SILVER - WAS $31-$49, WAS $33-$43, NOW $44+

[AGCoinHunter]

But friends, my family acquaintance knows otherwise. I am as serious as a heart attack. Perhaps I might be able to take a quick picture of his extensive Peruvian Sterling Silver collection. I have not yet seen it's rival in elegant beauty. But maybe that might make you think that maybe I'm actually telling you something of importance.

Several tons a week in silver when they closed it down

So you know otherwise? Otherwise that the mines are not destroyed and can be brought into production at any time? Guess I am not following you?

[frugi]

silver is also a byproduct of many a worthless substances or less valuable substances, like turquoise. maybe mercury too?
I think many of the billionaires in the world own "silver" mines, or that is mines that produce a less valuable substance at a quantity sufficient to produce income, with the byproduct being silver. These billionaires liquidated assets back a year or so, and invested in mines with good output, and a good record of silver output. Bought them and shut them down. I don't make this stuff up, but I read a lot of the pages/predictions on the inflation.com site in my signature.

[68Camaro]

These billionaires liquidated assets back a year or so, and invested in mines with good output, and a good record of silver output. Bought them and shut them down. I don't make this stuff up, but I read a lot of the pages/predictions on the inflation.com site in my signature.

Interesting note to consider. It doesn't really affect my overall strategy, near-term, or intermediate-term, but it may affect my end-game at a later point. I'll keep that in mind as I read the news. Thanks

[whatsnext]

IMO

There are silver mines not in use today b/c the spot has been to low for generations. Why would you open a mine just to mine silver at a cheap price? As the spot goes up more silver majority mines will open up and start selling into the better priced market.

Who would mine silver for ten an ounce just to have the price go up later? Business is not always "we know it is there so get it to the market ASAP". Timing is everything. If you own a mine your not likely to be hungry.

Right now silver comes mostly as a byproduct b/c it is there with eveything else, but that could begin to change in a year or two.

[Jonflyfish]

Final unit with only one allocation. all in short at 43.91.

Cheers

[Country]

$44 SILVER within reach - looking strong, while the dollar looks weak again.

IMHO, we're going higher here; reaching $51+ right on schedule sometime during May.

[68Camaro]

The inflation/devaluation math on this, done up close and real time, is a bit fuzzy, but combined with some intuition (as well as the gold/silver ratio) what I'm getting out of it is that gold (which just hit $1500 for the first time BTW) is mostly just moving up as the dollar is going down. While that devaluation is also affecting the silver price, silver is moving at a higher slope and actually appreciating faster than the devaluation of the dollar and inflation.

[Country]

The inflation/devaluation math on this, done up close and real time, is a bit fuzzy, but combined with some intuition (as well as the gold/silver ratio) what I'm getting out of it is that gold (which just hit $1500 for the first time BTW) is mostly just moving up as the dollar is going down. While that devaluation is also affecting the silver price, silver is moving at a higher slope and actually appreciating faster than the devaluation of the dollar and inflation.

GOLD is doing exactly what it's supposed to do; preserve wealth as your currency depreciates. SILVER will apppreciate faster, while doing a multi-year catch-up all at once, to it's historical GOLD/SILVER ratio. It's good to have both, holding more SILVER than GOLD (2 or 3 allocations of SILVER to one part GOLD).

[68Camaro]

The inflation/devaluation math on this, done up close and real time, is a bit fuzzy, but combined with some intuition (as well as the gold/silver ratio) what I'm getting out of it is that gold (which just hit $1500 for the first time BTW) is mostly just moving up as the dollar is going down. While that devaluation is also affecting the silver price, silver is moving at a higher slope and actually appreciating faster than the devaluation of the dollar and inflation.

GOLD is doing exactly what it's supposed to do; preserve wealth as your currency depreciates. SILVER will apppreciate faster, while doing a multi-year catch-up all at once, to it's historical GOLD/SILVER ratio. It's good to have both, holding more SILVER than GOLD (2 or 3 allocations of SILVER to one part GOLD).

Roger that. I'm about 2:1 silver to gold, both physical as well as fund-wise. And improving on that more over time.

[Lemon Thrower]

financial derivatives are great for as long as the music keeps playing.

[beauanderos]

financial derivatives are great for as long as the music keeps playing.

Ditto. Dabble in derivatives but predominately a "wealth preservationist" here. All the fiat ones and zeroes in accounts won't do any good when physical runs out.

[68Camaro]

And we touch $44 officially....

[aristobolus]

Here, here...Read all about it! Fifty is now in our sights...

[Jonflyfish]

Something tells me that the market may reach towards the $30 handle. Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong.

Cheers

[68Camaro]

Something tells me that the market may reach towards the $30 handle. Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong.

Cheers

I've been moving money around as I've been re-balancing, to free up FRNs to continue to buy, which I've been doing. If it drops big-time, you'll see me buying in larger chunks rather than the smaller chunks.

[frugi]

We will see corrections, right? We will, when? who knows, I am a buyer all the way up, and all the way down. But at some point, maybe when the market is fluctuating 30% daily for silver, I will liquidate ALL of my silver, & put the $$ into gold. At that point I need a break from all this metal business. Seriously though, I plan to buy 20 acres, and put the rest into gold. Of course all this will be happening around $150/oz silver, & $3000.00/oz gold, I figure. SO I will do the quick switch, take some time off to develop my land, maybe a year or so, then get back into silver again, and hell by that time probably silver plated crap. I already have a buyer for silver plated forks @ $0.10 each. When silver tops, $100.00 I am sure silverplate will start to have merit for it's silver, and not just it's brass/copper content.

[neilgin1]

@frugi, i just saw the "Meltup" doc today for the first time, and noticed your inflation dot com signature...you have anything to do with that work? If so, hats off, nice editing, reporting etc. i'm closing on my acrerage most ricky tick, God willing, a nice balance between good hardwoods and tillable, ridge top and dead end, nearby county seat, mid 4 digit population is a mix between Woodstock and mayberry, 10 miles away.

@JonFlyfish, brother, $30?...from your mouth to God's ear. as i might have said, i been involved in futures for years, and i read what you wrote about using FRN's to make more FRN's and i hear ya, i just found out i couldnt handle that stress no mo. Anybody can offset an winner, no greater feeling, almost better than sex, but when you get a loser, that makes you want to eat a pistol, its time to reevaluate one 's involvement in speculation, and thats what happened to me. i wish you only the best in trade, neil

[68Camaro]

I think it was in Jon's focused thread that someone else (country? I'm too lazy to look right now) said a very similar thing first, but if there was going to be a correction I would guess it wouldn't be for another month and might be from 50+ down to low 40s, rather than now and from low 40s to low 30s. But what do I know. We'll see.

[glass]

I started buying around 30-33 glad I got started then
Havent made a bad deal yet

[DeanStockwell]

I will say this regarding a correction: Even though he won't admit it, when Jon talks, you better listen. He has an excellent track record, and whether you agree with him or not, I'd be very leary about buying here. I got stopped out right at the market open Monday(from a silver short position).
Initiated a put spread today in SLV;

June 11 puts
Bought 44 puts today at 3.15
Sold 38 puts for .79.
Cost me $236/contract; 42 contracts. Total price $9900.
Max profit: ~350/contract, $14700
Max loss: 236/contract, $9912.
Breakeven ~43.


The reasons are all the same; yet they are more extreme. Force index is higher; ADX is too high; +DI is extremely high; -DI is extremely low. We have broken way too high off the 10 EMA...the question is whether the market continues to act irrational.
I set my max profit target at 38...although I could see us dipping lower.

Good luck all!

[justj2k78]

I will say this regarding a correction: Even though he won't admit it, when Jon talks, you better listen. He has an excellent track record, and whether you agree with him or not, I'd be very leary about buying here. I got stopped out right at the market open Monday(from a silver short position).
Initiated a put spread today in SLV;

June 11 puts
Bought 44 puts today at 3.15
Sold 38 puts for .79.
Cost me $236/contract; 42 contracts. Total price $9900.
Max profit: ~350/contract, $14700
Max loss: 236/contract, $9912.
Breakeven ~43.

The reasons are all the same; yet they are more extreme. Force index is higher; ADX is too high; +DI is extremely high; -DI is extremely low. We have broken way too high off the 10 EMA...the question is whether the market continues to act irrational.
I set my max profit target at 38...although I could see us dipping lower.

Good luck all!

These all look like english words, but I'll be damned if I know what any of it means!

[68Camaro]

It's all part of the teachings of one of the several technical analysis schools. TA attempts to predict future behavior based on past behavior and relative trends.

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id ... rectional_

I have a friend that uses another TA school of thought. I think TA has some merit if you're willing to play the odds, stick to your rules, and be persistent even when losing, assuming you have the capital to do that. However, I have my doubts if it applies to this market. It might for the short-term trends. We'll see.

[DeanStockwell]

I will say this regarding a correction: Even though he won't admit it, when Jon talks, you better listen. He has an excellent track record, and whether you agree with him or not, I'd be very leary about buying here. I got stopped out right at the market open Monday(from a silver short position).
Initiated a put spread today in SLV;

June 11 puts
Bought 44 puts today at 3.15
Sold 38 puts for .79.
Cost me $236/contract; 42 contracts. Total price $9900.
Max profit: ~350/contract, $14700
Max loss: 236/contract, $9912.
Breakeven ~43.

The reasons are all the same; yet they are more extreme. Force index is higher; ADX is too high; +DI is extremely high; -DI is extremely low. We have broken way too high off the 10 EMA...the question is whether the market continues to act irrational.
I set my max profit target at 38...although I could see us dipping lower.

Good luck all!

These all look like english words, but I'll be damned if I know what any of it means!

Camaro provided a wonderful link. If you have any questions I'd be happy to ask. I am fascinated by technical analysis and researching trades and new ways to set up a trading system.

[Jonflyfish]

Thanks Dean, Camero, Neil, Frugi, Franklin, Country et al. You know, anything can happen in the markets. The goal isn't to be right, but to make (or preserve) money. Some of the best in the industry that I have had the privilege to call mentors are right only in the neighborhood of 30-40% of the time and they crush it. Any particular trade is no different than a hand dealt by the casino. They win some and lose some, but the angle of the dangle slightly points in their favor. That's all they need to build multi- $billion fun houses in the sand. Trading is all about taking trades where the odds are in your favor and taking many of them. The results work themselves out. As long as there is a positive expectancy, any single trade doesn't mean much to the whole.

Have a pleasant evening.

[Jonflyfish]

I will say this regarding a correction: Even though he won't admit it, when Jon talks, you better listen. He has an excellent track record, and whether you agree with him or not, I'd be very leary about buying here. I got stopped out right at the market open Monday(from a silver short position).
Initiated a put spread today in SLV;

June 11 puts
Bought 44 puts today at 3.15
Sold 38 puts for .79.
Cost me $236/contract; 42 contracts. Total price $9900.
Max profit: ~350/contract, $14700
Max loss: 236/contract, $9912.
Breakeven ~43.


The reasons are all the same; yet they are more extreme. Force index is higher; ADX is too high; +DI is extremely high; -DI is extremely low. We have broken way too high off the 10 EMA...the question is whether the market continues to act irrational.
I set my max profit target at 38...although I could see us dipping lower.

Good luck all!

Interesting you mention options Dean. Something tells me that the Call skew structure is preparing to punish far too many who have recently found themselves in the money.