Quantifying Recent Corrections

[Country]

While this correction has been particularly nasty, most of the SILVER corrections in the recent past have removed excesses and price rises that were unsustainable at certain price periods. Looking at the recent price rises and corrections of significant size gives the following data:

June 2010 to January 2011

Spot SILVER rose from $17.22 and topped out at $31.21. Taking 6 months, this was a price increase of $13.99 and a percentage increase of 81.2%.

January 2011 to February 2011

Spot SILVER declined from $31.21 and bottomed at $26.38. Taking only 2 months, this price decline was $4.88 or a percentage decrease of -15.6%.

February 2011 to April 2011

Spot SILVER rose from $26.38 to $49.75. Taking 3 months, this was a price increase of $23.37 and a percentage increase of 87.6%.

April 2011 to Date

Spot SILVER has declined from $49.75 to $40.58 so far. While not yet completed, this is a price drop of $9.17, an -18.4% decline.

It seems that recent price rises are on the order +80%, while recent price declines of approximately 2 months in duration are on the order of -20%.

If the current correction follows these patterns, SILVER will quickly be oversold sometime in May. While this correction has been sharp and quick, this is quite normal for SILVER corrections. My conclusion: Most of the damage has probably been done already according to recent SILVER corrections. A period of stablity should ensue prior to the next large price movement, probably beginning after the summer doldrums, commencing in August.

[beauanderos]

I suspect that you are right. Too bad I didn't set my sell orders one day sooner. Now I have to ride this out.

[Treetop]

I actually almost sold 80 percent of everything last week. Certainly wish i had at this point.

[aloneibreak]

Now I have to ride this out.

im sure youre not alone...

[zerocd]

So the dollar is now healthy. Our financial systems will just print their way out of this. The debt will fall on some generation after our death.

One week out of thirteen or fourteen, a trap is sprung and we are all done with riding a wave of speculation.

Silver lost it's juice.

sarcasm/off

Well, I don't see any safer havens than gold and silver right now that the common man can manage.

I wasn't in for the quick buck. I wasn't banking on Bolivian mines. Whatever China's doing, I bet they are secretly thrilled at the current price and will just buy their commodities more discreetly.

I do see that Harvey figures the Comex and the LBMA are having trouble with physical supply. I experienced myself the Tulving was Out of Stock on Eagles the last day of Expiry. I saw three other big suppliers were out of Eagles as well. Mints appear to have trouble securing blanks.

The margin increases will reduce the number of times Blythe must open her checkbook. A more exclusive club will line up for the monthly payoffs to roll forward.

Silver being silver.

I do think that if enough people will hold silver, the Comex may have trouble delivering and I am willing to buy all I can to see if they somehow default on delivery. It would be a bit of fun if all of a sudden, silver had a price in relation to it's availability.

I'm hanging and no regrets.

0CD

[68Camaro]

It's very tough to time, and impossible to time all the time. I've been lucky-right a few critical times. And being mostly right, but being off by a day or two (or year or two), almost sucks worse than being totally wrong. I was right in 1987 and 2008; both times literally sold at top and avoided the crashes. That saved my ass twice. I was almost right in 1999 when I converted out of the market, but then (crazy time that it was, but I didn't trust it) it took two more years for the collapse to actually happen, so I missed the big top of the bubble. And I was completely right in the fall of 2001, but with some new stocks given in an inheritance it took 2 months to actually gain legal control of the stocks and by the time I had done so Enron and several others had literally become worthless, to tune of a 30K plus loss. So it sucks being almost right, or right but powerless.

I would have sold my paper silver over the weekend if I could have, but by the time it was actually possible at market open on Monday the damage was done. Still at break even on that, and willing to ride it out, though I will look for spots of smaller paper buy/sell opportuntities.

As far as physical, still accumulating, though now with smaller lower hanging fruit. Going to try to save some FRNs for buying opportuntities during the sell-off. In the end, it will be ounces that matter, and I still have this nagging concern (burning push?) that there might come a time when coin will become difficult to find, no matter the price.

[beauanderos]

Had planned on scraping some AGQ profit off the table to buy some fractional 999. But... that's what greed can do to you. I thought da boyz would let us hit $50 before crushing silver. So missed out on taking advantage of this drop. The market will return to the prior level by Fall, but it is annoying to drop $700,000 in two days and then require two months to recoup it. Grrrrh. Ah heck... it's just numbers

[Pennybug]

I see FAR too many folks on here who wish they had sold their silver when it was higher. IMHO... unless you are IN NEED OF FRN's or you are a coin dealer for a living... I really think you all are missing the point to all of this. Silver is NOT a "day trader" commodity item! Chasing silver like that will lead you down a MUCH HARDER road then day trading stocks! If your looking for short fast hard gains... PM's AREN'T it! I know that there will be replies to the contrary on this... and I'm not trying to slam anyone or criticize anyone's plans... It's just that you may want to reconsider your plan of attack for short gains. You would be FAR better off researching companies and day trading. You'd likely be able to have a MUCH better insight for predictors on when to buy/sell. My one correction I should make for myself is that I believe that my view really applies to physical. Trading paper silver... I can see "day trading" silver like that.

YES.. I could sell a good portion of my silver right now and make a few G's compared to my original investment... but then I'd have to hunt down deals again on the assumption that silver will be back down to where it was when I bought PLUS I may not end up with a collection I'm as happy with as what I have now (again... assuming were talking physical). If your selling rolls from a monster box later on in the season to offset the initial cost... that's one thing. But selling most of your stash... I dunno. Not for me (course I'm fairly new at this too)! The only thing spot means to me is HOW MUCH can I afford to buy and what I'm going to look for (I try to get some numismatic value since it hit over $40... IE.. I'm buying Morgans and Barbers right now for good deals). I just don't think that selling major portions just because we hit some highs is a hot idea... and I'm a risk taker by nature! Again... I say this so that others may look at day trading options. I don't do any of that right now... but I plan on it soon! SIlver and Gold are my securities... not my stocks. To each his own I guess!

[Treetop]

Had planned on scraping some AGQ profit off the table to buy some fractional 999. But... that's what greed can do to you. I thought da boyz would let us hit $50 before crushing silver. So missed out on taking advantage of this drop. The market will return to the prior level by Fall, but it is annoying to drop $700,000 in two days and then require two months to recoup it. Grrrrh. Ah heck... it's just numbers

I wouldnt be surprised to see silver go much lower then it is now since it was knocked off its horse, but Im curious what makes you think it will take until fall to recover? i highly doubt that myself. I think our old girl is going to get beat down for 2-3 weeks tops. then she will stand taller then ever. there seems to be a concerted effort to call this a top. I feel there are as many hands waiting for this drop as theyre were those trying to create it....

[Pennybug]

Had planned on scraping some AGQ profit off the table to buy some fractional 999. But... that's what greed can do to you. I thought da boyz would let us hit $50 before crushing silver. So missed out on taking advantage of this drop. The market will return to the prior level by Fall, but it is annoying to drop $700,000 in two days and then require two months to recoup it. Grrrrh. Ah heck... it's just numbers

I wouldnt be surprised to see silver go much lower then it is now since it was knocked off its horse, but Im curious what makes you think it will take until fall to recover? i highly doubt that myself. I think our old girl is going to get beat down for 2-3 weeks tops. then she will stand taller then ever. there seems to be a concerted effort to call this a top. I feel there are as many hands waiting for this drop as theyre were those trying to create it....

I agree... I don't think that this drop will last long. It may go deep (and I'm waiting for the low $30's myself to make another big strike)... but I don't see any reason it will last long. I suspect it will level out around $37 for a few weeks (maybe up early summer)... but I think we will see $50 for at least one month solid this year and then maybe some $40's through 2012... overall... I'd say the days of $30's silver will be few and far between.

[beauanderos]

Oh, I'm not calling this a top. That's what THEY want the noobies to think, to scare them away. A lot bigger players than any of us have been watching this drama unfold, waiting for an opportunity just like this. Zach, I'm just basing my recovery time on emerging from the seasonally weak months, though that may not be much of a determining factor anymore. A bounce back could occur much quicker, I expect that it will... but I'm not going to bet on it. Just hold the course with what I've already stacked, I don't sell physical except to thin my culls from time to time. The paper profits aren't there until you sell, and the paper losses aren't there either if you play without stop losses and don't panic. The market will return to it's recent glory, I am quite confident of that, so much so as to reaffirm my 2011 prediction of $100 by the end of the year. A few months from now this will appear as an annoying blip on the charts. Try to keep dollar-cost-averaging (not using credit) into some physical each month and take advantage of these temporary pullbacks. Think of them as a gift. A couple of years from now you won't be able to source silver at any cost, and will be glad you held now... and bought more, even if for some it's just a few dimes a week. It all adds up

[Jonflyfish]

I see FAR too many folks on here who wish they had sold their silver when it was higher. IMHO... unless you are IN NEED OF FRN's or you are a coin dealer for a living... I really think you all are missing the point to all of this. Silver is NOT a "day trader" commodity item! Chasing silver like that will lead you down a MUCH HARDER road then day trading stocks! If your looking for short fast hard gains... PM's AREN'T it! I know that there will be replies to the contrary on this... and I'm not trying to slam anyone or criticize anyone's plans... It's just that you may want to reconsider your plan of attack for short gains. You would be FAR better off researching companies and day trading. You'd likely be able to have a MUCH better insight for predictors on when to buy/sell.

Whoah there. What are you talking about? How are you determining what a good market for short term or day trading is or isn't? I've traded both for a long time and beg to differ with your summary judgment. Are you, or do you day or swing trade either or both of these markets?
There is are several good reasons why equity volume has deteriorated over the last several months and handful of years and commodity trading volume has increased significantly. There are far more top earners trading commodities and currencies than equities So please support your comments. I'm dying to know where your musings are originating.

[Jonflyfish]

It's too late for anyone to now call any tops. the market already has nearly 25% to rally to reach the prior peak.

[fb101]

The only thing to really take away from this is that the manipulation is smiled on by TPTB.
Numismaster has a good article on this.
"Take That You Silver Bulls"
http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Art ... id=2219710

[Treetop]

Oh, I'm not calling this a top. That's what THEY want the noobies to think, to scare them away. A lot bigger players than any of us have been watching this drama unfold, waiting for an opportunity just like this. Zach, I'm just basing my recovery time on emerging from the seasonally weak months, though that may not be much of a determining factor anymore. A bounce back could occur much quicker, I expect that it will... but I'm not going to bet on it. Just hold the course with what I've already stacked, I don't sell physical except to thin my culls from time to time. The paper profits aren't there until you sell, and the paper losses aren't there either if you play without stop losses and don't panic. The market will return to it's recent glory, I am quite confident of that, so much so as to reaffirm my 2011 prediction of $100 by the end of the year. A few months from now this will appear as an annoying blip on the charts. Try to keep dollar-cost-averaging (not using credit) into some physical each month and take advantage of these temporary pullbacks. Think of them as a gift. A couple of years from now you won't be able to source silver at any cost, and will be glad you held now... and bought more, even if for some it's just a few dimes a week. It all adds up

Oh I know you well enough to know you didnt think this was a top. I was just saying I dont think it will take until fall to recover.

[Jonflyfish]

The only thing to really take away from this is that the manipulation is smiled on by TPTB.
Numismaster has a good article on this.
"Take That You Silver Bulls"
http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Art ... id=2219710

It's always manipulation if the market moves against you, right?
If the market moves in your favor then it is simply a job well done and a pat on the back!

[Pennybug]

I'll comment further once I clarify a few things that I had originally posted:

#1) We are talking about physical silver ONLY

#2) We are not talking about selling off portions of major purchases to offset the initial cost

#3) We are not talking about being a dealer or full time seller of physical silver (IE.. this is just a money making or otherwise "hobby" or "savings account" method for wealth storage.)

#4) We are talking ONLY about looking for short gains... not long term gains.

If you agree with these points... then I'll add some support for my original comments/musings.

[Jonflyfish]

I'll comment further once I clarify a few things that I had originally posted:

#1) We are talking about physical silver ONLY

#2) We are not talking about selling off portions of major purchases to offset the initial cost

#3) We are not talking about being a dealer or full time seller of physical silver (IE.. this is just a money making or otherwise "hobby" or "savings account" method for wealth storage.)

#4) We are talking ONLY about looking for short gains... not long term gains.

If you agree with these points... then I'll add some support for my original comments/musings.

The spreads and transaction costs (vaulting, transportation, assaying, time) for trading physical silver are prohibitive and inefficient. That is why there are financial instruments which are more efficient, liquid and transparent. Taxes are another issue. Trading with 60/40 taxes vs collectibles is far superior.