Imminent Silver Rally

[amalekidad]

Even a Zoobie will have to follow the Ute Jonflyfish on this one.

Hey guys, where is the best place to buy? I'm looking at APMEX.

[Treetop]

Im just going on a gut feeling here, but I think we are close to the bottom on this to.

[Lemon Thrower]

i don't think it goes up until very late afternoon or tonight. margin calls galore today.

but nothing has changed except to get worse so yeah i think it goes right back up.

Looks to be the case. Hence, positioning before the turn. In these volatile opportunities, waiting too long will freeze a trader. Perfect example would be the first $5-8 move down. It happened before most people even knew about it.

Cheers!

didn't mean my comments as an I-told-you-so. In fact, I thought $45 was the bottom.

[Jonflyfish]

Even a Zoobie will have to follow the Ute Jonflyfish on this one.

Hey guys, where is the best place to buy? I'm looking at APMEX.

Hehe. Yes welcome. Even the "Zoobies" and "Ewetes" can get along. This must be the capitulation.
Have to risk more on what was made down. Doubled position size again at $34.37

BTW- APMEX is one of a few trusted sources to buy from. There are some here on this forum as well.
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

i don't think it goes up until very late afternoon or tonight. margin calls galore today.

but nothing has changed except to get worse so yeah i think it goes right back up.

Looks to be the case. Hence, positioning before the turn. In these volatile opportunities, waiting too long will freeze a trader. Perfect example would be the first $5-8 move down. It happened before most people even knew about it.

Cheers!

didn't mean my comments as an I-told-you-so. In fact, I thought $45 was the bottom.

Oh LT- Did not take it the wrong way. In fact if you had said "I told you so", then you would earn a gold star. We're all friends here. Ideas, feedback, comments, observations, crystal balling etc should all be welcome. The more who participate in dialogue the stronger the unity of the forum. I like reading your posts as well as many others here. Please keep them coming. We are creating history.

Cheers

[slickeast]

Even a Zoobie will have to follow the Ute Jonflyfish on this one.

Hey guys, where is the best place to buy? I'm looking at APMEX.

I you don't mind waiting. NWTM

[fb101]

Jon... I hope you're right... but how do you expect a rally to occur in the face of the double slap down newly raised limits that CME just stated will be enforced as of tomorrow and then again on Monday?

100% with you on this one Ray.

Make my vote count here.........

Seriously, I'm not sure they'll stoop to setting the silver price by law, but isn't it obvious TPTB
will stop at nothing to get the price of silver down? (maybe gold too...)
I suppose the real hope is to shake loose the unsure and lower buy prices for the sure...........
In case it doesn't get mentioned, the difference between this and 1980 tumble is that the tumble in 80
was working in 18% interest rates. Last I looked the interest rates today are near zero.
This ain't the end of the bull.....

[68Camaro]

Looks like we're trending up tonight, both gold and silver. Don't know if this is the reverse back. If it is, don't know whether to be happy or sad. There may be one more chance to play in the early morning.

[DeanStockwell]

I don't even look at the Asian markets anymore to predict the price of silver in NY. Seems like it tends to do the exact opposite. I think we will fall again tomorrow.

[beauanderos]

I don't even look at the Asian markets anymore to predict the price of silver in NY. Seems like it tends to do the exact opposite. I think we will fall again tomorrow.

But if we DO fall, it will be from loftier heights, thanks to the Asian buying. Eventually, lower prices are just going to accelerate the price rise, secondary to sourcing scarcity. My take on this... the major damage was done today. Why would weak hands wait until Monday to get out? The price rises will be tentative, buyers are now wary. But confidence will re-emerge. This pullback, though engineered, is actually healthy for a long term bull run. Nothing has changed... if anyone is panicked... it's the CME. Think about it.

[whatsnext]

The only bad news about asia is they will dump when their currency starts going up, then you will see asia doing the opposite of what you want to see. Hyper inflation will be the only way to 500 silver at that point.

This depends on the US losing reserve status completely, I often wonder which counties will still buy our debt after China wants fully out or if they ever will get out completely.

[brian0918]

The only bad news about asia is they will dump when their currency starts going up, then you will see asia doing the opposite of what you want to see. Hyper inflation will be the only way to 500 silver at that point.

Asian currency will only be strong so long as they don't print, or if it's backed by a scarce resource such as gold or silver. If Asian banks start backing currency with gold, that will be bullish for silver. If they remain fiat, they will eventually start buying it up again as a hedge against inflation. Also, industrial growth in Asia would lead to increased demand for silver.

[Jonflyfish]

Closed 1/2 of the long position @ 37.75.

[Lemon Thrower]

Even a Zoobie will have to follow the Ute Jonflyfish on this one.

Hey guys, where is the best place to buy? I'm looking at APMEX.

I you don't mind waiting. NWTM

i like Golden State Mint. Pretty coins, low premiums. about 3-4 weeks if you pay by check.

[Jonflyfish]

Took profits on an additional 1/4 of the long silver position @ $38.33

Cheers

[68Camaro]

Took profits on an additional 1/4 of the long silver position @ $38.33

Cheers

So where are you closing out at?

[Jonflyfish]

Closed the remaining 1/4 long silver position @ $38.49

[inflationhawk]

So doing the math of your self documented trades it looks like
1 buy position at 38.88
1 buy position at 37.89
1 buy position at 37.60
1 buy position at 37.40
Doubled down (4 positions) at 36.67
Sold half (4 positions) at 37.75
Sold quarter (2 positions) at 38.33
Sold last quarter (2 positions) at 38.49

Comes out to a 2% gain on risk capital less the cost of 8 trades. You must have a lot of capital at risk to make this 2% return pay off after expenses...and then there are taxes on that 2% which at short term capital gain rates takes a big bite. If one trade goes wrong some day that could be really painful. Best of luck. I can see why so many others left the game.

[Jonflyfish]

So doing the math of your self documented trades it looks like

Comes out to a 2% gain on risk capital less the cost of 8 trades. You must have a lot of capital at risk to make this 2% return pay off after expenses...and then there are taxes on that 2% which at short term capital gain rates takes a big bite. If one trade goes wrong some day that could be really painful. Best of luck. I can see why so many others left the game.

I don't mind your attempting to put me down. Your numbers are not accurate or complete however. Not only are the position sizes not reflected correctly, but there are other purchases at $35.70 and then doubling the entire core position at $34.37. I checked and don’t see those posted here. They are on the blog however. Again, been very busy with work and as mentioned would probably not be able to keep everything up to date here in a timely fashion. Aside from wanting to share when free and able to do so, there is no purpose or reason to concern with what you think my position size or gain was or was not.

The idea in posting here has been to share some things. Sometimes it is a trade, sometimes a thought, or chart etc. There are also many other trades and positions posted here that you have casually passed by in your personal “audit” to opine about, not to mention the break @ $17 for a big rally that was posted here (on the old site). Again, if you want a real time trade blotter for whatever amusement, you won’t find it here from me. It is not fair to turn a forum into a trade blotter- especially since there is no reason to do so. That is a key point. Why would it even make sense when you are not nor have been a trader yourself? Indeed I made a fair sum on this particular trade that you surmised to be minuscule. However, there is no reason for me to prove how successful I’ve been as a trader over the years. Boasting is inappropriate and serves no useful benefit. I'm just sharing thoughts and ideas here like anyone else.
What you assume about "painful" and "if things go wrong" tells me that you have not, nor presently trade yourself. There is no such thing as "if one trade goes wrong..." in trading. It is part of "when" you are trading. Taking losses properly is the first requirement to making a lot of money.

You may also need to understand that 60% of the gains are considered at the long term capital gains rate and 40% as ordinary income. Of course, anyone who trades silver and other commodities in the financial markets already knows this.

I don't know what you think you know about why "others have left the game" but what I can tell you is that during the superbowl, there were many who "quit" long ago but paid plenty to sit in the stands and watch the game played by those few who make more than the bleacher warmers could ever fantasize about.
I suppose as the audience, they did pay for the right and privilege to "armchair quarterback" their team after the game has ended, even if that means that they have to discuss their superior knowledge of the game at the water cooler during the punch in/punch out daily grind of assembly line work or cubicle habitation.
But hey, what do I know? Only been doing this since 1993. Take it from George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, John Henry (Bought the Boston Red Sox with trading gains because he wanted to) and others who have been personally making $billions annually trading futures. Once you know their success stories you will know the other side of the story- those who didn’t “leave the game”.
In the end, just ask yourself this- What do you want for nothing, your money back?

Best of luck,
Cheers

[inflationhawk]

Not posting all your trades and then posting what you really did later is very convenient (and very profitable!) And you are correct in that the key point is not to turn this forum into a trade blotter. G'day, mate

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

Jon,

I know so very little about trading that I can't even comment here. But, the concept of paying 60% capitol gains/40% income vs. paying 100% income tax, plus FICA, plus FUTA, etc, etc greatly appeals to me.

You are right. Accepting loses is all part of the game in life. It doesn't matter if you are a trader, or a contractor, you are going to lose sometimes. The winners just learn from the experiences and move on to make a living.

I have always been a physical man, holding the real deal instead of paper. For someone like me, spot price is now irrelevant. I have the physical stuff. If you want it, you will pay my price. The "spot" is for paper futures contracts, not physical.

Please tell me how to start to learn this type of trading.

Thanks in advance,

Sheikh

[Jonflyfish]

Not posting all your trades and then posting what you really did later is very convenient (and very profitable!) And you are correct in that the key point is not to turn this forum into a trade blotter. G'day, mate

Is it? Why so snippy and stabby? Are you another one of those forum trolls looking to cause problems?
Do you see anywhere posted about the amounts gained on a per unit or in total on any trades ever posted on this forum?
No trade blotter = posting for purposes of sharing in a community. That means a few trades, comments, charts etc when able as previously mentioned, not a system of record to prove anything to strangers who aren't in the game. Don't expect otherwise. Seems as if you do, but admittedly don't. Makes for extremely convenient and inflammatory accusations. Some people live for that- eh mate?

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Jon,

I know so very little about trading that I can't even comment here. But, the concept of paying 60% capitol gains/40% income vs. paying 100% income tax, plus FICA, plus FUTA, etc, etc greatly appeals to me.

You are right. Accepting loses is all part of the game in life. It doesn't matter if you are a trader, or a contractor, you are going to lose sometimes. The winners just learn from the experiences and move on to make a living.

I have always been a physical man, holding the real deal instead of paper. For someone like me, spot price is now irrelevant. I have the physical stuff. If you want it, you will pay my price. The "spot" is for paper futures contracts, not physical.

Please tell me how to start to learn this type of trading.

Thanks in advance,

Sheikh

Sheikh,

Thank you for the kind words. I too am a physical man. Just that I use the financial derivatives as my means of income to provide for the family as well as make the physical purchases, similar to anyone who "earns" an income of notes from an employer, self or otherwise. So, still need as much of the FRN's as possible since it is the negotiable standard and I'd prefer using the easily transacted bernank notes as opposed to giving up anything deemed "precious". As far as trading and losses, it is counter-intuitive. Most people who begin trading have found success to some degree in doing something else first. They take that mindset of wanting to be a winner and try to force their hand at an unknowable future. What I can tell you is that the most successful traders are right 30-40% of the time, similar to baseball batting averages. You fail more than you succeed and that is what makes you successful. Losing small amounts in the market is like paying insurance premiums to protect your assets. Staying in the game and preserving capital is the first objective. This allows for small losses. When the gains come they can be many many times the size of the losses. It is important to sit tight when price moves in your favor and let the market run its course. This is the general concept of trend trading, where the serious money is made. Many trend traders also supplement with swing trades for smaller moves and scalp trades for very fast, short duration opportunities. Searching and studying these concepts will help you find what style is most attractive to your personality etc. Many who first start out miss the trend trading and go right for the swing and scalp trading, which requires more time and skill to master. More money is made in trend trading but that gets passed by in favor of looking at whiz bang lights flashing on the screen. Hence, many leave the game having missed all the trends or having enough experience to master the skills necessary to swing or scalp trade.

Hope this helps a little.
Cheers.

[theo]

Jon,

I don't find anything objectionable about your posting your activity, although I too am interested in reading more of your techniques and rationale. I'm more of a physical/long-term investor. While I can explain all obvious rationale of this strategy (long-term capital gains taxes etc), a big reason is that I lack the skills, experience and risk tolerance for short-term trading. Frankly this annoys me because I am hopelessly competitive. Anyway, I think it adds to the site to have a variety of viewpoints and strategies, even if it may rub some the wrong way.

Edit: Your explanation above is helpful. Thanks!

[Lemon Thrower]

jonny, thanks for posting. i don't "trade" but i appreciate you offering your opinions.

i learned long ago that its not for me.

for one, i don't have the patience for the short term moves.

second, i couldn't bear getting faked out of my core position in something that is in a long term bull market. I know you have a core position that you don't trade but it would be too tempting for me to comingle them.

everyone has to invest and manage risk in a way that suits them. often times, when you are a contrarian, your ideas challenge other people and they react negatively. i am a contrarian in a lot of things (investing, home schooling) and you just have to expect it. when investing, their reaction can sometimes be helfpful in that it confirms that you are moving in a different direction from the crowd.