Anyone Else Get Burned by the recent Price Drop?

[justj2k78]

It was more of a "P.R." nightmare for me. I got nearly 30 sarcastic Emails from friends copying me on the articles about the price dropping. I don't have the time or energy to address them all. The tree was definelty shaken and the under-informed got out. At least in my estimation. I am still bullish long term... as long as the fundamentals do not change.

I had that as well, both from people who are skeptical of precious metals, as well as people who were thinking about buying some or buying more. You can definitely tell who's not in it for the long-haul, and looking to flip it like a house in 2006.

First rule of silver club, you do not talk about silver club.

[Tourney64]

Price drop happened 1 day before my ATB PCGS graded set was finishing up. My buddy sold his set 1 day earlier for $400 more than me. My set was graded higher than his.

[beauanderos]

Price drop happened 1 day before my ATB PCGS graded set was finishing up. My buddy sold his set 1 day earlier for $400 more than me. My set was graded higher than his.

That's gotta hurt. Sorry to hear about that.

[hejira11]

Price drop happened 1 day before my ATB PCGS graded set was finishing up. My buddy sold his set 1 day earlier for $400 more than me. My set was graded higher than his.

GRRRRRRRR THAT would have pissed me off. I ended a lising on an 1986 Libertad proof (with box and COA) on the Bay. I ate the .50 cent listing fee and will sit on it for awhile. I did get caught buying the 2 2011 ATB's from APMEX for $618.00 shipped. I am KICKING myself for not waiting another week... Not an apples to apples loss with you Tourney, but I do feel your pain.

[Treetop]

Its actually kinda freaky that so many people stopped thinking silver was a good investment because of the recent price drop. If the reason cited is volatility, sure... that is certainly true. but it had only been above the levels its currently trading at for what? a month or so? maybe two Im not keeping track, it wasnt to long at all. Many folks expected a major correction since we were at 26, and we didnt get it until 49. That would imply to me anyway the market is even more bullish then many were thinking, not that any bubble in silver popped. Weve barely begun the ascent imo, unless theres some radical new monetary and energy prospects on the wings, that will alter our current course.... Let those people run from silver, but watch because when they start coming back en masse, the next major correction is likely due....

[beauanderos]

Its actually kinda freaky that so many people stopped thinking silver was a good investment because of the recent price drop. If the reason cited is volatility, sure... that is certainly true. but it had only been above the levels its currently trading at for what? a month or so? maybe two Im not keeping track, it wasnt to long at all. Many folks expected a major correction since we were at 26, and we didnt get it until 49. That would imply to me anyway the market is even more bullish then many were thinking, not that any bubble in silver popped. Weve barely begun the ascent imo, unless theres some radical new monetary and energy prospects on the wings, that will alter our current course.... Let those people run from silver, but watch because when they start coming back en masse, the next major correction is likely due....

Actually, I just started this thread so we'd have something different to discuss (from a different perspective) than all the stuff we usually rehash I'm confident that any purchases that we're making during this dip will turn out to be a good deal by Fall, but the members who were marketing stuff on ebay and got screwed by the engineered price drop lost real money.

[Treetop]

oh was I off topic here? sorry.....

I didnt exactly get burned, but I had bought and sold a bunch that weekend, had I bought less or none, I would of made out much better. I still ended up with a few more ounces then i had, and some money left over. I actually was going to sell much more, but a friend talked me out of it. My gambling finger woke up and told me to bet it all and sell. (used to have some crazy times in the casinos)

[hejira11]

First rule of silver club, you do not talk about silver club.

I do want more level headed people to wake up... But I can apprecciate where you are coming from.

[Verbane]

I'm getting burned as an end result. Neither of my regular sellers will even open the safe to sell to me. One told me unless price goes up he won't sell until the first of June.

[beauanderos]

I'm getting burned as an end result. Neither of my regular sellers will even open the safe to sell to me. One told me unless price goes up he won't sell until the first of June.

I was wondering how the small mom and pop coin shops are weathering these dramatic ups and downs? The salesman at APMEX told me they hedge over there (not sure how they do that, does anyone know?) But your corner shop? He buys at $48 or $49 and then he's supposed to sell it back to the public at $35 and ensure a quick loss? I think I'd just lock up the safe too and say inventory is low. If he could buy some at the lower prices, okay, he'd have product to move. But no one is selling low, they all want to buy low. Wouldn't surprise me if these market games drive some of the marginally capitalized coin shops out of business, and that hurts all of us.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

I'm getting burned as an end result. Neither of my regular sellers will even open the safe to sell to me. One told me unless price goes up he won't sell until the first of June.

I was wondering how the small mom and pop coin shops are weathering these dramatic ups and downs? The salesman at APMEX told me they hedge over there (not sure how they do that, does anyone know?) But your corner shop? He buys at $48 or $49 and then he's supposed to sell it back to the public at $35 and ensure a quick loss? I think I'd just lock up the safe too and say inventory is low. If he could buy some at the lower prices, okay, he'd have product to move. But no one is selling low, they all want to buy low. Wouldn't surprise me if these market games drive some of the marginally capitalized coin shops out of business, and that hurts all of us.

I tested my little theory yesterday about physical is now disconnected from "spot". I visited a coin shop I have not been inside for about 2.5 yrs. now. I asked how much ASE's sold for. He said $45. I said 'Isn't spot around $34-35 now?" No sooner did I say than than off he goes about spot being the sell price for a futures contract that is not backed by real silver, and you have to up front about $30,000 in margins, fees, taxes, and so on just to get in. Spot has nothing to do with real silver.

I laughed! I told him I agreed and just wanted to see what the coin shops had to say. You can look at fee-Bay, too. ASE's selling around $43 to 50 there.

The smart vendors will just tell people something like: "I've got more money into these coins than what spot is. I will sell at (fill in the blank) price." I do believe it is still a sellers market.

This is a engineered correction and has nothing to do with real silver.

[Thogey]

All that's fine. But you can guarantee, when silver pops back up to 50.00, they will pull that spot figure out their ass everytime.

[68Camaro]

I will agree, especially for the bullion coins. However, while 90% junk is still priced higher than recently relative to spot, it is available for slightly over spot from several sources, if you are buying in quantities; this even with the dip. I checked today with my local shop and they are selling halves for 26x. I was able to buy some for 25x off of ebay, but there only in very limited numbers. But the big shops can still supply $1000 bags - though I'm not completely sure how they are doing it. I asked my local guy and he said they follow an inventory computer program that tracks off spot and assesses what they've paid for their inventory vs spot, and ensures they sell for both more than spot and at a profit. So I'm guessing there are still certain larger shops with inventory that was purchased at well below where we are now, and they are still able to sell at near spot. The major mail order guy I work with is doing the same thing - he's still selling bags of halves, $250 min, at $1.29/oz over spot. I will presume that is only because they bought that inventory at much lower prices. These will soon dry up. Each of them said they only had a limlted number of these available. Some food for thought. I'm going to think on this over the weekend, look at my free FRNs, and decide if I can pony up for another bag while they are cheap.

[Verbane]

I'm getting burned as an end result. Neither of my regular sellers will even open the safe to sell to me. One told me unless price goes up he won't sell until the first of June.

I was wondering how the small mom and pop coin shops are weathering these dramatic ups and downs? The salesman at APMEX told me they hedge over there (not sure how they do that, does anyone know?) But your corner shop? He buys at $48 or $49 and then he's supposed to sell it back to the public at $35 and ensure a quick loss? I think I'd just lock up the safe too and say inventory is low. If he could buy some at the lower prices, okay, he'd have product to move. But no one is selling low, they all want to buy low. Wouldn't surprise me if these market games drive some of the marginally capitalized coin shops out of business, and that hurts all of us.

My primary seller owns an antique shop,where 75% of his business is buying PM jewelry and coin. He buys and sells based on the up-to-the-minute spot price, and ships to his refiner 2-3 time a week. He will melt most anything indiscriminately (so I have to check in about every other day), he will pull out 32D quarters, 1921 mercs, etc.., but otherwise it goes to the refiner. He got caught at the high end with a heavy purchase, the next day the refiner wouldn't quote him a price due to volatility.
Anything he buys now he's using as a hedge against his losses. I asked him about cash flow, thats when he said he'd start selling June 1st if the market didn't take an up swing, but my days of buying at a discount are over until he recoups his loss.

[RR GUY]

Yes, there is much evidence of a price divergence between spot and physical. At the bottom of the market in last weeks plunge, only one dealer was willing to sell me junk at spot, (20X) and that was for dimes and quarters only. Halves, Standing Liberty and Barber's he wanted 25X. He only sold me those coins on the condition that I buy a minimum of a few thousand and pay cash on the spot. I surmised at the time that he was having a cash flow issues, but I learned that he needed the cash to buy a large collection of Morgan's all of which were VF or better that he was able to snag at 25X. Since then, he has raised his price back up to 25X on junk, and anything good that he may have AU and better, well forget it, spot means little to him.

I have also been going down to some silver scrapp shops in the jewelery district. I've been on the hunt for real gems that people have discarded as scrap, that aren't really scrap. I mentioned previously that I found a George III silver candlestick and some other fine silver table articles. These items usually command 100% over spot, and so I was really lucky to grab them at the market price when silver was at 45+. I went down there on Friday to have a look hoping I could pay spot or spot +10%, Forget it, the price for anything in the scrap bins was $43.00/oz, a whopping 20% over spot.

In a previous post it was mentioned that a dealer was scrapping anything but the best coin. This big Melt II, as I have been calling it will in the next few years obliterate the supplies of Morgan, Peace dollars and Barber, Walking Liberty and Franklin halves. I highly reccomend to anyone looking to buy bullion that they consider diversifying from ASEs and those plain old bars and look toward stacking some of the old stuff. I believe that in the next few years we may lose over 100MM Peace and Morgan dollars, and up to 250MM halves.

[68Camaro]

I believe that in the next few years we may lose over 100MM Peace and Morgan dollars, and up to 250MM halves.

I will buy silver dollars when I can get them cheaply, but they usually command a premium, and if I'm going to pay any premium I prefer ASEs. But I still look for them. And I've been buying as many halves as I can stand; though preferring to not buy worn, unless they are discounted.

[Treetop]

In a previous post it was mentioned that a dealer was scrapping anything but the best coin. This big Melt II, as I have been calling it will in the next few years obliterate the supplies of Morgan, Peace dollars and Barber, Walking Liberty and Franklin halves. I highly reccomend to anyone looking to buy bullion that they consider diversifying from ASEs and those plain old bars and look toward stacking some of the old stuff. I believe that in the next few years we may lose over 100MM Peace and Morgan dollars, and up to 250MM halves.

I think you have a great point. especially as spot rises and such things are easier to get for silver value alone.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

All that's fine. But you can guarantee, when silver pops back up to 50.00, they will pull that spot figure out their ass everytime.

Truer words were never said! When spot is rising, the coin shops all gotta have it plus a premium. When it falls, it's no good!

[fusscharles]

Both Numismatic and Melt value? how can you go wrong?