slickeast wrote:Where to next? In the next month will we see it go Up? Down? Sideways?
Frankly, the market and world economy are controlled by forces so large and in conflict that I feel I am having to plan for any possibilty, which makes true planning for anything specific difficult, and fairly ineffective, as the best I can do is spread things several ways, knowing I will be wrong for all but one scenario, and losing efficiency from that.
I expected the drop near 50 and a sideways move for a period of time, but I missed the drop by a day, I didn't factor how the overnight market would play in this, I missed the bottom by 7-8, and I missed the new base by the same 7-8. So some small satisfaction in seeing the overall shape I expected, but I missed by enough to (almost) completely fail to take advantage of it. I did pick up some more physical during the past couple of weeks, and some hopefully cheap paper metal. So, maybe it was helpful in that regard.
I tend to think that actual delivery of physical metal will start driving the market upwards, but on a very low slope for the next 2-4 more months. And I tend to think we will continue to see an extremely volatile market (swings of +/- 10% being the new norm) but with an upward slope that claws back to 40, then 45. Beyond that is too difficult to predict, as world events can completely dominate what happens, but lacking anything black swanish my expectation is we will eventually push past 50 by September. I think the JPMs have clearly learned how to make money out of the volatility, so I don't see an end to that. My focus will be on physical, but I'm watching to see if I can make some with paper on the swings, without getting burned by the elephant in the process.
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