their home it probably represents more than that.

Food and beverage does represent 14.795% of the CPI http://myinflationrate.com/ItemCheckResults.php?item_code=SAF.

Food and energy are not included in the 'CORE' CPI, but the headline CPI does include food and energy. They report the headline number as well as the core inflation rate.

I did look at the BLS CPI site and they do include food and energy into some of the indices they report, which makes some of the results even more unbelievable. I looked at their "CPI" inflation calculator and they claim 1.49% inflation the past year to year. However, I feel like (and the prices are seeming like) we're on the cusp of where we were in 1979, when year to year inflation per their data was 11.4% from 78 to 79, from 79 to 80 was 13.5%. Etc.

I've seen claims that BLS is gaming the data, but it would be difficult for the average Joe to say exactly how they are doing it.

[inflationhawk]

I agree that the CPI is not a good measure of inflation for any one individual. It really depends on what you are buying and where you are buying it.

[68Camaro]

I agree that the CPI is not a good measure of inflation for any one individual. It really depends on what you are buying and where you are buying it.

Sure, it's never going to be perfect for an individual. But what I'm noting is that the CPI seems more corrupted now than it used to be. The 10-13% inflation we had back in the late 70s, early 80s, felt like 10+% inflation at the time when I lived through it.

Whereas our 1.5% "inflation", which should be barely noticeable, feels very much like the early stages of those late 70s, off from reality by a factor of 4-6.

[beauanderos]

Last time I read the shadowstats site (and that was a year ago) John Williams claimed real inflation was near 7 percent, and could be as high as 10%. It must be a lot higher than that now. Price inflation is a delayed effect of inflation (increasing liquidity) that is inevitable, but at times lags excess money creation by six months to a year. Considering that the monetary base has been increase nearly five times what it is, most everything will soon get very expensive... not that that should be surprising to anyone on this site. That's why we amass PM's, to cope with, survive, and thrive during the approaching hyperinflation.

[slickeast]

I watch the prices go up every week when they hang new tags. I also see smaller packages every time we get a delivery. 16oz cans are now 13-14ozs. 6 oz cans of tuna are now 5 oz. 64 oz oj is now only 50 oz.

The new trick is to hang a tag with a new price and have it on sale for the old price for a week. Then at the end of the week tear the bottom sale price off and sell at the new higher price.

[didou]

The new trick is to hang a tag with a new price and have it on sale for the old price for a week. Then at the end of the week tear the bottom sale price off and sell at the new higher price.

I've seen that a lot around here, for the past 2 month almost every item in the groceries has got a new price tag and are on rebates at the old prices. Then 2 weeks ago the rebates at old prices started to disappear and they are now selling at the inflated price. Some item cost twice as much now.

I'm not sure why they do it that way, i think it's psychological, they try not to create any panic, they are preparing the mass for higher price.
Whatever it is, i'm loving it. I hate inflation as much as everyone else but if we must experience higher inflation, it's the way i like it deliver to me. I don't need to waste time with charts and numbers and read news, i just have to go to the groceries and see what products will be higher in 2-3 weeks and can stock these item before they go higher.
It's really convenient for the preps.

[psi]

Milk is up (was 2.29, now 2.99).

I only wish milk was that cheap here, the range is more like C$3.99 and up. Less subsidized here I guess. Aside from that I suppose a rise in fuel prices shows up in the cost of food pretty fast since huge amounts are consumed in production and delivery.

[Tourney64]

Several of us in my office buy large quantities of cashews in 2 lb 6 oz containers of Planters fancy cashews. Last year until about June I was paying 9.98 at SAMs Club. Price just increased 2 weeks ago to 12.88. It was 11.88 at the beginning of the year. That's a 30% increase in less than a year. Inflation is a hidden tax. Thank you Washington DC.

[68Camaro]

Milk is up (was 2.29, now 2.99).

I only wish milk was that cheap here, the range is more like C$3.99 and up. Less subsidized here I guess. Aside from that I suppose a rise in fuel prices shows up in the cost of food pretty fast since huge amounts are consumed in production and delivery.

That's store brand at a warehouse extreme discounter. "Normal" name brand price in a regular supermarket would be similar to your, upper 3s to over 4.

[John_doe]

Media is posting government numbers showing CPI in low 2s, and Producer PI in 5-6 range. What are you feeling in your pocket?

My wife and I are seeing persistent, broad-based BIG price increases in everything from bottled water to dog food. Every time we shop. Yesterday I come home from stopping at BJs after work and tell my wife that the cases of water I had previously bought just last week had just gone from 3.49 to 3.99. Bread is up. Milk is up (was 2.29, now 2.99). Dog food was 6.99, now 7.99. Where prices aren't going up, the package sizes are shrinking. I'm stocking everything that has a reasonable shelf-life, that I have room to store. (Not enough room, but cramming it in.)

Try planting a small garden. You would be surprised at how much you can save, and you can even sell or jar excess.

[John_doe]

Several of us in my office buy large quantities of cashews in 2 lb 6 oz containers of Planters fancy cashews. Last year until about June I was paying 9.98 at SAMs Club. Price just increased 2 weeks ago to 12.88. It was 11.88 at the beginning of the year. That's a 30% increase in less than a year. Inflation is a hidden tax. Thank you Washington DC.

Tax? More like legal robbery. Look at savings intrest vs. Inflation rates. Let's take a look at treasuries. The only way to make money in the united states, is to invest in other countries.

Very sad.