Imminent Silver Correction

[Market Harmony]

Something to consider

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... et=&ccode=

[Jonflyfish]

Not able to keep enough updates here. Have been extremely busy trading. Have been positioning short a bit early ahead of the correction. However, when capitulation happens it is nearly impossible to build a position in opposite. Still highly leveraged short from higher and holding for lower. Selling on rallies is the preferred bias as the critical $40 handle is targeted.

Cheers

Still valid- Cheers

[Jonflyfish]

George Soros and other action seeking evil speculators ( ) are and have been selling silver and other PM's-
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 60280.html

[Jonflyfish]

And of course, the man who has been busy feeding the physical supply and logistics dis-information to the public, in efforts of pumping up his ETF's share price, ultimately decided it more appropriate to unload on those whom he suckered-

http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-spr ... etf-2011-5

[Beau]

.
NEVER TRUST A GUY WITH CROOKED GLASSES.

THAT MEANS HE IS A CROOK.

.

[Morsecode]

"Epic collapse"

LOL!

From $49 to $42, which is what? like two weeks ago?

[Jonflyfish]

"Epic collapse"

LOL!

From $49 to $42, which is what? like two weeks ago?

So far it has been from $50 to $41. Not sure what is "epic" or "LOL" about it. Was only a few days yes. And the time before that was only 31 years ago. LOL

[Morsecode]

The link you posted mentioned epic collapse in the first sentence. Read your own links much?

[68Camaro]

The business insider site, which I've not read before, has a clear bias against silver, especially physical silver. Are they right or wrong? I don't know. If they are right, then I'm wrong, and so be it. But the lack of balance, and the insistance that the dollar is okay, just slightly devalued, rings warning bells. Someone is right, someone is wrong, and even though I am forced to continue to use it, I don't trust the dollar.

Is Sprott allowed to sell shares of his own fund? Sure. Do I fault him for that? No. His fund is ounces of silver (more or less). He can buy or sell whatever he wants. In buying or selling his fund, I'm buying or selling ounces of silver, in paper form. I don't make my decisions based on what he buys or sells.

...

Continuing, silver is either going to "base" here, or it is going to slide further. I know several supporters here think it's just a few days or a couple weeks before it picks back up. But it doesn't look like its going back up for awhile (barring some major other event). I personally don't think it's going to slide much further (might see a brief dip below 40). I think it will base in the low 40s, probably for at least 2 months, maybe up to 4, and then pick back up again at the same slope we've been on.

Some of the calcs I've seen have compared maxs and mins based on individual trade spikes. Comparing near 50 to near 40 doesn't count. Sure we briefly saw 49+, and we've briefly (so far) dipped to near 40, but those extremes aren't meaningful. Meaningful numbers are 48 and change for a peak, and the current sustained lows of 41 and change. It's now trying to decide if it wants to find a floor at 41 or 42. That's 15-ish% drop, definitely a correction, but hardly unexpected, or unusual.

[neilgin1]

Good to see you back JFF!
Hope you made some good money last week. Lots of opportunity from that bernanke-induced sugar high.

Thanks Dean. Been crushing it hard. The technicals are clear and simple when swing trading inside the volatility (money maker)
Trading this market has been like stealing candy from kids- almost unfair.

Cheers!

Quite an opportune time to see you back Jonny.

you know bud, i been around a while. 30 years, started as a runner, ran a trading desk, traded in the pit, traded off the pit, in an office, on top a mountain, made good money, lost good money, know a lot of guys, and i've heard everything. in the early aughts, watched futures trade forums, saw plenty of palaber, plenty of guys who gave you a "watch over my shoulder", etc etc.

so i read you write, and i'm NOT trying to flame, but when something doesnt ring with me, doesnt sound right, i got to call it, so when you write:
"Trading this market has been like stealing candy from kids- almost unfair."....your hubris is so painful to watch, like Icarus bud.

You ever blown out Jon? I mean REALLY blown out?

Every great trader, and i've seen some Giants, to the man, they have all blown out at least once. The difference is, on the internet, who knows who is who?

Please hear me, i would never dare question the veracity of your posted trades, its the only time i saw trader's "stealing candy from kids", they were ACTUALLY stealing, frontrunning, bagging opening range orders, and closing range orders, allocating winners at the end of the day to various accounts, etc etc etc.

i know all about "trading systems", black boxes, quants and the like, and even today, every guy i know from the past, says to me, "this [shucks] is hard"...and i'm talking about the square players, not the thieves.

so, i'm glad your the exception, and had a swimmingly good time as the market raced past your previous "full allocations"...if it was me, my testicles would have crawled into my stomach. The futures market, options, etc, she is a snaky misstress, if you get cocky with her....one day....she's going to do some bad things to you.

You dont have to answer my "have you ever blown out?"...thats your business, but in due respect, i would be more humble when approaching the daily business of futures/option trade, if i was you.

and Jonny, again, due respect, but you're wrong, this market, silver, is going to places higher than you ever dreamed.

so you going to fight it all the way up to $75?....fight it to $150?........$250?..........$400?

dont detect hard feelings...none at all, for piss sakes i hope you're right, as i'm doubling up on the PHYSICAL if we go down.

no hard feelings...serious. May your purse prosper, neil

[68Camaro]

Likewise, we don't know you from Adam either Neil, or at least I don't. But I like your style. And not just because we happen to agree on something...

[neilgin1]

The business insider site, which I've not read before, has a clear bias against silver, especially physical silver. Are they right or wrong? I don't know. If they are right, then I'm wrong, and so be it. But the lack of balance, and the insistance that the dollar is okay, just slightly devalued, rings warning bells. Someone is right, someone is wrong, and even though I am forced to continue to use it, I don't trust the dollar.

Is Sprott allowed to sell shares of his own fund? Sure. Do I fault him for that? No. His fund is ounces of silver (more or less). He can buy or sell whatever he wants. In buying or selling his fund, I'm buying or selling ounces of silver, in paper form. I don't make my decisions based on what he buys or sells.

...

Continuing, silver is either going to "base" here, or it is going to slide further. I know several supporters here think it's just a few days or a couple weeks before it picks back up. But it doesn't look like its going back up for awhile (barring some major other event). I personally don't think it's going to slide much further (might see a brief dip below 40). I think it will base in the low 40s, probably for at least 2 months, maybe up to 4, and then pick back up again at the same slope we've been on.

Some of the calcs I've seen have compared maxs and mins based on individual trade spikes. Comparing near 50 to near 40 doesn't count. Sure we briefly saw 49+, and we've briefly (so far) dipped to near 40, but those extremes aren't meaningful. Meaningful numbers are 48 and change for a peak, and the current sustained lows of 41 and change. It's now trying to decide if it wants to find a floor at 41 or 42. That's 15-ish% drop, definitely a correction, but hardly unexpected, or unusual.

68, you posed a real good thought/question. you wrote:

"The business insider site, which I've not read before, has a clear bias against silver, especially physical silver. Are they right or wrong? "

under the black is white theory, the "business insider ('s) site has a clear bias AGAINST silver"....that's all the answer you need.

its the questions, WHY do "business insider's" so fear rising silver prices? WHY do they trumpet this disdain loud and clear?

to help us? ..........68, forgive that stupid question as i KNOW you know the answer.

these business insiders, commission men, quants, talking heads that have been peddling paper for years are cooked, these are some very very concerned men, with many a sleepless night, trying to keep this whole charade together with baling twine, tape, and utterances in the popular financial press of the day, and it is all lies and half truths.

They dont want us owning silver...they want us to continue with the lifestyle of using paper fiat, debit cards, and cyber "money". the thing they have going in their favor, is that people are suckers for the "truth", and frankly most of our good countrymen consume these lies, because the truth is too terrible to contemplate. but its the 1-2% of the populace at large that IS hoarding PM as currency insurance, business insider's hate this, the millions of ASE's, million's of 90%'s out there in record numbers being held privately, using this crap fiat being spun out in traitorous amounts, to buy our silver.

in such a situation, they know they lose. They lost our manufacturing base, which is killing the middle class. They've instituted the 'national security state', so as to keep us in fear, and compliant. They destroyed the unions...some may hate the unions, but i ask you all, talk to your great grand parents, grand parents, etc....ask them what the unions once meant to a single working man with NO bargaining power of his own. My people slaved in the garments industry, UNTIL they organized.

So, ownership of silver, is our way of saying to "business insider press concerns"...we dont believe you. Fed Reserve, we dont believe you. Legislature and Executive, we don't believe you.

This beautiful ASE i hold in my hand is one less bit of money, that will NOT go into the coffers of megabank "A", will not go towards the Crab Louie dinner of some K street lobbyist, will not find its way into the hands of some third world ahole despot, nope.

and they hate that...when we can see a truth farther, and not buy their "press releases", or listen to their shills.

Oh! how those jackals hate it. neil

[Jonflyfish]

Good to see you back JFF!
Hope you made some good money last week. Lots of opportunity from that bernanke-induced sugar high.

Thanks Dean. Been crushing it hard. The technicals are clear and simple when swing trading inside the volatility (money maker)
Trading this market has been like stealing candy from kids- almost unfair.

Cheers!

Quite an opportune time to see you back Jonny.

you know bud, i been around a while. 30 years, started as a runner, ran a trading desk, traded in the pit, traded off the pit, in an office, on top a mountain, made good money, lost good money, know a lot of guys, and i've heard everything. in the early aughts, watched futures trade forums, saw plenty of palaber, plenty of guys who gave you a "watch over my shoulder", etc etc.

so i read you write, and i'm NOT trying to flame, but when something doesnt ring with me, doesnt sound right, i got to call it, so when you write:
"Trading this market has been like stealing candy from kids- almost unfair."....your hubris is so painful to watch, like Icarus bud.

You ever blown out Jon? I mean REALLY blown out?

Every great trader, and i've seen some Giants, to the man, they have all blown out at least once. The difference is, on the internet, who knows who is who?

Please hear me, i would never dare question the veracity of your posted trades, its the only time i saw trader's "stealing candy from kids", they were ACTUALLY stealing, frontrunning, bagging opening range orders, and closing range orders, allocating winners at the end of the day to various accounts, etc etc etc.

i know all about "trading systems", black boxes, quants and the like, and even today, every guy i know from the past, says to me, "this [shucks] is hard"...and i'm talking about the square players, not the thieves.

so, i'm glad your the exception, and had a swimmingly good time as the market raced past your previous "full allocations"...if it was me, my testicles would have crawled into my stomach. The futures market, options, etc, she is a snaky misstress, if you get cocky with her....one day....she's going to do some bad things to you.

You dont have to answer my "have you ever blown out?"...thats your business, but in due respect, i would be more humble when approaching the daily business of futures/option trade, if i was you.

and Jonny, again, due respect, but you're wrong, this market, silver, is going to places higher than you ever dreamed.

so you going to fight it all the way up to $75?....fight it to $150?........$250?..........$400?

dont detect hard feelings...none at all, for piss sakes i hope you're right, as i'm doubling up on the PHYSICAL if we go down.

no hard feelings...serious. May your purse prosper, neil

Neil,

Thanks for the dogmatic pontifications. Your comments have the tone of someone who is wounded, watching the action from a distance and upset that you can't do anything about it. I have known many who have had their start on the floor but could not transition to trading upstairs.

To answer your persistent theme- yes, I blew out...four times in the early to mid 1990's while learning this business. That was before and in the beginning of my professional career. So yes, I know what that process is all about. Likewise, during that time I was working for Reuters and writing articles for TA of Stocks & Commodities magazine. That was during the years where I spent thousands of hours in research to develop algorithms and learns the finer practical points of risk management and money management, from where I was then recruited to run portfolios for a private money manager. Later, was recruited to work for one of the behemoth wirehouses to do that and more.

Neil, as painful as it may seem to you, I do know how to trade my friend. Have made more than some can imagine doing it. Trading in the markets and consulting in hedging and derivative risk management is how I make a living to this day. When I said trading this market was like stealing candy from a kid, I meant that it has never been as SIMPLE as it has been these last several days to make more money than ever possible in silver, and I have. This is not to brag or pat myself on the back, ask for praise etc. Don't need that. Just a response to your condescending and provocative tone. Will silver climb to 75...250....400 as you suggest? Absolutely. Will it happen anytime in the very near future- not a black swan's chance my friend. So please caution your "fighting it all the way up" bologna. Huge swings trading a very big line has generated more than i think you care to admit. Otherwise, you shouldn't be so focused on the daily "noise", nor weekly, monthly or annual for that matter. Just return here when it is at $450 and feel satisfied that you are the seer of silver. Nonetheless, I have nothing to prove here. Just freely sharing my opinion just like anyone else.

Best of luck to you and hope you can someday overcome the frustrations and losses.
Cheers!

P.S. Just look at this swing from this morning as shown below.It is a trader's dream come true.....One can simply sell 50 Nymex contracts and Carpe Diem!

[CardsNCoins]

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

Good to see you back JFF!
Hope you made some good money last week. Lots of opportunity from that bernanke-induced sugar high.

Thanks Dean. Been crushing it hard. The technicals are clear and simple when swing trading inside the volatility (money maker)
Trading this market has been like stealing candy from kids- almost unfair.

Cheers!

Quite an opportune time to see you back Jonny.

you know bud, i been around a while. 30 years, started as a runner, ran a trading desk, traded in the pit, traded off the pit, in an office, on top a mountain, made good money, lost good money, know a lot of guys, and i've heard everything. in the early aughts, watched futures trade forums, saw plenty of palaber, plenty of guys who gave you a "watch over my shoulder", etc etc.

so i read you write, and i'm NOT trying to flame, but when something doesnt ring with me, doesnt sound right, i got to call it, so when you write:
"Trading this market has been like stealing candy from kids- almost unfair."....your hubris is so painful to watch, like Icarus bud.

You ever blown out Jon? I mean REALLY blown out?

Every great trader, and i've seen some Giants, to the man, they have all blown out at least once. The difference is, on the internet, who knows who is who?

Please hear me, i would never dare question the veracity of your posted trades, its the only time i saw trader's "stealing candy from kids", they were ACTUALLY stealing, frontrunning, bagging opening range orders, and closing range orders, allocating winners at the end of the day to various accounts, etc etc etc.

i know all about "trading systems", black boxes, quants and the like, and even today, every guy i know from the past, says to me, "this [shucks] is hard"...and i'm talking about the square players, not the thieves.

so, i'm glad your the exception, and had a swimmingly good time as the market raced past your previous "full allocations"...if it was me, my testicles would have crawled into my stomach. The futures market, options, etc, she is a snaky misstress, if you get cocky with her....one day....she's going to do some bad things to you.

You dont have to answer my "have you ever blown out?"...thats your business, but in due respect, i would be more humble when approaching the daily business of futures/option trade, if i was you.

and Jonny, again, due respect, but you're wrong, this market, silver, is going to places higher than you ever dreamed.

so you going to fight it all the way up to $75?....fight it to $150?........$250?..........$400?

dont detect hard feelings...none at all, for piss sakes i hope you're right, as i'm doubling up on the PHYSICAL if we go down.

no hard feelings...serious. May your purse prosper, neil

Neil,

When you first came here.... didn't I read you say you were with the government for a long time? CIA, or some other spook agency??? Or, am I thinking of someone else?

[neilgin1]

Jon,
nice response, a post full of passive/agressive insults, assumptions as to my past, what i believe now, my finances, holdings.

right from the start: thanks for my "dogmatic pontifications", which is a sleek way of saying, "keep on with cement headed rants"...that made me laugh Jon, and inplicit insult buried within a faux "thank you".

i'm not "wounded" at all, and the transition from floor to off floor was seamless, because i've always been a spreader. But Jonny, my "off floor" trading activities were not conducted in an office, anywhere i had a cellphone and a quotron, and i speak of when a cellphone was the size of a toaster, i traded.

Now Jon, i was raised up in an old line trading firm, hedgers, and for a trader to brag, boast, even speak of his profits, his winnings in a boastful manner was frowned upon, it wasnt classy.

Understand me, i wish you NO ILL WILL, my fervent wish is that you prosper, and i do believe you trade for a living, not that you need my stamp of authenticity. So you writing that it is "painful" to me, that you trade, trade successfully is just bovine scat.

the guys i know, who trade full time house accounts, to this day, have little regard or little time for forum postings, especially the "look over my shoulder" variant.

ski ya, neil

[neilgin1]

Sheikh,
i graduated from the Defense Language Institute in the late 70's as a Korean Linquist, and served as a intel analyst/linquist on the Korean peninsula, and other stations. i speak, read and write other languages. i did not serve with the CIA.

my background is in geopolitical/economic analysis, energy analysis, with a background in both East Asia, and the theology of Islamic Jihadism. i've been involved in many many "careers".

Didnt mean to insult JonFlyFish, may he prosper, neil

[Jonflyfish]

Jon,
nice response, a post full of passive/agressive insults, assumptions as to my past, what i believe now, my finances, holdings.

right from the start: thanks for my "dogmatic pontifications", which is a sleek way of saying, "keep on with cement headed rants"...that made me laugh Jon, and inplicit insult buried within a faux "thank you".

i'm not "wounded" at all, and the transition from floor to off floor was seamless, because i've always been a spreader. But Jonny, my "off floor" trading activities were not conducted in an office, anywhere i had a cellphone and a quotron, and i speak of when a cellphone was the size of a toaster, i traded.

Now Jon, i was raised up in an old line trading firm, hedgers, and for a trader to brag, boast, even speak of his profits, his winnings in a boastful manner was frowned upon, it wasnt classy.

Understand me, i wish you NO ILL WILL, my fervent wish is that you prosper, and i do believe you trade for a living, not that you need my stamp of authenticity. So you writing that it is "painful" to me, that you trade, trade successfully is just bovine scat.

the guys i know, who trade full time house accounts, to this day, have little regard or little time for forum postings, especially the "look over my shoulder" variant.

ski ya, neil

Glad "Jonny" could be your source of humor Neil.
I would kindly ask that you review your post that you wrote, in full challenge to me and my ability, history, skills etc as a trader. Ask yourself if you didn't come across as one financial sage who somehow knows better than "Jonny". That is where the dogmatism reference is made. Now Neil, it is not polite, as you suggest, to boast about one's gains or profits, especially since it requires someone else to offset those gains. However, with careful review, you will notice that nowhere did I say how much I have made, only that I have been able to humbly provide a terrific lifestyle for my family and myself. I think sticking to the facts about the market and not worrying about whether I have ever blown out, my comments about the simplicity of making gains in good volatile markets for traders etc etc ad nauseam. I really think you missed the point of all my posts and chose to be critical of the writer instead. $40 handle was targeted as anticipated. That was simple Neil. I only wish the best for everyone here. Hence a few posts with some ideas. Sorry if that is to edgy for some who wish otherwise.

Cheers.

[Thogey]

Sheikh,
i graduated from the Defense Language Institute in the late 70's as a Korean Linquist, and served as a intel analyst/linquist on the Korean peninsula, and other stations. i speak, read and write other languages. i did not serve with the CIA.

my background is in geopolitical/economic analysis, energy analysis, with a background in both East Asia, and the theology of Islamic Jihadism. i've been involved in many many "careers".

Didnt mean to insult JonFlyFish, may he prosper, neil

Dude, you are a smart SOB.

To everyone who doesn't know, DLI probably has the highest washout rate of any training program in the military.

Also Korean is no joke to learn there. Neil, tell us about your mean (female?) Korean instructor. I might have heard of this individual. Not sure if she was in Monterey in the 1970's though.

[neilgin1]

Jon, i put an "y", or an "ie" after somebody's name that im trying to be friendly with. If i wanna insult you, i'll be direct, but thats not my purpose.

Let me very honest with you, there is an infamous "system" vendor, a plague upon many commodity forums that draw many newbies. This trader posts his trades, and the odd thing, he's always right, even when time and evidence proves he's not. And woe if you call him on this, he'll be well modulated, then he'll get ugly, etc.

i am NOT saying this is you, but, after every post he concluded with "Cheers". Now you might be a Briton, where "cheers" is used reflexively, but Jon i know traders, if you were on fire, they wouldnt piss on you. A trader with a successful system isnt giving away nothing for free.......so when you write : "my comments about the simplicity of making gains in good volatile markets for traders etc etc ad nauseam. I really think you missed the point of all my posts and chose to be critical of the writer instead."

i'm not critical of the writer, i'm leery of the writers motivations...........to even put the words "simplicity of making gains in good volatile markets" together in one sentence, makes me even more leery. There is no such thing, and forum, any futures trader that tells you "simple profits await you in volatile markets" is either A. a systems vendor, and B. trying to seduce you, by plucking at that greed motive we all have.

i hope thats not you Jon

[TXBullion]

JFF. you have a pretty good track record from my outsider view. What does the current data indicate about where the price might trend?

[Jonflyfish]

Jon, i put an "y", or an "ie" after somebody's name that im trying to be friendly with. If i wanna insult you, i'll be direct, but thats not my purpose.

Let me very honest with you, there is an infamous "system" vendor, a plague upon many commodity forums that draw many newbies. This trader posts his trades, and the odd thing, he's always right, even when time and evidence proves he's not. And woe if you call him on this, he'll be well modulated, then he'll get ugly, etc.

i am NOT saying this is you, but, after every post he concluded with "Cheers". Now you might be a Briton, where "cheers" is used reflexively, but Jon i know traders, if you were on fire, they wouldnt piss on you. A trader with a successful system isnt giving away nothing for free.......so when you write : "my comments about the simplicity of making gains in good volatile markets for traders etc etc ad nauseam. I really think you missed the point of all my posts and chose to be critical of the writer instead."

i'm not critical of the writer, i'm leery of the writers motivations...........to even put the words "simplicity of making gains in good volatile markets" together in one sentence, makes me even more leery. There is no such thing, and forum, any futures trader that tells you "simple profits await you in volatile markets" is either A. a systems vendor, and B. trying to seduce you, by plucking at that greed motive we all have.

i hope thats not you Jon

Neil, Neil, Neil-

You continue with the critique of suspecting everything I say as leery and hoaxy with some undertone connotations about the "cheer". Sorry man. I am as happy as anyone you'll meet. Unlike some who run their business through this forum, my business is with large energy and commodity enterprises, not peddling or schlepping some piker trading system.
I do understand how you appreciate the perpetual slight of hand backslapping to keep me on the defensive. Remember, while you may know traders, floor runners, silver going to $450 etc etc as one who constantly throws out various qualifications of self achievement, I will refrain from the level of institutional services that I provide. Furthermore, I see no sense in continuing to post anything here. You are trolling me off the board Neil. I guess you are right- nothing for free. I cannot freely offer any trading ideas just like anyone else here if the cost is to defend myself from such casual character challenges. I would suggest that you keep your comments to market related concerns and refrain from challenging others with empty rhetorical accusations while continuing to reference your basis as one who "knows", but does not offer.

Cheers

[neilgin1]

Thogey,
Thogey
(lol) slight correction, "BUDS" (Basic Underwater Demo) SEAL training might have a higher washout, we're a close second, because you have to vet for a TS-Codeword clearance, AFTER you pass a 9 month daily langauage training course, on your way to the classified portion of your training.

I heard about the 'dragon lady"....i had Mun San Saeng Nim, a dear man just turned 60, and i believe to this day, i was the youngest graduate of DLI ever. But i know i could have worked the dragon lady.......hey Thog, by the by, i just picked up, "How The End Begins", by Rosenbaum. His thesis is that strategic deterence is more wobbly, more dangerous than ever. You'd like the book, his onus for writing was a AF Major Herring in 1973, who posed a simple question during missilier training, "How can i know that an order to launch missiles came from a sane President?"

his AF career ended that day.

its a good read, reinforces my decision to relocate to a sparsely populated county.

neil

[neilgin1]

Jon,
post as you will, my apologies.

i would NEVER want to "troll" ANYBODY off any board.

i give you my word, i will never reference a post of yours in any unseemingly manner, at all.

my word is bond, please post as led, again, my apologies, neil

[moneydog]

Scaled in for last $2. Position is quite heavy now. Looking good. The future is unknowable.
Let's see...

yes i am buying it scaling in every $2 also just got some more