Technical Analysis of Silver

[Jonflyfish]

Here is a technical analysis screenshot of silver, JFF style.
Smooth as butter...

[Jonflyfish]

Weekly Cycle Analysis

Normal Lower Limits : 40.489 - 45.841 - 47.119

Neutral Range : 39.268 - 49.427

Critical Point : 40.053

The market is going to consolidate within the weekly cycle normal lower limits at 40.489 - 45.841 - 47.119. It is likely that the market will tackle the supporting barrier at 39.268 // 41.232. Sell on rallies is still the preferred trading strategy.

[68Camaro]

Can't see the image?

Pretty volatile set of end points, but easy to believe in now given what we've been seeing. I'll be looking for an appropriate rally to sell some paper and dips to buy back.

[68Camaro]

Ah, there's the image now...

[Jonflyfish]

Sorry about the slow image load. Just updated with a better image service.

[Jonflyfish]

You can believe in stories that are craftily written and told by the likes of Sprott or Soros as a reason to buy and hold to "infinity and beyond" (As my daughter would say) , BTFD etc etc, only to find out after the fact that such trusted prophets dumped their position into the face of such blindly trusted dis-information. You can also believe (without any credible information) that a correction or selloff is simply string pulling manipulation by a wirehouse, top tier or central bank, or exchange. Either way, the price fully reflects the collective positions of the market participants. Believe what you want. I believe in price.

Cheers

[68Camaro]

Price isn't a scalar value. Price is a vector, if not a tensor. There is price short term and price sustained. Day traders or short-term holders need to believe in short term actual price, and care more about the near-instant peaks and valleys. Physical holders focus more on long-term sustained price - mean line and trend direction. At some point they do come together. And some of us are into both types, and watching both segments.

I don't buy or sell because of anything that either Sprott or Soros do. Though they have to be part of the equation, they are a small part in my peripheral vision. I'm personally looking at the overall US and world economy for my decisions. If I'm watching only Sprott or Soros, I take my eye off the ball. They are just diversions.

[Jonflyfish]

Price is the ultimate indicator....

[hejira11]

Jon,

Where is your signature from? It is very true.

[Jonflyfish]

Jon,

Where is your signature from? It is very true.

Ernest Hemingway

[68Camaro]

Anatomy of Silver Manipulation - How Low Can It Go?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/268691- ... -can-it-go

The challenge to technical analysis, (or even of basic playing the dip) of silver is... are you smart enough, or lucky enough, to game the gamers? I believe the market is being completely manipulated. Thus the price isn't really a price - it's what the gamers want it to be in order for them to try to achieve their ends. I think you can play TA in this only as long as they want to make it appear like TA still applies. I believe they can only continue it because they have huge resources; it is a ponzi scheme that will backfire on them at some point because they keep uping the ante, and because the market isn't just paper - it is physical, their bluff is being called, and will continue to called until there isn't enough silver left to deliver. At which point the curtain opens and the wizard is revealed.

[Jonflyfish]

Anatomy of Silver Manipulation - How Low Can It Go?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/268691- ... -can-it-go

The challenge to technical analysis, (or even of basic playing the dip) of silver is... are you smart enough, or lucky enough, to game the gamers? I believe the market is being completely manipulated. Thus the price isn't really a price - it's what the gamers want it to be in order for them to try to achieve their ends. I think you can play TA in this only as long as they want to make it appear like TA still applies. I believe they can only continue it because they have huge resources; it is a ponzi scheme that will backfire on them at some point because they keep uping the ante, and because the market isn't just paper - it is physical, their bluff is being called, and will continue to called until there isn't enough silver left to deliver. At which point the curtain opens and the wizard is revealed.

Appreciate your comments Camaro. My take is that the market may or may not be manipulated but the true position bias cannot be hidden. f it changes or shifts, that becomes visible as well. Price reflects the collective body of market participants. Rumors, accusations, misinformation, disinformation, funnymentals etc, have no visible skin in the game.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Afternoon technical update-

[beauanderos]

I agree. Price does reflect the collective body of market participants. Unfortunately, some of those participants game the system to their advantage, thus the result is one based not upon fundamentals, but on machinations. In that sense, it is illusory. Deny it all you want, but there is too much corroborative evidence to be dismissive. And I'm not talking anecdotal rumors, stories, etc. Rob Kirby, Ted Butler, Jeff Nielsen, among others, have long-documented the shady dealings that have transpired. Don't understand why some are so adamantly opposed to the proposition that we don't have free markets in the US. I suppose next we'll hear that there really is no such thing as the plunge protection team. Big govt has their hands in the markets, that's all there is to it. So can you still play dips and peaks to your advantage? Obviously so, but trusting only TA will expose you to occasional distortions that aren't natural market phenomena IMHO

[Jonflyfish]

I agree. Price does reflect the collective body of market participants. Unfortunately, some of those participants game the system to their advantage, thus the result is one based not upon fundamentals, but on machinations. In that sense, it is illusory. Deny it all you want, but there is too much corroborative evidence to be dismissive. And I'm not talking anecdotal rumors, stories, etc. Rob Kirby, Ted Butler, Jeff Nielsen, among others, have long-documented the shady dealings that have transpired. Don't understand why some are so adamantly opposed to the proposition that we don't have free markets in the US. I suppose next we'll hear that there really is no such thing as the plunge protection team. Big govt has their hands in the markets, that's all there is to it. So can you still play dips and peaks to your advantage? Obviously so, but trusting only TA will expose you to occasional distortions that aren't natural market phenomena IMHO

I don't deny The Ted Butler stories etc, especially when the CFTC comes out with a statement specifically naming parties involved. Having said that, I do find it curious as to what the motives were of the CFTC to acknowledge what they did, when they did. Silver rocketed from the 16's to 50 after that. Once something of that magnitude has been disclosed, knowing that the parties mentioned are also principally involved in the largest physical market, which is not transparent, I don't imagine that they were so dumbfounded as to remain idle in their efforts to offload risk.

To what degree party X is short or long in one market vs offsets in another isn't knowable. Some investors may make decisions on what they believe to be true about such unknowable exposures, but I do not. There were many who believed that a squeeze was about to shoot silver from $50 straight to $150+. Not my style. All transparent markets that have a reasonable amount of liquidity are fair game for my approach. In an open auction market, I trade price and price alone, regardless of what the street rumors are. In my experience, rumors are usually old news, if not intentionally circulated dis or mis information.

Everyone has their own approach to the markets. That is and should be respected since everyone is unique. The freedom to participate and the open access to the markets is most respected by me.
It has been the means by which I have been able to provide for my family.

Many folks on forums like Realcent are hypersensitive about the physical vs financial markets. I can appreciate that. There is no sense in arguing that one is better than the other. Personally, I like having both for many reasons. When someone allocates their wealth to a certain investment, they look for reasons to support their decision (some with delusional euphoria). The same is true for whomever took the opposite position as well. It is natural investor psychology even though a majority of investors loose money from the investment decisions they make. This is part of another much deeper topic.
My hat is off to anyone who finds success using their own unique strategy and tactics to meet goals and objectives with success, especially REALCENTers.
I wish you all the best of success.
Cheers