Silver Pricing is Making Me Nervous

[beauanderos]

I don't trust this market anymore. Used to feel like, if not at least in the intermediate term, that long range I was convicted that silver would be the "trade of the decade." Then I read countervailing opinions on sites like FOFOA that gold is a better bet. Who really knows. What I can tell you is that I feel like I would jinx the upward momentum on strongly upsurging days, so all I can do is keep my fingers crossed. I feel like a yappy little chihuahua who boldly nipped the postman once, and took a boot toe to the ribcage and received flying lessons for my efforts. The postman keeps returning (price moving up) but now I never know if I'm about to get kicked again. I wish JPM would pick up a different route!

[Country]

DIVERSIFY... Have some GOLD, Have some SILVER, Have some CASH, ETC... Think LONG-TERM; try to limit SHORT-TERM speculations... Sleep soundly...

[beauanderos]

DIVERSIFY... Have some GOLD, Have some SILVER, Have some CASH, ETC... Think LONG-TERM; try to limit SHORT-TERM speculations... Sleep soundly...

That's pretty much what I'm doing... all I'm saying is that I really don't feel like rejoicing on days like yesterday and today because I keep expecting the bankers without fathers to step in again and push the price back down. It's not "fun" anymore.


edited for clarity of expletive euphemism

[brian0918]

That's what you call the WALL OF WORRY - climb it with me brother!

I'm not even going to think about parting with all my silver until we are anywhere near the inflation-adjusted high, although my exposure may be much less than yours.

[shinnosuke]

DIVERSIFY... Have some GOLD, Have some SILVER, Have some CASH, ETC... Think LONG-TERM; try to limit SHORT-TERM speculations... Sleep soundly...

That's pretty much what I'm doing... all I'm saying is that I really don't feel like rejoicing on days like yesterday and today because I keep expecting the bankers without fathers to step in again and push the price back down. It's not "fun" anymore.


edited for clarity of expletive euphemism

Actually, bankers without fathers is decisively more accurate in the long term. I think some of them will be left without root or branch. (Malachi 4:1) Thanks for making me laugh.

[coppertone]

Despite the pushes down, the forces which will drive silver higher do appear to be both powerful and unrelenting.

[68Camaro]

The need for physical, regardless whether industrial use or buillion use, will ultimately drive the market, and way up.

However, the paper trade pumping is here for now, and after the big drop early in the month I decided to see if I can join in a bit, in a simple straight-forward way (no margin, no shorts). I had bought more PSLV at 16 and 15.25. I just missed my target price two weeks ago to sell during the small second sell-off, so I'm being less greedy this time, set limit sell prices yesterday and sold the first batch today at 17.25 and have the second ready to go at 18, if it makes it. And I still have my previous core position, as long term hold.

Hopefully this will continue to cycle a few more times. I'll be ready to buy again on the dip, and sell again on the subsequent pump up, again, and repeat as many times as JPM has the stamina to do this. As I skim off the profits, I will add to the core position on the dips, but not sell that portion on the rises. Once cycle is 3/4 done. We'll see how this works. If JPM is going to use the market, I'm going to try to use JPM, as a big pump.

[BamaJoe]

Come on beauanderos - you don't strike me as the nervous nellie type.

Yes, we're going to have dips here and there, but long term pm's are just going to keep going up. The .gov isn't going to stop spending as long as they can either borrow or print. Regardless of which party is in power none of them have the balls to do what it would take to fix the problem.

$50 minimum this year per oz if not more.

The rate things are going $100 minimum 2012 - if not sooner.

[theo]

I don't trust this market anymore. Used to feel like, if not at least in the intermediate term, that long range I was convicted that silver would be the "trade of the decade." Then I read countervailing opinions on sites like FOFOA that gold is a better bet. Who really knows. What I can tell you is that I feel like I would jinx the upward momentum on strongly upsurging days, so all I can do is keep my fingers crossed. I feel like a yappy little chihuahua who boldly nipped the postman once, and took a boot toe to the ribcage and received flying lessons for my efforts. The postman keeps returning (price moving up) but now I never know if I'm about to get kicked again. I wish JPM would pick up a different route!

I haven't trusted any of the public markets since 2008, but you have to play the hand you've been dealt.

Seeing such negative analysis about silver on a well-established blog like FOFOA is disquieting. Unfortunately I don't have the two hours needed to read and fully analyze that incredibly long post. However, after skimming it a few times (all I have time for) his arguments seem a little thin. They completely disregard Ted Butler's 20 years of research while asserting that some unnamed advisor could theoretically be cornering the silver market by influencing the silver miners into making certain hedge plays. Their theory is interesting, but seemed to full of "what ifs."

However, the writer really lost me when he likened silver bulls to a heard of bison being hearded over a cliff. It is possible to argue that silver will be outperformed by gold and perhaps other commodities, but anyone who says silver is bad investment with QE3 looming on the horizon is difficult to take seriously.

[Mossy]

However, the writer really lost me when he likened silver bulls to a heard of bison being hearded over a cliff. It is possible to argue that silver will be outperformed by gold and perhaps other commodities, but anyone who says silver is bad investment with QE3 looming on the horizon is difficult to take seriously.

I would argue that silver is not going to be the top performer, but I don't plan to cripple my investments trying to find out what the top performers will be.

[slickeast]

I like to see slow steady movement. Sudden spikes in either direction cause me to take caution. If it spikes up, I don't want to buy as much. If it dips hard, there is none to be found to buy.

People playing the paper can make some nice profits if they time it right.

[daviscfad]

Yeah i am not sure whats up with silver. I know i just wish it would drop so i could buy a lot

[68Camaro]

Yeah i am not sure whats up with silver. I know i just wish it would drop so i could buy a lot

I think it has done "dropped". Possible we might see some more brief dips on paper silver at the comex, but we've had many discussions here about how physical silver isn't that easy to get at those theoretical dip prices, that is going to continue to get tougher and tougher at each further dip, and I don't think the practical price is going to get much cheaper than it is now. I'm buying, still buying, and in fact don't have that much left in reserve now as I'm now operating under the assumption that the current price is "cheap".

[daviscfad]

yea i understand what you are saying and your right it is harder to find when its cheaper, but As it drops and stays consistent the prices come down. I remember when silver hit 20 a few years ago then dropped down below 10 Silver was very hard to get but you eventually it evened out and you could buy ASE or maples for 2 bucks over spot. I know this b.c i bought some

[slickeast]

Nwtm sells new minted for a little over spot. Bought some in 2008 for $10.64/ oz.

Silly me sold at $20.

Thought I was going to buy at $35, but waited too long. Maybe we will see a summer dip.

[Mossy]

Does anyone buy into the Kitco gold or silver pool accounts and take metal at a later date?

[gojomoso]

diversify

but anyways i see silver going up back to mid-40s by the end of the year. But hold for the longterm, if you want short term investments get a ryedale and sort pennies then sell them
the only thing about precious metal holdings is making enough profit when you factor in inflation

[fusscharles]

sounds like you might be over bought. I only feel nervous when I am holding too much and a correction/ bear can put a real dent in my "investment money".

Sell a chunk at this weekend's high prices... hold your tier I, and sleep easier at night.

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

I really like that term "bankers without fathers" Ray! This sort of thing is nothing new. Heck, it has been around for centuries. There is an old latin phrase that is still relevant today.. illigitimus non carporendum.. In the old days the robber barons used to manipulate the stock market.. and everybody knew it. Folks used to ask every day.. "Mr. Morgan, Mr. Morgan.. what's the stock market going to do today?" He would pause, reflect.. look sternly into their eyes.. and pronounce "It will fluctuate" And he was always right.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

DIVERSIFY... Have some GOLD, Have some SILVER, Have some CASH, ETC... Think LONG-TERM; try to limit SHORT-TERM speculations... Sleep soundly...

Agreed. I just picked up over 100 lbs. of lead, and 50 lbs. of #1 copper yesterday for FREE!!

This is my 1,000th post! Whoo hoo!!

[Country]

Nwtm sells new minted for a little over spot. Bought some in 2008 for $10.64/ oz.

Silly me sold at $20.

Thought I was going to buy at $35, but waited too long. Maybe we will see a summer dip.

I still think we are going to see a dip during June when the end of QE2 announcement is officially made by the Fed. That may mark the lowpoint and would be our best buying opportunity this summer. That's what I'm waiting for.

[fusscharles]

Ive recently started really focusing on 50 day moving averages... forget the swings... makes me see the "long term" more clearly.

[Treetop]

Nwtm sells new minted for a little over spot. Bought some in 2008 for $10.64/ oz.

Silly me sold at $20.

Thought I was going to buy at $35, but waited too long. Maybe we will see a summer dip.

I still think we are going to see a dip during June when the end of QE2 announcement is officially made by the Fed. That may mark the lowpoint and would be our best buying opportunity this summer. That's what I'm waiting for.

im not basing this on anything but my gut.... but my gut tells me your right.